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Post by iainbhx on Feb 21, 2017 15:02:14 GMT
From what I've overheard, 40% would be a truly amazing turnout. Without postal voting, I doubt if it would exceed 25%. Especially as the weather forecast for Thursday - though it has improved - is for rain. There aren't that many postal votes in Stoke about 10% of the electorate at most, there are far more postals in Copeland. The highest estimate I've heard was 33%, the lowest 15% most were around 25%.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 21, 2017 22:38:31 GMT
I think recent events may depress the turnout but my optimistic 40.1 was based on the assumption that GE 2015 here was very low-key.
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 22, 2017 13:55:42 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 23, 2017 16:04:42 GMT
Stoke Central prediction:
Lab 30% UKIP 28% Con 22% LD 15% Green 3% Oth 2%
New Copeland prediction:
Con 38% Lab 37% UKIP 12% LD 10% Green 2% Others 1%
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robert1
Conservative
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Post by robert1 on Feb 23, 2017 18:27:10 GMT
AJS is forecasting two close results.
As far as I can recall, the last time that happened on one night was when Labour held Grimsby which was a surprise but lost Ashfield which was a great shock (including for the Tory victor). Same again tonight-a surprise hold (though for me it won't be a surprise) and a shock loss?
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 23, 2017 18:34:05 GMT
AJS is forecasting two close results. As far as I can recall, the last time that happened on one night was when Labour held Grimsby which was a surprise but lost Ashfield which was a great shock (including for the Tory victor). Same again tonight-a surprise hold (though for me it won't be a surprise) and a shock loss? I really don't think so. the campaign in Stoke will probably lead to a three car pile up (rather like the ones in the Wacky races) behind Labour with either UKIP, the Tories or lib dems in second. My money would be on the Lib Dems since they just campaign harder. Copeland is the much more likely Tory gain since they have a very solid vote base, it is already a very marginal seat and they can play the nuclear issue for all it is worth. I'm hoping for a narrow labour hold, but...
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 23, 2017 18:39:28 GMT
JohnLoony is predicting an 863 vote Labour majority in Copeland.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 23, 2017 21:03:14 GMT
JohnLoony is predicting an 863 vote Labour majority in Copeland. but his sample was one of his own dreams......
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Post by ideal4radio on Feb 23, 2017 21:53:42 GMT
AJS is forecasting two close results. As far as I can recall, the last time that happened on one night was when Labour held Grimsby which was a surprise but lost Ashfield which was a great shock (including for the Tory victor). Same again tonight-a surprise hold (though for me it won't be a surprise) and a shock loss? I remember these by-elections, from 1977. Grimsby was held albeit narrowly, because the sitting MP Tony Crosland, the then Foreign Secretary had died in Office, having suffered a massive stroke, aged just 58. He'd taken the seat in 1959, with a majority of 101 and had turned it into a relatively safe Labour seat, with majorities of 5 - 8,000 in the elections up to Oct 1974. A WW2 parachute Regiment Officer, he did a 2 week stint on a trawler prior to being elected and used to buy his weeks' supply of cheroots at 6 different Newsagents every week in Grimsby, so the owners could see him and boast of his custom...his majority of 6,982 was defended and Austin Mitchell won by 580 votes, going on to be the Great Grimsby MP for the next 38 years. Ashfield's MP, David Marquand, had a majority of nearly 23,000 & resigned to become an assistant to Britain's newly appointed Commissioner in the EEC, Roy Jenkins. The good folk of Ashfield clearly took a dim view of his deserting strike-ridden Britain for the luxury of a cushy EEC job as the Conservative candidate overturned his majority and won by 264 votes. Interesting history, you may say, but the moral of the story is...the electorate is more likely to elect a Candidate if his/her predecessor has died in situ, rather than resign to take up another more attractive position elsewhere.. This is the case in both Stoke and Copeland but these are not normal times...we await the results with interest...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 22:02:14 GMT
link to compIt has been some 4 years since I have been on twitter and blogging, and so normally at this time of the year I run a just for fun opinion poll. Thanks to work, I have sourced a google chromecast. No good for me, but makes a good prize. So as well as the poll this year I will be holding a prediction competition. The question is how many votes do you think will be cast in the by election? Nearest to the answer wins the chromecast, to enter and win the chromecast you will need to log in with a blogger account or leave a twitter handle. If you are not fussed about winning it yourself but want a go, just leave a guess and if a non traceable prediction wins, then I will donate the chromecast to the local British Heart Foundation charity shop. Thanks for your time, and be very glad if you could vote, predict and share. Stoke 16,666 Copedland 21,500
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 23, 2017 22:09:33 GMT
AJS is forecasting two close results. As far as I can recall, the last time that happened on one night was when Labour held Grimsby which was a surprise but lost Ashfield which was a great shock (including for the Tory victor). Same again tonight-a surprise hold (though for me it won't be a surprise) and a shock loss? I really don't think so. the campaign in Stoke will probably lead to a three car pile up (rather like the ones in the Wacky races) behind Labour with either UKIP, the Tories or lib dems in second. My money would be on the Lib Dems since they just campaign harder. Copeland is the much more likely Tory gain since they have a very solid vote base, it is already a very marginal seat and they can play the nuclear issue for all it is worth. I'm hoping for a narrow labour hold, but... How much money, because you could have made a killing earlier today
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2017 22:11:31 GMT
AJS is forecasting two close results. As far as I can recall, the last time that happened on one night was when Labour held Grimsby which was a surprise but lost Ashfield which was a great shock (including for the Tory victor). Same again tonight-a surprise hold (though for me it won't be a surprise) and a shock loss? I remember these by-elections, from 1977. Grimsby was held albeit narrowly, because the sitting MP Tony Crosland, the then Foreign Secretary had died in Office, having suffered a massive stroke, aged just 58. He'd taken the seat in 1959, with a majority of 101 and had turned it into a relatively safe Labour seat, with majorities of 5 - 8,000 in the elections up to Oct 1974. A WW2 parachute Regiment Officer, he did a 2 week stint on a trawler prior to being elected and used to buy his weeks' supply of cheroots at 6 different Newsagents every week in Grimsby, so the owners could see him and boast of his custom...his majority of 6,982 was defended and Austin Mitchell won by 580 votes, going on to be the Great Grimsby MP for the next 38 years. Ashfield's MP, David Marquand, had a majority of nearly 23,000 & resigned to become an assistant to Britain's newly appointed Commissioner in the EEC, Roy Jenkins. The good folk of Ashfield clearly took a dim view of his deserting strike-ridden Britain for the luxury of a cushy EEC job as the Conservative candidate overturned his majority and won by 264 votes. Interesting history, you may say, but the moral of the story is...the electorate is more likely to elect a Candidate if his/her predecessor has died in situ, rather than resign to take up another more attractive position elsewhere.. This is the case in both Stoke and Copeland but these are not normal times...we await the results with interest... I remember sitting up for that one too and having similar feelings. The by-elections caused by the absence of two cracking Labour politicians in Crosland and Marquand and with an excellent choice at Grimsby. I agree about the local feelings over Marquand but he was a quality politician. It was a damn good red team then.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2017 22:20:23 GMT
link to compIt has been some 4 years since I have been on twitter and blogging, and so normally at this time of the year I run a just for fun opinion poll. Thanks to work, I have sourced a google chromecast. No good for me, but makes a good prize. So as well as the poll this year I will be holding a prediction competition. The question is how many votes do you think will be cast in the by election? Nearest to the answer wins the chromecast, to enter and win the chromecast you will need to log in with a blogger account or leave a twitter handle. If you are not fussed about winning it yourself but want a go, just leave a guess and if a non traceable prediction wins, then I will donate the chromecast to the local British Heart Foundation charity shop. Thanks for your time, and be very glad if you could vote, predict and share. Stoke 16,666 Copedland 21,500 One notes that at Stoke Thy adversary the Devil walketh about, on those Compline-mentary figure that signify The beast!! It is a portent!
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2017 22:22:30 GMT
I really don't think so. the campaign in Stoke will probably lead to a three car pile up (rather like the ones in the Wacky races) behind Labour with either UKIP, the Tories or lib dems in second. My money would be on the Lib Dems since they just campaign harder. Copeland is the much more likely Tory gain since they have a very solid vote base, it is already a very marginal seat and they can play the nuclear issue for all it is worth. I'm hoping for a narrow labour hold, but... How much money, because you could have made a killing earlier today I rather fancy that 10-1 chance!
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Post by ideal4radio on Feb 23, 2017 23:27:59 GMT
I remember these by-elections, from 1977. Grimsby was held albeit narrowly, because the sitting MP Tony Crosland, the then Foreign Secretary had died in Office, having suffered a massive stroke, aged just 58. He'd taken the seat in 1959, with a majority of 101 and had turned it into a relatively safe Labour seat, with majorities of 5 - 8,000 in the elections up to Oct 1974. A WW2 parachute Regiment Officer, he did a 2 week stint on a trawler prior to being elected and used to buy his weeks' supply of cheroots at 6 different Newsagents every week in Grimsby, so the owners could see him and boast of his custom...his majority of 6,982 was defended and Austin Mitchell won by 580 votes, going on to be the Great Grimsby MP for the next 38 years. Ashfield's MP, David Marquand, had a majority of nearly 23,000 & resigned to become an assistant to Britain's newly appointed Commissioner in the EEC, Roy Jenkins. The good folk of Ashfield clearly took a dim view of his deserting strike-ridden Britain for the luxury of a cushy EEC job as the Conservative candidate overturned his majority and won by 264 votes. Interesting history, you may say, but the moral of the story is...the electorate is more likely to elect a Candidate if his/her predecessor has died in situ, rather than resign to take up another more attractive position elsewhere.. This is the case in both Stoke and Copeland but these are not normal times...we await the results with interest... I remember sitting up for that one too and having similar feelings. The by-elections caused by the absence of two cracking Labour politicians in Crosland and Marquand and with an excellent choice at Grimsby. I agree about the local feelings over Marquand but he was a quality politician. It was a damn good red team then. Callaghan had recently become Prime Minister, but they also had Roy Jenkins, Tony Crosland, Dennis Healey, Barbara Castle, Peter Shore and, in addition Michael Foot and Tony Benn on the left of the party. Today's Labour politicians are but pygmies in comparison...
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 23, 2017 23:33:17 GMT
I remember sitting up for that one too and having similar feelings. The by-elections caused by the absence of two cracking Labour politicians in Crosland and Marquand and with an excellent choice at Grimsby. I agree about the local feelings over Marquand but he was a quality politician. It was a damn good red team then. Callaghan had recently become Prime Minister, but they also had Roy Jenkins, Tony Crosland, Dennis Healey, Barbara Castle, Peter Shore and, in addition Michael Foot and Tony Benn on the left of the party. Today's Labour politicians are but pygmies in comparison... Just watching Angela Rayner now on QT and it perfectly illustrates what you say. That said, that crowd you mention did a pretty good job of fucking up the country..
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Post by johnloony on Feb 23, 2017 23:37:33 GMT
JohnLoony is predicting an 863 vote Labour majority in Copeland. No I'm not.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 23, 2017 23:39:01 GMT
The voices in JohnLoony's head are predicting an 863 vote Labour majority in Copeland.
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2017 23:44:58 GMT
Callaghan had recently become Prime Minister, but they also had Roy Jenkins, Tony Crosland, Dennis Healey, Barbara Castle, Peter Shore and, in addition Michael Foot and Tony Benn on the left of the party. Today's Labour politicians are but pygmies in comparison... Just watching Angela Rayner now on QT and it perfectly illustrates what you say. That said, that crowd you mention did a pretty good job of fucking up the country.. I rated Callaghan as a practical politician and as a party politician. He got the poisoned chalice from a failing way past it Wilson. The times were difficult and the natives fractious to a degree. He still managed to make appropriate moves but must have known that their time was up and managing defeat was his legacy for the party. He did that IMO supremely well and held more seats than I had expected to be possible.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 23, 2017 23:51:47 GMT
Just watching Angela Rayner now on QT and it perfectly illustrates what you say. That said, that crowd you mention did a pretty good job of fucking up the country.. I rated Callaghan as a practical politician and as a party politician. He got the poisoned chalice from a failing way past it Wilson. The times were difficult and the natives fractious to a degree. He still managed to make appropriate moves but must have known that their time was up and managing defeat was his legacy for the party. He did that IMO supremely well and held more seats than I had expected to be possible. Yes that's all fair comment. I always had a bit of a soft spot for Jim Callaghan actually - he was the first PM I remember and my impression of him was as an avuncular gent being constantly hectored by some horrible woman (though it's fair to say my recollections are actually of Mike Yarwood and Janet Brown)
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