Byelections 1 December 2016

[Khunanup]

Dec 1, 2016 23:39:39 GMT mboy said:

Sweet!

Laugh if we lost Richmond by 50 votes coz they were helping in Chichester...

If there was no Richmond Park think what the Southbourne majority might have been (I'm sure there would have been a few from Pompey there at least as it's on our doorstep)...

[maxque]

Dec 2, 2016 0:24:01 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

TOWER HAMLETS Whitechapel

Shafi Ahmed (Independent) 1,147 (44.7%)
Victoria Obaze (Labour) 823 (32.1%)
Will Fletcher (Conservative) 217 (8.5%)
Emanuel Tomislav Andjelic (Liberal Democrats) 173 (6.8%)
James Wilson (Green) 170 (6.6%)
Martin Smith (UKIP) 34 (1.3%)

"THF" +4.4
Lab +6.5
Con +0.7
LD -0.1
Grn -6.4
UKIP -2.5

[marksenior]

Warwick result

Con 488
LDem 228
Lab 194

[maxque]

Dec 2, 2016 0:31:11 GMT marksenior said:

Warwick result

Con 488
LDem 228
Lab 194

Con 53.6% (+10.1)
LD 25.1% (+10.5)
Lab 21.3%

[Sharon]

Is South Northamptonshire, Grange Park counting tonight or tomorrow morning?

[maxque]

Dec 2, 2016 1:12:16 GMT Sharon said:

Is South Northamptonshire, Grange Park counting tonight or tomorrow morning?

No clue, but nobody twitted about the election since 3 days, so I suspect that we wouldn't know even if they already counted.

Democracy is a bit dead in South Northamptonshire and that's not new. Tons of unopposed returns usually, too.

[finsobruce]

Dec 2, 2016 1:17:43 GMT maxque said:

Dec 2, 2016 1:12:16 GMT Sharon said:

Is South Northamptonshire, Grange Park counting tonight or tomorrow morning?

No clue, but nobody twitted about the election since 3 days, so I suspect that we wouldn't know even if they already counted.

Democracy is a bit dead in South Northamptonshire and that's not new. Tons of unopposed returns usually, too.

Is it the authority that usually has the most unopposed returns? I'm suspecting this might be a keenly fought race.

[andrewteale]

The 2014 by-election in Grange Park counted overnight.

[peterl]

Just home from the Ferndown count.

Can't remember the exact numbers but roughly

Conservative 1,470
UKIP 830
Lib Dem 310
Labour 160

We worked out the percentages and its very similar to September, Lib Dems are up a tiny bit.

[johnloony]

Dec 2, 2016 1:49:36 GMT peterl said:

Just home from the Ferndown count.

Can't remember the exact numbers but roughly

Conservative 1,470
UKIP 830
Lib Dem 310
Labour 160

We worked out the percentages and its very similar to September, Lib Dems are up a tiny bit.

"Home from the count"? Do you mean that you were at the count? If do, you wrote the result down like everybody else, and do not need to rely on "remembering" the "exact numbers".

[middleenglander]

Conservative hold South Northamptonshire, Grange Park.

Con 244 (58.4%), Lab 105 (25.1%), UKIP 49 (11.7%), Green 20 (4.8%)

[andrewteale]

Dec 2, 2016 10:09:04 GMT @barnabymarder said:

"Andrew's previews" reminds me of the Morecambe & Wise episode featuring André Previn

All the right polls, but not necessarily in the right order.

[andrewteale]

Ferndown result: C 1463 UKIP 831 LD 301 Lab 160

[peterl]

"Home from the count"? Do you mean that you were at the count? If do, you wrote the result down like everybody else, and do not need to rely on "remembering" the "exact numbers".

Someone else wrote down the exact numbers. Actually, I think my memory turned out to be quite accurate.

[The Bishop]

Dec 2, 2016 0:30:49 GMT maxque said:

Dec 2, 2016 0:24:01 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

TOWER HAMLETS Whitechapel

Shafi Ahmed (Independent) 1,147 (44.7%)
Victoria Obaze (Labour) 823 (32.1%)
Will Fletcher (Conservative) 217 (8.5%)
Emanuel Tomislav Andjelic (Liberal Democrats) 173 (6.8%)
James Wilson (Green) 170 (6.6%)
Martin Smith (UKIP) 34 (1.3%)

"THF" +4.4
Lab +6.5
Con +0.7
LD -0.1
Grn -6.4
UKIP -2.5

Like most people (even on here) I do not avidly follow the intricacies of Tower Hamlets politics, so is it reasonable to regard the Indy as "continuity THF"?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Dec 2, 2016 12:20:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Like most people (even on here) I do not avidly follow the intricacies of Tower Hamlets politics, so is it reasonable to regard the Indy as "continuity THF"?

Yes, in the sense that he's from a faction within Bengali politics opposed to Labour. But the former Tower Hamlets First is now somewhat splintered between the 'official' Tower Hamlets Independent Group and some who have left it, including Rabina Khan who was chosen as their post-Lutfur Mayoral candidate last year.

[middleenglander]

Chichester, Southbourne - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Liberal Democrat	646	57.7%	+15.8%	+21.5%	+26.2%	+30.3%
Conservative	289	25.8%	-32.3%	-38.1%	-17.8%	-20.1%
UKIP	132	11.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	53	4.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-8.3%	-9.2%
Independent					-12.0%	-12.8%
Total votes	1,120		33%	38%	42%	45%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~24% since 2015 and similar since 2011
- the new Councillor polled some 60% more votes than his 2 running mates in 2015

Council now 41 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent
    
Dorset, Ferndown - Conservative gain from UKIP

Party	2016 B2 votes	2016 B2 share	since 2016 B1	since 2013 "top"	since 2013 "average"	since 2009 "top"	since 2009 "average"
Conservative	1,463	53.1%	-3.9%	+9.2%	+8.4%	-0.8%	-0.9%
UKIP	831	30.2%	-0.3%	-14.5%	-14.3%	+3.3%	+3.5%
Liberal Democrat	301	10.9%	+3.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-2.8%	-2.8%
Labour	160	5.8%	+0.5%	-5.6%	-5.0%	+0.3%	+0.2%
Total votes	2,755		77%	55%	58%	42%	42%

Swing Conservative to UKIP ~1¾% since September by-election and ~1¼% since 2009 but UKIP to Conservative ~11½% since 2013

Council now 27 Conservative, 13 Liberal Democrat, 4 Labour, 1 Green

South Northamptonshire, Grange Park - Conservative hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"	since 2014 B "top"	since 2014 B "average"	since 2012 B	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"
Conservative	244	58.4%	-13.0%	-9.7%	-4.9%	-2.2%	-17.8%	-16.7%	-15.2%
Labour	105	25.1%	-3.5%	-6.8%	+3.0%	+0.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP	49	11.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-2.9%	-3.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	20	4.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat							-23.8%
Independent								-24.9%	-26.4%
Total votes	418		20%	23%	61%	68%	102%	45%	48%

Swing Conservative to Labour ~4¾%  / 1½% since 2015 and ~4%  / 1½% since 2014 "double" by-election otherwise not meaningful

Council now 35 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent

Tower Hamlets, Whitechapel - Independent gain from Tower Hamlets First sitting as Independent

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2014 "top"	since 2014 "average"
Independent	1,147	44.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	823	32.1%	+6.5%	+7.9%
Conservative	217	8.5%	+0.8%	+1.0%
Liberal Democrat	173	6.7%	+0.0%	-0.2%
Green	170	6.6%	-6.6%	-7.0%
UKIP	34	1.3%	-2.4%	-2.5%
Tower Hamlets First			-40.3%	-41.1%
TUSC			-2.6%	-2.7%
Total votes	2,564		48%	50%

Swing, if meaningful, Independent / Tower Hamlets First to Labour ~1% / 2% since 2014

Council now 23 Labour, 9 Independent Group, 8 Independent, 5 Conservative

Warwick, Myton & Heathcote - Conservative hold

Party	2016 votes	2016 share	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Conservative	488	53.6%	+10.2%	+9.6%
Liberal Democrat	228	25.1%	+10.5%	+10.1%
Labour	194	21.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent			-14.9%	-14.0%
Green			-14.4%	-14.0%
UKIP			-12.6%	-13.0%
Total votes	910		31%	32%

Swing insignificant since 2015

Council now 31 Conservative, 9 Labour, 3 Residents, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 2, 2016 10:40:05 GMT @barnabymarder said:

There was also a town council election in Crewe last night, in West ward. Don't know the previous result, but last night's result was Lab 736, Con 228, UKIP 215.

Brian Twitter Silvester finishes 3rd.

To quote his heroine:

REJOICE !

[Robert Waller]

Dec 2, 2016 0:10:17 GMT middleenglander said:

Dec 1, 2016 23:57:50 GMT carlton43 said:

That is a bad result for the Conservatives and wrecks my prediction chances tonight. Over half their vote lost and no Independent to account for that. Serious.

The new councillor polled 60% more votes than his two running mates in 2015 (see top of thread) and there is t5hus likely to be a significant personal vote in tonight's figures.

Yes, I don't think too much should be read into this result, even though part of a good day for the Lib Dems.
The LD candidate was from Southbourne itself, by far the largest community in the ward. The Conservative lives outside the ward, in West Ashling - it's a nice spot, and has a highly Good Food Guide rated inn.

It's name?
The Richmond Arms!

[Deleted]

Southbourne
Chichester DC
Conservative resigned

Candidates: www.chichester.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=27064&p=0
Jonathan BROWN (Liberal Democrat)
Rebecca HAMLET (Labour Party)
David HARWOOD (The Conservative Party candidate)
Patricia HUNT (UKIP)

2016by: LD 646, Con 289, UKIP 132, Labour 53
2015: Con 1994/1865/1847, LD 1437/914/878
2011: Con 1158/1154/1104, LD 836/621/584, Lab 346, Ind 318
2007: Con 970/961/913, LD 828/827/716



Ferndown
Dorset CC
UKIP resigned

Candidates
Jason JONES (Liberal Democrats)
Andrew PARRY (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Peter STOKES (The Labour Party Candidate)
Lawrence WILSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

2016by: Con 1,463, UKIP 831, LD 301, Labour 160
2013: UKIP 2222/2027, Con 2187/2085, Lab 567/466
2009: Con 3575/3460, UKIP 1780/1691, LD 913/873, Lab 368
2005: Con 5390/5306, LD 2422/2316, Ind 1497, Lab 1480, UKIP 1083
Feb 2016: Con 2,046, UKIP 1,092, LD 260, Lab 190



Grange Park
South Northamptonshire DC

Andy CLARKE (Green Party)
Rose GIBBINS (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Andrew GRANT (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Ian GRANT (The Labour Party Candidate)

2016by: Con 244, Lab 105, UKIP 49, Green 20
2015: Con 1459/1032, Lab 584
2014: Con 433 / 313, Lab 151, UKIP 100 / 84
2012: Con 313, LD 98
2011: Con 697/590, Ind 231
2007: Conservatives Unopposed x 2



Whitechapel
Tower Hamlets LB
Tower Hamlets First sitting as Independent disqualified

Shafi AHMED (Independent)
Emanuel ANDJELIC (Liberal Democrats)
Will FLETCHER (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Victoria OBAZE (Labour Party)
Martin SMITH (UK Independence Party)
James WILSON (Green Party)

2016by: Ind 1,147, Lab 823, Con 217, LD 173, Green 170, UKIP 34
2014: Tower Hamlets First 2139/2117/2008, Lab 1359/1190/1188, Green 703, Con 409/405/345, LD 358, UKIP 199, TUSC 139
2010: Lab 2158/2091/2003, LD 1119/1069/906, Respect 1114/1004/890, Con 1044/915/832, Green 599/383/335
2006: Respect 1449/1084/1004, Lab 1107/1040/1019, Ind 650/186, LD 529/511/458, Con 397/344/284




Myton and Heathcote
Warwick DC
Conservative died

Mary NOONE (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Nick SOLMAN (Liberal Democrat)
Ben WESSON (Labour Party Candidate)

2016by: Con 488, LD 228, Lab 194
2015: Con 1286/1252, Ind 440/370, LD 431, Green 427/383, UKIP 374