Prediction Competition - October 2016

[middleenglander]

It looks like 34 by-elections during October 2016:
* 9 on 6th October
* 10 on 13th
* 12 on 20th
* 3 on 27th

15 of the by-elections are in District Councils
- 11 with a 4 year electoral cycle last contested in 2015
- 4 with an annual cycle although only 2 had elections last May
6 are for Unitary Authorities
- 5 with a four yearly cycle last contested in 2015, 1 an annual cycle with elections in May
1 is for a Metropolitan Borough where there were elections in May
3 are in London Boroughs last contested in 2014
2 are for County Councils last contested in 2013 although one had a 2014 by-election
5 are in Wales together with
2 in Scotland where the previous elections were in 2012

Conservatives are defending 13 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 9 a resignation
Labour defend 15 seats, 6 after a death and 9 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 3 seats, all after a resignation whilst
Independents, Lincolnshire Independents and UKIP each defend 1 seat after a resignation.

With all nominations now known for the 34 by-elections:
Conservatives are contesting 32 seats, Labour 31, Liberal Democrats 28, UKIP 20, Greens 18, Plaid Cymru 3, SNP 2 whilst there are 16 Independents contesting 10 seats
there are 6 resident candidates (East Devon Independent Alliance, Beverley Party, Limpsfield Resident, Lincolnshire Independent, Morecambe Bay Independent and Putting Hartlepool First )
together with one each for English Democrat, Patients before Profit, People before Profit and Women's Equality
- a total of 160 candidates for the 34 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.

[lennon]

Basingstoke & Deane BC, Basing - Con 65%, LD 28%, Lab 7%
Bolton MB, Rumworth - Con 20%, Lab 60%, LD 10%, Green 3%, UKIP 7%
Caerphilly UA, Gilfach - Lab 50%, Plaid 35%, Green 5%, UKIP 10%
Caerphilly UA, Risca East - Lab 45%, LD 15%, Plaid 30%, UKIP 10%
East Devon DC, Exmouth Brixington - LD 35%, Con 33%, IEDA 32%
Glasgow UA, Garscadden & Scotstounhill - Con 5%, Lab 40%, LD 10%, SNP 35%, Green 5%, UKIP 5%
Haringey LB, St Ann's - Con 5%, Lab 65%, LD 13%, Green 15%, UKIP 2%
Hartlepool UA, Headland & Harbour - Con 15%, Lab 35%, UKIP 25%, Putting Hartlepool First 15%, Patients not Profit 5%, Ind 5%
Highland UA, Cullodon & Ardersier - Ind (McGrath) 25%, LD 22%, SNP 18%, Ind (MacPherson) 12%, Lab 10%, Ind (Ross) 5%, Con 3%, Grn 3%, Ind (Lamont) 2%

[peterl]

Going to give this a shot this month, I'm sure I'll be a long way off on most of them but we shall see.

Basingstoke BC Basing Ward Conservative 62% Lib Dem 26% Labour 12%
Bolton MBC Rumworth Ward Labour 64% Conservative 15% UKIP 12% Lib Dem 5% Green 4%
Caerphilly Council Gilfach Ward Labour 70% Plaid Cymru 21% UKIP 5% Green 4%
Caerphilly Council Risca East Ward Labour 63% Lib Dems 20% Plaid Cymru 12% UKIP 5%
East Devon DC Exmouth Brixington Ward Conservative 42% IEDA 33% Lib Dems 25%
Haringey LBC St Ann's Ward Labour 65% Green 17% Conservative 8% Lib Dems 6% UKIP 4%
Glasgow Council Garscadden/Scotstounhill Ward Labour 42% SNP 39% Green 7% Conservative 6% Lib Dems 4% UKIP 2%
Hartlepool BC Headland & Harbour Ward UKIP 31% Labour 30% Putting Hartlepool First 18% Independent 10% Conservative 6% Patients not profits in our NHS 5%
Highland Council Culloden and Ardersier Ward Ind (McGrath) 27%, SNP 24%, Lib Dems 15%, Ind (MacPherson) 10%, Lab 8%, Ind (Ross) 7%, Green 4%, Conservative 3%, Ind (Lamont) 2%

[Robert Waller]

Basingstoke & Deane BC, Basing - Con 57%, LD 33%, Lab 10%
Bolton MB, Rumworth - Con 15%, Lab 70%, LD 5%, Green 3%, UKIP 7%
Caerphilly UA, Gilfach - Lab 56%, Plaid 20%, Green 4%, UKIP 20%
Caerphilly UA, Risca East - Lab 52%, LD 10%, Plaid 19%, UKIP 19%
East Devon DC, Exmouth Brixington - LD 30%, Con 40%, IEDA 30%
Glasgow UA, Garscadden & Scotstounhill - Con 6%, Lab 43%, LD 4%, SNP 42%, Green 3%, UKIP 2%
Haringey LB, St Ann's - Con 12%, Lab 56%, LD 15%, Green 15%, UKIP 2%
Hartlepool UA, Headland & Harbour - Con 10%, Lab 36%, UKIP 30%, Putting Hartlepool First 16%, Patients not Profit 4%, Ind 4%
Highland UA, Cullodon & Ardersier - Ind (McGrath) 7%, LD 20%, SNP 25%, Ind (MacPherson) 17%, Lab 13%, Ind (Ross) 5%, Con 6%, Grn 2%, Ind (Lamont) 5%

[marksenior]

Basingstoke Con 66 LDem 23 Lab 11
Bolton Lab 66 Con 15 UKIP 10 Green 5 LD 4
Caerphilly Gilfach Lab 60 Plaid 20 UKIP 14 Green 6
Caerphilly Risca East Lab 59 Plaid 19 LDem 13 UKIP 9
East Devon Con 44 IEDA 32 LDem 24
Glasgow Lab 43 SNP 39 Con 7 Green 5 LDem 4 UKIP 2
Haringey Lab 57 Green 16 LDem 14 Con 9 UKIP 4
Hartlepool Lab 35 UKIP 30 PHF 19 Con 7 PNP 6 Ind 3
Highland SNP 22 Ind MacP 18 LDem 16 Ind McG 13 Lab 11 Ind Ross 7 Con 7 Green 4 Ind Lamont 2

[lancastrian]

Basingstoke Con 65 LD 23 Lab 12
Bolton. Lab 65 UKIP 13 LD 11 Con 8 Green 3
Caerphilly Gilfach Lab 58 PC 25 UKIP 12 Green 5
Caerphilly Risca. Lab 60 PC 27 UKIP 8 LD 5
East Devon. LD 35 IEDA 33 Con 32
Glasgow Lab 45 SNP 40 Con 6 Green 4 LD 3 UKIP 2
Haringey Lab 50 LD 24 Green 13 Con 8 UKIP 5
Hartlepool Lab 34 UKIP 32 PHF 19 Ind 6 Con 6 NHA 3
Highland SNP 23 LD 19 Ind(MacP) 15 Ind(McG) 11 Lab 10 Con 8 Ind(Ross) 6 Green 5 Ind(Lamont) 3

[greenhert]

Basingstoke BC, Basing: Conservative 67, Liberal Democrats 23, Labour 10.
Bolton MBC, Rumworth: Lab 66, Con 12, UKIP 12, Green 5, Lib Dem 5.
Caerphilly UA, Gilfach: Lab 67, Plaid Cymru 20, UKIP 10, Green 3.
Caerphilly UA, Risca East: Lab 59, Plaid Cymru 16, Lib Dem 16, UKIP 9.
East Devon DC, Exmouth Brixington: Con 41, Independent East Devon Alliance 32, Lib Dem 27.
Glasgow UA, Garscadden/Scotstounhill (1st preference votes): Lab 44, SNP 38, Green 7, Con 6, Lib Dem 3, UKIP 2.
Haringey LBC, St Ann's: Lab 54, Green 20, Lib Dem 13, Con 10, UKIP 3.
Hartlepool UA, Headland & Harbour: Lab 34, UKIP 31, Putting Hartlepool First 20, Profits Not Patients 7, Con 6, Ind (Broadbent) 2.
Highland UA, Culloden & Ardersier (1st preference votes): SNP 23, Ind (MacPherson) 18, Lib Dem 16, Ind (McGrath) 11, Lab 9, Ind (Ross) 8, Green 6, Con 6, Ind (Lamont) 3.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BASINGSTOKE and DEANE Basing: C 66, L Dem 24, Lab 10
BOLTON Rumworth: Lab 68, UKIP 15, C 10, L Dem 4, GP 3
CAERPHILLY Gilfach: Lab 53, UKIP 27, PC 16, GP 4
CAERPHILLY Risca East: Lab 51, UKIP 20, PC 19, L Dem 10
EAST DEVON Exmouth Brixington: C 49, IEDA 32, L Dem 19
GLASGOW Garscadden/Scotstounhill: Lab 44, SNP 42, SGP 6, C 4, L Dem 3, UKIP 1
HARINGEY St Ann's: Lab 56, L Dem 16, GP 15, C 12, UKIP 1
HARTLEPOOL Headland and Harbour: UKIP 35, Lab 31, PHF 16, C 11, Ind 4, PNPION 3
HIGHLAND Culloden and Ardersier: SNP 30, L Dem 19, Ind MacPherson 13, Lab 11, C 9, Ind McGrath 8, Ind Ross 4, SGP 4, Ind Lamont 2

[finsobruce]

Basingstoke and Deane, Basing: Con 59, Lib Dem 32, Lab 9
Bolton, Rumworth: Lab 60, UKIP 15, Con 10, LD 9, GP 6
Caerphilly, Gilfach: Lab 55, PC 20, UKIP 20, GP 5
Caerphilly, Risca: Lab 55, UKIP 20, PC 20, Lib Dem 5
East Devon, Exmouth Brixington: IEDA 40, CON 30, LD 30
Glasgow, Garscadden, Scotstounhill: Lab 40, SNP 39, SGP 10,Con 5, LD 5, UKIP 1
Haringey, St Anns, Lab 60, GP 19, LD 15, Con 5 , UKIP 1
Hartlepool, Headland and Harbour: Lab 32, PHF 28, UKIP 23, CON 9, PNP 5, IND 3
Highland, Culloden and Ardesier: SNP 25, IND (Macpherson)20, Ind (Mcgrath) 15, LD 15, Lab 11, Ind Ross 5, Con 5 , Ind(Lamont)2, SGP 2

[hempie]

Basingstoke, Basing: Conservative 59, LD 30, Lab 11
Bolton, Rumworth: Lab 60, Con 17, UKIP 12, LD 6, Green 5
Caerphilly, Gilfach: Lab 50, PC 32, UKIP 14, Green 4
Caerphilly, Risca East: Lab 54, PC 20, LD 13, UKIP 13
East Devon, Exmouth Brixington: LD 35, Con 33, IEDA 32
Glasgow, Garscadden/Scotstounhill: Lab 42, SNP 38, Green 9, Con 4, LD 4, UKIP 3
Haringey, St Ann's: Lab 50, Green 20, LD 18, Con 9, UKIP 3
Hartlepool, Headland & Harbour: Lab 35, UKIP 30, PHF 15, PNP 10, Con 6, Ind 4.
Highland, Culloden & Ardersier: SNP 24, LD 20, Ind (MacPherson) 17,Ind (McGrath) 10, Lab 9, Ind (Ross) 7, Green 5, Con 4, Ind (Lamont) 4

[maxque]

Basingstoke and Deane, Basing: Con 65, LD 22, Lab 13
Bolton, Rumworth: Lab 72.2, Con 10.5, Grn 8, UKIP 6, LD 3.3
Caerphilly, Gilfach: Lab 64, UKIP 19, PC 16, Grn 1
Caerphilly, Risca: Lab 54, PC 26, LD 12, UKIP 8
East Devon, Exmouth Brixington: Con 46, IEDA 34, LD 20
Glasgow, Garscadden, Scotstounhill: SNP 44, Lab 43, Con 6, Grn 4, UKIP 2, LD 1
Haringey, St Anns, Lab 55, Grn 21, LD 13, Con 7, UKIP 4
Hartlepool, Headland and Harbour: Lab 41, UKIP 34.9, PHF 10.1, Con 8.8, NHAP 4.1, IND 1.1
Highland, Culloden and Ardesier: SNP 28, LD 19, Ind Macpherson 17, Con 10, Lab 9, Ind Mcgrath 6, Ind Ross 6, Grn 4, Ind Lamont 1

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 5, 2016 18:33:42 GMT petewhitehead said:

Haringey LB - St Ann's

Lab   57.8%
LD    16.5%
Grn  14.1%
Con    7.9%
UKIP   3.7%


Bolton MB - Rumworth

Lab   70.5%
Con  11.8%
UKIP   6.7%
LD       6.1%
Grn     4.9%


Hartlepool UA - Headland & Harbour

Lab        36.7%
UKIP      30.1%
PHF        18.3%
Con          7.9%
PNPNHS  5.4%
Ind            1.6%


Basingtoke BC - Basing

Con 61.8%
LD    22.3%
Lab  15.9%


East Devon DC - Exmouth Brixington

Ind   37.3%
Con  34.7%
LD    28.0%


Glasgow - Garscadden/Scotstounhill

Lab  49.2%
SNP 38.1%
Con   5.1%
Grn    3.3%
LD      3.2%
UKIP  1.1%


Highland - Culloden & Ardersier

SNP        27.8%
LD           21.2%
Lab         13.3%
Ind McP 11.8%
Ind McG   8.3%
Con           5.8%
Ind L          4.6%
Ind R         3.7%
Grn           3.5%


Caerphilly CC - Gilfach

Lab   64.9%
UKIP 16.4%
PC     15.4%
Grn     3.3%


Caerphilly CC - Risca East

Lab    57.3%
PC     19.7%
UKIP 16.3%
LD        6.6%

[carlton43]

In the Highland election we should have an indicator as to whether the Conservatives are making any comeback in this sort of ward. It is just east of Inverness and pre-Nairnshire. It has acres of new housing estates for Inverness with much owner occupier. It will have a higher than average incomer profile and be younger than average and fairly fully employed. None of your forecasts are above 10% and most much lower. I would hope to see improvement here to 15% or more even without a lot of ground work. The inhibitor would be a LD 'No one but us can seriously challenge the SNP' leaflet.

[middleenglander]

11 entries this week with all ship-shape and Bristol fashion apart from Pete Whitehead who gets 0.1 additional faults for adding to 99.9% in Caerphilly, Risca East.

Basingstoke & Deane, Basing: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Liberal Democrat ranging from 24% (Robert Waller) to 44% (Greenhert)
Bolton, Rumworth: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 40% (Lennon over Conservative) to 61.7% (Maxque over Conservative)
Caerphilly, Gilfach: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 15% (Lennon over Plaid Cymru) to 49% (peter1 over Plaid Cymru)
Caerphilly, Risca East: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 15% (Lennon over Plaid Cymru) to 43% (peter1 over Liberal Democrat & Greenhert over both Liberal Democrat & Plaid Cymr)
East Devon, Exmouth Brixington: 6 Conservative hold, hempie, Lancastrian & Lennon a Liberal Democrat gain with finsobruce & Pete Whitehead an Independent Alliance gain
Glasgow, Garscadden & Scotstounhill: 10 Labour ahead of SNP on first preference by between 1% (finsobruce & Robert Waller) and 11.1% (Pete Whitehead) with Maxque SNP ahead
Haringey, St Ann's: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 30% (hempie over Green) to 50% (Lennon over Green)
Hartlepool, Headland & Harbour: 9 Labour hold with majority over UKIP ranging from 2% (Lancastrian) to 10% (Lennon) with David Boothroyd and peter1 UKIP gain
Highland, Culloden & Ardersier: 9 SNP ahead on first preferences but maximum 30% share (David Boothroyd) with Lennon & peter1 Independent McGrath ahead

[middleenglander]

See whether this works:

Authority	Basingstoke  & Deane	Bolton	Caerphilly	Caerphilly	East Devon	Glasgow	Haringey	Hartlepool	Highland	Total
Ward / Division	Basing	Rumworth	Gilfach	Risca East	Exmouth Brixington	Garscadden /  Scotstounhill	St Ann's	Headland & Harbour	Cullodon & Ardersier	faults
David Boothroyd		20.8	46.1	15.8	17.3	14.9+10	24.1	29.5	33.5	211.9
finsobruce		33.7	34.1	10.2	22.1+10	18.9+10	12.6	52.3+10	51.3	265.2
Greenhert		21.7	28.3	19.8	1.4	17.6+10	19.3	37.5+10	37.3	202.9
hempie		33.7	20.1	18.3	16.1+10	21.6+10	27.3	39.0+10	41.9	248.0
Lancastrian		26.8	18.3	20.8	18.1+10	15.2+10	36.2	35.5+10	37.9	238.9
Lennon		41.0	15.7	42.3	16.1+10	25.6+10	8.2	49.0+10	63.9+10	301.8
Mark Senior		21.7	28.3	16.5	7.3	13.6+10	16.2	38.3+10	43.3	205.3
Maxque		15.8	37.5	28.3	15.3	11.9	17.3	42.0+10	27.5	205.6
peter1		26.8	29.1	35.8	5.3	15.6+10	9.4	36.3	49.3+10	227.6
Pete Whitehead		17.5	37.5	5.0+0.1	12.7+10	23.3+10	18.4	40.1+10	41.5	226.2
Robert Waller		21.0	32.1	13.8	4.7	13.2+10	22.1	38.3+10	45.9	211.1

[Robert Waller]

After the first 4 results I have Peterl and Mark Senior leading, but really nothing significant between all 11 competitors.

Edit, after 5: Pete W and Mark S.

Edit after 7: Mark but only by about 5 from a bunch of others, it'll come down to the nine-candidate Highlands race.

[Pete Whitehead]

After 8 I've dropped out of the running with Mark taking the lead and Robert, Maxque and David all bunched very closely just behind. Basingstoke not likely to have very much impact on that

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 6, 2016 13:32:16 GMT carlton43 said:

In the Highland election we should have an indicator as to whether the Conservatives are making any comeback in this sort of ward. It is just east of Inverness and pre-Nairnshire. It has acres of new housing estates for Inverness with much owner occupier. It will have a higher than average incomer profile and be younger than average and fairly fully employed. None of your forecasts are above 10% and most much lower. I would hope to see improvement here to 15% or more even without a lot of ground work. The inhibitor would be a LD 'No one but us can seriously challenge the SNP' leaflet.

+

Good call

[Robert Waller]

Oct 7, 2016 11:19:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

After 8 I've dropped out of the running with Mark taking the lead and Robert, Maxque and David all bunched very closely just behind. Basingstoke not likely to have very much impact on that

Greenhert in lead after 8?

[Pete Whitehead]

Not on my figures - which means I may have entered his predictions incorrectly

... or actually not even entered his prediction for Culloden, therefore giving him 100 faults there