Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,460
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 19, 2016 16:32:37 GMT
"Truly horrendous" possibly overstates things a little. This, for Labour, has always been the more marginal of the two Gravesend divisions and both seats were lost in 2009. Even so, it is scarcely any thing other than very disappointing. It is not just a reflection on Labour's current self destructive tendency but underlines a problem for Labour in Kent, that has been transparent since 2010. There has been a long term move away from Labour in Kent since the 50s when Dover, Faversham, Rochester & Chatham. Gravesend and Dartford were all usually Labour and Gillingham and Thanet could come under pressure. In 2015 Gravesend and Canterbury bucked the trend and last night must be a bit of a warning as it suggests Conservative recovery there. Indeed. Same in Essex. But given the social attitudes there it isn't altogether surprising |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 19, 2016 17:01:53 GMT
Gillingham and Thanet didn't come under any pressure in the 50s - not even much in the 60s. Not until 1997 in fact (though Gillingham had been Labour in 1945 that was obviously a bit of an aberrant election - Thanet wasn't close even then)
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 19, 2016 17:29:14 GMT
Gravesend East shouldn't be regarded as that much of a surprise.
I tried to add up the results in the May 2016 elections in the wards that make up the county electoral division, and though there wasn't a perfect candidature pattern, it looked pretty close then.
That was before the recent shenanigans and new PM, and a double digit Conservative national lead. I nearly predicted a C gain, but unlike Pete didn't have the guts ...
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 19, 2016 18:22:47 GMT
There has been a long term move away from Labour in Kent since the 50s when Dover, Faversham, Rochester & Chatham. Gravesend and Dartford were all usually Labour and Gillingham and Thanet could come under pressure. In 2015 Gravesend and Canterbury bucked the trend and last night must be a bit of a warning as it suggests Conservative recovery there. Indeed. Same in Essex. But given the social attitudes there it isn't altogether surprising I don't think social attitudes have much to do with it. They aren't significantly different now (relative to the rest of the country) from what they were when we were competitive, nor are they more right-wing than in areas that are reliably Labour. The key factors are economic (a decline in skilled and semi-skilled unionised labour and a rise in middle-class commuting and low-skilled small business employment) and relating to a lack of identification with Labour (which in no small part stems from the first change.) |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 20, 2016 17:25:07 GMT
Can anyone help? I have in the last few minutes deleted my final analysis of the 9 by-elections held on Thursday. Does anyone know whether these can be reinstated automatically.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2016 8:18:55 GMT
Can anyone help? I have in the last few minutes deleted my final analysis of the 9 by-elections held on Thursday. Does anyone know whether these can be reinstated automatically. not a computer geek so i just googled linkwindows linkmac hope this was useful. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 21, 2016 10:08:35 GMT
Gravesham, Pelham - Labour hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 494 | 46.2% | -4.1% | -4.5% | -10.8% | -11.0% | Conservative | 325 | 30.4% | -4.6% | -3.4% | -2.5% | -2.1% | Liberal Democrat | 101 | 9.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 91 | 8.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -1.6% | -1.8% | Green | 35 | 3.3% | -11.5% | -12.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | English Democrat | 24 | 2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,070 |
| 30% | 32% | 46% | 47% |
Little swing since 2015 but Labour to Conservative ~ 4% since 2011 Council now 23 Conservative, 21 Labour Kent, Gravesham East - Conservative gain from Labour
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2013 "top" | since 2013"average" | since 2009 "top" | since 2009 "average" | | Conservative | 1,758 | 36.0% | +8.4% | +10.2% | +1.0% | +1.8% | Labour | 1,538 | 31.5% | -4.8% | -5.5% | +9.6% | +9.1% | UKIP | 1,272 | 26.0% | +2.8% | +2.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 209 | 4.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -7.4% | -7.7% | Liberal Democrat | 110 | 2.3% | -1.5% | -1.6% | -7.3% | -6.9% | English Democrat |
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| -6.6% | -6.8% | -13.4% | -13.8% | TUSC |
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| -2.6% | -2.7% |
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| Independent |
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| -8.5% | -8.7% | Total votes | 4,887 |
| 48% | 50% | 46% | 47% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 6.6% / 7.8% since 2013 but Conservative to Labour ~ 4% since 2009
Council now 46 Conservative, 15 UKIP, 12 Labour, 7 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green, 1 Resident, 1 Un-alligned, 1 Vacant
Redcar & Cleveland - Liberal Democrat hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2009 B | | Liberal Democrat | 980 | 75.4% | +33.6% | +34.8% | +20.8% | +21.1% | +1.8% | UKIP | 138 | 10.6% | -8.5% | -9.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +3.6% | Labour | 126 | 9.7% | -11.2% | -10.8% | -23.2% | -22.8% | -4.6% | Conservative | 41 | 3.2% | -9.5% | -10.3% | -9.3% | -10.1% | -2.1% | North East | 15 | 1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -5.5% | -5.4% |
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| Total votes | 1,300 |
| -40% | 42% | 65% | 69% | 88% |
Swing to Liberal Democrat 20% plus since 2015 although result is similar to that for a 2009 by-election
Council now 28 Labour, 11 Liberal Democrat, 10 Conservative, 9 Independent, 1 UKIP
Richmondshire, Catterick - Conservative gain from Independent
| Party | 2016 B2 votes | 2016 B2 share | since 2016 B1 | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 228 | 41.8% | -18.5% | +1.3% | +4.6% | +2.0% | +4.8% | Liberal Democrat | 203 | 37.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent | 112 | 20.5% | -19.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 3 | 0.5% | from nowhere | -15.4% | -16.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Councillor |
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| -43.6% | -46.0% | -60.2% | -63.0% | Total votes | 546 |
| 107% | 42% | 44% | 64% | 67% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 22 Conservative, 6 Independent, 5 Richmondshire Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat
Surrey, Farnham South - Conservative hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | since 2005 | | Conservative | 932 | 41.2% | -9.0% | -26.6% | -17.1% | Farnham Residents | 754 | 33.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 269 | 11.9% | from nowhere | -15.0% | -21.6% | Independent | 139 | 6.2% | -10.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 89 | 3.9% | -12.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 77 | 3.4% | -3.6% | -1.9% | -4.8% | Independent Beaman |
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| -10.3% |
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| Total votes | 2,260 |
| 68% | 54% | 33% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 60 Conservative, 9 Residents / Independents, 8 Liberal Democrat, 2 UKIP, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Thanet, Northwood - 2 UKIP holds where former Councillors were sitting as Democratic Independents
| Party | 2016 votes
1st candidate
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2nd candidate | 2016 votes
average
| 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | 2011 "average" | | UKIP | 488 | 394 | 441 | 34.4% | -12.1% | -12.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 356 | 325 | 341 | 26.6% | -2.0% | -2.5% | -30.6% | -31.8% | Conservative | 282 | 246 | 264 | 20.6% | -4.4% | -3.4% | -22.2% | -21.1% | Independent | 136 |
| 136 | 10.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 64 | 48 | 56 | 4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | United Thanet | 44 |
| 44 | 3.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,370 | 1,013 | 1,282 |
| 44% | 46% | 76% | 80% |
Swing UKIP to Labour ~ 5% since 2015 otherwise not meaningful
Council now 29 UKIP, 18 Conservative, 5 Labour, 2 Democratic Independent, 2 Independent
Wandsworth, Tooting - Labour hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Labour | 1,467 | 58.5% | +13.7% | +13.3% | +13.3% | +12.6% | Conservative | 644 | 25.7% | -2.7% | -2.2% | -6.0% | -5.3% | Liberal Democrat | 267 | 10.6% | +4.2% | +4.7% | -3.6% | -3.4% | Green | 116 | 4.6% | -6.5% | -6.8% | -2.5% | -2.6% | Social Democrat | 15 | 0.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -5.2% | -5.4% |
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| TUSC |
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| -2.1% | -2.1% |
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| Communist |
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| -2.0% | -2.1% | -1.8% | -1.9% | Total votes | 2,509 |
| 45% | 46% | 33% | 35% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~ 8% since 2014 and ~ 9% since 2010
Council now 39 Conservative, 19 Labour, 2 Wandsworth Independent
Waverley, Castle - Farnham Residents gain from Conservative
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Farnham Residents | 386 | 40.6% | +6.0% | +5.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 292 | 30.7% | +6.3% | +5.7% | +14.3% | +13.7% | Conservative | 229 | 24.1% | -2.3% | -0.4% | -29.7% | -28.8% | UKIP | 43 | 4.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour |
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| -14.5% | -14.9% | -12.2% | -12.7% | Independent |
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| -17.5% | -17.5% | Total votes | 950 |
| 32% | 32% | 76% | 79% |
Swing very small Farnham Residents to Liberal Democrat since 2015 otherwise not meaningful
Council now 51 Conservative, 5 Farnham Residents, 1 Independent
Waverley, Shortheath & Boundstone - Farnham Residents gain from Conservative
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Farnham Residents | 356 | 47.6% | +7.0% | +7.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 233 | 31.1% | -14.0% | -12.6% | -40.1% | -39.7% | Liberal Democrat | 90 | 12.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent | 43 | 5.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 26 | 3.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour |
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| -14.3% | -15.7% | -28.8% | -29.2% | Total votes | 748 |
| 32% | 35% | 52% | 53% |
Swing Conservative to Farnham Residents ~10% since 2015 otherwise not meaningful Council now 51 Conservative, 5 Farnham Residents, 1 Independent
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