maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299 
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Post by maxque on Nov 14, 2016 9:46:33 GMT
Not here this week, so:
Abbey, Bath & NE Somerset: LD 32, Grn 25, Con 25, Lab 11, UKIP 5, Ind 2
Annandale N, Dumfries & Galloway: Con 49, SNP 18, Lab 17, Grn 16
Misterton, Harborough: Con 52.2, Lab 26, UKIP 16.4, LD 5.4
Haldens, Welwyn Hatfield: Lab 38.7, Con 32.4, Grn 17, LD 11.9
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Post by marksenior on Nov 15, 2016 21:59:19 GMT
Bath Abbey LD 33 Con 29 Green 22 Lab 10 Ind 3 UKIP 3
D and G Annandale N Con 54 SNP 21 Lab 15 Green 10
Harborough Misterton Con 56 LD 21 Lab 15 UKIP 8
Welwyn Hatfield Haldens Con 38 Lab 33 LD 17 Green 12
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 16, 2016 20:36:46 GMT
Bath: LD 32 Con 27 Green 24 Lab 11 Ind 2 UKIP 4
Dumfries: Con 51 SNP 21 Lab 21 Green 7
Harborough: Con 54 LD 28 Lab 9 UKIP 9
Welwyn Hatfield: Lab 39 Con 41 Green 6 LD 14
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 16, 2016 20:46:32 GMT
Not here this week, so: Abbey, Bath & NE Somerset: LD 32, Grn 25, Con 25, Lab 11, UKIP 5, Ind 2 Annandale N, Dumfries & Galloway: Con 49, SNP 18, Lab 17, Grn 16 Misterton, Harborough: Con 52.2, Lab 26, UKIP 16.4, LD 5.4 Haldens, Welwyn Hatfield: Lab 38.7, Con 32.4, Grn 17, LD 11.9 Would it not be sensible to have a rule that two candidates must not have the same percentage? There must be at least 0.1 between them? Lest say Con 40% and LD 40% in a forecast and one of them wins the by-election............The Forum contestant can then opt to avoid the 10% penalty for making his first choice come in second place! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 16, 2016 21:27:00 GMT
Not here this week, so: Abbey, Bath & NE Somerset: LD 32, Grn 25, Con 25, Lab 11, UKIP 5, Ind 2 Annandale N, Dumfries & Galloway: Con 49, SNP 18, Lab 17, Grn 16 Misterton, Harborough: Con 52.2, Lab 26, UKIP 16.4, LD 5.4 Haldens, Welwyn Hatfield: Lab 38.7, Con 32.4, Grn 17, LD 11.9 Would it not be sensible to have a rule that two candidates must not have the same percentage? There must be at least 0.1 between them? Lest say Con 40% and LD 40% in a forecast and one of them wins the by-election............The Forum contestant can then opt to avoid the 10% penalty for making his first choice come in second place! It is established that in that case a contestant would attract half the usual faults (ie 5 faults) so they can hedge by doing this and avoid 10 faults but are guaranteed 5 faults whatever. Many people have done this over the years. In this particular case it is the 2nd and 3rd party which have the same % and that has no bearing on anything so I don't why there would need to be any rule about that. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 16, 2016 21:58:33 GMT
My predictions for this week:
Bath & North East Somerset UA, Abbey: Green 30, Liberal Democrats 28, Conservative 26, Labour 10, UKIP 5, Independent (Jenny Knight) 1.
Dumfries & Galloway UA, Annandale North: Con 48, SNP 20, Lab 17, Green 15.
Harborough DC, Misterton: Con 58, Lab 25, UKIP 10, Lib Dem 7.
Welwyn Hatfield BC, Haldens: Lab 39, Con 36, Green 15, Lib Dem 10.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 16, 2016 22:00:07 GMT
Bath, Abbey : LD 32, Con 27, Green 23, Lab 13, Ind 3, UKIP 2
Dumfries & Galloway: Con 48, Lab 23, SNP 20, Green 9
Harborough, Misterton: Con 52, LD 25, Lab 18, UKIP 5
Welwyn Hatfield,Haldens: Con 37, Lab 35, LD 18, Green 10
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 16, 2016 23:00:09 GMT
Would it not be sensible to have a rule that two candidates must not have the same percentage? There must be at least 0.1 between them? Lest say Con 40% and LD 40% in a forecast and one of them wins the by-election............The Forum contestant can then opt to avoid the 10% penalty for making his first choice come in second place! It is established that in that case a contestant would attract half the usual faults (ie 5 faults) so they can hedge by doing this and avoid 10 faults but are guaranteed 5 faults whatever. Many people have done this over the years. In this particular case it is the 2nd and 3rd party which have the same % and that has no bearing on anything so I don't why there would need to be any rule about that. Thanks Pete. I didn't know that rule. I appreciated this case was secondary to a first place but it caused me to raise he substantive point. Happy now. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 17, 2016 0:31:46 GMT
BATH AND NORTH EAST SOMERSET Abbey: L Dem 34, C 28, GP 19, Lab 10, UKIP 5, Ind 4
DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY Annandale North: C 51, Lab 22, SNP 19, SGP 8
HARBOROUGH Misterton: C 55, L Dem 27, Lab 11, UKIP 7
WELWYN HATFIELD Haldens: C 48, Lab 37, L Dem 10, GP 5
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 17, 2016 0:38:19 GMT
Bath Con 34 LD 33 Lab 15 G 11 UKIP 5 Ind 2
Dumfries Con 43 Lab 29 SNP 19 G 9
Harborough Con 63 Lab 21 LD 9 UKIP 7
Welwyn Con 35 Lab 34 LD 17 G 14
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Post by hempie on Nov 17, 2016 8:35:26 GMT
Bath & North East Somerset, Abbey: LD 37, Con 27, Green 20, Lab 11, UKIP 4, Independent 1
Dumfries & Galloway, Annandale North: Con 50, SNP 22, Lab 19, Green 9
Harborough, Misterton: Con 50, Lab 20, LD 18, UKIP 12
Welwyn Hatfield, Haldens: Con 39, Lab 37, Green 12, LD 12
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 17, 2016 12:26:40 GMT
Bath & NE Somerset UA - Abbey Con 30.7% LD 30.7% Grn 20.3% Lab 13.2% UKIP 2.7% Ind 2.4% Harborough DC - Misterton Con 51.1% LD 16.3% UKIP 16.3% Lab 16.3% Welwyn Hatfield BC - Haldens Lab 41.3% Con 41.3% LD 8.7% Grn 8.7% Dumfries & Galloway - Annandale North Con 50.2% SNP 24.2% Lab 17.2% Grn 8.4% |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 17, 2016 12:32:59 GMT
Bath & NE Somerset UA - Abbey Con 30.7% LD 30.7% Grn 20.3% Lab 13.2% UKIP 2.7% Ind 2.4% Harborough DC - Misterton Con 51.1% LD 16.3% UKIP 16.3% Lab 16.3% Welwyn Hatfield BC - Haldens Lab 41.3% Con 41.3% LD 8.7% Grn 8.7% Dumfries & Galloway - Annandale North Con 50.2% SNP 24.2% Lab 17.2% Grn 8.4% OK! You have really made your point. Is this really a trend we want to see more widely adopted? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 17, 2016 12:44:10 GMT
Perhaps not, but it's reasonable if one is genuinely conflicted about who the winner may be. And many results are literally neck and neck - I think we had one not long ago which was won by 1 vote. It is irritating if that happens and you have predicted a very close result but end up with 10 faults due to being a handful of votes out in terms of picking the winner. It isn't something I or anyone else does often - i prefer not to and here I was having a bit of fun with you - but it is legitimate enough. I don't think my predictions above are likely to lead to an increased tendency for others to do it
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 17, 2016 12:50:48 GMT
It is established that in that case a contestant would attract half the usual faults (ie 5 faults) so they can hedge by doing this and avoid 10 faults but are guaranteed 5 faults whatever. Many people have done this over the years. In this particular case it is the 2nd and 3rd party which have the same % and that has no bearing on anything so I don't why there would need to be any rule about that. Thanks Pete. I didn't know that rule. I appreciated this case was secondary to a first place but it caused me to raise he substantive point. Happy now.Carlton happy! Public holiday?  |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 17, 2016 13:09:17 GMT
Thanks Pete. I didn't know that rule. I appreciated this case was secondary to a first place but it caused me to raise he substantive point. Happy now.Carlton happy! Public holiday? I know that I come across as perpetually angry and on point of a melt down, but in fact I have a most equable life with far more happiness than Mr. Average. I enjoy every day in the bright fresh Highland air. I can carry on these posts all day without any effect on blood pressure or appetite or need for a drink. (BREAK IN POST) Sudden squall of sleet and snow with whole line of washing out!! Expletives! Back in with it. Sunny minutes ago! I am like a dog that can bark all day without strain to throat or stamina. There are a host of members here who I believe to be very far from happy. I am not one of them. Why would I be? Lovely location for both properties. Adequate income. Lots of wine. Can go anywhere when I want to. Time is my own. No debt. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 17, 2016 17:26:44 GMT
Carlton happy! Public holiday? I know that I come across as perpetually angry and on point of a melt down, but in fact I have a most equable life with far more happiness than Mr. Average. I enjoy every day in the bright fresh Highland air. I can carry on these posts all day without any effect on blood pressure or appetite or need for a drink. (BREAK IN POST) Sudden squall of sleet and snow with whole line of washing out!! Expletives! Back in with it. Sunny minutes ago! I am like a dog that can bark all day without strain to throat or stamina. There are a host of members here who I believe to be very far from happy. I am not one of them. Why would I be? Lovely location for both properties. Adequate income. Lots of wine. Can go anywhere when I want to. Time is my own. No debt. It's only because I know all that that I make such a post.  |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 17, 2016 17:32:47 GMT
Well, I'm disappointed. I was looking forward to a public holiday on Happy Carlton Day, when children would frolic in the streets in Woden masks, the man himself would give a broadcast to the nation, and the adults would get hammered on red wine and malt whisky.
Preferably in February, which is otherwise ghastly.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 17, 2016 18:36:53 GMT
Well, I'm disappointed. I was looking forward to a public holiday on Happy Carlton Day, when children would frolic in the streets in Woden masks, the man himself would give a broadcast to the nation, and the adults would get hammered on red wine and malt whisky. Preferably in February, which is otherwise ghastly. What an enticing though.............A February Bank Holiday given over to alcohol and a Fireside Chat...........With Woden masks. Like it. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 17, 2016 20:35:53 GMT
Ten entries again this week with no additional faults.
Bath & North East Somerset, Abbey: 7 Liberal Democrat gain from Green, Greenhert a Green hold, Carlton43 Conservative gain whilst Pete Whitehead too close to differentiate
Dumfries & Galloway, Annandale North: 100% Conservative ahead on first preferences with David Boothroyd, hempie, Mark Senior, Pete Whitehead & Robert Waller at 50% or more
Harborough, Misterton: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 20% (Lancastrian over Liberal Democrat) to 42% (Carlton43 over Labour)
Welwyn & Hatfield, Haldens: 6 Conservative hold, Greenhert, Lancastrian & Maxque Labour gain whilst Pete Whitehead too close to differentiate
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