Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 28, 2016 17:03:28 GMT
If Caroline Lucas wants to rally behind the Lib Dems she can do so quite easily by joining them. I really do think that after the price the Lib Dems paid for going into coalition with your party that wishing to inflict a further hideous punishment on them does not reflect well on you. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 28, 2016 17:24:52 GMT
I'd forgotten how fucking nauseating that woman is
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 28, 2016 17:31:27 GMT
Goldsmith (Con) - 56% Olney (LD) - 29 Not sure if other party candidates were included or not. I'm not sure that poll is very meaningful at this stage - the LibDem by-election machine is yet to get rolling and how many people is Goldsmith going to have working for him on the ground? The Tory Party organisation may not be standing against him but how many Conservatives are going to travel to Richmond to campaign for an Independent candidate? I think it is useful up to a point. It is a reminder that there is amounting to climb here for the LDs, even if it is a constituency we held not so long ago. It also shows there is already a swing of 10 points to the LDs relative to 2015 and a 2 point swing away from Goldsmith. It is a start. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 18:02:07 GMT
I might be wide off the mark, but I've recently been wondering if Caroline Lucas sometimes regrets that she is stuck in the Greens.
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Post by A Brown on Oct 28, 2016 18:08:03 GMT
I don't know if the LDs will win or not but I would be surprised if they didn't manage 35-40%.
I suppose it depends on the turnout and whether large swathes of core Tories automatically vote for Goldsmith by default.
I don't know if the LD candidate is any good either.
The sensible message for the LDs would probably be Kramer's 'protecting the city against hard brexit' message which could even pull across a slither of Liberal Tory leavers.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2016 18:18:17 GMT
I lived in Richmond Park for a while. If Goldsmith stands as an independent, the result will be somewhat unpredictable, though I would expect a Lib Dem gain as the most likely outcome. If he doesn't, I'd lay money on the Lib Dems gaining the seat by a large margin. If Goldsmith stands as an indy, I would bet on him doubling the lib dem vote. I don't know how long since you lived in RP, but its banker central and one of the most right wing seats going. And thats exactly what the first poll shows. Smug face. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 28, 2016 18:26:06 GMT
I might be wide off the mark, but I've recently been wondering if Caroline Lucas sometimes regrets that she is stuck in the Greens. you might be, but I do know what you mean. I've felt she was giving the impression recently that she would like to be in a position of power to, well, run things. |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,769
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Post by mboy on Oct 28, 2016 19:38:21 GMT
I might be wide off the mark, but I've recently been wondering if Caroline Lucas sometimes regrets that she is stuck in the Greens. I think she realises that under Corbyn she would be on Labour's front-bench... |
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Oct 28, 2016 20:25:25 GMT
There seems to be a campaign to select a single 'progressive', anti-brexit candidate, selected through an open primary richmondparkunites.co.uk/ |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 28, 2016 20:29:21 GMT
All parties should fight this. Don't give the arrogant sod the satisfaction of his unnecessary ego trip at our expense. It will be a lot tighter with a hard line pro-Brexit, pro-Heathrow Conservative standing and a pro-Heathrow/hard Brexit UKIP candidate, and an anti-Brexit anti-Heathrow Green......................And there should be that choice.
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 28, 2016 22:30:50 GMT
There seems to be a campaign to select a single 'progressive', anti-brexit candidate, selected through an open primary richmondparkunites.co.uk/[bzr] The lib Dems will have delivered 6 leaflets before the progressive alliance have finished discussing it! Labour and the Lib Dems will never agree to step down anyway... |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 28, 2016 22:37:24 GMT
There seems to be a campaign to select a single 'progressive', anti-brexit candidate, selected through an open primary richmondparkunites.co.uk/[bzr] The lib Dems will have delivered 6 leaflets before the progressive alliance have finished discussing it! Labour and the Lib Dems will never agree to step down anyway... 6-leaflets! Call that a delivery? |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 28, 2016 23:50:53 GMT
I might be wide off the mark, but I've recently been wondering if Caroline Lucas sometimes regrets that she is stuck in the Greens. She would make an excellent Labour MP. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 29, 2016 10:29:10 GMT
If Goldsmith stands as an indy, I would bet on him doubling the lib dem vote. I don't know how long since you lived in RP, but its banker central and one of the most right wing seats going. And thats exactly what the first poll shows. Smug face. Goldsmith certainly starts in a good position, but a not insignificant part of this poll will have been a name recognition exercise. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 10:47:16 GMT
And thats exactly what the first poll shows. Smug face. Goldsmith certainly starts in a good position, but a not insignificant part of this poll will have been a name recognition exercise. Goldsmith's success in Richmond Park was in part because of his local connections (his mother Lady Annabel, lives in Ham, and his former brother-in-law Imran Khan used to play cricket on the Common). However, at least equally important was that Goldsmith was able to position himself as "not your typical Conservative". This gave his self-consciously liberal and sophisticated constituents "permission" to vote for him. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 29, 2016 10:53:39 GMT
Just to be academic it would be fascinating to speculate the likely result if Goldsmith had defected to the Green Party before forcing a by-election and standing as their official candidate. He would undoubtedly have lost, but what impact would it have had on the vote shares of the other parties?
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 29, 2016 12:04:43 GMT
Just to be academic it would be fascinating to speculate the likely result if Goldsmith had defected to the Green Party before forcing a by-election and standing as their official candidate. He would undoubtedly have lost, but what impact would it have had on the vote shares of the other parties? Oh! If only. |
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Oct 29, 2016 18:37:07 GMT
Just to be academic it would be fascinating to speculate the likely result if Goldsmith had defected to the Green Party before forcing a by-election and standing as their official candidate. He would undoubtedly have lost, but what impact would it have had on the vote shares of the other parties? Interesting question, he has gone through the commons lobbies to vote for some things most Greens would not support, he has some PR work to do before Greens will except him again. If he switched to the Greens, I would have advised him to take a while before he called the byelection, but could he win a byelection as a Green in Richmond park, I think he could, he has a decent personal vote and depending on who was standing against him, I wouldn't write off his chances. There is a strong enviromentally aware vote in Richmond, given the right candidate to exploit it. |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Oct 29, 2016 20:16:25 GMT
Just seen this tweet from Mike Smithson
Mike Smithson @msmithsonpb
It appears that 2/3 of those sampled in BMG's Richmond Park poll did not give a voting intention. Published figures based on the other third.
So perhaps we should not take this poll overly seriously
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2016 20:19:26 GMT
Goldsmith certainly starts in a good position, but a not insignificant part of this poll will have been a name recognition exercise. Goldsmith's success in Richmond Park was in part because of his local connections (his mother Lady Annabel, lives in Ham, and his former brother-in-law Imran Khan used to play cricket on the Common). However, at least equally important was that Goldsmith was able to position himself as "not your typical Conservative". This gave his self-consciously liberal and sophisticated constituents "permission" to vote for him. Have you seen local election results here? The residents may be social liberals, but they are clearly well right of the economic centre. |
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