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Post by mick745 on Jun 26, 2024 18:10:11 GMT
What is the record Con-Lab swing at a General Election since 1945 both in an individual seat and nationally?
A record that may fall perhaps next week?
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Post by batman on Jun 26, 2024 22:05:58 GMT
Nationally is definitely 1997. The swing from Conservative to Labour was just over 10% in that election nationally. In an individual seat I cannot be as definite
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 26, 2024 22:20:05 GMT
Here's the list of the top ten highest magnitude swings in individual constituencies at all general elections since 1951 which I compiled just after the 1997 general election. 1. Merthyr Tydfil, 1970 +20.83
2. Brent, Brent North, 1997 -18.83
3. East Sussex, Hastings and Rye, 1997 -18.52
4. Merthyr Tydfil, 1974(F) -18.51
5. Crosby, 1997 -18.15
6. Harrow, Harrow East, 1997 -18.09
7. Waltham Forest, Walthamstow, 1997 -17.87
8. Cardiganshire, 1979 +17.68
9. Croydon, Croydon North, 1997 -17.64
10. Essex, Billericay, 1997 -17.58 |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 28, 2024 14:19:05 GMT
Here's the list of the top ten highest magnitude swings in individual constituencies at all general elections since 1951 which I compiled just after the 1997 general election. 1. Merthyr Tydfil, 1970 +20.83
2. Brent, Brent North, 1997 -18.83
3. East Sussex, Hastings and Rye, 1997 -18.52
4. Merthyr Tydfil, 1974(F) -18.51
5. Crosby, 1997 -18.15
6. Harrow, Harrow East, 1997 -18.09
7. Waltham Forest, Walthamstow, 1997 -17.87
8. Cardiganshire, 1979 +17.68
9. Croydon, Croydon North, 1997 -17.64
10. Essex, Billericay, 1997 -17.58 7 out of 10 from 97. I wonder if 2024 could flil more slots than that? |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 28, 2024 16:23:33 GMT
Here's the list of the top ten highest magnitude swings in individual constituencies at all general elections since 1951 which I compiled just after the 1997 general election. 1. Merthyr Tydfil, 1970 +20.83
2. Brent, Brent North, 1997 -18.83
3. East Sussex, Hastings and Rye, 1997 -18.52
4. Merthyr Tydfil, 1974(F) -18.51
5. Crosby, 1997 -18.15
6. Harrow, Harrow East, 1997 -18.09
7. Waltham Forest, Walthamstow, 1997 -17.87
8. Cardiganshire, 1979 +17.68
9. Croydon, Croydon North, 1997 -17.64
10. Essex, Billericay, 1997 -17.58 It is interesting that the biggest one of those (disregarding Merthyr Tydfil, which was a sui-generis outlier), Brent North, was "only" 8.7% different from the national average. If the national average swing in 2024 is something like 13% or 15% (compared with 10.1% in 1997) then there will be bucketloads of record swings this time, unless something very weird happens like a UNS |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 30, 2024 19:49:55 GMT
Was asked this by a friend & I (think) should know the answer but not 100% sure...
the scenario goes something like this:
Sunak loses his seat at say 3am, (NB: Labour at this point hasnt reached 326 seats).
At 3.15am Russia declares war on UK (or some other national emergency happens which requires an instant response).
Isn't Sunak, as still head of the outgoing government, still technically the 'political leader of the nation' until such time as the Monarch invites Starmer to form a government?
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 30, 2024 19:57:51 GMT
He remains Prime Minister until the King appoints someone else. Whether he loses his seat or not, or whether Labour have a majority or not, is irrelevant.
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 30, 2024 20:01:53 GMT
He remains Prime Minister until the King appoints someone else. Whether he loses his seat or not, or whether Labour have a majority or not, is irrelevant. That was what I understood, but thanks for the confirmation |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,809 
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Post by john07 on Jul 2, 2024 20:53:30 GMT
He remains Prime Minister until the King appoints someone else. Whether he loses his seat or not, or whether Labour have a majority or not, is irrelevant. No doubt some would like to see a ‘transition team’ given the Americanisation of politics. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,141
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Post by Foggy on Jul 2, 2024 23:40:47 GMT
He remains Prime Minister until the King appoints someone else. Whether he loses his seat or not, or whether Labour have a majority or not, is irrelevant. No doubt some would like to see a ‘transition team’ given the Americanisation of politics. For all of a few hours between 4am and whenever the next PM kisses hands? In Wales we'd call that a task-and-finish group. Easy money! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 5, 2024 18:33:01 GMT
Has anyone yet compiled lists of 2024 results e.g. safest seats, smallest majorities, highest shares per party etc?
It would be really helpful!
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,444
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Post by iain on Jul 5, 2024 18:44:26 GMT
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 5, 2024 19:30:42 GMT
Thanks very much indeed!  Does anyone know where the highest and lowest turnouts were? |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 5, 2024 19:41:12 GMT
Mcr Rusholme had 40% which I think is the lowest.
Richmond Park for the highest? 75.7%
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Post by andrewp on Jul 5, 2024 19:42:26 GMT
So there were 47 seats won by less than 1000 votes- 26 by Lab, 13 by Con, 3 by the SNP, 2 by the Lib Dems and 1 each for RefUK, PC and DUP.
That compares to 30 seats won by less than 1000 votes in 2019.
There were 7 seats won by less than 100 votes compared to 1 in 2019
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 5, 2024 20:55:49 GMT
Mcr Rusholme had 40% which I think is the lowest. Richmond Park for the highest? 75.7% Ive now found 76.3% in Somerset North! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 5, 2024 21:35:42 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 5, 2024 22:08:55 GMT
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,141
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Post by Foggy on Jul 6, 2024 0:37:27 GMT
Mcr Rusholme had 40% which I think is the lowest. Not saying there's a correlation but it was the only seat in GB outside of Chorley with no Lib Dem candidate. |
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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 6, 2024 0:42:54 GMT
Mcr Rusholme had 40% which I think is the lowest. Not saying there's a correlation but it was the only seat in GB outside of Chorley with no Lib Dem candidate. Correlation doesn’t necessarily exclude causation, right?? Or… something like that?!? |
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