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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 26, 2020 19:08:50 GMT
The ground game has been pretty poor, but I wouldn't go so far as to argue that the messaging was shambolic; additionally, the platform is probably better set for a general election than Clinton's due to less emphasis on social (and more on economic) issues. The campaign has avoided a fair few of its rivals' pitfalls by mostly ignoring Twitterati (including centrist Twitterati), and - though this can be thuggish, it's smart for short-term electoral gain - they (and Biden in particular) have sometimes been willing to talk back to cable news instead of answering questions as if they're all fairly put. They've also avoided some politically unnecessary apologies, which unfortunately almost never help a politician these days. Biden himself has said throughout the campaign that he'll respond to Trump's attacks with policy instead of This is Not Who We Are, and the campaign seems to understand that the aforementioned overt appeal to decency is to be mostly limited to the primary. IMO the ground game is also the most interesting of the weaknesses. The party should be much more confident than in 2016 of which states it needs to target in the general election, and will presumably pour resources into the relevant local parties. Do Biden's issues with getting out his supporters in IA/NH/NV perpetuate in PA/MI/WI, or does the party machine sufficiently compensate for his campaign's apparent structural weaknesses? The Michigan primary would suggest the answer’s no. Don’t forget Biden entered the race comparatively late so didn’t have as much chance to tool up in IA, NH and NV, and chose to do a minimum in those states whilst throwing the kitchen sink at SC. On Super Tuesday he won States where he hadn’t run an single advert. However he’s also started to rejig the personnel at the top of his campaign, people who, assuming there’s anything resembling a “normal” election have outstanding track records both nationally and at state level. I assume he won the Michigan primary (and indeed most of his victories) without much of a ground game - whatever he pulled together in a week is not going to compare to the scale of a competent GE ground game, which would need to turn out people who didn't vote in the primary, Republicans who picked the less threatening Democrat, and Sanders voters the Biden campaign may not have reached. Winning the primary with the party deciding (albeit very late) in one's favour will not compensate for genuine GE strengths, and a top priority for Biden's campaign should be doing better than it previously has at identifying and turning out his potential supporters. I agree the rejigging is going to be important here. The party's establishment has passed its first hurdle of competence by proving capable of uniting in favour of a candidate it doesn't hate, albeit very late in the primary. However, it has promoted fairly incompetent figures before; though I think Biden will make smarter choices, it's not impossible he'll pick a lot of subpar operatives for one reason or another (endorsements, previous roles in the Clinton campaign, etc.). His new campaign manager was deputy for Obama's well-run 2012 campaign, but also headed Beto O'Rourke's fairly poor presidential bid (n.b. she did not manage his Senate run).
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 26, 2020 19:13:19 GMT
The 1990s? So whatever he did disbars him from being President, but not Vice-President, otherwise she would have raised this earlier? I don't think you can use the usual "she should have said so earlier" line in this particular case. She has tried to raise the matter multiple times, and also claims to have reported it at the time it happened. Whether it "disbars" Biden from being President is up to the voters (if this gets enough attention for most voters to know about it, which it probably won't). Trump will invite her to the debates, just as he did with Bill Clinton's accusers in 2016.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Mar 26, 2020 19:15:38 GMT
A woman called Tara Reade has accused Joe Biden of cornering her and penetrating her with his fingers while she was working in his office in the 90s. Reade claims to have filed a report at the time and that there are witnesses who can corroborate her story. She contacted Time’s Up, an organization dedicated to helping women accusing prominent men of sexual harassment and assault, but was turned away. What makes that interesting is that Biden's campaign manager Anita Dunn is on Time’s Up’s board. Seems Dunn wasn't just on the board, but that she is the managing director of the PR firm that holds the Time’s Up legal defense fund account.
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Post by adlai52 on Mar 26, 2020 19:18:39 GMT
The 1990s? So whatever he did disbars him from being President, but not Vice-President, otherwise she would have raised this earlier? I don't think you can use the usual "she should have said so earlier" line in this particular case. She has tried to raise the matter multiple times, and also claims to have reported it at the time it happened. Whether it "disbars" Biden from being President is up to the voters (if this gets enough attention for most voters to know about it, which it probably won't). I think the source here is worth some examination. This is being pushed by pro-sanders outlets with a claimant who is a vocal supporter of Sanders. The idea that Obama’s running mate vetting process, two terms as VP and then oppo research from an unusually large democratic field wouldn’t uncover credible allegations until now is a bit of a stretch. Not impossible that this is a credible accusation, but the source and the outlets pushing this both have a partisan axe to grind.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 26, 2020 19:30:29 GMT
I don't think you can use the usual "she should have said so earlier" line in this particular case. She has tried to raise the matter multiple times, and also claims to have reported it at the time it happened. Whether it "disbars" Biden from being President is up to the voters (if this gets enough attention for most voters to know about it, which it probably won't). I think the source here is worth some examination. This is being pushed by pro-sanders outlets with a claimant who is a vocal supporter of Sanders. The idea that Obama’s running mate vetting process, two terms as VP and then oppo research from an unusually large democratic field wouldn’t uncover credible allegations until now is a bit of a stretch. Not impossible that this is a credible accusation, but the source and the outlets pushing this both have a partisan axe to grind. I have already made it clear that I don't rate Biden and wouldn't vote for him. However these constant accusations of past misdemeanor are becoming all too predictable as a way of bringing someone down, to the stage that it will reach a situation where no-one will be believed by one side or the other.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Mar 26, 2020 19:53:52 GMT
I don't think you can use the usual "she should have said so earlier" line in this particular case. She has tried to raise the matter multiple times, and also claims to have reported it at the time it happened. Whether it "disbars" Biden from being President is up to the voters (if this gets enough attention for most voters to know about it, which it probably won't). I think the source here is worth some examination. This is being pushed by pro-sanders outlets with a claimant who is a vocal supporter of Sanders. The idea that Obama’s running mate vetting process, two terms as VP and then oppo research from an unusually large democratic field wouldn’t uncover credible allegations until now is a bit of a stretch. Not impossible that this is a credible accusation, but the source and the outlets pushing this both have a partisan axe to grind. I don't disagree about that, just the "she should have said so earlier" line, which doesn't seem warranted in this case (but let's see if she really did report it back then, I assume some serious journalists will start looking into it at some point). I'm also not sure it matters much whether it's true or not, Biden has a reputation of being "handsy" with women (Lucy Flores and 7-8 other women accused him of it) and it'll be used by the Trump campaign regardless. I'm personally not all that interested in whether it's true, just the potential political impact. Also, Anita Dunn was rumoured to be a likely Chief of Staff if Biden wins and I think this might damage her regardless of whether it hurts Biden. So it's not just about him.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 26, 2020 20:25:56 GMT
I don't think you can use the usual "she should have said so earlier" line in this particular case. She has tried to raise the matter multiple times, and also claims to have reported it at the time it happened. Whether it "disbars" Biden from being President is up to the voters (if this gets enough attention for most voters to know about it, which it probably won't). Trump will invite her to the debates, just as he did with Bill Clinton's accusers in 2016. And as a passionate Sanders supporter she’s going to go? (Actually, there are going to be audiences at the debates?)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 20:36:07 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 20:47:52 GMT
Michigan is the one state out of line, with a clear Dem boost since 2016. It's also 4th on the list of states with most coronvirus cases.
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Mar 26, 2020 20:50:47 GMT
Somewhat interesting that. Harry Reid allegedly still has significant influence within the party and is someone Biden listens to. I've got a large bet on CCM so hopefully it'll be her. On a less egotistical note I also think that she'd be a better pick than Harris (who proved she's a weak campaigner) and Klobuchar. www.mediaite.com/news/poll-two-thirds-expect-coronavirus-impact-to-equal-great-recession-none-expect-everything-will-be-fine/"Former Senate Majority Leader and longtime Nevada powerbroker Harry Reid has in recent weeks told former vice president Joe Biden that he supports Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto as his vice presidential nominee, as part of an effort to give a shot in the arm to his Latino support as the general election comes into view, with Biden telling Reid that she is in his “top three” for the role, three sources confirmed to Mediaite." "Reid has additionally encouraged a new behind the scenes effort to get national Latino advocacy groups to support Cortez Masto for vice president"
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 26, 2020 21:01:15 GMT
3,000,000 claimed welfare nationwide in the past week. Trump tying with Biden in Wisconsin (a state that up to 2016 hadn't voted Republican since 1984) is impressive.
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 26, 2020 21:08:04 GMT
You can't read too much into any one poll, but that would be a very poor performance for Biden in Pennsylvania, since that's where he's from (and much of the state he represents is very closely tied to Philadelphia).
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Post by edgbaston on Mar 26, 2020 21:18:39 GMT
Maybe Biden will have to pull something out of the bag like North Carolina as those numbers look pretty solid for Trump at this stage. Biden's popular vote margin meanwhile will probably be even larger than Clinton's.
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Post by adlai52 on Mar 26, 2020 21:25:16 GMT
C\D rating from FiveThirtyEight, but good numbers for Trump. This far out not sure you can read too much into state polling. That said, Dems are crazy if they’re only betting on the Midwest snapping back to help them win in November. I’d expect GA, NC and AZ to be better for the Dems than Ohio tbh.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 26, 2020 21:40:46 GMT
To be perfectly blunt I don't know why pollsters are even carrying out general election polls at the moment. They are practically meaningless.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 26, 2020 21:47:42 GMT
To be perfectly blunt I don't know why pollsters are even carrying out general election polls at the moment. They are practically meaningless. I've heard President Dukakis strongly agrees with that view.
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 26, 2020 22:59:16 GMT
To be perfectly blunt I don't know why pollsters are even carrying out general election polls at the moment. They are practically meaningless. They're good for comparing the relative strength of candidates in the same primary. Besides that, they have become more predictive than they were before (on average) in 2012 and 2016 due to increased polarisation and less elasticity.
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 26, 2020 23:41:50 GMT
Trump will invite her to the debates, just as he did with Bill Clinton's accusers in 2016. And as a passionate Sanders supporter she’s going to go? (Actually, there are going to be audiences at the debates?) If there are audiences, it's more likely than not. Her blog history suggests she's a bit of a tankie, so I'd guess she is probably 'Bernie or bust'.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 27, 2020 0:09:09 GMT
And as a passionate Sanders supporter she’s going to go? (Actually, there are going to be audiences at the debates?) If there are audiences, it's more likely than not. Her blog history suggests she's a bit of a tankie, so I'd guess she is probably 'Bernie or bust'. Maybe not; according to the original The Intercept report quoted above she only switched to Sanders when Warren withdrew.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 27, 2020 8:42:31 GMT
You can't read too much into any one poll, but that would be a very poor performance for Biden in Pennsylvania, since that's where he's from (and much of the state he represents is very closely tied to Philadelphia). Joe Biden hasn't lived in Pennsylvania for 50 years.
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