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Post by longmonty on Feb 19, 2017 17:46:46 GMT
Copeland: Con 34; Lab 33; LD 18; UKIP 10; Grn 3; oths 2
Stoke-o-T C: Lab 31; LD 21; UKIP 20; Con 18; Grn 2; oths 8
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 19, 2017 19:00:53 GMT
Prediction for Stoke-on-Trent: Labour 34 Lib Dem 25 UKIP 19 Tory 11 Others 11. Copeland - Con 34 Lab 28 Lib Dem 21 UKIP 12 Others 5 (Updated 19/2/17 at 13:50) That's a brave one Zardoz! That really would be #libdemzoomback  |
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Post by Zardoz on Feb 19, 2017 19:32:57 GMT
Prediction for Stoke-on-Trent: Labour 34 Lib Dem 25 UKIP 19 Tory 11 Others 11. Copeland - Con 34 Lab 28 Lib Dem 21 UKIP 12 Others 5 (Updated 19/2/17 at 13:50) That's a brave one Zardoz! That really would be #libdemzoomback True - but I believe the media and most others are basing their assumptions on what happened in the 2015 GE rather than what is happening on the ground. I have not been to Copeland, but I have been to Stoke twice - and I know that we are heading for a good result with a strong and well-liked local candidate. We'll have to wait and see - it wouldn't be the first time that I've ended up with egg on my face! |
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Post by marksenior on Feb 19, 2017 20:37:00 GMT
That's a brave one Zardoz! That really would be #libdemzoomback True - but I believe the media and most others are basing their assumptions on what happened in the 2015 GE rather than what is happening on the ground. I have not been to Copeland, but I have been to Stoke twice - and I know that we are heading for a good result with a strong and well-liked local candidate. We'll have to wait and see - it wouldn't be the first time that I've ended up with egg on my face! With less than a week to go , what are the relative numbers for billboards and posters , previous reports have been of very low numbers but with some Labour and Lib Dem visible |
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Post by Zardoz on Feb 19, 2017 22:22:47 GMT
True - but I believe the media and most others are basing their assumptions on what happened in the 2015 GE rather than what is happening on the ground. I have not been to Copeland, but I have been to Stoke twice - and I know that we are heading for a good result with a strong and well-liked local candidate. We'll have to wait and see - it wouldn't be the first time that I've ended up with egg on my face! With less than a week to go , what are the relative numbers for billboards and posters , previous reports have been of very low numbers but with some Labour and Lib Dem visible I didn't see many boards for anyone, Mark - a few Labour, two or three Lib Dems and maybe one UKIP. But, to be fair, I didn't see a lot of the constituency. Mobility issues limits the amount of delivery that I can do these days. |
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Post by thirdchill on Feb 19, 2017 22:28:33 GMT
Copeland
Lab 44 Con 35 UKIP 10 LD 8 Oth 3
Stoke on Trent Central
Lab 44 UKIP 21 LD 16 Con 13 Oth 6
If I wasn't a conservative supporter and voter I would have put money on labour holding both seats at the odds that have been given pretty much throughout.
Of course I could be wrong but commentators seem to be analysing these by-elections as though they are fighting these seats at a general election.
It is very rare for a governing party to win a seat from the main opposition at a by-election, even with a massive opinion poll lead.
And for a party in opposition to lose a seat to another opposition party, that other party usually has to show signs of being excellently organised throughout the campaign and really get their message through.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 19, 2017 22:49:14 GMT
With less than a week to go , what are the relative numbers for billboards and posters , previous reports have been of very low numbers but with some Labour and Lib Dem visible I didn't see many boards for anyone, Mark - a few Labour, two or three Lib Dems and maybe one UKIP. But, to be fair, I didn't see a lot of the constituency. Mobility issues limits the amount of delivery that I can do these days. My two trips achieved: Labour 6 Lib Dem 2 Con 0 UKIP 1 Anti-UKIP 1 Of the 520 or so properties I delivered it was: Labour 2 UKIP 1 Anti-UKIP 1 |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 20, 2017 8:14:56 GMT
Copeland Lab 44 Con 35 UKIP 10 LD 8 Oth 3 Stoke on Trent Central Lab 44 UKIP 21 LD 16 Con 13 Oth 6 If I wasn't a conservative supporter and voter I would have put money on labour holding both seats at the odds that have been given pretty much throughout. Of course I could be wrong but commentators seem to be analysing these by-elections as though they are fighting these seats at a general election. It is very rare for a governing party to win a seat from the main opposition at a by-election, even with a massive opinion poll lead. And for a party in opposition to lose a seat to another opposition party, that other party usually has to show signs of being excellently organised throughout the campaign and really get their message through. Roughly my prediction too, except maybe swap LD and UKIP in Oatcake Central. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 20, 2017 11:36:35 GMT
Copeland - Con 34 Lab 28 Lib Dem 21 UKIP 12 Others 5 (Updated 19/2/17 at 13:50) This is a ridiculous prediction, quite frankly. Not (necessarily) for the winner, but the idea Lab/Con will get barely 60% between them here is nonsensical. |
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Post by thirdchill on Feb 20, 2017 12:10:46 GMT
Copeland Lab 44 Con 35 UKIP 10 LD 8 Oth 3 Stoke on Trent Central Lab 44 UKIP 21 LD 16 Con 13 Oth 6 If I wasn't a conservative supporter and voter I would have put money on labour holding both seats at the odds that have been given pretty much throughout. Of course I could be wrong but commentators seem to be analysing these by-elections as though they are fighting these seats at a general election. It is very rare for a governing party to win a seat from the main opposition at a by-election, even with a massive opinion poll lead. And for a party in opposition to lose a seat to another opposition party, that other party usually has to show signs of being excellently organised throughout the campaign and really get their message through. Roughly my prediction too, except maybe swap LD and UKIP in Oatcake Central. Although am hoping to be totally wrong in Copeland, of course, and that the conservatives win. |
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Post by Zardoz on Feb 20, 2017 13:17:48 GMT
Copeland - Con 34 Lab 28 Lib Dem 21 UKIP 12 Others 5 (Updated 19/2/17 at 13:50) This is a ridiculous prediction, quite frankly. Not (necessarily) for the winner, but the idea Lab/Con will get barely 60% between them here is nonsensical. You will have the right to say that on Friday - not before! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 20, 2017 15:59:49 GMT
21% would also be a better result than the LibDems and their ancestors have achieved here in the past century.
(by all accounts, they are putting much less into this contest than Stoke too)
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Post by Lifeless on Feb 20, 2017 17:37:48 GMT
Stoke on Trent
Labour - 35%
UKIP - 25%
Conservatives - 22%
Lib Dems - 15%
Others - 3%
Copeland
Conservatives - 35%
Labour - 34%
UKIP - 15%
Lib Dems - 10%
Others - 6%
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Post by AdminSTB on Feb 20, 2017 17:51:09 GMT
Stoke on Trent
Labour - 35% UKIP - 25% Conservatives - 22% Lib Dems - 15% Others - 3% CopelandConservatives - 35% Labour - 34% UKIP - 15% Lib Dems - 10% Others - 6% Welcome to the forum! |
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Post by Lifeless on Feb 20, 2017 17:52:24 GMT
Stoke on Trent
Labour - 35% UKIP - 25% Conservatives - 22% Lib Dems - 15% Others - 3% CopelandConservatives - 35% Labour - 34% UKIP - 15% Lib Dems - 10% Others - 6% Welcome to the forum! Thanks! Glad to be here. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 20, 2017 18:06:45 GMT
Anybody have the electorate figure for S-o-T (C)?
Thanks.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 20, 2017 19:42:21 GMT
Stoke
Labour 8,903 35.0%
Conservative 5,893 23.2%
UKIP 5,090 20.0%
Lib Dem 3,884 15.3%
Green 948 3.7%
Waifs & S 700 the rest
Turn out 40.1%
Recent events may lower t/o and UKIP.
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 20, 2017 20:52:10 GMT
From what I've overheard, 40% would be a truly amazing turnout.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 20, 2017 21:32:17 GMT
Remember it was only 50% at the last GE.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2017 14:22:53 GMT
From what I've overheard, 40% would be a truly amazing turnout. Without postal voting, I doubt if it would exceed 25%. Especially as the weather forecast for Thursday - though it has improved - is for rain. |
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