Sleaford & North Hykeham

[cuthbertbede]

Dec 8, 2016 9:19:07 GMT Antiochian said:

Dec 8, 2016 8:09:36 GMT No Offence Alan said:

No leaked Lib Dem canvass returns yet?

No, but I received the now obligatory "morning thereof" email from Tim trying to shake down the membership for funds for the by-election (bit late).

It does beg the question though, if the LibDems are doing the heavy-lifting for Remainers, when will Goldman Sachs and other companies that have been griping about Brexit start sending in their cheques?

Was yours asking for money? Mine just mentioned making calls, nothing about money at all.

I don't know the specifics of this campaign obviously, but a lot of campaign spending has to be made or planned quite early, whereas it often takes longer for the money to come in, so there are good reasons to keep asking for cash right up until the deadline.

[mrpastelito]

First Umunna, now Burnham: 'Burnham [...] has in the past expressed doubts about the impact of allowing EU migrants unlimited access to the UK. But in the debate he went further, saying that the EU referendum result showed that the status quo was unsustainable and that the left had failed to accept the need for migration reform.'

Looking forward to open warfare between internationalist-socialist, nationalist-socialist, and not-socialist-at-all factions within the party.

[carlton43]

Dec 8, 2016 10:44:11 GMT mrpastelito said:

First Umunna, now Burnham: 'Burnham [...] has in the past expressed doubts about the impact of allowing EU migrants unlimited access to the UK. But in the debate he went further, saying that the EU referendum result showed that the status quo was unsustainable and that the left had failed to accept the need for migration reform.'

Looking forward to open warfare between internationalist-socialist, nationalist-socialist, and not-socialist-at-all factions within the party.

I prefer to see it as the realist/rationalist faction and those connected to their voters versus the doctrinaire theory based faction who feel policy and correctness trump the 'mere will of the people'.  At essence this is and has always been a crisis of democracy where the 'representatives' have at long last been rumbled and shown up to be false friends by the populists.

[mrpastelito]

Dec 8, 2016 10:51:28 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 8, 2016 10:44:11 GMT mrpastelito said:

First Umunna, now Burnham: 'Burnham [...] has in the past expressed doubts about the impact of allowing EU migrants unlimited access to the UK. But in the debate he went further, saying that the EU referendum result showed that the status quo was unsustainable and that the left had failed to accept the need for migration reform.'

Looking forward to open warfare between internationalist-socialist, nationalist-socialist, and not-socialist-at-all factions within the party.

I prefer to see it as the realist/rationalist faction and those connected to their voters versus the doctrinaire theory based faction who feel policy and correctness trump the 'mere will of the people'.  At essence this is and has always been a crisis of democracy where the 'representatives' have at long last been rumbled and shown up to be false friends by the populists.

Let's hope the doctrinaire theory based faction prevails. One way or the other, Labour will find it increasingly difficult to satisfy both London metropolitan elite/BAME and Northern traditional WWC voters.

[carlton43]

Dec 8, 2016 10:58:40 GMT mrpastelito said:

Dec 8, 2016 10:51:28 GMT carlton43 said:

I prefer to see it as the realist/rationalist faction and those connected to their voters versus the doctrinaire theory based faction who feel policy and correctness trump the 'mere will of the people'.  At essence this is and has always been a crisis of democracy where the 'representatives' have at long last been rumbled and shown up to be false friends by the populists.

Let's hope the doctrinaire theory based faction prevails. One way or the other, Labour will find it increasingly difficult to satisfy both London metropolitan elite/BAME and Northern traditional WWC voters.

We differ in that hope of course but agree on the inability to satisfy both sets. You have opted for much the smaller sub set I think? If your will prevails I shall be quite delighted.

[Deleted]

Dec 8, 2016 0:37:25 GMT Foggy said:

Sleaford Town FC lost 3-0 at home to Sporting Khalsa on the eve of the by-election before 124 paying spectators in an FA Vase replay.

Khalsa self-identifies as an "Asian" team. Another hundred or so votes for Ayling right there?

Sporting Khalsa are a Sikh team, and there are a fair few Sikhs in UKIP:

[mrpastelito]

Dec 8, 2016 11:03:18 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 8, 2016 10:58:40 GMT mrpastelito said:

Let's hope the doctrinaire theory based faction prevails. One way or the other, Labour will find it increasingly difficult to satisfy both London metropolitan elite/BAME and Northern traditional WWC voters.

We differ in that hope of course but agree on the inability to satisfy both sets. You have opted for much the smaller sub set I think? If your will prevails I shall be quite delighted.

So shall I which is why I'm hoping for that outcome.

[carlton43]

Dec 8, 2016 11:58:21 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Here's my guess (hopefully I'm completely wrong):

Conservative 46%
UK Independence Party 24%
Labour 19%
Lincolnshire Independent 5%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Others 1%

I would quite happily vote Conservative here.

Yes that is about it. I think LDs will be 4th and nearer 8-10%. I might tweak the top three a bit, but essentially correct.

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 8, 2016 9:19:07 GMT Antiochian said:

Dec 8, 2016 8:09:36 GMT No Offence Alan said:

No leaked Lib Dem canvass returns yet?

No, but I received the now obligatory "morning thereof" email from Tim trying to shake down the membership for funds for the by-election (bit late).

It does beg the question though, if the LibDems are doing the heavy-lifting for Remainers, when will Goldman Sachs and other companies that have been griping about Brexit start sending in their cheques?

I thought I saw a Goldman Sachs donation on the Q3 return?

(Incidentally, no question is being begged.)

[The Bishop]

Burnham said stuff along those lines in last year's leadership election, its not new from him.

And whatever "side" you are on, it needs to be understood that there is a difference between an approach of "some people *do* have genuine concerns about the effects of immigration - especially on their own communities - and that has to be dealt with" and the witless "MAOR RACISM!!" dog whistling from the likes of Reeves and Kinnock Jnr.

[Khunanup]

Dec 8, 2016 10:44:11 GMT mrpastelito said:

First Umunna, now Burnham: 'Burnham [...] has in the past expressed doubts about the impact of allowing EU migrants unlimited access to the UK. But in the debate he went further, saying that the EU referendum result showed that the status quo was unsustainable and that the left had failed to accept the need for migration reform.'

Looking forward to open warfare between internationalist-socialist, nationalist-socialist, and not-socialist-at-all factions within the party.

Andy Burnham, the resident Labour Party nihilist...

[Adam in Stroud]

Dec 8, 2016 11:58:21 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Here's my guess (hopefully I'm completely wrong):

Conservative 46%
UK Independence Party 24%
Labour 19%
Lincolnshire Independent 5%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Others 1%

I would quite happily vote Conservative here.

I'll be disappointed and actually a bit surprised if our share is that low.

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 8, 2016 21:59:33 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Dec 8, 2016 11:58:21 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Here's my guess (hopefully I'm completely wrong):

Conservative 46%
UK Independence Party 24%
Labour 19%
Lincolnshire Independent 5%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Others 1%

I would quite happily vote Conservative here.

I'll be disappointed and actually a bit surprised if our share is that low.

If it's 5% in S&NH and 2% in Madeley then I shall eat Ashdown's hat.


Or something.

[carlton43]

Dec 8, 2016 22:09:58 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Dec 8, 2016 21:59:33 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

I'll be disappointed and actually a bit surprised if our share is that low.

If it's 5% in S&NH and 2% in Madeley then I shall eat Ashdown's hat.


Or something.

Wot! Again?

Don't make rash promises.

[carlton43]

Are these people counting tonight?

[Deleted]

Dec 8, 2016 22:20:00 GMT carlton43 said:

Are these people counting tonight?

Yes

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 8, 2016 22:19:29 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 8, 2016 22:09:58 GMT gwynthegriff said:

If it's 5% in S&NH and 2% in Madeley then I shall eat Ashdown's hat.


Or something.

Wot! Again?

Don't make rash promises.

(Hence the 'or something' ...)

[AdminSTB]

Dec 8, 2016 11:58:21 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Here's my guess (hopefully I'm completely wrong):

Conservative 46%
UK Independence Party 24%
Labour 19%
Lincolnshire Independent 5%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Others 1%

I would quite happily vote Conservative here.

I can imagine the Conservative share being rather lower than that due to the circumstances of this by-election, probably closer to 40%.

Interesting to note it is now a full decade since a by-election (namely Bromley and Chislehurst) has been caused by the death of a Conservative MP. In fact there have only been three other such instances since 1997 (Romsey, Kensington & Chelsea and Uxbridge).

[Davıd Boothroyd]

[Andrew_S]

I was in Sleaford for a couple of hours this afternoon but unfortunately wasn't able to discern anything of any importance while I was there as far as the by-election is concerned.

It does seem like a very middle-class town though. There are fairly new detached houses with front gardens just a couple of minutes walk from the train station for example, which is fairly unusual I think.