Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 18, 2018 13:22:08 GMT
Indiana has never really been a Democrat state st Presidential level Indeed, the Dem win there in 2008 by all accounts gobsmacked the Obama campaign as much as everybody else. It was the only state they carried that wasn't seriously targeted. Obama polled stunningly well in the genepool Republican manufacturing towns in the north east and centre of the state as a result of the economic crisis and the fears for the future of the car industry; this was a consistent pattern across the Midwest and in Indiana was good enough to pull off a shock win. A very useful reminder of how fluid American voting patterns often are. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 18, 2018 17:13:17 GMT
wouldnt go that far. The Dems must be disappointed by house, senate and gubernatorial results in Ohio While disappointing, a universal national swing from 2016 would only have seen Ohio as a toss-up. They actually won the popular vote for the state house. The problem is that Ohio voted for Trump by 9%, which makes it much redder than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It's always been more Republican leaning than many people realise, but it's gotten to the point where Democrats need very good candidates in very good year.s So Brown can be comfortably re-elected to the Senate but the weak gubernatorial nominee can lose. Definitely not a 2020 tipping point state. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 17:23:51 GMT
wouldnt go that far. The Dems must be disappointed by house, senate and gubernatorial results in Ohio While disappointing, a universal national swing from 2016 would only have seen Ohio as a toss-up. They actually won the popular vote for the state house. The problem is that Ohio voted for Trump by 9%, which makes it much redder than Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It's always been more Republican leaning than many people realise, but it's gotten to the point where Democrats need very good candidates in very good year.s So Brown can be comfortably re-elected to the Senate but the weak gubernatorial nominee can lose. Definitely not a 2020 tipping point state. I understand most of what you are saying but disagree with your last sentence. Even if the Dems have the numbers without Ohio really it should be a seat Dems win in 2020. I believe it has a higher number of union members than the national average. It's the kind of place where you might find the 'I've always voted Democrat but...' |
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Post by adlai52 on Nov 18, 2018 18:42:51 GMT
The dems will struggle to win in Florida however, in fact I genuinely think they'll do better in Arizona (not that they shouldn't target both states of course). Trump's approvals have been pretty robust in FL and the over performance in special elections we saw for Dems in the run up to the midterms wasn't seen in the second order races taking place in the state. At the same time many of the retirees relocating to FL have been trending Republican for some time and the yellow dogs (dixiecrats) in the panhandle are now lost to the Democrats. However, against this the state is getting younger and more diverse. Indeed Hillary Clinton did very well in the south of the state and among Cuban-American voters (traditionally Republican). The suburban portions of the state (around Tampa and Miami) have also seen Democrat advances - minoring trends in traditionally republican suburbs across the US. Taking this into account, the Democrats problems in FL seem to be primarily organisational rather than demographic. However, the Florida Democrat Party is also notorious for being behind the curve when it comes to competing state-wide. In the past it has relied on presidential campaigns to boost its statewide infrastructure, most successfully the Obama campaign in 2008/12. Changes to the laws governing voting by former felons should help, but the Democrats will need to build the type of state-wide organisation its lacked since the days of Bob Graham. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 18, 2018 18:49:17 GMT
I understand most of what you are saying but disagree with your last sentence. Even if the Dems have the numbers without Ohio really it should be a seat Dems win in 2020. I believe it has a higher number of union members than the national average. It's the kind of place where you might find the 'I've always voted Democrat but...' Ohio was 11% more Republican than the nation as a whole in 2016. Texas was closer in 2016. I can't see Democrats winning it outside a landslide. Better to focus on flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for the Rust Belt, defend Minnesota and New Hampshire, and maybe make a push for Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. Anything else is political malpractice which could let Trump in again despite losing the popular vote once again. |
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Izzyeviel
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I stayed up for Hartlepools
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Post by Izzyeviel on Nov 18, 2018 21:12:52 GMT
So, if Ohio is no longer the bellweather state... who is?
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Nov 18, 2018 21:36:54 GMT
So, if Ohio is no longer the bellweather state... who is? Possibly Wisconsin |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2018 22:02:49 GMT
I understand most of what you are saying but disagree with your last sentence. Even if the Dems have the numbers without Ohio really it should be a seat Dems win in 2020. I believe it has a higher number of union members than the national average. It's the kind of place where you might find the 'I've always voted Democrat but...' Ohio was 11% more Republican than the nation as a whole in 2016. Texas was closer in 2016. I can't see Democrats winning it outside a landslide. Better to focus on flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for the Rust Belt, defend Minnesota and New Hampshire, and maybe make a push for Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. Anything else is political malpractice which could let Trump in again despite losing the popular vote once again. North Carolina & Florida were poor results for the Dems in the Mid terms as well. Florida was better in the house at least. I'm not suggesting that they ignore the other states in the rust belt or even the sunshine states. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Nov 18, 2018 23:18:40 GMT
Ohio was 11% more Republican than the nation as a whole in 2016. Texas was closer in 2016. I can't see Democrats winning it outside a landslide. Better to focus on flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin for the Rust Belt, defend Minnesota and New Hampshire, and maybe make a push for Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. Anything else is political malpractice which could let Trump in again despite losing the popular vote once again. North Carolina & Florida were poor results for the Dems in the Mid terms as well. Florida was better in the house at least. I'm not suggesting that they ignore the other states in the rust belt or even the sunshine states. Dems did fine in North Carolina - it’s just that the GOP has an extremely effective gerrymander there. Excluding the uncontested 3rd, the Dems had a lead of over 100,000 votes. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Nov 19, 2018 0:02:32 GMT
So, if Ohio is no longer the bellweather state... who is? Maine obviously! As goes Maine so goes ...,.....,.. Vermont! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2018 10:21:08 GMT
Yeah. But Maine's 2nd Congressional District went blue this year.
Still think Maine and New Hampshire could vote for Trump in 2020.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 19, 2018 10:39:44 GMT
Very little chance of Maine doing that I would say, and NH has only gone red once (2000) since the 1980s.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 19, 2018 12:25:51 GMT
Very little chance of Maine doing that I would say, and NH has only gone red once (2000) since the 1980s. New Hampshire's about as far from a Trumpist purple state as you're likely to get so it's only likely to go Rep with a very different candidate from Trump. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2018 12:43:57 GMT
Why do we think this? Trump slashed the Democratic margin of victory in Maine - it was 16% in 2012! Even Bush 43 didn't take Maine's 2nd District.
I don't get why people think Trump is somehow toxic in Maine and New Hampshire - Virginia for sure, but I don't see the argument in ME and NH.
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Nov 19, 2018 13:03:14 GMT
Why do we think this? Trump slashed the Democratic margin of victory in Maine - it was 16% in 2012! Even Bush 43 didn't take Maine's 2nd District. I don't get why people think Trump is somehow toxic in Maine and New Hampshire - Virginia for sure, but I don't see the argument in ME and NH. HIgh turnouts in both NH & ME, I think Trump has maxed his support there and his trade wars are hurting farmers in the rural areas he needs. But it probably depends on the Democrat candidate. |
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Post by adlai52 on Nov 19, 2018 14:15:08 GMT
Why do we think this? Trump slashed the Democratic margin of victory in Maine - it was 16% in 2012! Even Bush 43 didn't take Maine's 2nd District. I don't get why people think Trump is somehow toxic in Maine and New Hampshire - Virginia for sure, but I don't see the argument in ME and NH. Agree with this, the small town, blue collar vote is a big factor in ME and NH. Even more so in ME-02, which is far more rural than the state as a whole. In NH you have the spill over from Massachusetts tilting the state towards the Dems, but there is still enough of a base among ancestral dems, blue-collar towns, rural communities and (more shakily) suburban republicans to swing either to Trump. That said ME as a whole is strongly tilted to the Dems, but Trump remains well placed in ME-02 in 2020 imo. Honestly, the slimness of Golden's win against a pretty lackluster incumbent was pretty surprising but in line with Dem under performance in their rural targets. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2018 15:26:17 GMT
Another question of course is how well the Libertarian will do next time.
Johnson got 5% in Maine and 4% in New Hampshire. He also polled 3.8% in Minnesota.
I'm not saying these voters would flip to Trump (though I d anticipate some squeeze.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 19, 2018 16:21:37 GMT
I saw on Twitter that third parties had the lowest vote share in decades this midterm. Without a toxic candidate like Hillary, and Republicans learning to like or loathe Trump over 4 years, I wouldn't expect anywhere near as many third party voters.
As to the above post, 3rd party voters were shown to favour Clinton over Trump quite considerably, even Libertarian voters. Theyre mostly not closet Republicans.
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
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Post by Izzyeviel on Nov 19, 2018 18:33:23 GMT
Another question of course is how well the Libertarian will do next time. Johnson got 5% in Maine and 4% in New Hampshire. He also polled 3.8% in Minnesota. I'm not saying these voters would flip to Trump (though I d anticipate some squeeze. I've spent time poking around the numbers, It would be a mistake to presume that the libertarian vote was anti-Trump republicans, quite a bit was from Democrats - I suppose they're the ones who smoke weed (and inhale). And same with the Greens - not all are former democrat voters, I remember reading something about 2000, about 25% of green voters favoured Bush winning. |
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colm
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Post by colm on Nov 20, 2018 1:04:26 GMT
Why do we think this? Trump slashed the Democratic margin of victory in Maine - it was 16% in 2012! Even Bush 43 didn't take Maine's 2nd District. I don't get why people think Trump is somehow toxic in Maine and New Hampshire - Virginia for sure, but I don't see the argument in ME and NH. I think NH especially and Maine need to be carefully defended by the democrats. The interesting thing about Maine will be the 2020 senate race with liberals putting in a big efforts to unseat Collins assuming she runs. |
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