|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 24, 2017 2:57:32 GMT
Vote-2012 says 44% Tory vs 56% Labour victory. Close! Only 2 of 131 voters got the right result |
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
|
Post by Khunanup on Feb 24, 2017 3:05:47 GMT
Fucking hell...
Extraordinary result. Size of the majority is unexpected even if the result itself wasn't.
And to cap it all we beat UKIP!
Utterly bonkers...
|
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,907 
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2017 3:10:33 GMT
Really crap prediction by most of you. But so was mine at Stoke!
|
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,907
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2017 3:13:24 GMT
What a swing? Special situation so I suppose one should not read too much into it? Still..........What a 2-years! WOW!
|
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,907
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2017 3:17:37 GMT
Right up to the end there was uncertainty as to the result yet it was very clear-cut. All those commentators and many of you there to campaign and yet no inkling of the nature of the success. Just like the old days.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
|
Post by iain on Feb 24, 2017 3:35:46 GMT
The Tory increase here is the best for a governing party since the Hull North by-election of 1966. Given the size of th e increase, I would not be surprised if that is the only one that beats it (at least post-war).
|
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on Feb 24, 2017 3:41:30 GMT
Well, that's an extraordinary result, there's really no two ways about it.
Here's the declaration (1.05 onwards)
|
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on Feb 24, 2017 3:46:47 GMT
I notice that only 2 people predicted correctly on the poll. wonder who they were. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,825
Member is Online
|
Copeland
Feb 24, 2017 4:12:51 GMT
via mobile
Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 24, 2017 4:12:51 GMT
I notice that only 2 people predicted correctly on the poll. wonder who they were. carlton43 was one of them, i think. |
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on Feb 24, 2017 5:46:41 GMT
I notice that only 2 people predicted correctly on the poll. wonder who they were. carlton43 was one of them, i think. Well whoever it was that predicted a more substantive Tory win than the vast majority thought well done and I hope you placed a bet haha. Don't get me wrong I'm very pleased (I went for the very narrow Tory win) but congrats to those who had the guts to call it  . |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 24, 2017 7:42:20 GMT
I feel sorry for Andrew Gwynne, who copped for running this for Labour. A very good local MP and by all accounts a thoroughly good bloke.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Feb 24, 2017 8:01:21 GMT
Local issues notwithstanding ( The Bishop has mentioned them on here a few times and Tories active in the area have hinted at it), the NHS really isn't the trump card that many in Labour seem to think: the last election was a disaster for Labour with constant banging on about the health service. I notice that Labour's leaflets in Stoke refer to 'our NHS.' Far be it for me to lecture Labour on election strategy- indeed, I hope this tactic continues for many years to come- but, really, a serious political party needs to have something else. It is demonstrable that the 'our NHS' shtick doesn't work. we shall see whether you have your finger on the pulse soon enough... And, lo, it came to pass. What's your view on the NHS as a campaign tactic? |
|
|
|
Post by westmercian on Feb 24, 2017 8:15:57 GMT
I notice that only 2 people predicted correctly on the poll. wonder who they were. I was one! (First post... eek.) |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
|
Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 9:14:21 GMT
we shall see whether you have your finger on the pulse soon enough... And, lo, it came to pass. What's your view on the NHS as a campaign tactic? Did the BABIES WILL DIE line backfire? |
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,716
|
Post by mboy on Feb 24, 2017 9:48:36 GMT
Well it worked in the AV referendum.
|
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
|
Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 9:55:13 GMT
Well it worked in the AV referendum. That's true, but that was from a perspective of "wasting" money rather than finding money out of nowhere. In a period of austerity that could make all the difference. |
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Feb 24, 2017 10:02:56 GMT
I notice that only 2 people predicted correctly on the poll. wonder who they were. I ticked C by over 7.5%, if that turned out to be right. But I did not do so till yesterday. EDIT - on checking, the C lead was actually only 7.0%. So I was wrong. The two people who were right had the lead 5.0% to 7.4%. |
|
Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,690
Member is Online
|
Post by Jack on Feb 24, 2017 10:05:00 GMT
|
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Feb 24, 2017 10:50:10 GMT
Right up to the end there was uncertainty as to the result yet it was very clear-cut. All those commentators and many of you there to campaign and yet no inkling of the nature of the success. Just like the old days. I would guess that some experienced activists on the ground has an idea what was going on but in such cases it is in everyone's interest to claim that it is close. The trailing party don't want to demotivate their supporters while the leading party don't want complacency. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 24, 2017 11:00:01 GMT
Right up to the end there was uncertainty as to the result yet it was very clear-cut. All those commentators and many of you there to campaign and yet no inkling of the nature of the success. Just like the old days. I would guess that some experienced activists on the ground has an idea what was going on but in such cases it is in everyone's interest to claim that it is close. The trailing party don't want to demotivate their supporters while the leading party don't want complacency. I think the scale of the Tory win, if not the fact they won, came as a surprise to many in both camps tbh. Congratulations to Trudy Harrison anyway, now you have to live up to all the promises that were made during the campaign. And also the fact this constituency is going to be dismembered in a few years if - as I expect to happen - the forthcoming boundary changes get passed. (this would also have been an issue for Troughton had she won, of course - but as she is older maybe not so much of one) |
|
.
