Lithuanian Parliamentary Election 2016

[Deleted]

Electoral Commission:
www.vrk.lt

[Deleted]

Preliminary liste vote result based on 1197 of 1996 precincts:

Peasant and Greens Union 24.9% 21seats
Homeland Union 16.3% 14 seats
Social Democrats 15.4% 13 seats
Order and Justice 7.2% 6 seats
Electoral Action of Poles 7.1% 6 seats 
Liberal Movement 6.3% 5 seats
Labour 6.2% 5 seats

Anti-corruption coalition of N. Puteikio and K. Krivicko (Lithuanian Centre Party, Lithuanian Party of Pensioners) 5.4% 0 seats (as the coalition threshold is 7%)
Greens 1.9% 0 seats
Lithuanian Freedom Union (Liberals) 1.7% 0 seats
Political party "List of Lithuania" 1.2% 0 seats
Lithuanian Peoples Party 0.9% 0 seats
S. Buškevičiaus and Nationalist Coalition Against Corruption and Poverty (Party "Young Lithuania", Nationalist Union) 0.5% 0 seats
Way of Courage 0.27% 0 seats

[Deleted]

So the Social Democrats so far relegated to third and the Peasant and Greens Union are the big winners. Way of Courage predictably ended last.

List results and first round constituency results:
www.delfi.lt/projektai/balsuok2016/rezultatai-gyvai/

(not finally counted)

[Deleted]

With 1969 of 1996 precincts counted Labour is at 4.71% and will probably not make it. Order and Justice at 5.36% and the Poles at 5.47%.

Peasant and Greens 20
Homeland 19
Social Democrats 13
Liberals 8
Poles 5
Order and Justice 5

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Only four candidates have won in the first round so far: Two from the Electoral Action of Poles and two one from Homeland Union. 

[Deleted]

Candidates in the 68 run-offs:

Peasant and Greens 42
Homeland 42
Social Democrats 21
Liberals 12
Order and Justice 5
Labour 5
Poles 2
Independents 2
Freedom Union (Liberals) 2
Political party "List of Lithuania" 1
Centre Party 1
Greens 1

Pretty bad for the Social Democrats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just if anyone is interested

Proportional Seats 2012

Proportional Seats 2016

Now THAT is some change

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If you're interested the parliament diagrams come from parliament diagrams maker

[Deleted]

Homeland has currently lost one of their constituency seats - it will go to a run-off between Homeland and the Liberals.

[finsobruce]

Oct 10, 2016 8:18:05 GMT @odo said:

Candidates in the run-offs:

Peasant and Greens 42

Sounds like an upmarket health food shop.

[Deleted]

According to Lithuanian news site Delfi both Order and Justice chairman Rolandas Paksas and Labour leader Valentinas Mazuronis have announced they step down as leaders. 

[Deleted]

Oct 10, 2016 7:25:19 GMT @odo said:

With 1969 of 1996 precincts counted Labour is at 4.71% and will probably not make it. Order and Justice at 5.36% and the Poles at 5.47%.

Peasant and Greens 20
Homeland 19
Social Democrats 13
Liberals 8
Poles 5
Order and Justice 5

Final result:

Homeland 21.7% 20
Peasant and Greens 21.6% 19
Social Democrats 14.4% 13
Liberals 9.0% 8
Poles 5.5% 5
Order and Justice 5.3% 5

Anti-corruption coalition of N. Puteikio and K. Krivicko (Lithuanian Centre Party, Lithuanian Party of Pensioners) 6.1% 0 (as the coalition threshold is 7%)
Labour 4.7% 0 
Lithuanian Freedom Union (Liberals) 2.1% 0 
Greens 1.9% 0 
Political party "List of Lithuania" 1.7% 0 
Lithuanian Peoples Party 1.0% 0 
S. Buškevičiaus and Nationalist Coalition Against Corruption and Poverty (Party "Young Lithuania", Nationalist Union) 0.5% 0 
Way of Courage 0.3% 0 

[greenhert]

Oct 10, 2016 8:18:05 GMT @odo said:

Candidates in the 68 run-offs:

Peasant and Greens 42
Homeland 42
Social Democrats 21
Liberals 12
Order and Justice 5
Labour 5
Poles 2
Independents 2
Freedom Union (Liberals) 2
Political party "List of Lithuania" 1
Centre Party 1
Greens 1

Pretty bad for the Social Democrats.

If you access this link: www.vrk.lt/en/2016-seimo/rezultatai?srcUrl=/rinkimai/102/1/1304/rezultatai/lt/rezultataiVienm.html you can find out which candidates have come first and second in each constituency that needs to go to a second round.

One of the independents who finished first was Algirdas Paleckis (in constituency #10, Naujosios Vilnios which in English translates to New Vilnius), who was leader of the hard-left Socialist People's Front, which for some reason did not contest this election at all. Meanwhile, Povilas Urbsys achieved 51.32% in Vakarine (#27) and thus has already been elected. (NB: Save issikele= independent candidate)

The constituencies in which parties have at least an outside chance to gain representation in the Seimas via the second round of constituency voting (when they have not done so via the list vote) are:

Paneriu (#11) for the Greens, Danes (#23) for the Centre Party, Telsiu (#40), Kedainiu (#43), Moletu-Sirvintu (#54), & Traku-Vievio (#58) for the Labour Party,Zirmunu (#4) for the Political party 'List of Lithuania', and Nalsios (#53) & Senamiescio (#2) for the Freedom Union (Liberals).

[Deleted]

Oct 10, 2016 22:16:35 GMT greenhert said:

Oct 10, 2016 8:18:05 GMT @odo said:

Candidates in the 68 run-offs:

Peasant and Greens 42
Homeland 42
Social Democrats 21
Liberals 12
Order and Justice 5
Labour 5
Poles 2
Independents 2
Freedom Union (Liberals) 2
Political party "List of Lithuania" 1
Centre Party 1
Greens 1

Pretty bad for the Social Democrats.

If you access this link: www.vrk.lt/en/2016-seimo/rezultatai?srcUrl=/rinkimai/102/1/1304/rezultatai/lt/rezultataiVienm.html you can find out which candidates have come first and second in each constituency that needs to go to a second round.

One of the independents who finished first was Algirdas Paleckis (in constituency #10, Naujosios Vilnios which in English translates to New Vilnius), who was leader of the hard-left Socialist People's Front, which for some reason did not contest this election at all. Meanwhile, Povilas Urbsys achieved 51.32% in Vakarine (#27) and thus has already been elected. (NB: Save issikele= independent candidate)

The constituencies in which parties have at least an outside chance to gain representation in the Seimas via the second round of constituency voting (when they have not done so via the list vote) are:

Paneriu (#11) for the Greens, Danes (#23) for the Centre Party, Telsiu (#40), Kedainiu (#43), Moletu-Sirvintu (#54), & Traku-Vievio (#58) for the Labour Party,Zirmunu (#4) for the Political party 'List of Lithuania', and Nalsios (#53) & Senamiescio (#2) for the Freedom Union (Liberals).

I am fairly sure he isn't, probably because he only received 47,95% of the valid vote. There should also be a 5th Labour candidate in the run-offs.

[greenhert]

There is, but that particular Labour Party candidate received only just over 11% of the vote compared to the winning candidate's 39%, and therefore has no realistic chance of winning in round 2. That 51.32% was of the valid vote; the 47.95% was of the participating vote (which included spoilt papers).

[Deleted]

Oct 10, 2016 22:43:56 GMT greenhert said:

There is, but that particular Labour Party candidate received only just over 11% of the vote compared to the winning candidate's 39%, and therefore has no realistic chance of winning in round 2. That 51.32% was of the valid vote; the 47.95% was of the participating vote (which included spoilt papers).

Then the rule is the reverse, so its 50% of the participating vote. I am sure he isn't elected. There is another example in constituency 45, where the Peasant and Greens candidate receives 51.58% of the valid vote, but less than 50% of the participating, so its definitely based on the total participating vote.

The directly elected Homeland Union candidate (only non-minority) is Ingrida Šimonyté (42) in  Antakalnio. She was Minister of Finance 2009-2012 and is vice chairman of the board of the national bank.

Which constituency is the 5th Labour candidate in?

[Deleted]

Okay, I found it. Visagino-Zarasų (Nr.52). I am not sure the Labour candidate has no chance as the #1 with 39.96% is from Order and Justice, a party many people will not vote for, so Olga Podolskiené may have a small chance after all.

[Foggy]

Oct 10, 2016 22:53:32 GMT @odo said:

The directly elected Homeland Union candidate (only non-minority) is Ingrida Šimonyté (42) in Antakalnio. She was Minister of Finance 2009-2012 and is vice chairman of the board of the national bank.

She doesn't turn 42 until next month.

[Deleted]

Oct 10, 2016 23:53:24 GMT Foggy said:

Oct 10, 2016 22:53:32 GMT @odo said:

The directly elected Homeland Union candidate (only non-minority) is Ingrida Šimonyté (42) in Antakalnio. She was Minister of Finance 2009-2012 and is vice chairman of the board of the national bank.

She doesn't turn 42 until next month.

LOL 

[Georg Ebner]

Self-non-made maps:
FirstParty/Candidate in FPTP (Although Foggy is inevitably going to protest - correctly! -, that FPTP is also a kind of PR...):


FirstParty in PR:


Conservatives:


Agrarians&Greens:


ExCommunists/SocialDemocrats:


Poles:


PTT (Paksas):


Liberals:


"Labour":


AntiCorruption: