Copeland

[right]

Jan 11, 2017 12:36:26 GMT carlton43 said:

Now 51 plays 24!!! The tribal vote has really come out for Labour. I do so hope that there will be a lot of disappointed people the morning after. I still think there well may be.

Not sure this is the tribal vote, as raising expectations for Labour is not the best tribal behaviour.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jan 11, 2017 12:33:11 GMT The Bishop said:

Sure, I agree that it can be a bit of a "comfort blanket" for us. That's not the case here though, health is very much a live issue.

The comfort blanket approach was what I was referring to.

I've seen it even in Winchester, when there was a sudden rumoured closure of part of the hospital, which never happened and mysteriously only was mentioned in local Labour leaflets. Not to say that other parties don't try the same scam, but the NHS does tend to be the go-to theme whenever a local Labour group run out of ideas.

[johnr]

Jan 11, 2017 12:33:11 GMT The Bishop said:

Sure, I agree that it can be a bit of a "comfort blanket" for us. That's not the case here though, health is very much a live issue.

I quite agree. We're are about to have our third "SAVE OUR NHS NATIONAL DAY OF ACTION" in as many months, and the public have simply got weary of us saying it all the time.

Now, that aside, yesterday was a day when Corbyn should have dropped what he was planning to say and stuck to clear simple messages about the NHS. Although that would only really have worked if we hadnt been banging on about how much the NHS is in danger every day for the last 6 years. 

Thats not to say I think the NHS is safe in the hands of the present Government - but rather its like the boy who cried wolf. We need to save our clarion calls for when something real and significant actually happens. 

[swix]

Those who dismiss a campaign focused on the NHS as just comfort blanket and doomed to failure obviously aren't familiar with the 2014 council election in Hammersmith & Fulham, which saw Labour take the Council on a huge swing thanks to a campaign focused on saving a local hospital.

Natioanlly, the NHS is not enough to get into government but on a local level in the right circumstances, it can be a devastatingly effective campaign technique.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Have we forgotten Wyre Forest so soon?

[timrollpickering]

Is the National Health Action Party likely to be standing?

[Sibboleth]

Labour can certainly win votes using the NHS - it is a huge issue to many people even if it isn't to political insiders with BUPA membership - but by proposing actual policy changes. It's a microcosm of the Party's wider difficulties: Jeremiads might be satisfying for the people indulging in them but they don't actually win votes.

[La Fontaine]

I agree. A few years ago I attended a "Save the NHS" meeting in Newcastle addressed by the then shadow health secretary Andy Burnham. The audience was party and trade union people with an interest in health. I hoped he would give us a serious talk on both the government's iniquities and also Labour's ideas for the future. We got the former, but not the latter. There was no recognition of the real problems facing the NHS & social care. One would never have guessed that he had himself been health secretary faced with difficult decisions. The audience, however, mainly lapped it up, but I noted that Liz Kendall, who was his deputy, spent much of the time staring at the floor. I thought his performance was a disgrace, just telling people what they wanted to hear. I supported Yvette Cooper for the leadership, partly owing to this experience.
I have mixed feelings about the controversy over services at the West Cumberland hospital. It is certainly true that many people give excessive priority to where services are provided, rather than their quality. One example was the absurd campaign to stop Hartlepool hospital being replaced by a new hospital in Billingham. Local MPs often cynically support such campaigns. However, it is quite a trek from West Cumberland to Carlisle.

[Merseymike]

Jan 11, 2017 15:03:53 GMT La Fontaine said:

I agree. A few years ago I attended a "Save the NHS" meeting in Newcastle addressed by the then shadow health secretary Andy Burnham. The audience was party and trade union people with an interest in health. I hoped he would give us a serious talk on both the government's iniquities and also Labour's ideas for the future. We got the former, but not the latter. There was no recognition of the real problems facing the NHS & social care. One would never have guessed that he had himself been health secretary faced with difficult decisions. The audience, however, mainly lapped it up, but I noted that Liz Kendall, who was his deputy, spent much of the time staring at the floor. I thought his performance was a disgrace, just telling people what they wanted to hear. I supported Yvette Cooper for the leadership, partly owing to this experience.

Not entirely his doing. He was coming up with some interesting musings particularly with regard to blending the care and health services and looking at them as a whole, but got sat on by Balls because he thought it would cost too much.

Bloody man. Trust he never returns to politics, let along for this seat!

[carlton43]

Do we have a running NHS Thread? If not I shall set one up.

As I see it we have core problems

1) Difficulties in planning for demand.
2) Immigration not planned so immigrant demand not planned for.
3) Demographic Changes because of an increase in longevity that is easy to forecast but not acted on.
4) Massive increase in types of treatment and intervention.
5) Insufficient spending compared to our Peer Group.
6) Possible 'Wrong' priorities?
7) Failure to face up to some very hard questions.
8) Probable mismanagement and lack of management?
9) Failure to draw in more funds by having mixed Economy with growing Private and Part Private sectors.

[gwynthegriff]

Jan 11, 2017 12:21:41 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

West Cumberland Hospital is not a PFI hospital.

The problem is that the trust which runs it has two hospitals, the West Cumberland and Cumberland Infirmary in Carlisle. Cumberland Infirmary is a PFI hospital and so the trust are locked in to paying for it up to 2030.

One of the interesting side-effects of PFI hospitals is that the NHS can't close them. In other words, the fact that so many hospitals were built or rebuilt under PFI schemes during the Labour government is preventing the subsequent Conservative governments from shutting them and selling them off. It's possibly the most effective thing the Labour movement has done to save the NHS ...

Not if the PFI hospital is the "wrong" one to retain ...

[neilm]

Jan 11, 2017 12:21:41 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

West Cumberland Hospital is not a PFI hospital.

The problem is that the trust which runs it has two hospitals, the West Cumberland and Cumberland Infirmary in Carlisle. Cumberland Infirmary is a PFI hospital and so the trust are locked in to paying for it up to 2030.

One of the interesting side-effects of PFI hospitals is that the NHS can't close them. In other words, the fact that so many hospitals were built or rebuilt under PFI schemes during the Labour government is preventing the subsequent Conservative governments from shutting them and selling them off. It's possibly the most effective thing the Labour movement has done to save the NHS ...

It's only a matter of time before they're closed and sold off: the first ones will be reaching maturity fairly soon and then it'll be a reasonable crop for a few years. At that point, Labour will be able to scream about hospital closures.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Labourlist have a leak of the longlist

Barbara Cannon: Cumbria county councillor for Harrington and Salterbeck division 1997-2001, Moss Bay division 2001-2013. Allerdale borough councillor for St Johns ward 1995-99 and Moss Bay ward since 2007. Candidate for Penrith and the Border in 2010. Agent for Julie Ward MEP and worked in her Cumbria office until she closed it last year. Staunchly centrist and against party splits. Voted for Burnham in 2015 and seems to have gone for Owen Smith in 2016.

Tricia Clarke: CWU activist. Contested the Carlisle selection before the 2010 election. Lives in Islington. Allied to the 'Labour Representation Committee'. Lives in Islington.

Thomas Docherty: MP for Dunfermline and West Fife 2010-2015 when he served on the front bench. Contested Mid Scotland and Fife in 2016 Scottish Parliament election. Grew up in Whitehaven. Inclined to the Progress wing although not as outspoken as some.

Rachel Holliday: Founder of Calderwood House hostel; Cumbria Woman of the Year 2015. Member of Unite. Inclined to Momentum.

Graham Kendall: Keswick town councillor (elected unopposed in November 2016). Advisor to NHS Partners Network. Previously worked in Parliament advising ministers at the Home Office and the Department of Health. Doesn't seem to have taken public stances in internal Labour Party leadership elections.

Tim Knowles: Cumbria county councillor for Cleator Moor North and Frizington 2001-2013, Cleator Moor East and Frizington since 2013. Was cabinet member for Transport and Environment but resigned in February 2013 when the county council vetoed plans to bury nuclear waste in West Cumbria. Contested Frizington for Copeland borough council in 2003. Copeland borough councillor for Frizington 2007-2011. Called for Jeremy Corbyn to step down and backed Owen Smith in 2016.

David Southward: Cumbria county councillor for Egremont 1997-2001, St Bees and Egremont since 2001; cabinet member for economic development. Supported David Miliband in 2010.

Gillian Troughton: Copeland borough councillor for Bransty ward 2011-2015, for Distington ward since 2015. Cumbria county councillor for Howgate division since October 2015. Backed Owen Smith in 2016.

[johnr]

Thomas Docherty also applied to this seat for 2005, but lost out at the final hustings to Jamie Reed.

[anthony]

Cllr Rebecca Hanson has been announced as the Lib Dem candidate www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/latest/Lib-Dems-announce-MP-candidate-for-Copeland-4be6009b-8305-4937-bbbd-701ab091d097-ds

[The Bishop]

Jan 12, 2017 10:56:44 GMT johnr said:

Thomas Docherty also applied to this seat for 2005, but lost out at the final hustings to Jamie Reed.

He did (he came second) though IIRC he was actually based at Sellafield at the time so had more claim to be "local" than now.

As for DB's summary above, he was fairly "outspoken" on election night in Scotland last year. To be blunt about it, he talked absolute pish

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 12, 2017 11:16:02 GMT The Bishop said:

Jan 12, 2017 10:56:44 GMT johnr said:

Thomas Docherty also applied to this seat for 2005, but lost out at the final hustings to Jamie Reed.

He did (he came second) though IIRC he was actually based at Sellafield at the time so had more claim to be "local" than now.

As for DB's summary above, he was fairly "outspoken" on election night in Scotland last year. To be blunt about it, he talked absolute pish

He was hoping to win a seat, and didn't, which tends to be fairly provocative. But Docherty's main comment was directed at the electoral uselessness of the Scottish Labour Party; his comments about Jeremy Corbyn were critical but much more measured.

[The Bishop]

It wasn't his comments about Jez, but seeming to blame SLab's platform being a bit more left for the dreadful result. That's just rubbish.

But as you say, things get said in the heat of the moment. Let's see how he conducts himself now

[johnr]

Jan 12, 2017 11:25:27 GMT The Bishop said:

It wasn't his comments about Jez, but seeming to blame SLab's platform being a bit more left for the dreadful result. That's just rubbish.

But as you say, things get said in the heat of the moment. Let's see how he conducts himself now

Well, he had the benefit of having spoken to more voters than some of those higher up the Mid Scotland and Fife Labour list.....

[philipchandler]

Some further thoughts on the progressive alliance, with Tom Brake pretty much saying that the Lib Dems won't be a part of it: link

One paragraph that stood out for me (emphasis is mine):

"Instead, she will be fighting a Labour opponent in a seat the Tories will hope to gain. But ultimately we will not help progressive politics if we stand aside for Corbyn’s Labour, which would merely give the left false hope that someone of the hard left could become Prime Minister. To us, a Eurosceptic statist such as Corbyn is not even progressive. By doing well ourselves, the Lib Dems will strengthen the hand of Labour moderates to seize back control of their party, or else leave it entirely. Only then will re-alignment be back on the agenda."

For me, this shows the problem with the whole concept, which is that nobody can agree on what progressive means. It's quite hard to argue with progress as a concept, so seemingly everyone thinks that their ideology is progressive, and everyone else's isn't. I'm sure there are plenty enough Labour and Green supporting people out there reading this article and thinking, "But the Lib Dems aren't progressive, they went into coalition with the Tories." We should largely accept that we are separate parties because we have distinctive ideologies, yes we can agree on many things and should work together at the appropriate time, but that should not involve removing choice from the electorate by not standing against one another.

The other problem that I have with it is that it's all very well discussing this at a by-election, and maybe that can lead to a few gains, but what happens at the next general election? For me, and I'd imagine many (if not most) other Lib Dems a Jeremy Corbyn premiership would not be a positive outcome of the next general election, so why should we form an alliance with that as its central aim?