Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 3, 2020 20:27:37 GMT
Of course if Klobuchar were to be on the ticket that takes MN off the table. While running mates don't always add much in their own state Klobuchar is very popular in Minnesota.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 3, 2020 21:05:22 GMT
All this plus an explanation on the Minnesota and Pennsylvania Electoral College ratings from Sabato’s UVa team: Minnesota had a high third party vote in 2016, perceived as being more at the expense of Clinton than Trump that doesn’t look like being replicated this year as the Greens certainly don’t have a Jill Stein type figure, and the Libertarians (who actually have an appeal amongst rural Democrats) are at best going to get former GOPer Justin Amash, a much more polarising figure than Gary Johnson, ergo third party votes return to their ancestral home in the DFL. Equally the Twin Cities have far less electoral clout Statewide than Philadelphia does in Pennsylvania. Moving to Pennsylvania they were very close to putting it into the same category as Minnesota based largely on mobilising that African American vote in Philadelphia. They have indicated that once Biden is confirmed as the nominee they will likely do just that because of his more obvious appeal to AA voters than Sanders. In addition to being more polarising, wouldn't Amash's higher profile in Minnesota risk keeping the Libertarian-Democratic swing smaller than it otherwise would be, perhaps in part due to name recognitionl? It borders his home state and there will be a lot of media attention on the midwest this time. I agree MN is lean D and don't believe PA is yet, but that state is rural enough to be trending Republican harder than MI and PA in a presidential year where urban/rural turnout is higher relative to the 'burbs than in the midterms. It's also probable that the Republicans make a serious effort statewide there, which they didn't do last time (the Trump campaign spent $0 there, he made no appearances in the state from September to November in 2016 and it's supposedly a top target for them this time - rightly so, as it could plausibly form part of a path to 270). They're not going to be able to match the ground game of the DFL-machine, but 'not being woefully disorganised' would be a significant step up for the Republicans and could tip them over the line. I think Amash’s two problems would be a) as a House member he’s not well known outside his District so there’s little name recognition, and I’m fairly sure Wisconsin separates Michigan from Minnesota; b) more pertinently he’s going to have a hard sell convincing people that he’s anything more than a disgruntled Republican rather than a genuine Libertarian. 2016 was Johnson’s second run as a Libertarian so he did have a bit of credibility of an extended period outside the GOP, and, more than likely a better fundraising operation. Minnesota is definitely becoming less Democratic, but extreme candidates don’t go down well - see the defeat of Jason Lewis and the inability to hold Erik Paulsen’s District in 2018, and Dan Feehan is currently favoured to avenge his defeat to Jim Hagedorn in November.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2020 21:30:54 GMT
In addition to being more polarising, wouldn't Amash's higher profile in Minnesota risk keeping the Libertarian-Democratic swing smaller than it otherwise would be, perhaps in part due to name recognitionl? It borders his home state and there will be a lot of media attention on the midwest this time. I agree MN is lean D and don't believe PA is yet, but that state is rural enough to be trending Republican harder than MI and PA in a presidential year where urban/rural turnout is higher relative to the 'burbs than in the midterms. It's also probable that the Republicans make a serious effort statewide there, which they didn't do last time (the Trump campaign spent $0 there, he made no appearances in the state from September to November in 2016 and it's supposedly a top target for them this time - rightly so, as it could plausibly form part of a path to 270). They're not going to be able to match the ground game of the DFL-machine, but 'not being woefully disorganised' would be a significant step up for the Republicans and could tip them over the line. I think Amash’s two problems would be a) as a House member he’s not well known outside his District so there’s little name recognition, and I’m fairly sure Wisconsin separates Michigan from Minnesota; b) more pertinently he’s going to have a hard sell convincing people that he’s anything more than a disgruntled Republican rather than a genuine Libertarian. 2016 was Johnson’s second run as a Libertarian so he did have a bit of credibility of an extended period outside the GOP, and, more than likely a better fundraising operation. Minnesota is definitely becoming less Democratic, but extreme candidates don’t go down well - see the defeat of Jason Lewis and the inability to hold Erik Paulsen’s District in 2018, and Dan Feehan is currently favoured to avenge his defeat to Jim Hagedorn in November. Do you think the Republicans will flip Minnesota's 7th Congressional District?
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 3, 2020 21:38:20 GMT
I think Amash’s two problems would be a) as a House member he’s not well known outside his District so there’s little name recognition, and I’m fairly sure Wisconsin separates Michigan from Minnesota; b) more pertinently he’s going to have a hard sell convincing people that he’s anything more than a disgruntled Republican rather than a genuine Libertarian. 2016 was Johnson’s second run as a Libertarian so he did have a bit of credibility of an extended period outside the GOP, and, more than likely a better fundraising operation. Minnesota is definitely becoming less Democratic, but extreme candidates don’t go down well - see the defeat of Jason Lewis and the inability to hold Erik Paulsen’s District in 2018, and Dan Feehan is currently favoured to avenge his defeat to Jim Hagedorn in November. Do you think the Republicans will flip Minnesota's 7th Congressional District? They have a good chance, especially as they have finally got a good candidate in former Lt Gov Michelle Fischbach. However only a fool would write off Collin Peterson as he is genuinely popular and his position as Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee is of great value to the district. No other Democrat would have a snow ball in hells chance.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 3, 2020 22:09:27 GMT
Do you think the Republicans will flip Minnesota's 7th Congressional District? They have a good chance, especially as they have finally got a good candidate in former Lt Gov Michelle Fischbach. However only a fool would write off Collin Peterson as he is genuinely popular and his position as Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee is of great value to the district. No other Democrat would have a snow ball in hells chance. I saw a comment underneath an article on the Washington Post site suggesting Fishbach was using this as a “get to know me” run for 2022 when the GOP are convinced Peterson will retire - rumour is he only committed to running this year when he became convinced Sanders wouldn’t be top of the ticket.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 3, 2020 22:15:38 GMT
In addition to being more polarising, wouldn't Amash's higher profile in Minnesota risk keeping the Libertarian-Democratic swing smaller than it otherwise would be, perhaps in part due to name recognitionl? It borders his home state and there will be a lot of media attention on the midwest this time. I agree MN is lean D and don't believe PA is yet, but that state is rural enough to be trending Republican harder than MI and PA in a presidential year where urban/rural turnout is higher relative to the 'burbs than in the midterms. It's also probable that the Republicans make a serious effort statewide there, which they didn't do last time (the Trump campaign spent $0 there, he made no appearances in the state from September to November in 2016 and it's supposedly a top target for them this time - rightly so, as it could plausibly form part of a path to 270). They're not going to be able to match the ground game of the DFL-machine, but 'not being woefully disorganised' would be a significant step up for the Republicans and could tip them over the line. I think Amash’s two problems would be a) as a House member he’s not well known outside his District so there’s little name recognition, and I’m fairly sure Wisconsin separates Michigan from Minnesota; b) more pertinently he’s going to have a hard sell convincing people that he’s anything more than a disgruntled Republican rather than a genuine Libertarian. 2016 was Johnson’s second run as a Libertarian so he did have a bit of credibility of an extended period outside the GOP, and, more than likely a better fundraising operation. Minnesota is definitely becoming less Democratic, but extreme candidates don’t go down well - see the defeat of Jason Lewis and the inability to hold Erik Paulsen’s District in 2018, and Dan Feehan is currently favoured to avenge his defeat to Jim Hagedorn in November. I would have expected him to pick up some name recognition and respect post-impeachment as 'the guy who wasn't a Democrat but voted for it' (presumably boosted by Democrats), but I guess coronavirus has essentially swept away all of the impeachment/Ukraine-related political discussions. Being pedantic, the Great Lakes are a border between MN and MI, but they're probably meaningful enough to erase most of Amash's (presumably minuscule) neighbouring-state bump.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 3, 2020 22:33:03 GMT
They have a good chance, especially as they have finally got a good candidate in former Lt Gov Michelle Fischbach. However only a fool would write off Collin Peterson as he is genuinely popular and his position as Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee is of great value to the district. No other Democrat would have a snow ball in hells chance. I saw a comment underneath an article on the Washington Post site suggesting Fishbach was using this as a “get to know me” run for 2022 when the GOP are convinced Peterson will retire - rumour is he only committed to running this year when he became convinced Sanders wouldn’t be top of the ticket. Minnesota is probably going to lose a seat following the census and expectations are that the 7th will be the district that essentially disappears. The 3 "rural" districts all have about 50,000 voters fewer than the other 5 so there is no way that all three can survive anything close to like they are if a seat is lost. The logical thing to do would be to remove exurban areas in the south of the 8th and the east of the 1st and 7th. That broadly leaves 2 urban seats based on the twin cities, 3 suburban / exurban seats and 2 "rural seats" with the current 7th mostly being split between the existing 1st and 8th. Edit: Alternatively the heavily GOP 6th (mostly exurbs) could be split into the rural seats. Either way Peterson would have no chance.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 4, 2020 18:51:56 GMT
The Wisconsin Republicans also anticipated this and took this line to court as an argument to stay the order to extent the deadline for absentee ballots. In response, the District Court judge has now ruled that results cannot be released until after the absentee ballot deadline of 4pm, April 13. The WI Republicans are now appealing the extension ruling to the 7th US Circuit Court of Appeals, so the clarity we've just been brought may count for little. The 7th Circuit Court of Appeals has 11 full time judges, 9 of whom were appointed by Republican presidents (4 Trump, 3 Reagan, 1 Bush snr and 1 Bush jnr) and just two appointed by Democratic Presidents (1 each Clinton and Obama). The circuit upheld the rulings I've mentioned but struck down the judge's order that witnesses wouldn't be needed for voters using absentee ballots.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 4, 2020 23:17:35 GMT
Update: yesterday, Gov. Evers finally came around to his state Democrat Party's proposal and called for a delay of the primary. His previous stance had been to mail absentee ballots to everyone, but the Republican state legislature's resistance to absentee ballots (driven by a desire to selectively depress turnout for the State Supreme Court election) added to the political pressure, and he pivoted to supporting a delay of the primary to May 26 with ballots being mailed to everyone and a limited period of in-person voting for those who could not use absentee ballots. He called a special session of the state legislature for today, and the Republicans immediately ended it. Having previously said he probably couldn't just order a delay without their consent, he has now vowed to look into any potential avenues to delay the primary. The Republicans, for their part, have taken their case from the appeals court to the US Supreme Court, and are pushing there for a reversal of the acceptance of absentee ballots that arrive between April 7 and April 13.
Joe Rogan has said he'd 'rather vote for Trump' than Biden. There's been a fair amount of outrage on social media, albeit in this instance countered with a slightly disingenuous, "Isn't electability important?" line. His podcast is currently the 3rd largest in the US, so I hope the Biden campaign does not imitate some of its vocal supporters in immediately denouncing Rogan or telling Sanders to disavow his endorsement, as Rogan will have some sway in the GE (in much the same way as they wouldn't instantly disparage a Fox News interviewer they were talking to). To be clear: I think he is a clown and likely couldn't be persuaded to endorse Biden under any circumstances at this point, but not going in on Let's Cancel Rogan: Basket of Deplorables Redux might prevent him becoming so annoyed as to explicitly endorse Trump as opposed to being 'meh' about the election and/or encouraging his listeners to not vote.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Apr 5, 2020 8:32:15 GMT
Former RI governor Lincoln Chafee has dropped out of the Libertarian presidential primary, saying the timing isn't right. So it'll be a "true Libertarian" that gets the nomination rather than an ex-Republican with a bit of name recognition, which means they'll get fewer votes.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 5, 2020 18:45:26 GMT
Former RI governor Lincoln Chafee has dropped out of the Libertarian presidential primary, saying the timing isn't right. So it'll be a "true Libertarian" that gets the nomination rather than an ex-Republican with a bit of name recognition, which means they'll get fewer votes. Chafee was also a Democrat for the latter half of his governorship, though he was never elected as one. W.r.t. the 'rally around the flag' effect mentioned here and elsewhere, there's data for every state on how people consider both his and their governors' responses. A lot of this is presumably down to greater elasticity in gubernatorial elections/state politics presumably allowing for a bigger boost, but there seem to be some state-specific disparities beyond that. DeWine in particular is setting himself up well for 2024, should he want to run then, and Trump looks to be doing a bit worse in Michigan than he should be relative to other swing states - locking horns with certain Governors may well be backfiring.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 5, 2020 18:55:26 GMT
I saw a comment underneath an article on the Washington Post site suggesting Fishbach was using this as a “get to know me” run for 2022 when the GOP are convinced Peterson will retire - rumour is he only committed to running this year when he became convinced Sanders wouldn’t be top of the ticket. Minnesota is probably going to lose a seat following the census and expectations are that the 7th will be the district that essentially disappears. The 3 "rural" districts all have about 50,000 voters fewer than the other 5 so there is no way that all three can survive anything close to like they are if a seat is lost. The logical thing to do would be to remove exurban areas in the south of the 8th and the east of the 1st and 7th. That broadly leaves 2 urban seats based on the twin cities, 3 suburban / exurban seats and 2 "rural seats" with the current 7th mostly being split between the existing 1st and 8th. Edit: Alternatively the heavily GOP 6th (mostly exurbs) could be split into the rural seats. Either way Peterson would have no chance.The 1st and 8th both have a much less Republican lean than Peterson's current district (R+5/+7 vs R+12). He would lose a good deal of his personal vote, but R/D+7 places are not 100% out of reach for a competent candidate who has half an incumbency boost. If there was an unsuccessful Democratic president and rural areas were continuing to trend Republican relative to the rest of the country, then I'd agree, but neither of these things are guaranteed.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 6, 2020 19:52:59 GMT
Having seemingly exhausted all other options, Gov. Evers has ordered the primary + state Supreme Court election to be delayed until June 9 by executive order. The Wisconsin Republicans and national GOP are challenging this in the state Supreme Court.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 6, 2020 20:06:20 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 6, 2020 20:26:42 GMT
Seems a new organisation, they’ve got a C/D rating from 538 but only based on one poll.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 6, 2020 20:28:18 GMT
It's a partisan poll and as such worse than worthless.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 6, 2020 22:12:50 GMT
N.B. the US Supreme Court still hasn't yet ruled on absentee ballots being delivered through April 13 and the result not being declared until then.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 6, 2020 22:31:40 GMT
Politics in Wisconsin now make the US overall look like a haven of cross party co-operation. Ever since Scott Walker was elected Governor, and the subsequent recall election, the bitterness and partisanship seems endless. From an outside perspective it makes for a compelling spectacle.
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Post by curiousliberal on Apr 6, 2020 23:35:40 GMT
A victory for the Republicans at the federal level, too - absentee ballots must now be postmarked by 8pm tomorrow to be counted. Declaration of results will presumably begin immediately after close of polls, and so Wisconsin will hold the next primary after all.
The state's Election Commission has called an emergency session for tonight, but it's not clear what they can attempt to do at this point.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Apr 6, 2020 23:45:03 GMT
A victory for the Republicans at the federal level, too - absentee ballots must now be postmarked by 8pm tomorrow to be counted. Declaration of results will begin immediately after close of polls, and so Wisconsin will be the next primary after all. The state's Election Commission has called an emergency session for tonight, but it's not clear what they can attempt to do at this point. Utter disaster for the Democrats. Based on absentee ballots returned so far the GOP think they are doing very well and with most of the polling stations in Milwaukee closed it is hard to see how the Democrats can make up for that. This has been an absolutely catastrophic screw up by Evers who has probably managed to engineer a scenario that surpasses the wildest dreams of the GOP.
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