Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2017 11:17:45 GMT
87% PvdD
83% SP
70% GL
67% D66
63% PvdA
63% CU
50% 50+
37% SGP
30% CDA
27% VVD
23% PVV
20% VNL
I didn't actually vote for the VAT hike on meat.
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hedgehog
Non-Aligned
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Posts: 6,826 
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Post by hedgehog on Feb 7, 2017 11:26:11 GMT
I took the SelectSmart quiz and scored 100% compatibility with the Christian Union, with none of the other parties getting above 61%. I'm not actually a Christian! Christian Union: Socially Conservative, but economically left wing , with strong environmental policies. Unfortunatly tweedekamer2017.stemwijzer.nl/#intro won't let me get past the first question. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2017 11:50:06 GMT
I took the SelectSmart quiz and scored 100% compatibility with the Christian Union, with none of the other parties getting above 61%. I'm not actually a Christian! Christian Union: Socially Conservative, but economically left wing , with strong environmental policies. Unfortunatly tweedekamer2017.stemwijzer.nl/#intro won't let me get past the first question. I wouldn't describe myself as economically left-wing, and I'm middle-of-the-road on environmental issues. However, with any poll you can only answer the questions you are asked, and the way your answers are weighted is beyond your control. During the US election campaign, I completed a similar quiz, and got dramatically different results when I did the short and extended versions, and when I did and didn't prioritise the answers. |
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hedgehog
Non-Aligned
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Posts: 6,826
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Post by hedgehog on Feb 7, 2017 13:09:52 GMT
Christian Union: Socially Conservative, but economically left wing , with strong environmental policies. Unfortunatly tweedekamer2017.stemwijzer.nl/#intro won't let me get past the first question. I wouldn't describe myself as economically left-wing, and I'm middle-of-the-road on environmental issues. However, with any poll you can only answer the questions you are asked, and the way your answers are weighted is beyond your control. During the US election campaign, I completed a similar quiz, and got dramatically different results when I did the short and extended versions, and when I did and didn't prioritise the answers. Apart from one quiz, the one for the London mayoral elections where I found I was closer to the Womans equality party candidate than our Green candidate, ived always found they are remarkably accurate, which is reassuring for me, (I live in dred of taking a poll that shows me closer to the Conservatives or UKIP). On Political compass, I always hit the same spot on the graph, about as left as I can go and 1/4 of the way up from the liberal base line. Remarkably liberal in my opinion but always consistent, I blame the fact that there is always a question on abortion, now ones less unwanted baby, one less person to make the world unsustainable, but I believe abortion is murder, then again I believe as a man I can't say to a Woman that she should be forced to carry the baby, son I always say on the questionnaire's that I support a Womans right to abortion, if they had supplementary questions, I would appear far less liberal, Should men who force Women into a position where they need an abortion be castrated, yes Should Women who have two or more abortions be encouraged to be sterilised, yes This particular poll on the Dutch elections summed me up perfectly, 100% Green, 91% Christian Union. On another poll on that site, on economic philosophies, it showed Im a disciple of Ghandian economics, which I would agree with. |
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Post by akmd on Feb 7, 2017 13:10:44 GMT
Party for the Animals: 80%
SP: 77%
PvdA: 70%
D66: 63%
GroenLinks: 63%
SGP: 40%
VVD: 37%
PVV: 33%
CDA: 33%
Went for GroenLinks in the forum poll so bit surprised I didn't get a closer match with them.
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mazuz
Conservative
Posts: 155
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Post by mazuz on Feb 7, 2017 14:39:03 GMT
Well, that quiz gave me interesting results. Probably would go for the Forum for Democracy if I were a Dutchman though. Why? Anyway, the Senate just approved a law that gives the Security and Justice Minister (not Ard van der Steur...) permission to rescind the Dutch nationality from people who have double citizenship and engage in terrorist activities outside the country without approval from the court. VVD, CDA, PVV, SGP and 50Plus Senators voted for the initiative. This person then becomes persona non grata in the Netherlands. The Senate also approved a law that allows the government to force terrorism suspects to stay away from certain areas, to refrain from being in touch with certain people and to require them to come by the police station every day. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 7, 2017 18:52:53 GMT
Leading party by province 1946-2012  Exact geographical situation wrt mad polderland grossly oversimplified because sanity etc. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 7, 2017 20:29:56 GMT
Blimey, the CDA really did fall from grace.
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mazuz
Conservative
Posts: 155
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Post by mazuz on Feb 7, 2017 21:22:52 GMT
The PvdA are not only losing the ethnic Dutch vote but also the vote of those with a migration background, researcher Aziz El Kaddouri's Etnobarometer found. The PvdA won 43% of the immigrant vote in 2012 yet will win only 20% in 2017, El Kaddouri projects. This is still a smaller percentual decline than among ethnic Dutch voters. DENK will win 20% of the immigrant vote and Artikel 1 2%. DENK is set to win 40% of Turkish Dutch voters and 34% of Moroccan Dutch voters and is "the party of the angry brown man", El Kaddouri stated. However, fewer than half of the potential voters with a migration background say that they are going to vote, which means this only represents 1 seat for the PvdA and 1 seat for DENK. Surinamese Dutch voters mainly stay with the PvdA, but remarkable is that the PVV comes second with this group: 14% of Surinamese Dutch say they will be voting for Wilders' party. It is mainly Hindustani Surinamese and much less Creole Surinamese who vote for the PVV. The party receives results better than the national average with Hindustanis. In the process of becoming middle-class, many Hindustanis engaged in "Hindustani flight" from Amsterdam to places in the Amsterdam commuter belt such as Almere and Purmerend, though there are also many Hindustani Dutch in The Hague. All people with a migration background:  I like the healthy attitude toward referenda, and the rest of their platform seems sensible conservative/Christian-democratic stuff. And if one has an electoral system that encourages the refreshing of ideas by the influence of small parties, it's a good tactic to vote for a small party with some good ideas. The great success of the coalition experiment in Britain as I see it was to take the Lib Dems' pledge to raise the income tax threshold and make it government policy. I can agree with all this and definitely understand why people vote for them. I think Forum would be a good addition to parliament, but won't be voting for them myself, first and foremost because I don't want to throw away my vote to a party that may not get in once again, and second because their geopolitical position (too pro-Kremlin for my taste) really doesn't sit well with me; I prefer a pro-Atlantic party. I also think that while Forum's message would be welcome, balkanization to the right of the VVD may not be what we need right now. But those are mostly tactical considerations. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,438
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Post by iain on Feb 7, 2017 21:56:11 GMT
Leading party by province 1946-2012 Exact geographical situation wrt mad polderland grossly oversimplified because sanity etc. Small issue, but I believe the island of Goeree-Overflakee is part of Zuid Holland rather than Noord Brabant. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 7, 2017 22:09:00 GMT
Blimey, the CDA really did fall from grace. I think their fall is also symptomatic of the direction Dutch society has been moving, actually, since they are currently polling little better than their 2012 result (this explains why the Democrats66 and GroenLinks, which are both liberal but in different ways, are getting consistently more popular). I believe this is where pensioners' rights party 50PLUS is getting a large proportion of their new voters. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 7, 2017 22:30:03 GMT
Blimey, the CDA really did fall from grace. I think their fall is also symptomatic of the direction Dutch society has been moving, actually, since they are currently polling little better than their 2012 result (this explains why the Democrats66 and GroenLinks, which are both liberal but in different ways, are getting consistently more popular). I believe this is where pensioners' rights party 50PLUS is getting a large proportion of their new voters. Not sure to be honest, as Dutch parties tend to see their votes vary wildly. In 2012, D66 got 8%. In 2006, they were at 2%. In 2003, 4%. In 1994, 15.5%. Those are pretty wild fluctuations. Whilst polling shows them up now, I doubt it's a long-term trend of becoming more popular even if they reach that historic height. Equally, GroenLinks might be polling well now but the last election was an utter disaster and they shed nearly two-thirds of their vote. And again it's not that long since the SP were getting over 16% of the vote and looked like the future. I broadly agree with the idea that society has done for the CDA for now, but I suspect a lot of their vote has headed to the VVD for now. Maybe mazuz or @noordeling might have a view? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 7, 2017 22:39:16 GMT
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mazuz
Conservative
Posts: 155
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Post by mazuz on Feb 7, 2017 22:39:35 GMT
Much of their support outside the south in the 2000s already came from dealigned voters who weren't necessarily lifelong CDA voters, just generic right-wingers who liked Balkenende. In 2010 they went to the VVD and the PVV (some of them still stayed with the CDA) and in 2012 they all went to the VVD, and this did include some people in the South who had always voted CDA. Especially culturally Catholic economic powerhouse Noord-Brabant fits the VVD's law and order + lower taxes brand very well (though the PVV will win a lot of VVD-2012 voters in this province this year).
The two-horse race in 2012 caused the VVD's support to be inflated and weakened CDA and PVV, so 15 to 16 seats is the CDA's "natural" level at this point. It seems the VVD has really overtaken the CDA as most important catch-all party on the Dutch (center) right and due to secularization, the VVD arguably fits most Dutch right-wing voters better than the CDA. I agree with the idea that 50Plus + some of their voters literally dying may hurt them too. Their electoral support skews very old. It's not impossible for the CDA to become much larger than they are right now if VVD/PVV become unpopular on the right, but none of that support would be permanent and the VVD's structural advantage resulting from its secular right-wing profile would probably remain.
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spqr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,906
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Post by spqr on Feb 7, 2017 23:28:20 GMT
Maybe having more than one makes up for the smallness... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 7, 2017 23:33:29 GMT
Sometimes small things can bring great joy. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,799
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Post by john07 on Feb 8, 2017 17:17:45 GMT
Some interesting figures on Dutch welfare "participants" that I cam across. No wonder they are pissed off.  That graph could have come from a Lib Dem leaflet. Oh dear! One for Darryl Huff methinks. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 8, 2017 17:36:48 GMT
Given the earlier comments by mazuz about Surinamese voting for the PVV it strikes me as odd that the graph does not include Surinamese or Indonesian citizens. It therefore makes me suspect that it was not made in good faith, especially as imagine that there are plenty of Surinamese citizens claiming welfare in the estates of Amsterdam and Rotterdam. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2017 17:39:39 GMT
Given the earlier comments by mazuz about Surinamese voting for the PVV it strikes me as odd that the graph does not include Surinamese or Indonesian citizens. It therefore makes me suspect that it was not made in good faith, especially as imagine that there are plenty of Surinamese citizens claiming welfare in the estates of Amsterdam and Rotterdam. - having been burned before on random graphs from the Internet, I checked. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 8, 2017 17:48:23 GMT
Given the earlier comments by mazuz about Surinamese voting for the PVV it strikes me as odd that the graph does not include Surinamese or Indonesian citizens. It therefore makes me suspect that it was not made in good faith, especially as imagine that there are plenty of Surinamese citizens claiming welfare in the estates of Amsterdam and Rotterdam. - having been burned before on random graphs from the Internet, I checked. Fair enough. Still odd of them to pick just those nationalities though. |
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