Prediction Competition - November 2016

[middleenglander]

There looks to be 27 by-elections during November - a Conservative was returned unopposed in a further vacant seat which would have made 28 if it had been contested.

* 10 on 3rd November
* 4 on 10th
* 4 on 17th
* 8 on 24th - originally scheduled for 9
* 1 on 28th - a Monday

14 of the contests are for District Councils
- 7 with annual elections last contested in May, 1 having had a by-election in the same ward on 15th September
- 2 with "all out" elections last May
- 5 with elections every 4 years, 3 of which are for single member seats
1 is for a Metropolitan Borough where there was a by-election in the same ward on 15th September
2 are for Unitary Councils last contested in 2015
3 are in London Boroughs last contested in 2014
1 is for a County Council contested in 2013
4 are in Scotland and 2 in Wales last contested in 2012.

Conservatives are now defending 10 seats - 5 arising from the death of the previous councillor, 5 after a resignation
Labour is defending 11 seats, 4 following a death and 7 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, 1 a death and 2 resignations
SNP, Green and Independents each defend 1 seat, SNP after a death with Green and Independent following a resignation.

With nominations available for all the 27 contested seats:
Conservatives and Labour each have 26 candidates, Liberal Democrats 24, UKIP 15, Green 11, SNP 4, Plaid Cymru 2 whilst there are 5 Independents contesting 4 seats
- in addition there is an English Democrat, Newcastle First and a No Descrription making a total of 116 candidates for the 27 seats.

[lancastrian]

Banff: SNP 52 Con 30 LD 18
Inverurie: SNP 42 Con 26 LD 22 Lab 10
Cardiff: PC 36 Lab 35 LD 16 Con 8 UKIP 5
Eastleigh: LD 50 Con 25 Lab 15 UKIP 10
Gloucester: Con 48 LD 29 Lab 15 UKIP 8
Hackney: Lab 64 Green 18 LD 10 Con 8
Lancashire: Lab 56 LD 24 UKIP 15 Green 5
Medway: Con 46 Lab 23 UKIP 20 Green 5 LD 4 ED 2
Reigate: Con 60 UKIP 18 Lab 17 Green 5
Glamorgan: Lab 47 Ind 25 Con 10 PC 8 LD 5 UKIP 5

[marksenior]

Aberdeenshire Banff SNP 54 Con 32 LD 14
Aberdeenshire Inverurie SNP 39 Con 28 LD 24 Lab 9
Cardiff Lab 33 Plaid 32 LD 26 Con 6 UKIP 3
Eastleigh LD 48 Con 26 UKIP 15 Lab 11
Gloucester Con 45 LD 30 Lab 17 UKIP 8
Hackney Lab 62 Green 15 Con 14 LD 9
Lancashire Lab 52 LD 26 UKIP 18 Green 4
Medway Con 53 Lab 19 UKIP 15 Green 6 LD 5 ED 2
Reigate Con 62 UKIP 16 Lab 15 Green 7
Vale of Glamorgan Lab 49 Plaid 16 Con 15 Ind 10 LD 8 UKIP 2

[finsobruce]

Aberdeenshire, Banff: SNP 50, CON 30, LD 20
Aberdeenshire, Inverurie: LD 33, SNP 32, Con 28, Lab 7
Cardiff, Grangetown: Lab 35, LD 33, PC 29, UKIP 3
Eastleigh, Fair Oak & Horton Heath: LD 52, Con 27, UKIP 11, Lab 10
Gloucester, Longlevens : Con 40, LD 35, Lab 13, UKIP 12
Hackney, Hoxton West Lab 63, Green 16, Con 11, LD 10
Lancashire, Burnley Central East: Lab 48, LD 31, UKIP 18, Green 3
Medway, Rainham Central: Con 50, UKIP 20, LD 15, Lab 10, Green 3 ED 2
Reigate & Banstead, Kingwood with Burgh Heath: Con 69, UKIP 13, Lab 12, Green 6
Vale of Glamorgan, Gibbonsdown: Lab 44, Ind 26, PC 15, Con 6, UKIP 5, LD 4

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ABERDEENSHIRE Banff and District - Aberdeenshire: SNP 55, C 33, L Dem 12
ABERDEENSHIRE Inverurie and District - Aberdeenshire: SNP 46, C 33, L Dem 12, Lab 9
CARDIFF Grangetown: PC 38, Lab 36, L Dem 14, C 9, UKIP 3
EASTLEIGH Fair Oak and Horton Heath: L Dem 55, C 29, UKIP 10, Lab 6
GLOUCESTER Longlevens: C 58, Lab 21, L Dem 12, UKIP 9
HACKNEY Hoxton West: Lab 66, C 22, GP 8, L Dem 4
LANCASHIRE Burnley Central East: Lab 56, UKIP 24, L Dem 17, GP 3
MEDWAY Rainham Central: C 45, Lab 21, UKIP 19, GP 6, L Dem 5, ED 4
REIGATE AND BANSTEAD Kingswood with Burgh Heath: C 64, Lab 18, UKIP 12, GP 6
VALE OF GLAMORGAN Gibbonsdown: Lab 39, Ind 31, C 15, L Dem 7, PC 4, UKIP 4

[greenhert]

Aberdeenshire UA, Banff: SNP 51, Conservatives 28, Liberal Democrats 21.
Aberdeenshire UA, Inverurie & District: Lib Dem 34, SNP 32, Con 29, Lab 5.
Cardiff UA, Grangetown: Plaid Cymru 38, Lab 36, Lib Dem 12, Con 10, UKIP 4.
Eastleigh BC, Fair Oak & Horton Heath: Lib Dem 50, Con 30, Lab 11, UKIP 9.
Gloucester BC, Longlevens: Con 42, Lib Dem 38, Lab 12, UKIP 8.
Hackney LBC, Hoxton West: Lab 62, Green 15, Lib Dem 13, Con 10.
Lancashire CC, Burnley Central East: Lab 51, Lib Dem 32, UKIP 12,Green 5.
Medway UA, Rainham Central: Con 49, UKIP 18, Lib Dem 14, Lab 13, Green 4, English Democrats 2.
Reigate & Banstead BC, Kingwood with Burgh Heath: Con 66, UKIP 13, Lab 12, Green 9.
Vale of Glamorgan UA, Gibbonsdown: Lab 46, Independent (Harkus) 25, Plaid Cymru 11, Con 8, Lib Dem 5, UKIP 5.

[Robert Waller]

ABERDEENSHIRE Banff and District - Aberdeenshire: SNP 51, C 35, L Dem 14
ABERDEENSHIRE Inverurie and District - Aberdeenshire: SNP 39, C 32, L Dem 18, Lab 11
CARDIFF Grangetown: PC 36, Lab 35, L Dem 22, C 5, UKIP 2
EASTLEIGH Fair Oak and Horton Heath: L Dem 55, C 29, UKIP 10, Lab 6
GLOUCESTER Longlevens: C 45, Lab 18, L Dem 30, UKIP 7
HACKNEY Hoxton West: Lab 60, C 16, GP 11, L Dem 13
LANCASHIRE Burnley Central East: Lab 50, UKIP 19, L Dem 28, GP 3
MEDWAY Rainham Central: C 51, Lab 16, UKIP 20, GP 3, L Dem 8, ED 2
REIGATE AND BANSTEAD Kingswood with Burgh Heath: C 73, Lab 10, UKIP 13, GP 4
VALE OF GLAMORGAN Gibbonsdown: Lab 43, Ind 24, C 16, L Dem 7, PC 7, UKIP 3

[maxque]

Aberdeenshire, Banff: SNP 42, Con 40, LD 18
Aberdeenshire, Inverurie: SNP 38, Con 31, LD 21, Lab 10
Cardiff, Grangetown: Lab 36, PC 31, LD 23, Con 8, UKIP 2
Eastleigh, Fair Oak & Horton Heath: LD 47.2, Con 25, UKIP 17.4, Lab 10.4
Gloucester, Longlevens : Con 49, Lab 23, LD 17, UKIP 11
Hackney, Hoxton West Lab 56, Grn 22, Con 11, LD 11
Lancashire, Burnley Central East: Lab 64, LD 18, UKIP 17, Grn 1
Medway, Rainham Central: Con 52, UKIP 19.8, Lab 12, Grn 8, LD 7, ED 1.2
Reigate & Banstead, Kingwood with Burgh Heath: Con 64, UKIP 15, Grn 11, Lab 10
Vale of Glamorgan, Gibbonsdown: Lab 55, Ind 27, PC 7, Con 7, LD 3, UKIP 1

[hempie]

Aberdeenshire, Banff: SNP 41, Con 37, LD 22
Aberdeenshire, Inverurie: SNP 37, Con 32, LD 23, Lab 8
Cardiff, Grangetown: Lab 34, PC 30, LD 23, Con 10, UKIP 3
Eastleigh, Fair Oak & Horton Heath: LD 51, Con 24, UKIP 16, Lab 9
Gloucester, Longlevens : Con 47, Lab 22, LD 21, UKIP 10
Hackney, Hoxton West Lab 58, Green 20, LD 12, Con 10
Lancashire, Burnley Central East: Lab 63, LD 20, UKIP 14, Green 3
Medway, Rainham Central: Con 50, UKIP 22, Lab 15, LD 6, Green 4, ED 3
Reigate & Banstead, Kingwood with Burgh Heath: Con 61, UKIP 17, Green 11, Lab 11
Vale of Glamorgan, Gibbonsdown: Lab 48, Ind 30, PC 8, Con 7, LD 4, UKIP 3

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 3, 2016 0:46:47 GMT petewhitehead said:

Hackney LB - Hoxton West

Lab 61.5%
Con 15.3%
Grn 13.3%
LD    9.9%


Medway UA - Rainham Central

Con   51.8%
UKIP 17.7%
Lab   16.9%
LD      7.5%
Grn    4.4%
ED     1.7%


Lancashire CC - Burnley Central East

Lab    58.7%
LD     23.1%
UKIP 14.4%
Grn    3.8%


Eastleigh BC - Fair Oak & Horton Heath

LD      49.8%
Con   24.6%
UKIP  14.7%
Lab    10.9%


Gloucester BC - Longlevens

Con   48.4%
LD     25.1%
Lab   16.1%
UKIP 10.4%


Reigate & Banstead BC - Kingswood with Burgh Heath

Con  66.5%
UKIP 16.2%
Lab   11.2%
Grn    6.1%


Aberdeenshire - Banff & District

SNP  55.3%
Con  25.3%
LD    19.4%


Aberdeenshire - Inverurie & District

SNP 35.2%
LD   31.8%
Con 20.1%
Lab 12.9%


Cardiff CC - Grangetown

Lab   32.3%
PC    30.9%
LD    25.3%
Con    9.0%
UKIP  2.5%


Vale of Glamorgan CC - Gibbonsdown

Lab   47.0%
Ind    18.7%
PC    15.6%
Con   9.5%
UKIP  5.5%
LD     3.7%

[middleenglander]

9 entries for the first week of November with nothing from Lennon and still no return of Tony Otim.

Aberdeenshire, Banff & District: 100% SNP ahead on first preferences with all but Maxque (SNP 42%, 2% ahead of Conservative) and hempie (41%, 4% ahead) having SNP 50% or more at 1st stage
Aberdeenshire, Inverurie & District: 7 SNP ahead on first preferences, Pete Whitehead with Liberal Democrat second everyone else Conservative, finsobruce & Greenhert Liberal Democrat ahead
Cardiff, Grangetown: 5 Labour hold with David Boothroyd, Greenhert, Lancastrian and Robert Waller Plaid Cymru gain
Eastleigh, Fair Oak & Horton Heath: 100% Liberal Democrat hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 20% (Greenhert) to 27% (hempie)
Gloucester, Longlevens: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 4% (Greenhert over Liberal Democrat) to 37% (David Boothroyd over Labour)
Hackney, Hoxton West: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 34% (Maxque over Green) to 47% (finsobruce, Greenhert and Mark Senior all over Green)
Lancashire, Burnley Central East: 100% Labour hold with majority all but hempie over Liberal Democrat ranging from 17% (finsobruce) to 46% (Maxque)
Medway, Rainham Central: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 23% (Lancastrian over Labour) to 34.1% (Pete Whitehead over UKIP)
Reigate & Banstead, Kingswood with Burgh Heath: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 42% (Lancastrian over UKIP) to 60% (Robert Waller over UKIP)
Vale of Glamorgan, Gibb0nsdown: 100% Labour hold with majority all but Mark Senior over Independent ranging from 8% (David Boothroyd) to 33% (Mark Senior over Plaid Cymru)

[Robert Waller]

M.E. may have gone to bed by now, but I roughly make it after eight of the ten results, that Pete has a narrow lead from Greenhert, with Mark Senior, myself and Lancastrian vying for third/fourth/fifth.

12.53 a.m.

[Pete Whitehead]

I make it Greenhert in the lead after 8 following very good results in Cardiff and Gloucester. My reliabilty in these matters often leaves a lot to be desired though

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm reasonably sure of myself on this occasion though - I suspect Robert may not have factored in my wrong-winner faults for Cardiff ?

[Pete Whitehead]

These stupid Scottish places have pure fucked me up this week

[Robert Waller]

Yes, definitely a Greenhert win this week, though I think Hempie and Maxque did best in predicting Scotland.

[middleenglander]

Week 1 November

Authority Division / Ward	David   Boothroyd	finsobruce	Greenhert	hempie	Lancastrian	Mark       Senior	Maxque	Pete   Whitehead	Robert            Waller
Aberdeenshire Banff & District	37.6+10	28.0+10	32.0+10	14.0+10	31.6+10	35.6+10	11.6+10	38.2+10	29.6+10
Aberdeenshire Inverurie & District	32.4+10	26.8+10	24.8+10	13.5+10	26.4+10	21.5+10	18.4+10	37.3+10	22.4+10
Cardiff Grangetown	14.8	52.8+10	10.8	32.8+10	18.8	38.8+10	32.8+10	37.4+10	30.8
Eastleigh Fair Oak &N Horton Heath	17.9	17.3	15.3	13.5	23.3	11.3	11.5	14.7	17.9
Gloucester Longlevens	49.8	16.2	8.4	31.8	15.8	16.2	39.8	23.6	16.7
Hackney Hoxton West	17.4	15.2	19.2	27.2	19.2	13.7	29.2	13.6	16.6
Lancashire Burnley Central East	28.3	44.3	37.2	14.3	25.8	34.3	16.3	21.3	40.3
Medway Rainham Central	33.8	29.3	25.3	22.2	33.8	20.7	21.3	18.6	20.2
Reigate & Banstead Kingswood with Burgh Heath	21.6	9.6	15.6	24.6	26.6	22.6	18.6	13.6	3.2
Vale of Glamorgan Gibbonsdown	52.9	31.5	31.5	39.7	31.5	21.8	45.7	16.3	40.9
Total faults Position for week	326.7 9th	301.1 8th	240.1 1st	263.7 3rd	272.8 6th	266.5 5th	275.2 7th	264.7 4th	258.8 2nd

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 4 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

We are having a few days R&R so will be Friday evening before any formal results can be posted.  In the meantime if DROs could please assist.

[lancastrian]

Greenwich: Lab 39 Con 35 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 4
Horsham: Con 48 LD 30 Lab 12 UKIP 10
N Herts: Lab 38 Ind 23 Con 19 LD 15 Green 5
Wandsworth: Con 45 Lab 40 Green 8 LD 7

[carlton43]

Nov 4, 2016 12:53:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

These stupid Scottish places have pure fucked me up this week

Do you remember my comments on Culloden? I was going to comment on these two but saw a note posted saying the Conservatives had hopes and left it at that as it is further away and in an area I thought Boogie might have posted about. The tide is turning here as I have been stating on and off since the GE 2015.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 6, 2016 20:46:58 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 4, 2016 12:53:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

These stupid Scottish places have pure fucked me up this week

Do you remember my comments on Culloden? I was going to comment on these two but saw a note posted saying the Conservatives had hopes and left it at that as it is further away and in an area I thought Boogie might have posted about. The tide is turning here as I have been stating on and off since the GE 2015.

Yes I have become accustomed to factoring a small but discernable pro-Tory swing in al Scottish by-elections lately but this was well beyond the usual