Prediction Competition - October 2016

[lancastrian]

Bracknell Con 65 Lab 35
Bumpstead Con 57 Lab 18 UKIP 15 LD 6 Green 4
Witham. Con 36 Lab 33 Green 18 LD 13
Conwy. Lab 33 Ind(Smith) 32 Ind(Hunter) 20 Con 15
East Yorkshire Con 28 LD 20 Lab 16 Beverley 14 UKIP 12 Ind 10
Kettering Con 40 Lab 32 UKIP 15 LD 9 Green 4
Kings Lynn Con 33 Ind(Parish)22 Ind(Press) 15 UKIP 15 Lab 9 LD 6
Medway. UKIP 34 Con 31 Lab 22 LD 5 ED 5 Green 3
Middlesbrough Lab 55 Ind 23 LD 12 Con 10
NPT. PC 38 Lab 35 Ind 13 UKIP 10 Con 4
St Albans LD 58 Con 18 Lab 14 UKIP 5 Green 5
Weymouth Con 47 Lab 20 Green 18 LD 15

I sense some big scores this week.

[lennon]

Agree about the potential for large scores this week - no idea about some of them...

Central Sandhurst - Bracknell Forest: Con 75%, Lab 25%
Bumpstead - Braintree: Con 45%, Lab 20%, LD 17%, UKIP 15%, Grn 3%
Witham Nth - Braintree: Con 40%, Lab 35%, LD 20%, Grn 5%
Abergele Pensarn - Conwy: Ind(Smith) 35%, Lab 30%, Con 25%, Ind(Hunter) 10%
St Marys - East Riding: Con 35%, LD 21%, Lab 19%, BevPrty 15%, UKIP 5%, Ind(Harrod) 5%
Rothwell - Kettering: Con 40%, Lab 35%, LD 15%, Grn 7%, UKIP 3%
Heacham - Kings Lynn & west Norfolk: Con 50%, Lab 20%, LD 15%, UKIP 5%, Ind(Parish) 5%, Ind(Press) 5%
Strood South - Medway: UKIP 35%, Con 30%, Lab 20%, LD 10%, EngDem 3%, Grn 2%
Central - Smogland: Lab 50%, Con 20%, LD 15%, Ind 15%
Blaengwrach - NPT: PC 35%, Lab 30%, Ind (Evans) 25%, Con 5%, UKIP 5%
Clarence - St Albans: LD 60%, Con 20%, Lab 10%, Grn 7%, UKIP 3%
Wey Valley - Weymouth & Portland: Con 55%, Lab 20%, Grn 15%, LD 10%

[greenhert]

Bracknell Forest UA, Central Sandhurst: Conservative 64, Labour 36.
Braintree DC, Bumpstead: Con 50, Lab 19, Lib Dem 17, UKIP 10, Green 4.
Braintree DC, Witham North: Green 39, Con 38, Lab 17, Lib Dem 6.
Conwy UA, Abergele Pensarn: Independent (Smith) 32, Lab 28, Con 24, Independent (Hunter) 16.
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, St Marys: Con 34, Lib Dem 22, Lab 18, Beverley Party 16, UKIP 7, Independent (Harrod) 3.
Kettering BC, Rothwell: Con 38, Lab 34, Lib Dem 13, UKIP 11, Green 4.
King's Lynn & West Norfolk DC, Heacham: Con 46, Lab 20, UKIP 15, Lib Dem 10, Independent (Parish) 6, Independent (Press) 3.
Medway UA, Strood South: UKIP 34, Con 30, Lab 18, Lib Dem 10, Green 5, English Democrats 3.
Middlesbrough UA, Central: Lab 53, Con 25, Independent (Clark) 12, Lib Dem 10.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Blaengwrach: Plaid Cymru 38, Lab 30, Independent (Evans) 19, Con 7, UKIP 6.
St Albans BC, Clarence: Lib Dem 56, Con 18, Lab 12, Green 9, UKIP 5.
Weymouth & Portland DC, Wey Valley: Con 57, Lab 17, Green 15, Lib Dem 11.

[marksenior]

Bracknell Forest Con 69 Lab 31
Braintree Bumpstead Con 53 LDem 16 Lab 14 UKIP 12 Green 5
Braintree Witham North Con 40 Green 26 Lab 24 LDem 10
Conway Ind Smith 38 Lab 30 Con 19 Ind Hunter 13
East Riding Con 32 LDem 20 Lab 18 UKIP 14 Bev Party 12 Ind 4
Kettering Con 40 Lab 36 LDem 10 UKIP 8 Green 6
Kings Lynn Con 44 Lab 26 UKIP 12 LDem 8 Ind Parish 5 Ind Press 5
Medway Con 32 UKIP 29 Lab 24 Lib Dem 8 Green 5 Eng Dem 2
Middlesbrough Lab 41 Ind 25 Con 18 LDem 16
Neath Port Talbot Ind Evans 32 Lab 29 Plaid 26 UKIP 8 Con 5
St Albans LDem 58 Con 18 Lab 11 Green 9 UKIP 4
Weymouth/Portland Con 48 LDem 20 Lab 19 Green 13

[finsobruce]

Bracknell Forest, Central Sandhurst: CON 80, LAB 20
Braintree, Bumpstead: CON 50, LD 22, LAB 16, UKIP 9, Green 3
Braintree, Witham North: CON 40, LAB 30, Green 15, LD 15
Conwy, Abergele Pensarn: IND (Hunter) 30,Lab 30, IND (Smith)30, CON 10
East Riding, St Mary's: Con 28, Beverley Party 23, Ind (Harrod)15 Lab 14, LD 14, UKIP 6
Kettering, Rothwell: Con 37, Lab 30, UKIP 16, LD 13, Green 4
King's Lynn & West Norfolk, Heacham: Ind (Parish) 30, Con 23, Lab 15, Ind (Press) 15, UKIP 10, LD 7
Medway, Strood South: Con 30, UKIP 28, Lab 21, ED 15, LD 5, Green 1
Middlesbrough, Central: Lab 40, Ind (Clark) 35, LD 15, Con 10
Neath Port Talbot, Blaengwrach: Lab 35, PC 33, Ind (Evans)20, UKIP 8 , Con 4
St Albans, Clarence: LD 55, Con 20, Lab 10 , Green 10, UKIP 5
Weymouth & Portland, Wey Valley: Con 45, LD 20, Lab 20, Green 15

[Robert Waller]

Bracknell Forest UA, Central Sandhurst: Conservative 75, Labour 25.
Braintree DC, Bumpstead: Con 55, Lab 17, Lib Dem 14, UKIP 10, Green 4.
Braintree DC, Witham North: Green 14, Con 44, Lab 34, Lib Dem 8.
Conwy UA, Abergele Pensarn: Independent (Smith) 31, Lab 30, Con 12, Independent (Hunter) 27.
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, St Marys: Con 35, Lib Dem 15, Lab 23, Beverley Party 13, UKIP 6, Independent (Harrod) 8.
Kettering BC, Rothwell: Con 41, Lab 39, Lib Dem 10, UKIP 7, Green 3.
King's Lynn & West Norfolk DC, Heacham: Con 40, Lab 11, UKIP 7, Lib Dem 8, Independent (Parish) 17, Independent (Press) 17.
Medway UA, Strood South: UKIP 34, Con 34, Lab 20, Lib Dem 7, Green 3, English Democrats 2.
Middlesbrough UA, Central: Lab 57, Con 8, Independent (Clark) 25, Lib Dem 10.
Neath Port Talbot UA, Blaengwrach: Plaid Cymru 32, Lab 29, Independent (Evans) 27, Con 4, UKIP 8.
St Albans BC, Clarence: Lib Dem 56, Con 23, Lab 11, Green 5, UKIP 5.
Weymouth & Portland DC, Wey Valley: Con 55, Lab 15, Green 8, Lib Dem 22.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BRACKNELL FOREST Central Sandhurst: C 74, Lab 26
BRAINTREE Bumpstead: C 58, UKIP 16, L Dem 14, Lab 8, GP 4
BRAINTREE Witham North: C 47, Lab 23, GP 20, L Dem 10
CONWY Abergele Pensarn: Ind Hunter 40, Lab 30, C 16, Ind Smith 14
EAST RIDING St Mary's: C 31, Lab 21, L Dem 20, Beverley Party 14, UKIP 10, Ind 4
KETTERING Rothwell: C 39, Lab 36, L Dem 11, UKIP 8, GP 6
KING'S LYNN AND WEST NORFOLK Heacham: C 38, Ind Parish 21, L Dem 14, Lab 12, UKIP 10, Ind Press 5
MEDWAY Strood South: C 33, UKIP 30, Lab 20, L Dem 8, GP 5, ED 4
MIDDLESBROUGH Central: Lab 48, L Dem 24, Ind 15, C 13
NEATH PORT TALBOT Blaengwrach: Lab 36, PC 30, UKIP 16, Ind 13, C 5
ST ALBANS Clarence: L Dem 57, C 19, Lab 12, GP 8, UKIP 4
WEYMOUTH AND PORTLAND Wey Valley: C 47, GP 24, Lab 19, L Dem 10

[maxque]

Bracknell Forest UA, Central Sandhurst: Con 70, Lab 30.
Braintree DC, Bumpstead: Con 60, UKIP 17, Lab 16, LD 6, Grn 1.
Braintree DC, Witham North: Con 37.8, Lab 35.4, Grn 21.4, LD 5.4.
Conwy UA, Abergele Pensarn: Lab 32, Ind Hunter 31, Con 19, Ind Smith 18
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, St Marys: Con 29, Lab 24, LD 14, UKIP 14, Beverley Party 13, Ind 6
Kettering BC, Rothwell: Lab 41, Con 39, UKIP 10, LD 7, Grn 3.
King's Lynn & West Norfolk DC, Heacham: Con 37, Ind Parish 25, Lab 15, Ind Press 11, UKIP 10, LD 2.
Medway UA, Strood South: Con 36, UKIP 34, Lab 25, LD 3, Grn 1, ED 1.
Middlesbrough UA, Central: Lab 54.5, Ind 26.3, Con 14.5, LD 4.7
Neath Port Talbot UA, Blaengwrach: Lab 39, PC 31, Ind 21, UKIP 7, Con 2
St Albans BC, Clarence: LD 50, Con 23, Lab 18, Grn 6, UKIP 3.
Weymouth & Portland DC, Wey Valley: Con 54, LD 21, Lab 19, Grn 6

[hempie]

Bracknell Forest, Central Sandhurst: Con 71, Lab 29
Braintree, Bumpstead: Con 52, Lab 18, UKIP 15, LD 10, Green 5
Braintree, Witham North: Con 36, Green 29, Lab 25 LD 10
Conwy, Abergele Pensarn: Lab 32, Ind Hunter 30, Con 20, Ind Smith 18
East Riding Yorkshire , St Marys: Con 32, Lab 21, LD 18, Beverley Party 14, UKIP 10,Ind 5
Kettering, Rothwell: Lab 40, Con 35, UKIP 10, LD 10, Green 5
King's Lynn & West Norfolk, Heacham: Con 35, Ind Parish 20, Lab 15, UKIP 13, Ind Press 9, LD 8
Medway, Strood South: Con 34, UKIP 30, Lab 26, LD 5, Green 4, ED 1
Middlesbrough, Central: Lab 53, Ind 24, LD 13, Con 10
Neath Port Talbot, Blaengwrach: Lab 34, PC 30, Ind 20, UKIP 10, Con 6
St Albans, Clarence: LD 53, Con 20, Lab 18, Green 5, UKIP 4
Weymouth & Portland, Wey Valley: Con 44, LD 27, Green 15, Lab 14

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 19, 2016 13:08:50 GMT petewhitehead said:

Bracknell Forest UA - Central Sandhurst

Con 73.7%
Lab  26.3%


East Riding of Yorkshire UA - St Mary's

Con   30.1%
LD     20.3%
Lab   16.9%
Ind    13.8%
UKIP  9.6%
Bev    9.3%


Medway UA - Strood South

Con    35.2%
UKIP  28.5%
Lab    24.8%
LD        5.1%
ED        3.3%
Grn      3.1%


Middlesbrough UA - Central

Lab  60.4%
Ind  23.2%
Con   8.7%
LD     7.7%


Braintree DC - Bumpstead

Con   53.8%
Lab   16.8%
UKIP 12.3%
LD     10.3%
Grn     6.8%


Braintree DC - Witham North

Con  36.4%
Lab   33.2%
Grn   18.3%
LD     12.1%


Kettering BC - Rothwell

Con   40.9%
Lab   34.5%
UKIP 12.2%
LD       7.9%
Grn    4.5%


Kings Lynn & West Norfolk - Heacham

Con       39.6%
Lab        18.2%
Ind Par  17.5%
UKIP      10.4%
Ind Pr      7.6%
LD            6.7%


St Albans BC - Clarence

LD     54.1%
Con  21.1%
Lab   14.3%
Grn     8.3%
UKIP   2.2%


Weymouth & Portland BC - Wey Valley

Con  53.7%
Lab   20.8%
LD    15.2%
Grn  10.3%


Conway CC - Abergele Pensarn

Lab     35.3%
Ind H  27.2%
Ind S  25.2%
Con    12.3%


Neath {Port Talbot CC

PC     34.2%
Lab   32.8%
Ind    18.2%
UKIP 10.2%
Con     4.6%

[johnloony]

I don't usually look at this thread, and there doesn't seem to be any predictions for the parliamentary by-elections, but for what it's worth, this is what I think. For whatever reason, I felt it appropriate to predict Witney in percentages bu Batley & Spen in numbers:

Witney

Con 43.4 (-16.8)
LD 27.2 (+20.4)
Lab 14.6 (-2.6)
UKIP 6.8 (-2.4)
Grn 2.9 (-2.2)
NHA 1.8 (+0.7)
Others 3.3 (+2.8)

Turnout 52%

Batley & Spen

Labour 16,100
Kitchin 3,200
Khan 1,300
Hirst (ED) 600
Corbyn Anti (Eng Ind) 400
Furness (BNP) 300
Buckby (LibGB) 250
Edmonds (NF) 150
Mayhew 100
Love 50

Turnout 22,400 (c.28%)

[Robert Waller]

I shall create my own 'Loony challenge'.
I'd like to suggest that in Batley & Spen more of the candidates will get fewer votes than John has predicted than get more.
In fact, I think there's a chance that all ten will get fewer!

[Deleted]

My prediction for Witney

Con 50.4 (-9.8)
LD 24.8 (+18)
Lab 12.8 (-4.4)
UKIP 5.1 (-4.1)
Green 2.4 (-2.7)
Others 4.5 (+3)


Batley & Spen
Lab 78%

[middleenglander]

10 entries this week, all present and correct on parade.

Bracknall Forest, Central Sandhurst: 100% Conservative hold with share ranging from 64% (Greenhert) to 80% (finsobruce)
Braintree, Bumpstead: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 25% (Lennon over Liberal Democrat) to 44% (Maxque over UKIP)
Braintree, Witham North: 9 Conservative hold with majority ranging from 2.4% (Maxque over Labour) to 24% (David Boothroyd over Labour) with Greenhert a Green gain
Conway, Abergele Pensarn: 4 Labour hold, Greenhert, Lennon, Mark Senior & Robert Wallace Independent Smith gain, Davd Boothroyd Independent Hunter gain, finsobruce 3 way tie
East Riding of Yorkshire, St Mary's: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 5% (finsobruce over Beverley Independent & Maxque over Labour) to 14% (Lennon over Liberal Democrat)
Kettering, Rothwell:  8 Conservative gain from Labour with majority ranging from 2% (Robert Waller) to 8% (Lancastrian) with hempie & Maxque Labour hold
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Heacham: 9 Conservative hold with majority ranging from 11% (Lancastrian over Independent Parish) to 30% (Lennon over Labour) with finsobruce Independent Parish gain
Medway, Strood South: 6 Conservative gain from UKIP, Greenhert, Lancastrian & Lennon UKIP hold, Robert Waller Conservative / UKIP tie
Middlesbrough, Central: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 5% (finsobruce over Independent) to 37.2% (Pete Whitehead over Independent)
Neath Port Talbot, Blaengwrach: 5 Plaid Cymru gain from Labour, David Boothroyd, finsobruce, hempie and Maxque Labour hold, Mark Senior Independent gain
St Albans, Clarence: 100% Liberal Democrat hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 27% (Maxque) to 40% (Lancastrian, Lennon & Mark Senior)
Weymouth & Portland, Wye Valley: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 17% (hempie over Liberal Democrat) to 40% (Greenhert over Labour)

[Robert Waller]

Oct 20, 2016 18:45:17 GMT Robert Waller said:

I shall create my own 'Loony challenge'.
I'd like to suggest that in Batley & Spen more of the candidates will get fewer votes than John has predicted than get more.
In fact, I think there's a chance that all ten will get fewer!

Result of my 'challenge' is, I think, Loony 4 Waller 6.

Apart from sounding like a lower division Scottish football result, does that mean I'm nearly equal to being a Loony?!

[Robert Waller]

Back to the realms of Sanity (and local byelections), I think Pete has won this week convincingly from Maxque and Lancastrian.
Pete may have taken the lead from Maxque for the month, though in any case I think those two will still be contending overall even though there are fewer elections next week.
I believe I am in even more splendid isolation in third place, quite a way behind these two and ahead of anyone else. Hempie, David Boothroyd and Lancastrian all look pretty close for fourth for the month.

[middleenglander]

Try this for week 3:

Authority Divsion / Ward	David   Boothroyd	finsobruce	Greenhert	hempie	Lancastrian	Lennon	Mark      Senior	Maxque	Pete  Whitehead	Robert      Waller
Bracknall Forest - Central Sandhurst	9.4	21.4	10.6	3.4	8.6	11.4	0.6	1.4	8.8	11.4
Braintree - Bumpstead	14.2	44.6	40.6	26.1	19.4	42.6	30.1	18.4	38.9 27.9	30.6
Braintree - Witham North	39.1+10	35.1+10	40.9+10	24.9+10	23.1+10	45.1+10	26.9+10	11.5+10	22.1+10	29.1+10
Conway - Abergele Pensarn	26.5	15.4+6.7	31.1+10	21.3+10	25.4+10	43.1+10	37.1+10	19.3+10	20.1+10	17.4+10
East Riding of Yorkshire - St Mary's	40.1+10	60.9+10	38.5+10	44.1+10	44.9+10	38.1+10	40.9+10	52.1+10	43.4+10	50.1+10
Kettering - Rothwell	18.7	33.8	23.8	27.0+10	23.8	25.6	16.7	23.0+10	16.2	20.0
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk  - Heacham	38.3+10	35.5	72.3+10	35.4+10	35.0+10	75.9+10	70.3+10	37.0+10	42.6+10	43.0+10
Medway - Strood South	26.2	36.0	36.2+10	12.6	28.0+10	36.0+10	20.2	17.0	13.8	26.0+5
Middlesbrough - Central	49.8	65.8	45.5	39.8	35.8	45.8	63.8	38.0	25.0	31.8
Neath Port Talbot - Blaengwrach	35.9+10	30.6+10	25.6	35.9+10	19.9	33.6	47.6+10	36.6+10	27.5	35.6
St Albans - Clarence	10.0	15.8	13.8	18.0	14.2	12.0	14.0	16.0	11.4	8.0
Weymouth & Portland - Wey Valley	41.4	34.5	19.4	36.5	31.4	25.4	28.5	23.9	17.6	17.9
Total faults for week	389.6	466.2	448.3	385.2	359.6	484.6	446.6	354.3	327.7 316.7	365.9
Position for week	6th	9th	8th	5th	3rd	10th	7th	2nd	1st	4th

and for the month to date corrected:

776.2 Pete Whitehead - amended from 787.2
780.3 Maxque

839.8 Robert Waller

905.6 hempie
911.9 Lancastrian
915.6 David Boothroyd

951.1 Mark Senior
958.9 Greenhert

1052.4 finsobruce
1111.5 Lennon

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 3 by-elections in the last week of October.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

Apologies for the late posting but I have had no broadband for the best part of 15 hours today.

[Pete Whitehead]

Could you check my faults for Bumpstead please? Doesn't look right to me

[middleenglander]

Oct 21, 2016 19:54:43 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Could you check my faults for Bumpstead please? Doesn't look right to me

Quite correct. I had mixed up predictions for Green and UKIP. Now corrected above.

[lancastrian]

Denbighshire. Lab 42 Ind(Webster) 23 Con 18 Ind(Shone) 12 LD 5
Collington Ind 51 Con 28 UKIP 12 Lab 9
Darwell Con 45 LD 28 UKIP 10 Lab 9 Green 8