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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 8, 2020 11:51:08 GMT
A new CNN/SSRS poll of 1125 registered voters (MoE 3.6%, sampling dates June 2-5) is projecting Biden 55%, Trump 41% nationally. There's still a long road ahead and Democrats shouldn't be arrogant, but the presidential race is starting to move towards landslide territory. I'm moving AK-PRES from safe to likely R. 1125 is hardly a great sample, however you play with the numbers. I tend not to be tempted to see what i want to see. 1125 isn't bad, especially considering how small US poll samples often get.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 8, 2020 11:54:20 GMT
1125 is hardly a great sample, however you play with the numbers. I tend not to be tempted to see what i want to see. 1125 isn't bad, especially considering how small US poll samples often get. It’s just over what both New York Times and Daily Kos regard as a minimum to be credible, which is 1100. Interestingly the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll yesterday only had a sample of 1000.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 8, 2020 12:27:32 GMT
1125 isn't bad, especially considering how small US poll samples often get. It’s just over what both New York Times and Daily Kos regard as a minimum to be credible, which is 1100. Interestingly the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll yesterday only had a sample of 1000. Monmouth polls normally have sample sizes of less than 500 yet their track record over many years has been top notch. You can have a huge sample but if your weighting and/or methodology is poor it won't make much difference.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 8, 2020 12:35:36 GMT
It’s just over what both New York Times and Daily Kos regard as a minimum to be credible, which is 1100. Interestingly the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll yesterday only had a sample of 1000. Monmouth polls normally have sample sizes of less than 500 yet their track record over many years has been top notch. You can have a huge sample but if your weighting and/or methodology is poor it won't make much difference. Agreed, was merely pointing out what, especially the NYT, who are genuinely regarded as credible, have as a benchmark. Interestingly PPP published State polls of Iowa and Texas last week, and their Iowa sample was almost 300 larger than their Texas sample, where logic would suggest the opposite.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jun 9, 2020 8:45:00 GMT
CNN has made this table of approval rating in June of election year for presidents seeking reelection:
74% - Johnson '64 71% - Eisenhower '56 59% - Nixon '72 58% - Clinton '96 55% - Reagan '84 52% - Obama '12 49% - W Bush '04 45% - *Ford '76 38% - Trump '20 38% - *Carter '80 37% - *HW Bush '92
*lost re-election bid
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2020 9:29:06 GMT
It’s just over what both New York Times and Daily Kos regard as a minimum to be credible, which is 1100. Interestingly the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll yesterday only had a sample of 1000. Monmouth polls normally have sample sizes of less than 500 yet their track record over many years has been top notch. You can have a huge sample but if your weighting and/or methodology is poor it won't make much difference. Thanks all for commentary & thoughts - I guess that c.1000 just seems small to me
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2020 11:53:27 GMT
1000 respondents is considered around the minimum size for a reasonably reliable UK poll.
(though *some* constituency surveys last year proved accurate with significantly less)
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Post by curiousliberal on Jun 9, 2020 13:14:43 GMT
In light of his falling polling numbers, Trump has decided to swap Republican attempts to paint Biden as an anarchist for the following cutting-edge analysis: This can't possibly go wrong. Edit: he's getting ratio'ed!
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 9, 2020 20:51:14 GMT
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Post by nelson on Jun 10, 2020 18:38:08 GMT
GOP leaders have agreed to move the party's convention and have tentatively settled on Jacksonville, Florida as the site of the main events.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 12, 2020 2:18:51 GMT
BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election:
At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%).
I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 12, 2020 7:57:14 GMT
GOP leaders have agreed to move the party's convention and have tentatively settled on Jacksonville, Florida as the site of the main events. Strictly speaking the convention is staying in Charlotte where all the formal business include the vote to nominate Donald Trump will take place. However only 336 delegates will be entitled to attend. What is being moved is Donald Trump's acceptance speech.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2020 8:24:22 GMT
BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election: At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%). I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll. I know what you mean Andy. I saw those and thought it was game, set and match for Clinton. The fact that Trump has a higher approval than 2016 coupled with the economic numbers in this video is why I reckon this race remains a coin toss.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2020 8:24:53 GMT
BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election: At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%). I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll. I know what you mean Andy. I saw those and thought it was game, set and match for Clinton. The fact that Trump has a higher approval than 2016 coupled with the 'cutting unemployment' and 'dealing with the economy' poll numbers in this video is why I reckon this race remains a coin toss.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jun 12, 2020 8:46:12 GMT
GOP leaders have agreed to move the party's convention and have tentatively settled on Jacksonville, Florida as the site of the main events. Strictly speaking the convention is staying in Charlotte where all the formal business include the vote to nominate Donald Trump will take place. However only 336 delegates will be entitled to attend. What is being moved is Donald Trump's acceptance speech. Yes, they signed a contract to hold the convention in Charlotte, and are obligated to hold some portion of it in the city. Each state and territory will send 6 delegates but the rest of the 2500+ delegates will vote by proxy, and the 2016 platform will "roll over", so there won't be any policy related votes. "All the formal business" won't really amount to much. Anyway, the speeches are the main events at a GOP convention so it's being perceived as moving the convention, and only nerds will care about where the nomination vote took place. It'll be interesting to see if they move the date of the acceptance speech - or choose to deliberately stick it to the protestors and their supporters. "If Republicans stick to the schedule they previously planned, Trump will deliver his acceptance speech on August 27 in Jacksonville. That day marks the 60th anniversary of the brutal beating of black activists protesting segregation that came to be known as "Ax Handle Saturday," because the nearly 200 white attackers, according to the Florida Historical Society, used ax handles and baseball bats to beat the black demonstrators."
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2020 8:51:20 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2020 11:01:16 GMT
There is always the possibility, given the actual result, that the 2016 exit poll overstated Trump's negatives and understated HRC's.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 12, 2020 11:11:19 GMT
As The Bishop said the exit polls were not great. They seem to have been a bit too Clinton friendly but are also just generally not very high quality (eg; you wouldn’t rely on them for evidence of how specific groups voted). Nonetheless, the more important reason Trump still won with higher unfavourables is that people who disliked both candidates broke comfortably for Trump. A lot of commentators have portrayed this as being caused by Trump being a ‘change’ candidate or the lesser of 2 evils, but it was also simply the fact that people who held unfavourable views of both candidates were very disproportionately Republican/Republican leaning, so should have been expected to break for Trump anyways. The double negatives this year are much more Democratic leaning (see Biden’s crap numbers among the youth and many other heavily Dem subgroups), and are consequently breaking heavily for him over Trump so far.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2020 11:23:41 GMT
There is always the possibility, given the actual result, that the 2016 exit poll overstated Trump's negatives and understated HRC's. The 'hard to reach' are called that for a reason & I would guess that they aren't being picked up this time either.
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 12, 2020 12:58:08 GMT
BBC election night for the 2016 US presidential election: At 4 mins: "Exit poll: 61% of voters see Trump unfavourably". (The figure for Hillary Clinton was 54%). I remember seeing that figure at the time and thinking there was no way Trump would win the election with such a high unfavourable rating in the exit poll. I know what you mean Andy. I saw those and thought it was game, set and match for Clinton. The fact that Trump has a higher approval than 2016 coupled with the 'cutting unemployment' and 'dealing with the economy' poll numbers in this video is why I reckon this race remains a coin toss. If you can bypass the paywall this actually breaks the headline numbers down and helps to understand the current near panic in Trump’s campaign: www.nytimes.com/2020/06/12/us/politics/polls-trump-biden.html
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