Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 17:16:44 GMT
As a stage one assault on Labour, I am prepared to see us do enough damage to the Labour vote to permit more gains by the Conservatives and LDs than by us. Good to see some gains, but happy to see just many more votes, facilitating Labour losses. In Stage two we move in on the marginal and winkle out LDs and Conservatives as a medium term strategy. I have to act on a fairly short term, so seeing Labour severely broken would be enough. If that implies a resurgent LD presence, I can live with that unless they are too anti-Brexit? On the basis of 'my enemy's enemy is my friend', UKIP and the LibDems would appear to be in some sense allied in a pincer movement against Labour. God only knows what Labour's stance on Brexit is. While Labour work out what, if any, their position happens to be, the LibDems will start eating away at their Middle Class, Europhile support, while UKIP get their claws into Labour's pro-Brexit Working Class base. The more supporters UKIP win over, the easier it will be for the LibDems to overturn Labour majorities, and vice-versa. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 7, 2016 17:17:18 GMT
Quite what fantasies of this sort have to do with the not-exactly-working-class and not-knowingly-northern Lincs constituency that this by-election is being fought in though...
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 17:47:10 GMT
Quite what fantasies of this sort have to do with the not-exactly-working-class and not-knowingly-northern Lincs constituency that this by-election is being fought in though... Your personal fantasy is your delusion that you understand the world outside your head. I believe the discussion went beyond this particular constituency, and onto UKIP's prospects (or lack of) generally. The relevance of Labour to the British public in 2016 may be judged by their vote share in two constituencies - one very remain and one leaning towards leave. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 7, 2016 18:15:19 GMT
Ah yes, an extremely wealthy residential district in London where Labour has sometimes struggled to keep its deposit in General Elections and a prosperous rural constituency in Lincolnshire. Absolutely ideal constituencies by which to measure the 'relevance' of the Labour Party!
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Post by marksenior on Dec 7, 2016 18:15:34 GMT
There is no evidence that the Labour vote has fallen at all since 2015 in the North and Midlands . Sure they are not doing well and not picking up support from the Conservatives as they should be in the middle of a Conservative government but looking at council by elections as a whole since the referendum the Labour vote share is stuck at around the 30% level , the fantasy is that of UKIP supporters that they are not losing support almost everywhere and can challenge Labour up t'North .
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 18:55:18 GMT
There is no evidence that the Labour vote has fallen at all since 2015 in the North and Midlands . Sure they are not doing well and not picking up support from the Conservatives as they should be in the middle of a Conservative government but looking at council by elections as a whole since the referendum the Labour vote share is stuck at around the 30% level , the fantasy is that of UKIP supporters that they are not losing support almost everywhere and can challenge Labour up t'North . There is overwhelming evidence of a massive disconnect between the views of Labour MPs and their northern Working Class constituents however, as evidenced by the leave vote in many such constituencies. There is further evidence throughout Europe of the Working Class abandoning their traditional socialist parties for more nationalist ones (for example, in the Austrian presidential election, Hofer got 85% support from manual workers). The connection between SJW types such as Sib and your average Working Class bloke in terms of social attitudes is somewhere between tenuous and non-existent. Clearly, Labour have presented UKIP with an open goal. Whether or not we succeed in putting the ball in the net or hoof it over the crossbar will be down to organisation, funding, unity and so on. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 7, 2016 19:49:06 GMT
The HOC vote today might just help a little if it unearths enough 5th Column Conservatives voting the 'Wrong Way' and provides traction in the press and noise for election day. But overall I don't think Ayling will have shifted this enough? If we cannot hit a sound second place then Nuttall needs to hold meeting on 'Why'. This was an excellent opportunity in our sort of territory but it needed plenty of groundwork and a discretely tailored approach to push just the right buttons just hard enough. 'taint Boston. I think there's probably been some lazy journalism ( quelle surprise) here - it's in Lincolnshire, therefore UKIP must be strong. I claim no insight on the constituency - don't think I've ever set foot therein - but the impression I get is of three components: Spalding Sleaford - market town (Thanks Sibb) North Hykeham - Lincoln suburb The rest - small villages & the deeply rural Anybody know how it splits in electorate terms? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 7, 2016 19:52:20 GMT
Sleaford rather than Spalding. Agricultural manufacturing town (maltings, seed companies: historically anyway), fairly typical of that type.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 7, 2016 19:53:34 GMT
But this nonsense about this being an economically disadvantaged or LEFT BEHIND area; wtf? It's anything but. But as we all saw at Oldham last year the average political journalist hasn't got a fycking clue as to the country in which they live in...
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 7, 2016 19:57:39 GMT
As a stage one assault on Labour, I am prepared to see us do enough damage to the Labour vote to permit more gains by the Conservatives and LDs than by us. Good to see some gains, but happy to see just many more votes, facilitating Labour losses. In Stage two we move in on the marginal and winkle out LDs and Conservatives as a medium term strategy. I have to act on a fairly short term, so seeing Labour severely broken would be enough. If that implies a resurgent LD presence, I can live with that unless they are too anti-Brexit? On the basis of 'my enemy's enemy is my friend', UKIP and the LibDems would appear to be in some sense allied in a pincer movement against Labour. God only knows what Labour's stance on Brexit is. While Labour work out what, if any, their position happens to be, the LibDems will start eating away at their Middle Class, Europhile support, while UKIP get their claws into Labour's pro-Brexit Working Class base. The more supporters UKIP win over, the easier it will be for the LibDems to overturn Labour majorities, and vice-versa. It's perfectly clear. They are against it, for it, and agnostic. Good luck with that one! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 20:05:22 GMT
But this nonsense about this being an economically disadvantaged or LEFT BEHIND area; wtf? It's anything but. But as we all saw at Oldham last year the average political journalist hasn't got a fycking clue as to the country in which they live in... That's your own nonsense and strawman argument though. No-one's actually claiming this on this thread. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 7, 2016 20:06:16 GMT
...
Jesus sometimes people here read things OTHER than this forum you know?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 7, 2016 20:12:54 GMT
The HOC vote today might just help a little if it unearths enough 5th Column Conservatives voting the 'Wrong Way' and provides traction in the press and noise for election day. But overall I don't think Ayling will have shifted this enough? If we cannot hit a sound second place then Nuttall needs to hold meeting on 'Why'. This was an excellent opportunity in our sort of territory but it needed plenty of groundwork and a discretely tailored approach to push just the right buttons just hard enough. 'taint Boston. I think there's probably been some lazy journalism ( quelle surprise) here - it's in Lincolnshire, therefore UKIP must be strong. I claim no insight on the constituency - don't think I've ever set foot therein - but the impression I get is of three components: Spalding Sleaford - market town (Thanks Sibb) North Hykeham - Lincoln suburb The rest - small villages & the deeply rural Anybody know how it splits in electorate terms? Sleaford about 12.5k North Hykeham 11.5k the rest somewhat over 60k (there are a few small bits which are more or less suburbs of Lincoln or Grantham) |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 7, 2016 21:26:37 GMT
There is no evidence that the Labour vote has fallen at all since 2015 in the North and Midlands . Sure they are not doing well and not picking up support from the Conservatives as they should be in the middle of a Conservative government but looking at council by elections as a whole since the referendum the Labour vote share is stuck at around the 30% level , the fantasy is that of UKIP supporters that they are not losing support almost everywhere and can challenge Labour up t'North . We are in the speculation zone of course. UKIP may be deteriorating even more than Labour? By-elections not a good measure except to observe that Labour ought after over 6-years to be ahead in the polls and routinely picking up seats....and they are far from both. On the typically low TO for a by-election one expect the core tribal Labour vote is still on show.............But what would the result be in event of a GE focussed on the comparative PMs and with TO over 60% everywhere? I think a pooe one for Labour? However we just don't know the local dynamics to that prospective GE next spring or in 2020! The LDs, Conservatives and UKIP could all do so well that they fracture the vote and leave Labour safe with the support of a smaller left? One party might be crashing and another surging for reasons we are yet to discern. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 7, 2016 21:50:32 GMT
God only knows what Labour's stance on Brexit is. It's perfectly clear. They are against it, for it, and agnostic. Good luck with that one! Seems symptomatic of a wider problem to me, namely what is Labour's stance on almost anything? They've at least managed to stop openly fighting, and to his credit Corbyn is sounding a lot more professional (to me at least) at PMQs, but peace seems to be predicated on no-one much advancing any policy positions in case the other side of the party shoots it down. Maybe if the peace can hold long enough, and the party can concentrate on picking holes in the similar lack of unity in the Tory party on Europe, then internal relations can improve to the point of some consensus policies emerging - but it makes it quite hard to fight a by-election on a particular issue. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 7, 2016 23:36:41 GMT
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Dec 8, 2016 0:37:25 GMT
Sleaford Town FC lost 3-0 at home to Sporting Khalsa on the eve of the by-election before 124 paying spectators in an FA Vase replay.
Khalsa self-identifies as an "Asian" team. Another hundred or so votes for Ayling right there?
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 8, 2016 3:13:50 GMT
Sleaford Town FC lost 3-0 at home to Sporting Khalsa on the eve of the by-election before 124 paying spectators in an FA Vase replay. Khalsa self-identifies as an "Asian" team. Another hundred or so votes for Ayling right there? Does there is even one hundred voters caring about the FA Vase? Ten seems more likely than 100. Would imply: 1. Care about FA Vase. 2. Know Khalsa identify as Asian. 3. Care about 2 and decide to let their vote being influenced by that. 4. Were not voting UKIP already. 5. Will bother to vote. Not many people will fulfill those 5 conditions. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 8, 2016 8:09:36 GMT
No leaked Lib Dem canvass returns yet?
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Post by Antiochian on Dec 8, 2016 9:19:07 GMT
No leaked Lib Dem canvass returns yet? No, but I received the now obligatory "morning thereof" email from Tim trying to shake down the membership for funds for the by-election (bit late). It does beg the question though, if the LibDems are doing the heavy-lifting for Remainers, when will Goldman Sachs and other companies that have been griping about Brexit start sending in their cheques? |
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