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Post by adlai52 on Jul 22, 2020 8:50:24 GMT
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Post by MacShimidh on Jul 22, 2020 8:53:45 GMT
I imagine most people who think such a thing are either: a) over-optimistic Republicans or b) Democrats still shell-shocked from 2016. This week’s FiveThirtyEight podcast made a pretty good point about this poll - most Trump supporters aren’t exactly shy about supporting him!
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 22, 2020 9:47:09 GMT
I imagine most people who think such a thing are either: a) over-optimistic Republicans or b) Democrats still shell-shocked from 2016. This week’s FiveThirtyEight podcast made a pretty good point about this poll - most Trump supporters aren’t exactly shy about supporting him! I found that podcast; there was also a column somewhere last week, which I can’t find bit will keep searching, that effectively debunked the theory of shy Trumpians and why applying 2016 weighting may be having the effect of underestimating Biden’s support. Edit: Found it, but if you’ve used your quota of free articles it’s paywalled: www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/07/15/16-syndrome-pennsylvanians-broadly-back-biden-but-worry-about-secret-trump-surge/
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,567
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 22, 2020 10:12:26 GMT
The idea of "shy" right wingers is generally a myth everywhere these days, but people still hang on to it because of some elections in the 1980s and 90s.
As already mentioned, things are different now.
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Post by mrhell on Jul 22, 2020 11:16:52 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 22, 2020 12:27:16 GMT
The Monmouth polling director said that a significant amount of the 35% came from Republicans in Republican areas leading to the possibility of “well everyone I know’s voting for Trump” and precluding the possibility that “everyone I know” isn’t necessarily representative of the wider population.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Jul 22, 2020 15:24:29 GMT
It's a measure of how utterly inept Trump is that he's managed to completely lose this argument on law & order, despite all the pieces lining up for him: I would say the Republican answer to COVID is the antithesis of order.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Jul 23, 2020 17:28:38 GMT
Fun.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 23, 2020 17:37:34 GMT
Scary. Ive been banging on about this for months now. More and more people are lining up in one of 2 camps - wont budge from that position, everything is black or white, there is no centre ground, there is no room for opposing opinions.
As Ive said in other threads, I really do have grave concerns for our democracy (at least in the form we've known it throughout our lifetimes so far)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2020 17:50:02 GMT
Scary. Ive been banging on about this for months now. More and more people are lining up in one of 2 camps - wont budge from that position, everything is black or white, there is no centre ground, there is no room for opposing opinions. As Ive said in other threads, I really do have grave concerns for our democracy (at least in the form we've known it throughout our lifetimes so far) Isn't the "everything black and white" part a function of FPTP and partisan echo chambers?
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 23, 2020 17:58:38 GMT
Ask a stupid question and....
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 23, 2020 18:05:02 GMT
Scary. Ive been banging on about this for months now. More and more people are lining up in one of 2 camps - wont budge from that position, everything is black or white, there is no centre ground, there is no room for opposing opinions. As Ive said in other threads, I really do have grave concerns for our democracy (at least in the form we've known it throughout our lifetimes so far) I don't think this is true in the UK. Johnson is, however ineptly, trying to respond to the political movement that got him elected and Starmer, in turn, is changing somewhat on the issues that make Labour anathema to too many voters. (The Lib Dems are in a continuous downward spiral, but it's not as if there's much popular demand for liberalism, so the shoe still fits.) The US political parties' establishments have little apparent interest in responsive government and when people within them do express it, they find themselves stymied by politicians who prefer polarisation and gridlock.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jul 23, 2020 18:31:08 GMT
Ask a stupid question and.... I think there have been similar polls conducted over here and they haven't produced quite as disturbing results.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 23, 2020 18:48:14 GMT
Ask a stupid question and.... I think there have been similar polls conducted over here and they haven't produced quite as disturbing results. While that is re-assuring in a way, it is still a stupid question.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 23, 2020 19:14:08 GMT
But hasn't the Supreme Court ruled that it's illegal and unconstitutional to fire somebody for their lifestyle? It's an interesting world, self-proclaimed progressives demanding "***k off I don't like you" legislation.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 23, 2020 19:14:15 GMT
I think there have been similar polls conducted over here and they haven't produced quite as disturbing results. While that is re-assuring in a way, it is still a stupid question. This is Frank Luntz here; he doesn’t poll, he runs focus groups, and his crowning glory was being the final guest on The Bill O’Reilly Show on Fox News on election night 2008, and moments before the first polls closed gave a “100% certain” forecast that John McCain would secure a larger popular vote and electoral college victory than even Johnson in 1964....Erm, yeah.
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cj
Socialist
These fragments I have shored against my ruins
Posts: 3,282
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Post by cj on Jul 23, 2020 20:21:42 GMT
Scary. Ive been banging on about this for months now. More and more people are lining up in one of 2 camps - wont budge from that position, everything is black or white, there is no centre ground, there is no room for opposing opinions. As Ive said in other threads, I really do have grave concerns for our democracy (at least in the form we've known it throughout our lifetimes so far) 'our democracy' only ever was a pressure valve, valves can get stuck also they can't effect the amount of heat applied to the pot.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Jul 23, 2020 23:21:52 GMT
Some stunning numbers from new Fox News polls for Biden. They tend to have a very slight Democratic bias (massively different to their news channel), but are seen as a very reputable pollster.
Also out today is a Quinnipiac poll putting Biden 13 points ahead in Florida. Biden - 51%
Trump - 38%
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 24, 2020 0:08:57 GMT
Some stunning numbers from new Fox News polls for Biden. They tend to have a very slight Democratic bias (massively different to their news channel), but are seen as a very reputable pollster.
Also out today is a Quinnipiac poll putting Biden 13 points ahead in Florida. Biden - 51%
Trump - 38%
Quinnipiac also have Biden +1 in Texas, 45-44. And, just for curiosity’s sake, they underestimated Beto O’Rourke against Ted Cruz in 2018, and have a better track record in Texas than in Florida, where in 2018 they had both Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum leading outside the margin of error.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2020 7:00:20 GMT
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