Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 7, 2016 14:47:46 GMT
Well most people who don't vote UKIP now tend to hate UKIP (no matter where they stood on the referendum or whatever) so that's an issue.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 15:28:17 GMT
Well most people who don't vote UKIP now tend to hate UKIP (no matter where they stood on the referendum or whatever) so that's an issue. It's pretty hard to see what pointless contributions such as this add to the discussion. It's just Sib projecting his moronic prejudices onto others. UKIP are 'hated' by certain sections of British society: Europhiles and Sib-type SJWs - not everyone. It's quite likely Labour are 'hated' by an equal number of non-Labour voters. I doubt whether Sib's opinions or Sib himself would be all that popular in many Working Men's Clubs. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 15:35:13 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 15:42:49 GMT
The answer is obvious. It is more of a former one-man-band and occasional insurgency than a modern nuts and bolts party. Probably Nuttall will wish to redress that and make us more of a campaign instrument. Banks might have been good on the IT based campaign side? he might yet do so? Funds are probably a real problem with our donors spent out from the referendum? Hope it improves. Attacking each other on this Forum is not the answer. My campaign days are largely over but I did as much as most of the committed in my day. I also contribute cash and I have offered to 'ride a phone'. There is a problem. I am not that problem. I don't think that this is a personal attack, more a question. Why are Lib Dems able to blitz by-elections better than anyone else? Why are UKIP seemingly worst at it? It probably does come down to the activist base. Is it culture, commitment, social factors? Looking at your case in particular probably has limited value. You are right to suggest there was no personal attack directed at Carlton, and I have no idea why he got worked up. However, the idea that an elderly person living in the Highlands would help out in Lincolnshire strikes me as somewhat bizarre. Why are UKIP worst at by-elections? Yeah, we're shockingly poorly organised on the whole. I suppose it's just down to only having been a 'serious player' for three years, since 2013. We don't have the experience, the money, the organisation and so on. There's also the small matter of UKIP having turned in on itself, and fighting 'internal' rather than 'external' enemies. Let's hope Paul Nuttall is the man to sort all this out. If he does, then the potential for growth is massive. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 15:47:50 GMT
To suggest that most people who don't vote UKIP 'hate' UKIP is far too strong. UKIP are disliked (1) because it has challenged what had previously been a consensus and (2) because UKIP consistently gets a bad press, even from papers you would expect to be sympathetic, such as 'the Daily Mail'. |
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Post by cuthbertbede on Dec 7, 2016 15:51:06 GMT
Yes, I wasn't intending to attack Carlton. Sorry about that.
I think the point was that if UKIP is to have more of a chance in constituencies like this or, more pertinently, Labour seats in the north, then that needs more than words. UKIP tend to be very good at vaunting rhetoric, but tumble headlong down when faced with reality.
At a national level, that's not necessarily a problem. When it comes to winning a constituency (particularly in a by-election), it's a massive flaw. It's all very well pointing to seats (such as this) and pointing out why they're unwinnable, but even an unwinnable by-election offers the potential to motivate your support base, identify donors, train activists, test messages and so on. Obviously, I'm not in the seat but from reports I've seen there doesn't seem to be much sign of UKIP doing that.
Of course there are good reasons for this, outlined above: a lower potential 'cap' on support, being a newer party with less infrastructure/experience, etc. but at some point if UKIP are going to become a force that can actually win stuff these are going to need to be overcome.
I don't see that happening, which is part of the reason I take all the hysterical 'UKIP is going to oust Labour from their strongholds' coverage with several cellarfuls of salt.
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 7, 2016 16:09:54 GMT
It is not heartland base demographic, but we can't win much at all on just that demographic alone. This is very much the sort of area where I think we should be able to build to a sound 25% second unless there is a charismatic old style Tory who is very anti-EU. These stolid outlier forgotten remoter areas ought to be made ours. We need to be seen to be taking portions of others votes and putting the squeeze on Labour and LDs. I doubt that your party's lurch to the economic left goes down that well in constituencies such as this. Difficult to find the economic centre of gravity for the party as of now Richard, but if it does position to the economic left under Nuttall it would not enhance appeal in these English old-fashioned places as you say. That is why I voted Evans. But I suppose they might get away with a degree of SNP style duality of policy dependent on where they are canvassing? |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 7, 2016 16:15:58 GMT
The answer is obvious. It is more of a former one-man-band and occasional insurgency than a modern nuts and bolts party. Probably Nuttall will wish to redress that and make us more of a campaign instrument. Banks might have been good on the IT based campaign side? he might yet do so? Funds are probably a real problem with our donors spent out from the referendum? Hope it improves. Attacking each other on this Forum is not the answer. My campaign days are largely over but I did as much as most of the committed in my day. I also contribute cash and I have offered to 'ride a phone'. There is a problem. I am not that problem. I don't think that this is a personal attack, more a question. Why are Lib Dems able to blitz by-elections better than anyone else? Why are UKIP seemingly worst at it? It probably does come down to the activist base. Is it culture, commitment, social factors? Looking at your case in particular probably has limited value. My post generally stands up and the personal element was only there as part justification to an attack on my own inaction at Sleaford. The LDs I think will have much more experience and many more members with years of campaign experience. UKIP mass membership is fairly recent and probably a deal older than the LD demographic (or any other party?) with lots like me who are a bit past it or never had any experience. They are probably different types of people as well? |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 7, 2016 16:21:55 GMT
Well most people who don't vote UKIP now tend to hate UKIP (no matter where they stood on the referendum or whatever) so that's an issue. I really don't think that is true. Of course I do know there is a minority that judges us entirely by the label and regards us as near to lepers or the undead, but most reasonable people really do think of us as different, perhaps odd, but part of the mix. I don't think the mass of LDs, conservatives, Labour and SNP actually hate us! Is rthat your real settled view as to the mass of voters? |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 7, 2016 16:25:11 GMT
But those quotes don't back up a statement that 'everyone else hates us' do they? Should we really have to endure this sort of constant totally untrue drip-feed? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 16:33:10 GMT
I think the point was that if UKIP is to have more of a chance in constituencies like this or, more pertinently, Labour seats in the north, then that needs more than words. UKIP tend to be very good at vaunting rhetoric, but tumble headlong down when faced with reality. At a national level, that's not necessarily a problem. When it comes to winning a constituency (particularly in a by-election), it's a massive flaw. It's all very well pointing to seats (such as this) and pointing out why they're unwinnable, but even an unwinnable by-election offers the potential to motivate your support base, identify donors, train activists, test messages and so on. Obviously, I'm not in the seat but from reports I've seen there doesn't seem to be much sign of UKIP doing that. Of course there are good reasons for this, outlined above: a lower potential 'cap' on support, being a newer party with less infrastructure/experience, etc. but at some point if UKIP are going to become a force that can actually win stuff these are going to need to be overcome. I don't see that happening, which is part of the reason I take all the hysterical 'UKIP is going to oust Labour from their strongholds' coverage with several cellarfuls of salt. If UKIP is to have a future, it is with Working Class voters and constituencies. The LibDems are a largely Middle Class party, and such people tend to be more politically active, committed and savvy. UKIPs growth may well come from people who don't generally vote, not the most committed of political activists. It's very hard to know or guess what the potential 'cap' on UKIP support might be. It's worth remembering that only two years ago, Douglas Carswell achieved 60% in the Clacton by-election on a 50% turnout. Presumably, had the turnout been greater, his share would have been even higher. I remember a poll a couple of years ago, in which 30% of people said they would vote UKIP if they thought they had a realistic chance of winning. That's 3% higher than the vote share at the 2014 Euros. In the unlikely event of UKIP genuinely getting its act together, and having the support of a newspaper such as 'the Sun' behind it, that is what we may well get. Looking at the continent of Europe, UKIP's potential might be even higher. Look at the Front National in France, PiS in Poland, the DPP in Denmark, Geert Widers in the Netherlands and so on. As I keep telling people (but no-one listens) support for European Eurosceptic parties on the continent comes predominently from the young. What is to say that a similar shift in attitudes wouldn't happen in the UK? It does not really need spelling out why the Front National is the most popular party in France at the time of writing. A similar series of events in the UK might result in a similar rise in support for the party taking the toughest line. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 7, 2016 16:37:51 GMT
It is not heartland base demographic, but we can't win much at all on just that demographic alone. This is very much the sort of area where I think we should be able to build to a sound 25% second unless there is a charismatic old style Tory who is very anti-EU. These stolid outlier forgotten remoter areas ought to be made ours. We need to be seen to be taking portions of others votes and putting the squeeze on Labour and LDs. I doubt that your party's lurch to the economic left goes down that well in constituencies such as this. What lurch to the left? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 16:39:00 GMT
Well most people who don't vote UKIP now tend to hate UKIP (no matter where they stood on the referendum or whatever) so that's an issue. I really don't think that is true. Of course I do know there is a minority that judges us entirely by the label and regards us as near to lepers or the undead, but most reasonable people really do think of us as different, perhaps odd, but part of the mix. I don't think the mass of LDs, conservatives, Labour and SNP actually hate us! Is rthat your real settled view as to the mass of voters? Sib lives in his own bubble! I would be surprised if even 20% of the British public were on his wavelength. The degree of Labour delusionality bodes well for the future of UKIP. If we can get our act together, then Labour will be as done for in white Working Class constituencies as they are in Scotland. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 7, 2016 16:40:47 GMT
Yes, I wasn't intending to attack Carlton. Sorry about that. I think the point was that if UKIP is to have more of a chance in constituencies like this or, more pertinently, Labour seats in the north, then that needs more than words. UKIP tend to be very good at vaunting rhetoric, but tumble headlong down when faced with reality. At a national level, that's not necessarily a problem. When it comes to winning a constituency (particularly in a by-election), it's a massive flaw. It's all very well pointing to seats (such as this) and pointing out why they're unwinnable, but even an unwinnable by-election offers the potential to motivate your support base, identify donors, train activists, test messages and so on. Obviously, I'm not in the seat but from reports I've seen there doesn't seem to be much sign of UKIP doing that. Of course there are good reasons for this, outlined above: a lower potential 'cap' on support, being a newer party with less infrastructure/experience, etc. but at some point if UKIP are going to become a force that can actually win stuff these are going to need to be overcome. I don't see that happening, which is part of the reason I take all the hysterical 'UKIP is going to oust Labour from their strongholds' coverage with several cellarfuls of salt. No problems. Good points made. Yes, much to do if progress to be made. There is too much hype for a party partly in an uncertain interlude post-Farage and post-Referendum. I think short-term we need to use IT and phones much more. The next year will determine what future we have in the short term. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 16:45:58 GMT
There's little or no doubt that Labour's vote is there for the taking. We need only read Sib's postings here and question what the average person on the street would make of them. The only question is, WILL UKIP make the most of their opportunity? order-order.com/2016/12/07/251193/ |
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Post by cuthbertbede on Dec 7, 2016 16:46:15 GMT
I think the point was that if UKIP is to have more of a chance in constituencies like this or, more pertinently, Labour seats in the north, then that needs more than words. UKIP tend to be very good at vaunting rhetoric, but tumble headlong down when faced with reality. At a national level, that's not necessarily a problem. When it comes to winning a constituency (particularly in a by-election), it's a massive flaw. It's all very well pointing to seats (such as this) and pointing out why they're unwinnable, but even an unwinnable by-election offers the potential to motivate your support base, identify donors, train activists, test messages and so on. Obviously, I'm not in the seat but from reports I've seen there doesn't seem to be much sign of UKIP doing that. Of course there are good reasons for this, outlined above: a lower potential 'cap' on support, being a newer party with less infrastructure/experience, etc. but at some point if UKIP are going to become a force that can actually win stuff these are going to need to be overcome. I don't see that happening, which is part of the reason I take all the hysterical 'UKIP is going to oust Labour from their strongholds' coverage with several cellarfuls of salt. If UKIP is to have a future, it is with Working Class voters and constituencies. The LibDems are a largely Middle Class party, and such people tend to be more politically active, committed and savvy. UKIPs growth may well come from people who don't generally vote, not the most committed of political activists. It's very hard to know or guess what the potential 'cap' on UKIP support might be. It's worth remembering that only two years ago, Douglas Carswell achieved 60% in the Clacton by-election on a 50% turnout. Presumably, had the turnout been greater, his share would have been even higher. I remember a poll a couple of years ago, in which 30% of people said they would vote UKIP if they thought they had a realistic chance of winning. That's 3% higher than the vote share at the 2014 Euros. In the unlikely event of UKIP genuinely getting its act together, and having the support of a newspaper such as 'the Sun' behind it, that is what we may well get. Looking at the continent of Europe, UKIP's potential might be even higher. Look at the Front National in France, PiS in Poland, the DPP in Denmark, Geert Widers in the Netherlands and so on. As I keep telling people (but no-one listens) support for European Eurosceptic parties on the continent comes predominently from the young. What is to say that a similar shift in attitudes wouldn't happen in the UK? It does not really need spelling out why the Front National is the most popular party in France at the time of writing. A similar series of events in the UK might result in a similar rise in support for the party taking the toughest line. I live in the constituency adjacent to Clacton, and Clacton is far from being nationally representative. At the general election Carswell got 44% on a 64% turnout, so I'm not sure your point about turnout is right. And relying on non-voters voting is foolish when the left-wing of Labour do it, and it's foolish when you do it. There's also a difference in a FPTP system between your level of support and your ability to win seats. Sure, if UKIP support were to rocket, winning seats would get easier. Right now, though, if UKIP want to win seats they need to work for them. They don't seem capable of doing so. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,038
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 7, 2016 17:02:29 GMT
LMAO
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2016 17:06:22 GMT
I live in the constituency adjacent to Clacton, and Clacton is far from being nationally representative. At the general election Carswell got 44% on a 64% turnout, so I'm not sure your point about turnout is right. And relying on non-voters voting is foolish when the left-wing of Labour do it, and it's foolish when you do it. There's also a difference in a FPTP system between your level of support and your ability to win seats. Sure, if UKIP support were to rocket, winning seats would get easier. Right now, though, if UKIP want to win seats they need to work for them. They don't seem capable of doing so. I'm aware that Clacton was not representative (it was marked as No1 most favourable UKIP demographic) and of the problems of the FPTP system. At present, the only seats likely to fall to UKIP in a 2020 General Election would be Hartlepool, Heywood and Middleton and Thurrock imho. I also agreed that UKIP was pretty crap organisationally. Of course, that could change. Much would depend on attracting donors (help from across the pond perhaps?). Yes, there would need to be a sea-change for UKIP to pick up significant numbers of seats under FPTP. However, a Scotland scenario in the north of England is not entirely out of the question. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 7, 2016 17:07:09 GMT
Yes agree Cuthbert. UKIP in a post-Referendum phase need to be more concerned with Westminster seats than they did previously, because they will lose all the MEPs and have a slight Local Authority base. In the lead up to the Referendum it made a lot of sense to me to be an insurgency and to maximise vote and support everywhere as a rehearsal for the big event. One seat did not matter but the 4M+ votes did matter and must have been an aid to achieving Brexit.
Now we should still stand in all seats but concentrate effort on target seats using IT and phones with the ground attack going near to where it lives, on to the core short-list targets.
As an individual I am more concerned about achieving a firm 'hard' Brexit than about UKIP as a party. So, a broader UKIP campaign as in 2015 would suit me best. As a stage one assault on Labour, I am prepared to see us do enough damage to the Labour vote to permit more gains by the Conservatives and LDs than by us. Good to see some gains, but happy to see just many more votes, facilitating Labour losses. In Stage two we move in on the marginal and winkle out LDs and Conservatives as a medium term strategy. I have to act on a fairly short term, so seeing Labour severely broken would be enough. If that implies a resurgent LD presence, I can live with that unless they are too anti-Brexit?
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Post by cuthbertbede on Dec 7, 2016 17:13:56 GMT
I live in the constituency adjacent to Clacton, and Clacton is far from being nationally representative. At the general election Carswell got 44% on a 64% turnout, so I'm not sure your point about turnout is right. And relying on non-voters voting is foolish when the left-wing of Labour do it, and it's foolish when you do it. There's also a difference in a FPTP system between your level of support and your ability to win seats. Sure, if UKIP support were to rocket, winning seats would get easier. Right now, though, if UKIP want to win seats they need to work for them. They don't seem capable of doing so. I'm aware that Clacton was not representative (it was marked as No1 most favourable UKIP demographic) and of the problems of the FPTP system. At present, the only seats likely to fall to UKIP in a 2020 General Election would be Hartlepool, Heywood and Middleton and Thurrock imho. I also agreed that UKIP was pretty crap organisationally. Of course, that could change. Much would depend on attracting donors (help from across the pond perhaps?). Yes, there would need to be a sea-change for UKIP to pick up significant numbers of seats under FPTP. However, a Scotland scenario in the north of England is not entirely out of the question. The UK Independence Party, funded from the US. So patriotic (not to mention illegal). A Scotland situation in the north of England? Perhaps not entirely out of the question, but extremely unlikely. |
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