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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2020 17:52:22 GMT
An incomplete (but interesting) map with the popular vote winner by county (California's results are slightly unreliable as it hasn't finished counting): Just saw this. Great map.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 1, 2020 18:04:20 GMT
Wisconsin Gov Tony Evers has ordered the Wisconsin National Guard to provide as many personal as possible to man polling stations next week. Over 1 million absentee ballots have already been requested which is roughly half the total number of votes in 2016 primary (both R and D). I can’t get the Google Doc to open on my iPhone, but the Twitter thread from Decision Desk HQ’s Director of Elections is tracking the return of early votes:
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 1, 2020 18:13:59 GMT
Wisconsin's first primary poll since March 11 (health warning - sample size of 394 likely voters): Biden - 62% Sanders - 34% Don't know - 2% Refused - 2% This would imply Biden is overperforming his national numbers in Wisconsin, although many national polls now ask who one voted for (for respondents who've already voted) and bake that into VI support, which would hide the pro-Biden trend since SC.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 1, 2020 18:35:43 GMT
West Virginia has moved its primary from May 12 to June 9.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 2, 2020 13:42:17 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 2, 2020 16:31:25 GMT
The Democratic National Convention has been postponed from July 13-16 to August 17-21, just prior to the Republican convention (August 24-27).
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 2, 2020 23:03:11 GMT
The Wisconsin primary has been slightly delayed after a court challenge to 4pm April 13, by which time absentee ballots must be received (there is no longer an earlier deadline by which they must be sent). The deadline by which absentee ballots must be requested was also extended to April 3 (from April 2). The judge rejected the request for longer delays, but ruled that challenges to the election after it was held would be acceptable.
The next primary (and, presumably, the next to have its result announced) will therefore be Alaska's. I would guess it to be a good deal more competitive (on the Democratic side) than Wisconsin.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 3, 2020 13:42:27 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2020 15:01:54 GMT
The Idaho primary (originally set on 19 May) has been moved to to 2 June, but 19 May will remain the deadline to register to vote or request a ballot. Idaho already voted.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 3, 2020 15:06:18 GMT
The Wisconsin primary has been slightly delayed after a court challenge to 4pm April 13, by which time absentee ballots must be received (there is no longer an earlier deadline by which they must be sent). The deadline by which absentee ballots must be requested was also extended to April 3 (from April 2). The judge rejected the request for longer delays, but ruled that challenges to the election after it was held would be acceptable. The next primary (and, presumably, the next to have its result announced) will therefore be Alaska's. I would guess it to be a good deal more competitive (on the Democratic side) than Wisconsin. I think Wisconsin is still going to be treated as the 7th April being election day with votes cast in person, and absentee ballots already received, being counted on the night. Therefore it may well get called on the night even if there are many thousands of ballots still to be returned. Alaska is vote by mail only with the deadline for return being 10th April and results announced the following day. It is a party run event not a public election.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 3, 2020 15:07:22 GMT
The Idaho primary (originally set on 19 May) has been moved to to 2 June, but 19 May will remain the deadline to register to vote or request a ballot. Idaho already voted. The change mentioned by nelson relates to the congressional primaries where frankly there is nothing of interest.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 3, 2020 15:14:28 GMT
The Idaho primary (originally set on 19 May) has been moved to to 2 June, but 19 May will remain the deadline to register to vote or request a ballot. Idaho already voted. For its presidential candidates, but the Democrats haven't picked their Senate nominee (there is only one Republican candidate) and its two congressional districts have both Republican and Democratic primaries. The rest of their downballot primaries are also scheduled then (their State House and State Senate primaries, two state Supreme Court races and a state Appellate Court race, one school board, Ada county's municipal elections and a recall). Presumably, some of these will be competitive, but nothing at the federal level. Edit: all three judges are running unopposed.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 3, 2020 15:24:39 GMT
Biden stumbles verbally on occasion, but these clips are taken out of a much sharper context in a fairly hostile, 24-hour social media environment that fails to reach a lot of the voters he's aiming to win over (he has been running low-key but fairly decent virtual town halls day-to-day, and has been quite clear-eyed about corona since January). IMO he has actually improved as the campaign has gone on (especially w.r.t. the debates, despite apparent fatigue in the earlier ones); you have to remember that the USA often opts for "authentic" (= less polished) candidates. This will be a problem because of his age's aesthetic and all of its potential implications, but less of a problem than it looks like - it's actually more a reflection of a different problem: the generational divide. His GE appeal is formidable, but Biden's edge over other Democratic candidates is built almost entirely on people over 45; even if you set aside MAGA Twitter and Bernie holdouts - i.e. most of social media - you're left (online) with lots of younger moderates who may well have preferred Buttigieg, Yang and perhaps Warren. There are ideological pivots Biden could easily afford to make (including ones which wouldn't necessarily annoy his donors - e.g. pushing for legal cannabis instead of moving it to section II). Even then, though, I wouldn't expect the problem to be completely solved; I believe much of the issue is not in policy, but the campaign's nostalgic tone, which just doesn't resonate with a lot of younger voters who remember recent losses of centrist Democrats and don't feel the Obama admin did enough for them. At least with HRC, a minority of these people could take solace in the "radicalism" of the campaign's social progressivism; shattering the highest glass ceiling did boost enthusiasm beyond stopping Trump. I doubt his problems with younger voters will prove a fatal issue to Biden, but it could be smart to modulate his message as he moves into the GE phase from 'I'm the guy who'll stand up for the Obama admin, and have the experience to restart it' to 'Having been in the Obama admin, I'm the best prepared to learn from its mistakes and produce something a bit more responsive'. The April 26 Puerto Rico primary has been postponed indefinitely (though the Governor still plans to hold it at some point before the convention in August). Georgia's Governor and Lt. Governor are also seeking means to further delay their May 19 (initially March 24) primary; they do not have the authority to automatically push the thing back more than once by over 45 days.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Apr 3, 2020 17:41:57 GMT
The change mentioned by nelson relates to the congressional primaries where frankly there is nothing of interest. Yes, wrong thread. I have moved it.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2020 17:42:32 GMT
Biden stumbles verbally on occasion, but these clips are taken out of a much sharper context in a fairly hostile, 24-hour social media environment that fails to reach a lot of the voters he's aiming to win over (he has been running low-key but fairly decent virtual town halls day-to-day, and has been quite clear-eyed about corona since January). IMO he has actually improved as the campaign has gone on (especially w.r.t. the debates, despite apparent fatigue in the earlier ones); you have to remember that the USA often opts for "authentic" (= less polished) candidates. This will be a problem because of his age's aesthetic and all of its potential implications, but less of a problem than it looks like - it's actually more a reflection of a different problem: the generational divide. His GE appeal is formidable, but Biden's edge over other Democratic candidates is built almost entirely on people over 45; even if you set aside MAGA Twitter and Bernie holdouts - i.e. most of social media - you're left (online) with lots of younger moderates who may well have preferred Buttigieg, Yang and perhaps Warren. There are ideological pivots Biden could easily afford to make (including ones which wouldn't necessarily annoy his donors - e.g. pushing for legal cannabis instead of moving it to section II). Even then, though, I wouldn't expect the problem to be completely solved; I believe much of the issue is not in policy, but the campaign's nostalgic tone, which just doesn't resonate with a lot of younger voters who remember recent losses of centrist Democrats and don't feel the Obama admin did enough for them. At least with HRC, a minority of these people could take solace in the "radicalism" of the campaign's social progressivism; shattering the highest glass ceiling did boost enthusiasm beyond stopping Trump. I doubt his problems with younger voters will prove a fatal issue to Biden, but it could be smart to modulate his message as he moves into the GE phase from 'I'm the guy who'll stand up for the Obama admin, and have the experience to restart it' to 'Having been in the Obama admin, I'm the best prepared to learn from its mistakes and produce something a bit more responsive'. The April 26 Puerto Rico primary has been postponed indefinitely (though the Governor still plans to hold it at some point before the convention in August). Georgia's Governor and Lt. Governor are also seeking means to further delay their May 19 (initially March 24) primary; they do not have the authority to automatically push the thing back more than once by over 45 days. Isn't Biden doing worse with young people than Hillary? I don't see why Biden can't agree to Bernie's policies of 1) signing a Medicare for All Bill if it passes (knowing that the Republicans will likely hold the Senate and the Bill won't make it to his desk) and 2) legalising Marijuana by executive order on day 1 to improve on his numbers with younger voters. A lot of the younger voters that came out for Bernie in Minneapolis may well stay home and allow Trump to soak up Johnson and McMullin voters and flip Minnesota. The Electoral College figures Tim shared show MN in Biden's column but if Pennsylvania is a toss-up, Trump has a shot at winning Minnesota. Hillary actually got a lower vote share in Minnesota than the three rust belt states Trump won.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 3, 2020 18:12:16 GMT
Biden stumbles verbally on occasion, but these clips are taken out of a much sharper context in a fairly hostile, 24-hour social media environment that fails to reach a lot of the voters he's aiming to win over (he has been running low-key but fairly decent virtual town halls day-to-day, and has been quite clear-eyed about corona since January). IMO he has actually improved as the campaign has gone on (especially w.r.t. the debates, despite apparent fatigue in the earlier ones); you have to remember that the USA often opts for "authentic" (= less polished) candidates. This will be a problem because of his age's aesthetic and all of its potential implications, but less of a problem than it looks like - it's actually more a reflection of a different problem: the generational divide. His GE appeal is formidable, but Biden's edge over other Democratic candidates is built almost entirely on people over 45; even if you set aside MAGA Twitter and Bernie holdouts - i.e. most of social media - you're left (online) with lots of younger moderates who may well have preferred Buttigieg, Yang and perhaps Warren. There are ideological pivots Biden could easily afford to make (including ones which wouldn't necessarily annoy his donors - e.g. pushing for legal cannabis instead of moving it to section II). Even then, though, I wouldn't expect the problem to be completely solved; I believe much of the issue is not in policy, but the campaign's nostalgic tone, which just doesn't resonate with a lot of younger voters who remember recent losses of centrist Democrats and don't feel the Obama admin did enough for them. At least with HRC, a minority of these people could take solace in the "radicalism" of the campaign's social progressivism; shattering the highest glass ceiling did boost enthusiasm beyond stopping Trump. I doubt his problems with younger voters will prove a fatal issue to Biden, but it could be smart to modulate his message as he moves into the GE phase from 'I'm the guy who'll stand up for the Obama admin, and have the experience to restart it' to 'Having been in the Obama admin, I'm the best prepared to learn from its mistakes and produce something a bit more responsive'. The April 26 Puerto Rico primary has been postponed indefinitely (though the Governor still plans to hold it at some point before the convention in August). Georgia's Governor and Lt. Governor are also seeking means to further delay their May 19 (initially March 24) primary; they do not have the authority to automatically push the thing back more than once by over 45 days. Isn't Biden doing worse with young people than Hillary?I don't see why Biden can't agree to Bernie's policies of 1) signing a Medicare for All Bill if it passes (knowing that the Republicans will likely hold the Senate and the Bill won't make it to his desk) and 2) legalising Marijuana by executive order on day 1 to improve on his numbers with younger voters. A lot of the younger voters that came out for Bernie in Minneapolis may well stay home and allow Trump to soak up Johnson and McMullin voters and flip Minnesota. The Electoral College figures Tim shared show MN in Biden's column but if Pennsylvania is a toss-up, Trump has a shot at winning Minnesota. Hillary actually got a lower vote share in Minnesota than the three rust belt states Trump won. In the primaries, yes. The large wins he presumably racks up down the line might alter that, but it's almost certain that - unless his campaign changes - there will be a greater generational divide between Biden and non-Biden supporters than there was between Clinton and non-Clinton supporters amongst Democrats). He may well believe endorsing M4A will do him more harm than good in a GE (as opposed to a public option). If he doesn't even believe in it and sees it as an expenditure of political capital without potential for ROI, I can see why he wouldn't. Additionally, his donors would probably throw a fit; I doubt this matters too much with respect to M4A, but regarding some kind of wealth tax (more obvious potential for winning net votes there), I'd bet this is fairly important. I agree his stance on marijuana is a bit puzzling, but he's not taken a hardline stance against shifting to the popular position here. He recently adopted the Warren bankruptcy plan and has gradually tacked (in rhetoric) from 'expanding Obamacare' towards ostensible support for a public option, so it's not as if his campaign is unable to learn.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 3, 2020 18:19:38 GMT
The Wisconsin primary has been slightly delayed after a court challenge to 4pm April 13, by which time absentee ballots must be received (there is no longer an earlier deadline by which they must be sent). The deadline by which absentee ballots must be requested was also extended to April 3 (from April 2). The judge rejected the request for longer delays, but ruled that challenges to the election after it was held would be acceptable. The next primary (and, presumably, the next to have its result announced) will therefore be Alaska's. I would guess it to be a good deal more competitive (on the Democratic side) than Wisconsin. I think Wisconsin is still going to be treated as the 7th April being election day with votes cast in person, and absentee ballots already received, being counted on the night. Therefore it may well get called on the night even if there are many thousands of ballots still to be returned. Alaska is vote by mail only with the deadline for return being 10th April and results announced the following day. It is a party run event not a public election. The Wisconsin Republicans also anticipated this and took this line to court as an argument to stay the order to extent the deadline for absentee ballots. In response, the District Court judge has now ruled that results cannot be released until after the absentee ballot deadline of 4pm, April 13. The WI Republicans are now appealing the extension ruling to the 7th US Circuit Court of Appeals, so the clarity we've just been brought may count for little.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 3, 2020 18:32:26 GMT
I think Wisconsin is still going to be treated as the 7th April being election day with votes cast in person, and absentee ballots already received, being counted on the night. Therefore it may well get called on the night even if there are many thousands of ballots still to be returned. Alaska is vote by mail only with the deadline for return being 10th April and results announced the following day. It is a party run event not a public election. The Wisconsin Republicans also anticipated this and took this line to court as an argument to stay the order to extent the deadline for absentee ballots. In response, the District Court judge has now ruled that results cannot be released until after the absentee ballot deadline of 4pm, April 13. The WI Republicans are now appealing the extension ruling to the 7th US Circuit Court of Appeals, so the clarity we've just been brought may count for little. The 7th Circuit Court of Appeals has 11 full time judges, 9 of whom were appointed by Republican presidents (4 Trump, 3 Reagan, 1 Bush snr and 1 Bush jnr) and just two appointed by Democratic Presidents (1 each Clinton and Obama).
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 3, 2020 19:02:18 GMT
Isn't Biden doing worse with young people than Hillary?I don't see why Biden can't agree to Bernie's policies of 1) signing a Medicare for All Bill if it passes (knowing that the Republicans will likely hold the Senate and the Bill won't make it to his desk) and 2) legalising Marijuana by executive order on day 1 to improve on his numbers with younger voters. A lot of the younger voters that came out for Bernie in Minneapolis may well stay home and allow Trump to soak up Johnson and McMullin voters and flip Minnesota. The Electoral College figures Tim shared show MN in Biden's column but if Pennsylvania is a toss-up, Trump has a shot at winning Minnesota. Hillary actually got a lower vote share in Minnesota than the three rust belt states Trump won. In the primaries, yes. The large wins he presumably racks up down the line might alter that, but it's almost certain that - unless his campaign changes - there will be a greater generational divide between Biden and non-Biden supporters than there was between Clinton and non-Clinton supporters amongst Democrats). He may well believe endorsing M4A will do him more harm than good in a GE (as opposed to a public option). If he doesn't even believe in it and sees it as an expenditure of political capital without potential for ROI, I can see why he wouldn't. Additionally, his donors would probably throw a fit; I doubt this matters too much with respect to M4A, but regarding some kind of wealth tax (more obvious potential for winning net votes there), I'd bet this is fairly important. I agree his stance on marijuana is a bit puzzling, but he's not taken a hardline stance against shifting to the popular position here. He recently adopted the Warren bankruptcy plan and has gradually tacked (in rhetoric) from 'expanding Obamacare' towards ostensible support for a public option, so it's not as if his campaign is unable to learn. All this plus an explanation on the Minnesota and Pennsylvania Electoral College ratings from Sabato’s UVa team: Minnesota had a high third party vote in 2016, perceived as being more at the expense of Clinton than Trump that doesn’t look like being replicated this year as the Greens certainly don’t have a Jill Stein type figure, and the Libertarians (who actually have an appeal amongst rural Democrats) are at best going to get former GOPer Justin Amash, a much more polarising figure than Gary Johnson, ergo third party votes return to their ancestral home in the DFL. Equally the Twin Cities have far less electoral clout Statewide than Philadelphia does in Pennsylvania. Moving to Pennsylvania they were very close to putting it into the same category as Minnesota based largely on mobilising that African American vote in Philadelphia. They have indicated that once Biden is confirmed as the nominee they will likely do just that because of his more obvious appeal to AA voters than Sanders.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 3, 2020 19:19:42 GMT
In the primaries, yes. The large wins he presumably racks up down the line might alter that, but it's almost certain that - unless his campaign changes - there will be a greater generational divide between Biden and non-Biden supporters than there was between Clinton and non-Clinton supporters amongst Democrats). He may well believe endorsing M4A will do him more harm than good in a GE (as opposed to a public option). If he doesn't even believe in it and sees it as an expenditure of political capital without potential for ROI, I can see why he wouldn't. Additionally, his donors would probably throw a fit; I doubt this matters too much with respect to M4A, but regarding some kind of wealth tax (more obvious potential for winning net votes there), I'd bet this is fairly important. I agree his stance on marijuana is a bit puzzling, but he's not taken a hardline stance against shifting to the popular position here. He recently adopted the Warren bankruptcy plan and has gradually tacked (in rhetoric) from 'expanding Obamacare' towards ostensible support for a public option, so it's not as if his campaign is unable to learn. All this plus an explanation on the Minnesota and Pennsylvania Electoral College ratings from Sabato’s UVa team: Minnesota had a high third party vote in 2016, perceived as being more at the expense of Clinton than Trump that doesn’t look like being replicated this year as the Greens certainly don’t have a Jill Stein type figure, and the Libertarians (who actually have an appeal amongst rural Democrats) are at best going to get former GOPer Justin Amash, a much more polarising figure than Gary Johnson, ergo third party votes return to their ancestral home in the DFL. Equally the Twin Cities have far less electoral clout Statewide than Philadelphia does in Pennsylvania. Moving to Pennsylvania they were very close to putting it into the same category as Minnesota based largely on mobilising that African American vote in Philadelphia. They have indicated that once Biden is confirmed as the nominee they will likely do just that because of his more obvious appeal to AA voters than Sanders. In addition to being more polarising, wouldn't Amash's higher profile in Minnesota risk keeping the Libertarian-Democratic swing smaller than it otherwise would be, perhaps in part due to name recognitionl? It borders his home state and there will be a lot of media attention on the midwest this time. I agree MN is lean D and don't believe PA is yet, but that state is rural enough to be trending Republican harder than MI and PA in a presidential year where urban/rural turnout is higher relative to the 'burbs than in the midterms. It's also probable that the Republicans make a serious effort statewide there, which they didn't do last time (the Trump campaign spent $0 there, he made no appearances in the state from September to November in 2016 and it's supposedly a top target for them this time - rightly so, as it could plausibly form part of a path to 270). They're not going to be able to match the ground game of the DFL-machine, but 'not being woefully disorganised' would be a significant step up for the Republicans and could tip them over the line.
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