Stoke on Trent Central / Copeland Prediction competition

[Deleted]

link to comp


It has been some 4 years since I have been on twitter and blogging, and so normally at this time of the year I run a just for fun opinion poll.

Thanks to work, I have sourced a google chromecast. No good for me, but makes a good prize. So as well as the poll this year I will be holding a prediction competition.

The question is how many votes do you think will be cast in the by election?

Nearest to the answer wins the chromecast, to enter and win the chromecast you will need to log in with a blogger account or leave a twitter handle. If you are not fussed about winning it yourself but want a go, just leave a guess and if a non traceable prediction wins, then I will donate the chromecast to the local British Heart Foundation charity shop.

Thanks for your time, and be very glad if you could vote, predict and share.

[AdminSTB]

There'll also be a prediction poll on the other thread, when we have a date for the by-election.

[Deleted]

I would like to thank all those who have taken part in the polling, seems I have more lib dem followers than anything else, if the poll is anything to go by.

link to comp

as Copeland is going to be held on the same day, I have extended the competition to include that as well.

So if you would like to win a chromecast, simply leave a comment on the blog with how many votes you think will be cast in total between the 2 by elections.

Thanks for your time.

[Deleted]

Just on a side note, there doesn't seem to be a lot of optimism on Twitter for Labour holding both or either of the seats, obviously just the thoughts of the internet crowd.

[Pete Whitehead]

Why don't you have an option for 'Labour hold both seats' ?

[Deleted]

Jan 28, 2017 11:31:56 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Why don't you have an option for 'Labour hold both seats' ?

first option is Labour defend both seats on the twitter poll,

The competition I have tried to stay away from who wil win etc, and gone for how many folks do you think will vote?

[Pete Whitehead]

Labour defending both seats isn't an outcome. It's the starting point.

[Deleted]

Jan 28, 2017 12:14:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Labour defending both seats isn't an outcome. It's the starting point.

As I was writing my last post, I could see your point, but then again they would have defended the seats, too late to change to hold though.

[johnloony]

Copeland
Lab 48 Con 30 UKIP 13 LD 7 Oth 2

Stoke on Trent Central
Lab 43 UKIP 26 Con 15 LD 10 Oth 6

[greenhert]

Copeland:

Labour 40, Conservative 38, UKIP 11, Liberal Democrats 4, Green 4, Guest 2, Ivinson 1.

Stoke-on-Trent Central:
Labour 36, UKIP 32.5, Conservative 16, Liberal Democrats 10, Green 3, OMRLP 0.6, BNP 0.6, CPA 0.6, Akram 0.6, Fielding-Morriss 0.1.

[Deleted]

Labour to hold both seats with a reduced share of the vote.

After all the hysterical chatter, it will look like a Corbyn triumph.

[wallington]

I have no real predictions as I tend to do really badly when I do. It probably means I shouldn't even be posting. However I will have a guess at a few things I think will happen next week.

- Labour hold both seats. Only just in Copeland.

- Corbynites will claim its a huge victory and that we should all hail the grand leader as it shows he is on course for a great landslide victory in 2020.

- the Labour right and some on the soft left claim its a huge disaster that shows that Corbyn should be ditched before Labpur MPs are wiped out in 2020 (except in enclaves in major cities).

- in reality it proves neither the 2nd or 3rd points.

- UKIP lose in Stoke on Trent Central, but can hold there head up high with the performance. But get a huff and claim mass voter fraud.

- There is no real evidence to back up point 5, but we all need an excuse.

- The Conservatives just miss out in Copeland and finish an ok third in Stoke.

- The Lib Dems break 10% in Stoke. Social media goes crazy with #libdemfightbacks.

- the Greens perfom better in Copeland than in Stoke. But poorly in general as they are by-elections. Social media goes crazy with calls for #ProgressiveAlliances (i.e. Greens stand down everywhere Ms Lucas isn't standing).

- BNP LOLZ

- the country carries on without anything changing, people read far too much into a couple of by-election results

[Harry Hayfield]

Stoke on Trent Central: Lab 40%, UKIP 20%, Con 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Green 4%, Others 1%
Copeland: Lab 41%, Con 29%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 13%, Green 3%, Others 1%

[johnloony]

Feb 16, 2017 17:29:01 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Stoke on Trent Central: Lab 40%, UKIP 20%, Con 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Green 4%, Others 1%

What about the other 7%?

[finsobruce]

Feb 16, 2017 17:48:11 GMT johnloony said:

Feb 16, 2017 17:29:01 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Stoke on Trent Central: Lab 40%, UKIP 20%, Con 15%, Lib Dem 13%, Green 4%, Others 1%

What about the other 7%?

The silent minority!

[carlton43]

Feb 16, 2017 18:01:15 GMT @jamesdowden said:

Oh let's go for the ultimate mischief prediction:

Copeland: Conservative 40%, UKIP 26%, Labour 25%, Independent Guest 3%, Independent Ivinson 2%, Lib Dem 1.5%, Green 1.5%
Stoke Central: Conservative 32%, UKIP 31%, Labour 29%, Lib Dem 4%, Green 3%, Others 1%

I like that as an idea.  What are the odds on Conservatives taking both of them? If good I might have a modest punt.

Copeland must be the easier win? I see that as a Conservative gain.

Stoke needs a collapse of the Conservative or UKIP vote into the other side. Could there be just enough Labour knocking-copy to achieve that and to engineer their own downfall?  Woden........That would be so sweet.

[Zardoz]

Prediction for Stoke-on-Trent:

Labour 34 Lib Dem 25 UKIP 19 Tory 11 Others 11.


Copeland - Con 34 Lab 28 Lib Dem 21 UKIP 12 Others 5

(Updated 19/2/17 at 13:50)

[marksenior]

My predictions

Copeland Lab 39 Con 34 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 8 Green 3 Others 5
Stoke Lab 35 LDem 22 UKIP 19 Con 13 Green 3 Others 8

[Deleted]

Copeland Cons 37 Lab 33 UKIP 12 Lib Dem 10 green 4 others 4

Stoke Lab 39 Con 20 UKIP 17 Lib Dem 13 Green 3 others 8

Just feel the shambles of UKIP campaign will lead to some potential Conservative switchers either staying blue or just not voting they may even lose a few voters to the BNP but not many.Can see the Lib Dems catching some of the remain vote as they appear to be working this seat hard.

[lancastrian]

Copeland: Lab 38 Con 28 LD 15 UKIP 10 Green 4 others 5
Stoke: Lab 39 LD 21 UKIP 17 Con 13 Green 4 others 6