Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Sept 24, 2016 9:29:05 GMT
Given the fact that Corbyn has a 99% chance of being re-elected according to Betfair this morning, I am creating this thread to ask "Which Labour MP will be the first to resign the Labour whip / defect to another party after Corbyn's re-election" and then to be used to keep a tally on those MP's that do. As members know 172 MP's voted that they had no confidence in Corbyn, so I believe that all of those 172 MP's are liable to resign / defect at some point with the most likely being perhaps Owen Smith himself, but would like to know who members think will be the first (and for a bit of added fun, when)
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,844
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Post by Crimson King on Sept 24, 2016 9:34:43 GMT
I think the most likely answer is none
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 24, 2016 9:39:26 GMT
There won't be any defections, but there will be a lot of defecation.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 24, 2016 9:42:48 GMT
Given the fact that Corbyn has a 99% chance of being re-elected according to Betfair this morning, I am creating this thread to ask "Which Labour MP will be the first to resign the Labour whip / defect to another party after Corbyn's re-election" and then to be used to keep a tally on those MP's that do. As members know 172 MP's voted that they had no confidence in Corbyn, so I believe that all of those 172 MP's are liable to resign / defect at some point with the most likely being perhaps Owen Smith himself, but would like to know who members think will be the first (and for a bit of added fun, when) Seriously, what on earth do you base that on??  |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 24, 2016 9:44:46 GMT
Given the fact that Corbyn has a 99% chance of being re-elected according to Betfair this morning, I am creating this thread to ask "Which Labour MP will be the first to resign the Labour whip / defect to another party after Corbyn's re-election" and then to be used to keep a tally on those MP's that do. As members know 172 MP's voted that they had no confidence in Corbyn, so I believe that all of those 172 MP's are liable to resign / defect at some point with the most likely being perhaps Owen Smith himself, but would like to know who members think will be the first (and for a bit of added fun, when) Seriously, what on earth do you base that on?? The Hayfield scale of probability. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 24, 2016 10:07:13 GMT
It might be more worthwhile seeing how many councillors, members of the House of Lords or MEPs defect.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 24, 2016 10:08:59 GMT
Seriously, what on earth do you base that on?? The Hayfield scale of probability. The absinthe in West Wales must be amazing. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 24, 2016 10:13:35 GMT
The Hayfield scale of probability. The absinthe in West Wales must be amazing. Illustrations by Toulouse LaPlot |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 24, 2016 10:14:27 GMT
It might be more worthwhile seeing how many councillors, members of the House of Lords or MEPs defect. MEPs? What are they?  |
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 24, 2016 10:22:57 GMT
Harry Hayfield If we had some form of proportional representation, we would be more likely to see MPs defecting because then there would be less of a risk of them dropping like ninepins at the next general election (a la the SDP defectors in 1983). FPTP makes it extremely difficult for breakaway parties to be successful - and Labour moderates know this. For someone who is so unelectable and bad at his job, Corbyn always seems to beat the group of MPs who don't like him and want to replace him in elections. Maybe they might just admit defeat, bunker down and hope he falls down by his own means, as they are it seems incapable of doing anything to topple him. The PLP's problem is the current clientele of the membership. Unless that changes, we're likely to see the most left-wing candidate winning all future leadership elections. And if Corbyn has his way, there will be more Corbynistas among the PLP itself in four years' time. Is there any hope of reversing this situation? Genuine question.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 24, 2016 10:59:58 GMT
I think someone like Frank Field might become an Independent Labour MP at some stage as a protest against Corbyn.
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 24, 2016 11:07:39 GMT
I think someone like Frank Field might become an Independent Labour MP at some stage as a protest against Corbyn. There's been a good possibility of Frank Field becoming an Independent Labour MP ever since he became a Labour MP. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 24, 2016 11:08:39 GMT
Nah, not him. If there is anybody, I have a suspicion it might be someone who has been keeping their powder dry and not one of the "usual suspects".
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742
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Post by Adrian on Sept 24, 2016 11:21:11 GMT
Some of you say zero, but I find it hard to believe that among 170 anti-Corbyn MPs, some of whom hate him and/or his leadership, none will resign the whip. They've held on, hoping a new leadership election might change things, but that avenue has closed. I know that becoming an independent will mean that their parliamentary career won't last much longer, but there are a few people who value their principles more than their paypacket.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Sept 24, 2016 11:23:15 GMT
The most likely to jump ship will be those who fear there is a risk of being deselected.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2016 11:30:45 GMT
It might be more worthwhile seeing how many councillors, members of the House of Lords or MEPs defect. MEPs? What are they? They haven't gone yet ! |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,033
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 24, 2016 11:33:12 GMT
Speculation from people (journalists included) who don't understand Labour = not worth a thing.
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 24, 2016 11:37:56 GMT
The most likely to jump ship will be those who fear there is a risk of being deselected. Or those intending to retire in 2020. |
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 24, 2016 11:39:54 GMT
The most likely to jump are those who are looking at retiring at the next election anyway, as they have nothing to lose. (EDIT - AdminSTB has beaten me to it!) Other than that, most will sit on their hands, wait it out, work in parliament in other ways (e.g. more focus on select committee work) during this time. If Corbyn is still leader by the time of the next G.E., they will campaign hard locally for their candidate and for local councillors to get elected but not take much part in the national campaign. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 24, 2016 11:47:01 GMT
MEPs? What are they? They haven't gone yet ! Like the Giant panda they will soon be extinct in the wild . We must love** them while we can. ** or not as the case may be. |
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