Byelections 8 December 2016

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

Dec 8, 2016 23:21:18 GMT maxque said:

University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

Lab 98 (34.9%; -0.5)
Grn 79 (28.1%; -4.4)
Con 68 (24.2%; +0.5)
LD 36 (12.8%; +4.4)

Surely the by-election could have been held in term time?

[iainbhx]

Dec 8, 2016 23:26:56 GMT Robert Waller said:

It'll be outside term time at Lancaster.

They break up tomorrow, I understand.

[Merseymike]

Dec 8, 2016 23:22:07 GMT maxque said:

Dec 8, 2016 23:15:00 GMT Merseymike said:

That doesn't surprise me given its expansion, but actually I think that two blended wards may be a better solution.

Given its location, it might be difficult.

Not really - you could put half with part of Scotforth and the other half with Galgate . Either side of the campus.

[independentukip]

You're all wrong I'm afraid.

www.lancaster.ac.uk/term-dates/

Academic Year 2016-2017
Michaelmas Term:

7 October 2016 to 16 December 2016

Just for a laugh they should have held the election on the 22nd.

[Lord Twaddleford]

Dec 8, 2016 23:21:18 GMT maxque said:

University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

Lab 98 (34.9%; -0.5)
Grn 79 (28.1%; -4.4)
Con 68 (24.2%; +0.5)
LD 36 (12.8%; +4.4)

Oooh, eeurgh! Those turnout figures...positively cringeworthy!

[timmullen1]

Independent GAIN Madeley from Labour

[andrewteale]

Dec 8, 2016 23:21:18 GMT maxque said:

University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

Lab 98 (34.9%; -0.5)
Grn 79 (28.1%; -4.4)
Con 68 (24.2%; +0.5)
LD 36 (12.8%; +4.4)

It's only to be expected, but - and I say this as someone who has administered student elections - that's an appalling turnout.

[Robert Waller]

Formal academic terms don't always correspond with when students are actually there.
For example at my university there was something called Full Term which was very different (and much longer) from the eight week plus a few days when lectures, tutorials and so on were actually taking place.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if a lot haven't already sloped off - particularly given the pressure nowadays to work to earn. I know that is the case with some of the university students I am still in contact with and help - a lot of final written assignments were due last Monday, for example.

Turnout in university wards in May are not usually anywhere near as low as today's.

[andrewteale]

Dec 8, 2016 23:29:11 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Dec 8, 2016 23:21:18 GMT maxque said:

University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

Lab 98 (34.9%; -0.5)
Grn 79 (28.1%; -4.4)
Con 68 (24.2%; +0.5)
LD 36 (12.8%; +4.4)

No wonder it didn't take long to count. When was the last time someone won a principal local authority seat with less than 100 votes?

City of London, last week.

[maxque]

Trench, Tonbridge and Malling

Con 603 (61.2%; +17.4)
Lab 204 (20.7%; +1.1)
UKIP 178 (18.1%; -0.3)

[andrewteale]

Dec 8, 2016 23:36:25 GMT Robert Waller said:

Formal academic terms don't always correspond with when students are actually there.
For example at my university there was something called Full Term which was very different (and much longer) from the eight week plus a few days when lectures, tutorials and so on were actually taking place.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if a lot haven't already sloped off - particularly given the pressure nowadays to work to earn. I know that is the case with some of the university students I am still in contact with and help - a lot of final written assignments were due last Monday, for example.

Turnout in university wards in May are not usually anywhere near as low as today's.

In the 2002 local elections I was poll clerk for the Warwick University polling station. The campus turnout was 8.4%, but for Wainbody ward as a whole it was much healthier.

[independentukip]

Dec 8, 2016 23:36:25 GMT Robert Waller said:

Formal academic terms don't always correspond with when students are actually there.
For example at my university there was something called Full Term which was very different (and much longer) from the eight week plus a few days when lectures, tutorials and so on were actually taking place.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if a lot haven't already sloped off - particularly given the pressure nowadays to work to earn. I know that is the case with some of the university students I am still in contact with and help - a lot of final written assignments were due last Monday, for example.

Turnout in university wards in May are not usually anywhere near as low as today's.

Well here we can view the compulsory lecture timetables for this week and next week. If the students have already cleared off they should really be kicked out altogether.

timetabling.lancaster.ac.uk/att2016-17/UndergraduatePart1.aspx

[maxque]

Madeley, Newcastle-under-Lyme

Ind 458 (64.8%; +17.7 on his partner)
Con 112 (15.8%; -11.1)
LD 75 (10.6%; +8.6)
Lab 62 (8.8%; -10.4)

[timmullen1]

Dec 8, 2016 23:37:09 GMT middleenglander said:

Lancaster, University & Scotforth Rural - Labour hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Labour	98	34.9%	-0.5%	-1.0%
Green	79	28.1%	-4.4%	-3.8%
Conservative	68	24.2%	+0.5%	-1.5%
Liberal Democrat	36	12.8%	+4.4%	+6.3%
Total votes	281		16%	19%

Swing Green to Labour ~2% / 1½% since 2015

Council now 30 Labour, 18 Conservative, 8 Green, 2 Residents, 2 Independent

Maldon, Maldon West - result awaited

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Row 2 column 1	Row 2 column 2	Row 2 column 3	Row 2 column 4	Row 2 column 5	Row 2 column 6	Row 2 column 7
Row 3 column 1	Row 3 column 2	Row 3 column 3	Row 3 column 4	Row 3 column 5	Row 3 column 6	Row 3 column 7
Row 4 column 1	Row 4 column 2	Row 4 column 3	Row 4 column 4	Row 4 column 5	Row 4 column 6	Row 4 column 7
Row 5 column 1	Row 5 column 2	Row 5 column 3	Row 5 column 4	Row 5 column 5	Row 5 column 6	Row 5 column 7
Row 6 column 1	Row 6 column 2	Row 6 column 3	Row 6 column 4	Row 6 column 5	Row 6 column 6	Row 6 column 7
Row 7 column 1	Row 7 column 2	Row 7 column 3	Row 7 column 4	Row 7 column 5	Row 7 column 6	Row 7 column 7
Independent Heard			-50.7%	-51.5%	-38.8%	-36.6%
Liberal Democrat					-10.4%	-10.7%
Total votes	Row 10 column 2		Row 10 column 4	Row 10 column 5	Row 10 column 6	Row 10 column 7

Swing

Council now 26 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 Independent Conservative, 1 UKIP, 1 Vacant

Newcastle-under-Lyme - Independent gain from Labour sitting as Independent

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015	since 2014	since 2012 B	since 2011	since 2010
Independent	Row 2 column 2	Row 2 column 3	Row 2 column 4	Row 2 column 5	Row 2 column 6	Row 2 column 7	Row 2 column 8
Row 3 column 1	Row 3 column 2	Row 3 column 3	Row 3 column 4	Row 3 column 5	Row 3 column 6	Row 3 column 7	Row 3 column 8
Row 4 column 1	Row 4 column 2	Row 4 column 3	Row 4 column 4	Row 4 column 5	Row 4 column 6	Row 4 column 7	Row 4 column 8
Row 5 column 1	Row 5 column 2	Row 5 column 3	Row 5 column 4	Row 5 column 5	Row 5 column 6	Row 5 column 7	Row 5 column 8
Independent			-47.1%
Green			-3.1%	-7.8%
UKIP				-24.9%	-3.2%	-8.0%	-6.3%
Total votes	Row 9 column 2		Row 9 column 4	Row 9 column 5	Row 9 column 6	Row 9 column 7	Row 9 column 8

Swing

Council now 28 Labour, 21 Conservative, 6 Independents, 3 Liberal Democrats, 2 UKIP

Telford & Wrekin, Horsehay & Lightmoor - Labour gain from Conservative

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Labour	358	46.3%	+20.9%	+20.7%	+4.9%	+4.0%
Conservative	292	37.3%	-4.3%	-2.0%	-6.3%	-8.2%
UKIP	124	16.0%	-1.5%	-2.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat			-7.3%	-7.9%
Green			-6.3%	-6.9%
Libertarian			-1.5%	-1.6%
Telford & Wrekin People					-14.7%	-11.8%
Total votes			25%	28%	66%	70%

 Swing Conservative to Labour ~12½% / 11¼% since 2015 and ~5½% / 6% since 2011

Council now 28 Labour, 21 Conservative, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent

Tonbridge & Malling, Trench - Conservative hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Conservative	Row 2 column 2	Row 2 column 3	Row 2 column 4	Row 2 column 5
Labour	Row 3 column 2	Row 3 column 3	Row 3 column 4	Row 3 column 5
UKIP	Row 4 column 2	Row 4 column 3	Row 4 column 4	Row 4 column 5
Green			-9.5%	-9.7%
Liberal Democrat			-8.7%	-9.0%
Total votes	Row 7 column 2		Row 7 column 4	Row 7 column 5

Swing

Council now 47 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent, 1 Vacant

Maybe worth mentioning for accuracy that the Independents on Newcastle Borough Council are two distinct Groups - one, I presume tonight's winners, are ex-Labour, Liberal Democrats, Green (and as the winner's partner is Deputy Mayor presumably support the minority Labour administration more often than not) and the other Group are largely ex-UKIP, at least one of whom I believe continues to sit as a UKIP County Councillor.

[Robert Waller]

I stand corrected on my surmise about Lancaster University. None of my contacts is there.

[ideal4radio]

Dec 8, 2016 23:35:56 GMT andrewteale said:

Dec 8, 2016 23:21:18 GMT maxque said:

University and Scotforth Rural, Lancaster

Lab 98 (34.9%; -0.5)
Grn 79 (28.1%; -4.4)
Con 68 (24.2%; +0.5)
LD 36 (12.8%; +4.4)

It's only to be expected, but - and I say this as someone who has administered student elections - that's an appalling turnout.

 Given the level of political awareness of this demographic, some have re-tweeted a view with which they agreed or shared it on Facebook, whilst signing a petition on Fracking offered them by a friend, whom they'd quite like to ask out, but are scared to death, because a refusal might cause them to retreat to a " Safe- Space ", and get them reported to the authorities. Any of the rest who've actually heard about it, are waiting for the final vote next week, to be introduced by " Ant & Dec ", and screened live on ITV1, and then they might bother, if they're up, of course !!  Paris 1968 this is not !!!

[Sharon]

Dec 8, 2016 22:48:56 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The council now clears it up: (but misspells the name)

And with that gain, Labour gain overall control of the Council, from NOC.

Numbers now: Lab 28, Tories 21, LDs 3, Others 2.

[Adam in Stroud]

It's an abysmal turn-out, but given that by-election turn outs are always lower than those in wider elections (37% in Sleaford, which is what, about half what you'd expect in a GE? And I don't see anyone slagging off the electors of rural Lincolnshire for a notably lower turn-out compared to Richmond Park).

Assuming three year courses, roughly one third of the students will have probably lived somewhere else all their lives prior to three months ago; and another one third probably expect to live somewhere else fir the rest of their lives in about six months' time.  It is regrettable but not exactly surprising (or even silly) not to be very interested in District Council politics in those circumstances. It doesn't necessarily imply a lack of interest in national politics or reflect what would happen in a GE.

[Sharon]

Dec 8, 2016 23:36:25 GMT Robert Waller said:

Formal academic terms don't always correspond with when students are actually there.
For example at my university there was something called Full Term which was very different (and much longer) from the eight week plus a few days when lectures, tutorials and so on were actually taking place.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if a lot haven't already sloped off - particularly given the pressure nowadays to work to earn. I know that is the case with some of the university students I am still in contact with and help - a lot of final written assignments were due last Monday, for example.

Turnout in university wards in May are not usually anywhere near as low as today's.

Have to agree.  My polling district which has the largest university population in it this May, was the PD with the highest turnout (and my best PD too).

[maxque]

Seems the Independent won in Maldon.