Copeland

[Deleted]

Feb 22, 2017 23:34:36 GMT @benjl said:

Feb 22, 2017 22:23:45 GMT Andrew_S said:

How likely is it that the count will be delayed until the next morning/afternoon with the weather forecast as it is?

Anyone know what time the results may come in, might save me watching any more of the Paisly tangerine than I have to.

According to Matt Singh (Number Cruncher) -

Stoke-on-Trent City Council has estimated their declaration time as between 3am and 4am (the reliability of these ETAs can vary). Copeland Council doesn't seem to have published an estimate – that may be related to concerns about recovering ballot boxes from some very exposed, rural locations in the midst of storm Dora. So it could potentially be a very, very long night.

I won't be staying up!

[Andrew_S]

"As a journalist covering the north of England, I have visited many places utterly fed up with Westminster, but none quite so fed up as the people of Copeland. That feeling of detachment is acute."

www.itv.com/news/border/2017-02-22/copeland-a-by-election-which-has-further-damaged-peoples-faith-in-politics/

[Rutlander]

It's Doris Day - whatever will be, will be.

[Chris Whiteside]

This is the one post I will make today as I will be far too busy running around trying to get the vote out. But I am just having a quick cup of tea after telling for the Conservatives from 7am to 9am at a polling station serving four polling districts, the area covered including a large part of the highly marginal council ward where I used to be a councillor.

I was astonished to find no Labour teller. I hear from friends that it is the same at other polling stations including other marginal areas and at least one safe Labour area. In an election which will be determined by turnout this is very surprising.

The number of voters through the door was steady but not enormous, suggesting the sort of turnout you would regard as fairly good in a local government election, but well below general election levels.

Make of this what you will.

[right]

Guido says a Tory victory is the view in SW1. Is that true or is it just Guido?

Top marks to the Labour expectations management team.

[right]

Feb 23, 2017 9:31:23 GMT Chris Whiteside said:

This is the one post I will make today as I will be far too busy running around trying to get the vote out. But I am just having a quick cup of tea after telling for the Conservatives from 7am to 9am at a polling station serving four polling districts, the area covered including a large part of the highly marginal council ward where I used to be a councillor.

I was astonished to find no Labour teller. I hear from friends that it is the same at other polling stations including other marginal areas and at least one safe Labour area. In an election which will be determined by turnout this is very surprising.

The number of voters through the door was steady but not enormous, suggesting the sort of turnout you would regard as fairly good in a local government election, but well below general election levels.

Make of this what you will.

No teller?

I always get the impression that Tories are keenest on telling.

[Antiochian]

Feb 23, 2017 9:35:12 GMT right said:

Feb 23, 2017 9:31:23 GMT Chris Whiteside said:

This is the one post I will make today as I will be far too busy running around trying to get the vote out. But I am just having a quick cup of tea after telling for the Conservatives from 7am to 9am at a polling station serving four polling districts, the area covered including a large part of the highly marginal council ward where I used to be a councillor.

I was astonished to find no Labour teller. I hear from friends that it is the same at other polling stations including other marginal areas and at least one safe Labour area. In an election which will be determined by turnout this is very surprising.

The number of voters through the door was steady but not enormous, suggesting the sort of turnout you would regard as fairly good in a local government election, but well below general election levels.

Make of this what you will.

No teller?

I always get the impression that Tories are keenest on telling.

I love telling.. its the closest thing one can get away with here to the Australian practice of handing out "How to vote" cards.. 

[right]

Feb 23, 2017 10:44:08 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Feb 23, 2017 9:35:12 GMT right said:

No teller?

I always get the impression that Tories are keenest on telling.

But if you want to know if your non-postal vote pledges have turned out, you have to do it

It's a mystery why campaigns don't do it, unless manpower is down. But it's certainly been the case that in the last fifteen years that Labour have been less keen on it, particularly noticeable as they usually have more people on the ground.

I've always assumed I was missing something, and not the Labour machine.

[The Bishop]

I can confirm that telling was a big thing for us into the 1990s, but seems rather less prominent now.

As already said, we don't lack the numbers to do it (locally or more generally) so it seems to be a deliberate change in approach.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Also the admin involved in checking numbers, and crossing them off knocking-up sheets is not really worth it - might as well knock up every Labour promise.

[Deleted]

The local LibDems here had one year of telling with an IPad linked to a central computer to mark off voters from EARS in real time.

It worked.....but in the long run wasn't practical.

[Deleted]

Feb 23, 2017 11:21:40 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Also the admin involved in checking numbers, and crossing them off knocking-up sheets is not really worth it - might as well knock up every Labour promise.

We in the Conservative Party have lots of people who are keen to help but are too old to knock up.

[Deleted]

Feb 23, 2017 11:17:24 GMT The Bishop said:

I can confirm that telling was a big thing for us into the 1990s, but seems rather less prominent now.

As already said, we don't lack the numbers to do it (locally or more generally) so it seems to be a deliberate change in approach.

In the general election in Battersea you guys knocked on literally every door. Nit every pledge. Every door.

[The Bishop]

Didn't do us that much good tbph

[iainbhx]

Feb 23, 2017 11:25:02 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

The local LibDems here had one year of telling with an IPad linked to a central computer to mark off voters from EARS in real time.

It worked.....but in the long run wasn't practical.

It works very well in Connect now.

[right]

Feb 23, 2017 11:21:40 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Also the admin involved in checking numbers, and crossing them off knocking-up sheets is not really worth it - might as well knock up every Labour promise.

Is that because the average Labour pledge is less likely to turn up on their own steam than the average Conservative pledge?

[gwynthegriff]

Feb 23, 2017 11:21:40 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Also the admin involved in checking numbers, and crossing them off knocking-up sheets is not really worth it - might as well knock up every Labour promise.

You simply get someone to do it who can't help otherwise - great job for the mobility impaired members.

[finsobruce]

Feb 23, 2017 13:16:21 GMT right said:

Feb 23, 2017 11:21:40 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Also the admin involved in checking numbers, and crossing them off knocking-up sheets is not really worth it - might as well knock up every Labour promise.

Is that because the average Labour pledge is less likely to turn up on their own steam than the average Conservative pledge?

Nobody knows of course, but that is always trotted out at election time..... Empirical evidence would be hard to come by.

[right]

Feb 23, 2017 13:29:44 GMT finsobruce said:

Feb 23, 2017 13:16:21 GMT right said:

Is that because the average Labour pledge is less likely to turn up on their own steam than the average Conservative pledge?

Nobody knows of course, but that is always trotted out at election time..... Empirical evidence would be hard to come by.

It's a common belief, and it wouldn't be a surprise as Tory supporters tend to come from demographics more likely to vote.

Would the frequent opinion poll gaps between Tory support and eventual Tory support be partly due to this?

[The Bishop]

Feb 23, 2017 13:35:04 GMT right said:

Feb 23, 2017 13:29:44 GMT finsobruce said:

Nobody knows of course, but that is always trotted out at election time..... Empirical evidence would be hard to come by.

It's a common belief, and it wouldn't be a surprise as Tory supporters tend to come from demographics more likely to vote.

Would the frequent opinion poll gaps between Tory support and eventual Tory support be partly due to this?

I know what you mean there, but its a bit confusing

This maybe is also part of the other long standing belief that high turnouts favour Labour (wasn't really the case in 1992 though?)

Certainly one reason for the polls being "wrong" at the last GE was overestimating the eventual turnout (especially in Labour friendly demographics)