timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 7, 2020 10:02:24 GMT
It was also a fairly narrow ruling based - totally incorrectly IMO - on changing the rules so late in the game, so maybe a hint to people like Evers if they’d applied earlier the answer would have been different. There’s another potentially significant lines in the majority ruling also; they point out that the health of poll workers and voters was a late addition to Evers’ submission and so couldn’t be given much weight; again a hint maybe that an application saying “we can’t do in person voting because we can’t get enough volunteers to operate polling places, thereby contravening previous equal access rulings, or without going against the stay home declaration issued by the President (Federal government) that advises us holding a gathering such as queuing for an hour plus to vote places our citizens lives in jeopardy” would have caused us to examine the application from a different perspective and precedent. This is giving SCOTUS way too much credit. There is no reason to believe it would have been anything other than a 5-4 ruling along partisan lines regardless of the circumstances. It was also a fairly narrow ruling based - totally incorrectly IMO - on changing the rules so late in the game, so maybe a hint to people like Evers if they’d applied earlier the answer would have been different. There’s another potentially significant lines in the majority ruling also; they point out that the health of poll workers and voters was a late addition to Evers’ submission and so couldn’t be given much weight; again a hint maybe that an application saying “we can’t do in person voting because we can’t get enough volunteers to operate polling places, thereby contravening previous equal access rulings, or without going against the stay home declaration issued by the President (Federal government) that advises us holding a gathering such as queuing for an hour plus to vote places our citizens lives in jeopardy” would have caused us to examine the application from a different perspective and precedent. This is giving SCOTUS way too much credit. There is no reason to believe it would have been anything other than a 5-4 ruling along partisan lines regardless of the circumstances. Possibly, merely both the precedents they cited related to the lateness of the appeal, and made a point of highlighting how the medical risks had appeared only to be an afterthought, which SCOTUSBlog amongst others were interpreting as Roberts giving himself wiggle room later in the year.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 7, 2020 10:43:42 GMT
Possibly, merely both the precedents they cited related to the lateness of the appeal, and made a point of highlighting how the medical risks had appeared only to be an afterthought, which SCOTUSBlog amongst others were interpreting as Roberts giving himself wiggle room later in the year. Anybody who files a lawsuit that likely ends up before the US Supreme Court needs to first read absolutely everything that John Roberts has ever said or wrote about the subject. He cares about the reputation of the court and of his own legacy and he is smart enough to know that a partisan 5-4 ruling that leads to a huge number of voters being disenfranchised would shatter both of those. His vote on such matters is up for grabs but it needs carefully thought out action and targeted law suits based on established law and precedent, not the make it up as we go along debacle we have seen in Wisconsin over the last week.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 7, 2020 10:45:13 GMT
Well yes, that is the whole bloody point. The only way for the Democrats to break the GOP stranglehold on power is to get a liberal majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Hence the GOP are willing to whatever is necessary to win this election and maintain the 5-2 conservative majority. No need to get grumpy. I am aware you know (nearly) everything about US politics, so comments like that are not aimed at you, just the forum in general. I thought it was well established that grumpy is my default setting. Don't take it personally.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 7, 2020 11:36:24 GMT
Possibly, merely both the precedents they cited related to the lateness of the appeal, and made a point of highlighting how the medical risks had appeared only to be an afterthought, which SCOTUSBlog amongst others were interpreting as Roberts giving himself wiggle room later in the year. Anybody who files a lawsuit that likely ends up before the US Supreme Court needs to first read absolutely everything that John Roberts has ever said or wrote about the subject. He cares about the reputation of the court and of his own legacy and he is smart enough to know that a partisan 5-4 ruling that leads to a huge number of voters being disenfranchised would shatter both of those. His vote on such matters is up for grabs but it needs carefully thought out action and targeted law suits based on established law and precedent, not the make it up as we go along debacle we have seen in Wisconsin over the last week. Yes, in my own clunky way that was partly what I was trying to say; indeed scrolling back through the New York Times coverage their story about the District Judge extending the vote by mail timeframe was headlined “Roberts avoids his nightmare scenario as Judge extends vote by mail”.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 7, 2020 12:25:05 GMT
Rep John Lewis of Georgia has endorsed Biden, pretty much guaranteeing he takes the bulk of the Peach State’s delegates if/when they hold their primary.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 7, 2020 13:52:25 GMT
Rep John Lewis of Georgia has endorsed Biden, pretty much guaranteeing he takes the bulk of the Peach State’s delegates if/when they hold their primary. It was always a question of when and not if. Last summer Lewis strongly defended Biden over the latter's willingness to work with segregationist Senators in the past. This mattered a lot as there is no one alive who comes close to matching Lewis' clout on such matters. Had he gone the other way it would probably have destroyed Biden's campaign.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 7, 2020 14:22:28 GMT
Rep John Lewis of Georgia has endorsed Biden, pretty much guaranteeing he takes the bulk of the Peach State’s delegates if/when they hold their primary. It was always a question of when and not if. Last summer Lewis strongly defended Biden over the latter's willingness to work with segregationist Senators in the past. This mattered a lot as there is no one alive who comes close to matching Lewis' clout on such matters. Had he gone the other way it would probably have destroyed Biden's campaign. And I think the when has been partly dictated by his ongoing treatment for prostate cancer.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 7, 2020 14:27:00 GMT
And I think the when has been partly dictated by his ongoing treatment for prostate cancer. Unfortunately he has stage 4 pancreatic cancer.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 7, 2020 14:42:36 GMT
And I think the when has been partly dictated by his ongoing treatment for prostate cancer. Unfortunately he has stage 4 pancreatic cancer. Ach sorry, the joys of carers, you have to drop everything immediately; I knew he had cancer but didn’t have time to check the location.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 8, 2020 11:53:32 GMT
As of 8PM yesterday there had been just short of 1 million absentee ballots returned and logged in Wisconsin. Thousands more had been returned but not logged and many more will arrive over the coming days. The few polling stations that were open were very busy with some people waiting 4 hours (maybe longer) to vote. At one polling station in Green Bay people were still waiting in line at 11PM (3 hours after the official close of polls). In the circumstances turnout is going to be pretty high.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 8, 2020 12:06:20 GMT
As of 8PM yesterday there had been just short of 1 million absentee ballots returned and logged in Wisconsin. Thousands more had been returned but not logged and many more will arrive over the coming days. The few polling stations that were open were very busy with some people waiting 4 hours (maybe longer) to vote. At one polling station in Green Bay people were still waiting in line at 11PM (3 hours after the official close of polls). In the circumstances turnout is going to be pretty high.They're still counting ballots that arrive by April 13 as long as they were postmarked by April 7, which was apparently not the case prior to the judge's ruling on the matter, so his order wasn't completely overturned. However, some ballots were presumably sent in without the witness requirement while the judge's ruling that one wasn't needed was in place. These will be invalid. As always, but especially so now, the height of turnout will depend on the area, in part due to a shortage of absentee ballots (some requests for ballots dating back as far as March 21 have not been processed). Milwaukee had 5 polling stations open when it usually has 180; Madison had 66 and usually gets 92. The suppression has hit the urban centres much harder than the suburbs and rural areas, and I suspect Democratic turnout will be down even further than one would expect it to be based off these discrepancies because of differing partisan attitudes to coronavirus. Interestingly, turnout is apparently very high in Dane county, which was one of Sanders' best in 2016 and leans heavily Democratic relative to the state. He may choose to drop out after a bad primary result purely for delegate allocation reasons, but neither candidate deserves to get any kind of momentum out of this mess of a primary.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 8, 2020 12:25:47 GMT
As of 8PM yesterday there had been just short of 1 million absentee ballots returned and logged in Wisconsin. Thousands more had been returned but not logged and many more will arrive over the coming days. The few polling stations that were open were very busy with some people waiting 4 hours (maybe longer) to vote. At one polling station in Green Bay people were still waiting in line at 11PM (3 hours after the official close of polls). In the circumstances turnout is going to be pretty high.They're still counting ballots that arrive by April 13 as long as they were postmarked by April 7, which was apparently not the case prior to the judge's ruling on the matter, so his order wasn't completely overturned. However, some ballots were presumably sent in without the witness requirement while the judge's ruling that one wasn't needed was in place. These will be invalid. As always, but especially so now, the height of turnout will depend on the area, in part due to a shortage of absentee ballots (some requests for ballots dating back as far as March 21 have not been processed). Milwaukee had 5 polling stations open when it usually has 180; Madison had 66 and usually gets 92. The suppression has hit the urban centres much harder than the suburbs and rural areas, and I suspect Democratic turnout will be down even further than one would expect it to be based off these discrepancies because of differing partisan attitudes to coronavirus. Interestingly, turnout is apparently very high in Dane county, which was one of Sanders' best in 2016 and leans heavily Democratic relative to the state. He may choose to drop out after a bad primary result purely for delegate allocation reasons, but neither candidate deserves to get any kind of momentum out of this mess of a primary. The return date extension on its own ordered by the District Judge wasn’t challenged so didn’t form part of the SCOTUS ruling, only the application extension, the need for a postmark no later than Election Day and the need for both application and vote to be witnessed were challenged and thrown out by SCOTUS. I just had a quick look at Sanders’ Twitter last night and he seemed to be urging people to go and vote for the State Supreme Court candidate rather than promoting himself, so maybe acknowledging he’s not going to win himself but can still drive turnout to influence downballot races.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 8, 2020 12:38:10 GMT
Just as a recap, here are the next few Democratic primaries / announcement of results
Alaska (15 Delegates): Vote by mail party run primary, deadline 10th April. Results released 11th April.
Wisconsin (84 Delegates): Results of yesterday's primary released 13th April.
Wyoming (14 Delegates): Vote by mail caucus, deadline 17th April. Results released "as soon as possible".
Ohio (136 Delegates): 28th April primary conducted almost exclusively by mail. No in person voting but ballots can be handed in on election day. Results probably on the night.
Kansas (39 Delegates): 2nd May primary conducted exclusively by mail. Results probably on the night.
Guam (7 delegates): 2nd May caucus. Results on the day.
Nebraska (29 Delegates): 12th May primary currently set to go ahead with in person voting. Nebraska is one of only 5 US states that has not issued any type of "stay at home" order.
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 8, 2020 15:24:36 GMT
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 8, 2020 15:45:35 GMT
Good decision for the Democrats.
Fair play to him for putting party before himself.
👽
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 8, 2020 16:06:08 GMT
Good decision for the Democrats. Fair play to him for putting party before himself. 👽
Staying in wasn’t in his interest. Every primary he lost would have diminished his clout.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2020 17:14:33 GMT
Wow... I didn't quite expect it this early to be honest, but obviously the virus has knocked the whole primary season off course, otherwise I'm sure Bernie would've liked to go up to the wire as in 2016, in order to push his policies a bit more. Be interesting to see how Biden performs over the coming months. I was previously rather scornful of the accusations that Biden's faculties are starting to fray, but I'm now starting to get a bit concerned for him to be honest. I think it could be quite uncomfortable to watch, and I cringe thinking about what Trump will say to exploit it.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 8, 2020 17:20:12 GMT
Wow... I didn't quite expect it this early to be honest, but obviously the virus has knocked the whole primary season off course, otherwise I'm sure Bernie would've liked to go up to the wire as in 2016, in order to push his policies a bit more. Be interesting to see how Biden performs over the coming months. I was previously rather scornful of the accusations that Biden's faculties are starting to fray, but I'm now starting to get a bit concerned for him to be honest. I think it could be quite uncomfortable to watch, and I cringe thinking about what Trump will say to exploit it. Much of what is being shared about Biden's appearances are very carefully edited to make him appear out of sorts. Put him up against the meandering bizarreness of President Trump on a live-stage - I wouldn't worry so much.
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Post by dizz on Apr 8, 2020 18:25:37 GMT
Time to reflect on how it was the South Carolina primary that did it. Amazing but now for a tough, close election!
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Apr 8, 2020 19:06:08 GMT
Wow... I didn't quite expect it this early to be honest, but obviously the virus has knocked the whole primary season off course, otherwise I'm sure Bernie would've liked to go up to the wire as in 2016, in order to push his policies a bit more. It would have been counterproductive in these circumstances (just exposed his weakness). His internals for WI are likely quite bad; WY, HI and AL (all contests where Sanders would've had a chance) have been postponed and he needed a couple of wins to have even a small chance of reigniting his campaign; he can't campaign on the ground and the primary gets hardly any media coverage; before WI he could claim that him staying in the race would boost turnout in WI and help win the state SC seat, he's now lost that excuse so the pressure for him to drop out would increase.
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