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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jun 12, 2020 16:30:18 GMT
BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election: At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%). I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll. Here's some fascinating figures on candidate favourability, going back to the Eisenhower era. news.gallup.com/poll/197231/trump-clinton-finish-historically-poor-images.aspxYou can see just how cynicism towards politics and politicians has increased over time. Nixon (hardly the most likeable of people) was at 79/16 in his losing bid in 1960. Even McGovern (who lost in just about the biggest landslide on U.S. history) was firmly in positive territory at 55/41.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 12, 2020 19:29:02 GMT
I don't plan on littering this thread with campaign videos but the trolling in this one is top notch
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Post by MacShimidh on Jun 12, 2020 19:45:29 GMT
I don't plan on littering this thread with campaign videos but the trolling in this one is top notch The ads from these guys and the Lincoln Project are savage! Biden would do well to try and hire some of them himself.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 12, 2020 20:25:34 GMT
I don't plan on littering this thread with campaign videos but the trolling in this one is top notch The ads from these guys and the Lincoln Project are savage! Biden would do well to try and hire some of them himself. They do seem much sharper than anything I've heard of from the Dems, though I don't follow US politics closely enough to have seen much. (But the fact that, even so, it is the anti-Trump ads from Republicans that have cut though to me may say something.)
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Post by casualobserver on Jun 13, 2020 5:27:39 GMT
BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election: At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%). I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll. I really enjoyed that recording, Andrew_S, thank you! For the first hour and a half it really looked as if Hillary was edging towards victory. Dreadful case of BBC bias in the guests and interviewees they had and the way many of the reporters commented.
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 13, 2020 6:51:15 GMT
BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election: At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%). I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll. I really enjoyed that recording, Andrew_S , thank you! For the first hour and a half it really looked as if Hillary was edging towards victory. Dreadful case of BBC bias in the guests and interviewees they had and the way many of the reporters commented. I was looking the Florida numbers on, IIRC, the New York Times election website for quite a while that night. I remember looking at the numbers - Trump ahead by ~3% before anything from the panhandle had come in - and wondering why everyone was so certain Clinton would win. The margin of the results in the places Clinton had to do well made me think something wasn't right and Trump's strategy in marginal states was clearly having an impact. The coverage of the election as if it would be a procession confused me at the time and confuses me still given the realistic possibility of a Trump victory in the Electoral College.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2020 7:36:45 GMT
I really enjoyed that recording, Andrew_S , thank you! For the first hour and a half it really looked as if Hillary was edging towards victory. Dreadful case of BBC bias in the guests and interviewees they had and the way many of the reporters commented. I was looking the Florida numbers on, IIRC, the New York Times election website for quite a while that night. I remember looking at the numbers - Trump ahead by ~3% before anything from the panhandle had come in - and wondering why everyone was so certain Clinton would win. The margin of the results in the places Clinton had to do well made me think something wasn't right and Trump's strategy in marginal states was clearly having an impact. The coverage of the election as if it would be a procession confused me at the time and confuses me still given the realistic possibility of a Trump victory in the Electoral College. Their coverage of the Brexit vote was like that. It looked like a Remain win (even from the mood of Farage and IDS when they came on) until Leave started to pick up steam.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 13, 2020 9:07:52 GMT
The weird thing with the Brexit coverage was that nobody seemed to want to interpret anything. When Newcastle was closer than expected, it was surely obvious that Sunderland would be more Leave than predicted. But I don't recall anyone on that show making that suggestion.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 13, 2020 9:11:02 GMT
It is likely that stuff like Farage "conceding" just after polling closed had an impact in that instance, though.
Nor was it obvious early on how low turnout would be in several strong "remain" areas - an under-appreciated factor in the result.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 13, 2020 10:01:40 GMT
It is likely that stuff like Farage "conceding" just after polling closed had an impact in that instance, though. Nor was it obvious early on how low turnout would be in several strong "remain" areas - an under-appreciated factor in the result. Which actually links to Florida 2016, where even the Trump campaign underestimated the turnout in the Panhandle counties. The only other point about Florida is although Trump’s lead was circa 3% even without the Panhandle it was with a tiny fraction of Miami-Dade and Broward counties, which are notoriously slow to report their tallies - in 2018’s midterms it took Broward two hours to move off the 5% reporting mark, hence the uncertainty over both Nelson and Gillum (FWIW Cuyahoga County, the home of Cleveland, and far and away the biggest Democratic vote in Ohio is the same, hence Karl Rove’s 2012 on air meltdown when Fox called Ohio for Obama).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2020 11:42:25 GMT
It is likely that stuff like Farage "conceding" just after polling closed had an impact in that instance, though. Nor was it obvious early on how low turnout would be in several strong "remain" areas - an under-appreciated factor in the result. Nor was it obvious early on that a lot of strongly Remain areas were not quite as strongly Remain as they might have been. For me, the more significant story of that referendum was not that 61% of voters in Sunderland voted Leave, but that 31% of voters in Westminster, Kensington & Chelsea, and Richmond-upon-Thames voted Leave. The dominant narrative has tended to gloss over that aspect, however...
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 13, 2020 11:56:03 GMT
I think one of the issues with the Eu referendum night was that there was still a presumption that areas with important international manufacturing links, the farmers relying on CAP etc, would vote for their presumed economic self-interest. In reality, the country as a whole largely voted on cultural lines which caused places like Sunderland to be a lot more Leave than many expected.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 13, 2020 14:37:54 GMT
In light of his falling polling numbers, Trump has decided to swap Republican attempts to paint Biden as an anarchist for the following cutting-edge analysis: This can't possibly go wrong. Edit: he's getting ratio'ed! The man (not Trump, the protestor) has apparently suffered a life changing brain injury.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 13, 2020 17:47:33 GMT
I don't plan on littering this thread with campaign videos but the trolling in this one is top notch Seriously, what is Lindsey Graham doing backing Trump - all the rumours aside, he has still stood up to Trump over attacks on the late John McCain, so he has some back-bone. Is he so scared of the voters?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 13, 2020 17:57:01 GMT
I don't plan on littering this thread with campaign videos but the trolling in this one is top notch Seriously, what is Lindsey Graham doing backing Trump - all the rumours aside, he has still stood up to Trump over attacks on the late John McCain, so he has some back-bone. Is he so scared of the voters? I suspect so - look at how much more impressively he won his primary on Tuesday compared to 2014 when he was a moderate on immigration rights, etc. The cynic would suggest it’s no coincidence that he became a dyed-in-the-wool Trump supporter after he lost the human shield that was John McCain.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 14, 2020 9:10:40 GMT
Seriously, what is Lindsey Graham doing backing Trump - all the rumours aside, he has still stood up to Trump over attacks on the late John McCain, so he has some back-bone. Is he so scared of the voters? It is either political expediency or Trump / someone pro-Trump has dirt on him.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2020 9:14:57 GMT
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 14, 2020 9:23:05 GMT
I hesitate to mention this and I don't want this to be like those numpties 4 years ago claiming that Clinton was hiding a serious illness but my god did anyone see the footage of Trump yesterday? I appreciate that things like this can be taken out of context but he doesn't look like someone who is well.
First he seemingly can't raise a glass to his mouth just using his right arm
Then he walks down a fairly gentle ramp in a very cautious manner
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2020 9:26:20 GMT
Given the well documented Biden "issues" as well, this is shaping up to be a "fun" campaign Is it too much to hope that come 2024 we will have two candidates that aren't geriatrics?
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Jun 14, 2020 9:47:27 GMT
With his complexion and bottle (strawberry) blond hair do, Trump looks like an ageing walnuts-in-a-condom version of Dick Gephardt these days.
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