Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627 
|
Post by Rural Radical on Nov 17, 2018 20:50:11 GMT
The democrats have a good chance of winning Arizona next time. One that Trump really needs to watch. Expect a closer race in Texas too. Looking at the House results in Minnesota I think Trump has a chance there. Texas and Georgia will be "in play" in 2020. Though I guess that Trump will narrowly win them unless it is a 2008 style win for the democratic candidate. |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,800
|
Post by john07 on Nov 17, 2018 23:00:05 GMT
The Democrats face a choice for 2020. Do they go for the rust belt and try and reclaim the likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio etc or go for the South and South West?
In the long-term the latter strategy is the best. Win Arizona, consolidate Nevada and Colorado and maybe even take Texas. Then there is Florida, North Carolina, not to mention Georgia.
The rust belt strategy offers less in terms of progress but may be the best for 2020. Texas looks more likely for the Democrats in 2024 than 2020. The 2018 results in the rust belt look good for the Democrats.
Either way, the Democrats need a fresh face, maybe someone like Beto O’Rourke?
|
|
Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
|
Post by Izzyeviel on Nov 17, 2018 23:22:36 GMT
President Harris with VP Beto is a ticket I could dig.
We're gonna end up with Stacey Abrams with Doug Jones aren't we?
Now there's an idea - Doug Jones is obviously not going to win reelection, so why not think higher?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2018 23:24:07 GMT
President Harris with VP Beto is a ticket I could dig. We're gonna end up with Stacey Abrams with Doug Jones aren't we? Now there's an idea - Doug Jones is obviously not going to win reelection, so why not think higher? not very inspiring |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2018 23:26:56 GMT
The Democrats face a choice for 2020. Do they go for the rust belt and try and reclaim the likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio etc or go for the South and South West? In the long-term the latter strategy is the best. Win Arizona, consolidate Nevada and Colorado and maybe even take Texas. Then there is Florida, North Carolina, not to mention Georgia. The rust belt strategy offers less in terms of progress but may be the best for 2020. Texas looks more likely for the Democrats in 2024 than 2020. The 2018 results in the rust belt look good for the Democrats. Either way, the Democrats need a fresh face, maybe someone like Beto O’Rourke? the rust belt strategy is the only way theyll win I think. There might be some upsets in the south like Arizona but without Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. They should pack up now |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,800
|
Post by john07 on Nov 17, 2018 23:31:34 GMT
The Democrats face a choice for 2020. Do they go for the rust belt and try and reclaim the likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio etc or go for the South and South West? In the long-term the latter strategy is the best. Win Arizona, consolidate Nevada and Colorado and maybe even take Texas. Then there is Florida, North Carolina, not to mention Georgia. The rust belt strategy offers less in terms of progress but may be the best for 2020. Texas looks more likely for the Democrats in 2024 than 2020. The 2018 results in the rust belt look good for the Democrats. Either way, the Democrats need a fresh face, maybe someone like Beto O’Rourke? the rust belt strategy is the only way theyll win I think. There might be some upsets in the south like Arizona but without Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. They should pack up now The problem is that the rust belt is progressively moving away from the Democrats. I suspect that Indiana is almost gone now. How long before the likes of Ohio follow? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2018 23:40:41 GMT
the rust belt strategy is the only way theyll win I think. There might be some upsets in the south like Arizona but without Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. They should pack up now The problem is that the rust belt is progressively moving away from the Democrats. I suspect that Indiana is almost gone now. How long before the likes of Ohio follow? I think the Democrats have to decide how seriously they want the white house. If they are happy to sit out for another 6 years and build their vote in Arizona, Georgia and Texas then they might get 2 terms in 2024. But if they want to win in 2020 even if it doesn't guarentee a second term they need to look at winning back states Trump won from the Democrats in 2016 |
|
Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
|
Post by Rural Radical on Nov 17, 2018 23:43:53 GMT
The Democrats face a choice for 2020. Do they go for the rust belt and try and reclaim the likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio etc or go for the South and South West? In the long-term the latter strategy is the best. Win Arizona, consolidate Nevada and Colorado and maybe even take Texas. Then there is Florida, North Carolina, not to mention Georgia. The rust belt strategy offers less in terms of progress but may be the best for 2020. Texas looks more likely for the Democrats in 2024 than 2020. The 2018 results in the rust belt look good for the Democrats. Either way, the Democrats need a fresh face, maybe someone like Beto O’Rourke? Option 1: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Then go for Arizona & Texas if the above are locked up. |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,800
|
Post by john07 on Nov 17, 2018 23:46:55 GMT
The problem is that the rust belt is progressively moving away from the Democrats. I suspect that Indiana is almost gone now. How long before the likes of Ohio follow? I think the Democrats have to decide how seriously they want the white house. If they are happy to sit out for another 6 years and build their vote in Arizona, Georgia and Texas then they might get 2 terms in 2024. But if they want to win in 2020 even if it doesn't guarentee a second term they need to look at winning back states Trump won from the Democrats in 2016 That’s pretty well what I would advocate. Go for the rust belt (and Florida) now but play the long game by having a serious try for Texas Georgia and North Carolina. |
|
Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
|
Post by Rural Radical on Nov 17, 2018 23:52:49 GMT
the rust belt strategy is the only way theyll win I think. There might be some upsets in the south like Arizona but without Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. They should pack up now The problem is that the rust belt is progressively moving away from the Democrats. I suspect that Indiana is almost gone now. How long before the likes of Ohio follow? Indiana has never really been a Democrat state st Presidential level. Ohio looks lost at the minute but Pennsylvania and Michigan look like they will vote Democrat in 2020. |
|
mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
|
Post by mondialito on Nov 17, 2018 23:52:59 GMT
The Democrats face a choice for 2020. Do they go for the rust belt and try and reclaim the likes of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio etc or go for the South and South West? In the long-term the latter strategy is the best. Win Arizona, consolidate Nevada and Colorado and maybe even take Texas. Then there is Florida, North Carolina, not to mention Georgia. The rust belt strategy offers less in terms of progress but may be the best for 2020. Texas looks more likely for the Democrats in 2024 than 2020. The 2018 results in the rust belt look good for the Democrats. Either way, the Democrats need a fresh face, maybe someone like Beto O’Rourke? Why not both? If the Dems raise enough money they can target both approaches with the greater focus on the rust belt and Arizona, which should be targeted along with Florida and Iowa. |
|
mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
|
Post by mondialito on Nov 17, 2018 23:58:42 GMT
President Harris with VP Beto is a ticket I could dig. It's a ticket that wouldn't win, nor would Abrams/Jones. Whoever is nominated, there needs to be a moderate/progressive balance on the ticket to pre-empt any 'Bernie or Bust' style nonsense following a primary which will likely bring the arguments about the Democrats' future direction to the fore. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 18, 2018 10:18:06 GMT
The problem is that the rust belt is progressively moving away from the Democrats. I suspect that Indiana is almost gone now. How long before the likes of Ohio follow? Indiana has never really been a Democrat state st Presidential level Indeed, the Dem win there in 2008 by all accounts gobsmacked the Obama campaign as much as everybody else. It was the only state they carried that wasn't seriously targeted. |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,056
|
Post by jamie on Nov 18, 2018 11:02:35 GMT
The 270 strategy has to run through the rust belt. If they are winning Georgia or Texas then the election is already won. The easiest path is hold 2016 states and gain Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Depending on candidate and polling closer to the election, you may swap out Wisconsin for Arizona or North Carolina at a push, but Michigan and Pennsylvania look like just wins.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 12:48:45 GMT
Indiana has never really been a Democrat state st Presidential level Indeed, the Dem win there in 2008 by all accounts gobsmacked the Obama campaign as much as everybody else. It was the only state they carried that wasn't seriously targeted. Something to do with the fact that it borders Obama's home state of Illinois? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 12:50:20 GMT
There doesn't seem much room for the Republicans to pick up Electoral Votes outside of New Hampshire, Minnesota and Maine's at large votes.
Whereas the Democrats could quite easily win the Rust Belt as well as Arizona.
|
|
|
|
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 18, 2018 12:50:54 GMT
The dems will struggle to win in Florida however, in fact I genuinely think they'll do better in Arizona (not that they shouldn't target both states of course).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 12:56:17 GMT
The dems will struggle to win in Florida however, in fact I genuinely think they'll do better in Arizona (not that they shouldn't target both states of course). this is also true |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 12:57:31 GMT
There doesn't seem much room for the Republicans to pick up Electoral Votes outside of New Hampshire, Minnesota and Maine's at large votes. Whereas the Democrats could quite easily win the Rust Belt as well as Arizona. wouldnt go that far. The Dems must be disappointed by house, senate and gubernatorial results in Ohio |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 13:07:16 GMT
There doesn't seem much room for the Republicans to pick up Electoral Votes outside of New Hampshire, Minnesota and Maine's at large votes. Whereas the Democrats could quite easily win the Rust Belt as well as Arizona. wouldnt go that far. The Dems must be disappointed by house, senate and gubernatorial results in Ohio Yeah, and Michigan Senate race was closer than expected. |
|
