Sleaford & North Hykeham

[Deleted]

Dec 6, 2016 14:36:17 GMT lennon said:

A forum poll for 2nd would be the most interesting if we're going to do one.

Done.

vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/8851/sleaford-north-hykeham

[East Anglian Lefty]

I saw a few photos on Twitter suggesting a decent number of activists out at the weekend. No idea if this was an accurate impression, nor if that was representative of other weekends, and the impact of that is lessened by the limited Labour potential. But it looked to be rather better resourced than Clacton, which is my main comparandum where by-elections are concerned.

[myth11]

Dec 6, 2016 20:47:53 GMT John Chanin said:

I'm watching for the Liberal-UKIP polarization. I expect both to improve their vote. The question is by how much.

Outside of the 2 main towns its a blue kipper area who i expect to vote linc indy or con so i would be shocked if our vote goes up. 

[myth11]

Dec 6, 2016 21:38:26 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I saw a few photos on Twitter suggesting a decent number of activists out at the weekend. No idea if this was an accurate impression, nor if that was representative of other weekends, and the impact of that is lessened by the limited Labour potential. But it looked to be rather better resourced than Clacton, which is my main comparandum where by-elections are concerned.

North Hykeham could end up in the Lincoln seat at next election so they should working that area at least.

[myth11]

my guess is
con 40
lab 16
lib dem 15
ukip 13
linc indy 11
rest 5

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 6, 2016 16:30:55 GMT andrew111 said:

She has blocked here Twitter account again! Approved followers only!

She has a new account here twitter.com/VAylingukip1 which is open. I presume you're referring to her original account which I can see as I was already following her, but she hasn't tweeted from that since 12th November. She has over 6,000 tweets on there so I'm sure there would be something the Daily Mail could try and twist so makes sense to do that

[carlton43]

The HOC vote today might just help a little if it unearths enough 5th Column Conservatives voting the 'Wrong Way' and provides traction in the press and noise for election day. But overall I don't think Ayling will have shifted this enough? If we cannot hit a sound second place then Nuttall needs to hold meeting on 'Why'. This was an excellent opportunity in our sort of territory but it needed plenty of groundwork and a discretely tailored approach to push just the right buttons just hard enough.

[maxque]

Dec 7, 2016 10:05:23 GMT carlton43 said:

The HOC vote today might just help a little if it unearths enough 5th Column Conservatives voting the 'Wrong Way' and provides traction in the press and noise for election day. But overall I don't think Ayling will have shifted this enough? If we cannot hit a sound second place then Nuttall needs to hold meeting on 'Why'. This was an excellent opportunity in our sort of territory but it needed plenty of groundwork and a discretely tailored approach to push just the right buttons just hard enough.

It's not really your sort of territory. Finished 3rd in 2015, only constituency in Lincolnshire where you have no county or district councillors at all.

[carlton43]

Dec 7, 2016 11:22:40 GMT maxque said:

Dec 7, 2016 10:05:23 GMT carlton43 said:

The HOC vote today might just help a little if it unearths enough 5th Column Conservatives voting the 'Wrong Way' and provides traction in the press and noise for election day. But overall I don't think Ayling will have shifted this enough? If we cannot hit a sound second place then Nuttall needs to hold meeting on 'Why'. This was an excellent opportunity in our sort of territory but it needed plenty of groundwork and a discretely tailored approach to push just the right buttons just hard enough.

It's not really your sort of territory. Finished 3rd in 2015, only constituency in Lincolnshire where you have no county or district councillors at all.

It is not heartland base demographic, but we can't win much at all on just that demographic alone. This is very much the sort of area where I think we should be able to build to a sound 25% second unless there is a charismatic old style Tory who is very anti-EU. These stolid outlier forgotten remoter areas ought to be made ours. We need to be seen to be taking portions of others votes and putting the squeeze on Labour and LDs. 

[marksenior]

Dec 7, 2016 12:11:04 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 7, 2016 11:22:40 GMT maxque said:

It's not really your sort of territory. Finished 3rd in 2015, only constituency in Lincolnshire where you have no county or district councillors at all.

It is not heartland base demographic, but we can't win much at all on just that demographic alone. This is very much the sort of area where I think we should be able to build to a sound 25% second unless there is a charismatic old style Tory who is very anti-EU. These stolid outlier forgotten remoter areas ought to be made ours. We need to be seen to be taking portions of others votes and putting the squeeze on Labour and LDs. 

So what effort have you personally put in to winning this seat for UKIP ? I suspect none and that is UKIP's problem .

[Deleted]

Dec 7, 2016 12:45:59 GMT marksenior said:

Dec 7, 2016 12:11:04 GMT carlton43 said:

It is not heartland base demographic, but we can't win much at all on just that demographic alone. This is very much the sort of area where I think we should be able to build to a sound 25% second unless there is a charismatic old style Tory who is very anti-EU. These stolid outlier forgotten remoter areas ought to be made ours. We need to be seen to be taking portions of others votes and putting the squeeze on Labour and LDs. 

So what effort have you personally put in to winning this seat for UKIP ? I suspect none and that is UKIP's problem .

He lives in the Scottish Highlands. What exactly would you expect him to do?

[marksenior]

Dec 7, 2016 13:02:24 GMT @szczecinianin said:

Dec 7, 2016 12:45:59 GMT marksenior said:

So what effort have you personally put in to winning this seat for UKIP ? I suspect none and that is UKIP's problem .

He lives in the Scottish Highlands. What exactly would you expect him to do?

There are Lib Dems who travelled very far to help in Richmond and Witney and the possibility of phone canvassing if UKIP had organised any .

[cuthbertbede]

Dec 7, 2016 13:06:44 GMT marksenior said:

Dec 7, 2016 13:02:24 GMT @szczecinianin said:

He lives in the Scottish Highlands. What exactly would you expect him to do?

There are Lib Dems who travelled very far to help in Richmond and Witney and the possibility of phone canvassing if UKIP had organised any .

Exactly. On polling day in Richmond Park, the Lib Dems had around 900 activists involved. Obviously many travelled to Richmond Park, but a lot were remote, making 13,000 phonecalls just on the day itself (and phonebanks had been running throughout the campaign). If UKIP had the resources to attract in those who could travel, and make sure that those who couldn't could phone, they might well be more successful.

Figures: www.libdemvoice.org/what-a-campaign-52630.html

[carlton43]

Dec 7, 2016 12:45:59 GMT marksenior said:

Dec 7, 2016 12:11:04 GMT carlton43 said:

It is not heartland base demographic, but we can't win much at all on just that demographic alone. This is very much the sort of area where I think we should be able to build to a sound 25% second unless there is a charismatic old style Tory who is very anti-EU. These stolid outlier forgotten remoter areas ought to be made ours. We need to be seen to be taking portions of others votes and putting the squeeze on Labour and LDs. 

So what effort have you personally put in to winning this seat for UKIP ? I suspect none and that is UKIP's problem .

I am 73 and not in good health. I live many hundreds of miles to the north-west in Ross. It is December and rather bad weather.

Care to retract that ridiculous and petulant statement? No!  I suppose not? You are the nastiest and the rudest LD on the Forum by quite a measure.

You are a SENIOR LD and perhaps you would care to share your experience of canvassing at Sleaford as to the size and scale of the LD effort there?

This is a general politics Forum is it not?  Can we not make any comment on a constituency unless we go and work in the campaign? That will be a heavy impost on all of us living in Cornwall, west Wales, Northumberland and the Highlands and Islands!  I merely expressed the thought that UKIP must embrace such opportunities as by-elections in territory that has some promise. I am a paid up member in good standing and I have canvassed up here where I actually live. I see no reason at all why I should not be able to express an opinion without being open to attack from you.

[carlton43]

Dec 7, 2016 13:11:36 GMT cuthbertbede said:

Dec 7, 2016 13:06:44 GMT marksenior said:

There are Lib Dems who travelled very far to help in Richmond and Witney and the possibility of phone canvassing if UKIP had organised any .

Exactly. On polling day in Richmond Park, the Lib Dems had around 900 activists involved. Obviously many travelled to Richmond Park, but a lot were remote, making 13,000 phonecalls just on the day itself (and phonebanks had been running throughout the campaign). If UKIP had the resources to attract in those who could travel, and make sure that those who couldn't could phone, they might well be more successful.

Figures: www.libdemvoice.org/what-a-campaign-52630.html

Errrmmm!    Care to compare and contrast the number of votes cast for UKIP and the LDs in 2015?

[cuthbertbede]

Dec 7, 2016 13:14:32 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 7, 2016 13:11:36 GMT cuthbertbede said:

Exactly. On polling day in Richmond Park, the Lib Dems had around 900 activists involved. Obviously many travelled to Richmond Park, but a lot were remote, making 13,000 phonecalls just on the day itself (and phonebanks had been running throughout the campaign). If UKIP had the resources to attract in those who could travel, and make sure that those who couldn't could phone, they might well be more successful.

Figures: www.libdemvoice.org/what-a-campaign-52630.html

Errrmmm!    Care to compare and contrast the number of votes cast for UKIP and the LDs in 2015?

So UKIP should have an even larger base of people to call upon to help them in Sleaford & North Hykeham (either in person, or remotely).

Why aren't UKIP HQ managing to harness them in the same way as the Lib Dems?

[marksenior]

I was fully aware that you live in the Scottish Highlamds . I also have health problems that restrict my travelling these days but as I pointed out as did cuthbertbede , phone canvassing is an alternative way of helping at long distance .

[carlton43]

Dec 7, 2016 13:18:14 GMT cuthbertbede said:

Dec 7, 2016 13:14:32 GMT carlton43 said:

Errrmmm!    Care to compare and contrast the number of votes cast for UKIP and the LDs in 2015?

So UKIP should have an even larger base of people to call upon to help them in Sleaford & North Hykeham (either in person, or remotely).

Why aren't UKIP HQ managing to harness them in the same way as the Lib Dems?

The answer is obvious. It is more of a former one-man-band and occasional insurgency than a modern nuts and bolts party. Probably Nuttall will wish to redress that and make us more of a campaign instrument. Banks might have been good on the IT based campaign side? he might yet do so? Funds are probably a real problem with our donors spent out from the referendum? Hope it improves. Attacking each other on this Forum is not the answer. My campaign days are largely over but I did as much as most of the committed in my day. I also contribute cash and I have offered to 'ride a phone'. There is a problem. I am not that problem. 

[Richard Allen]

Dec 7, 2016 12:11:04 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 7, 2016 11:22:40 GMT maxque said:

It's not really your sort of territory. Finished 3rd in 2015, only constituency in Lincolnshire where you have no county or district councillors at all.

It is not heartland base demographic, but we can't win much at all on just that demographic alone. This is very much the sort of area where I think we should be able to build to a sound 25% second unless there is a charismatic old style Tory who is very anti-EU. These stolid outlier forgotten remoter areas ought to be made ours. We need to be seen to be taking portions of others votes and putting the squeeze on Labour and LDs. 

I doubt that your party's lurch to the economic left goes down that well in constituencies such as this.

[right]

Dec 7, 2016 13:26:10 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 7, 2016 13:18:14 GMT cuthbertbede said:

So UKIP should have an even larger base of people to call upon to help them in Sleaford & North Hykeham (either in person, or remotely).

Why aren't UKIP HQ managing to harness them in the same way as the Lib Dems?

The answer is obvious. It is more of a former one-man-band and occasional insurgency than a modern nuts and bolts party. Probably Nuttall will wish to redress that and make us more of a campaign instrument. Banks might have been good on the IT based campaign side? he might yet do so? Funds are probably a real problem with our donors spent out from the referendum? Hope it improves. Attacking each other on this Forum is not the answer. My campaign days are largely over but I did as much as most of the committed in my day. I also contribute cash and I have offered to 'ride a phone'. There is a problem. I am not that problem. 

I don't think that this is a personal attack, more a question.

Why are Lib Dems able to blitz by-elections better than anyone else?  Why are UKIP seemingly worst at it?  It probably does come down to the activist base.  Is it culture, commitment, social factors?

Looking at your case in particular probably has limited value.