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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 14, 2012 15:54:33 GMT
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Sept 14, 2012 15:56:42 GMT
The results from Campsie & Kirkintilloch North (sorry about the lack of formatting)
Electorate 9277; turnout 2795 (30.1%); rejected ballots 28 (0.3%); valid ballots 2795; Quota 1384
First preferences
LAB 851 (30.76%); SNP 743 (26.85%); LIBD 693 (25.05%); IND 274 (9.9%); CON 141 (5.1%); GRN 65 (2.35%)
Changes on May 2012
LAB +8.94%; SNP +6.51%; LIBD +22.62%; IND +9.9%; CON +0.52%; GRN +2.35% (EDIA -50.84%)
Stage 2 result (after exclusion of Scottish Green Party):
LAB 860; SNP 762; LIBD 702; IND 284; CON 143
Stage 3 result (after exclusion of Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party)
LAB 874; SNP 767; LIBD 740; IND 318
Stage 4 result (after exclusion of Independent)
LAB 939; SNP 845; LIBD 788
Stage 5 result (after exclusion of Scottish Liberal Democrat)
LAB 1146; SNP 1044
Gemma Welsh (LAB) was declared elected by being credited with more than 50% of the remaining valid votes.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 14, 2012 16:49:10 GMT
That's a very respectable LD performance. Are the branch there perhaps expecting the boundary changes to go through and for the ward to end up in Jo Swinson's seat?
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Post by AdminSTB on Sept 14, 2012 17:24:42 GMT
It does seem that a lot of Charles Kennedy supporters have switched to the Lib Dems...
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Sept 14, 2012 17:30:06 GMT
That's a very respectable LD performance. Are the branch there perhaps expecting the boundary changes to go through and for the ward to end up in Jo Swinson's seat? I don't think anyone expects these proposed boundaries to go through and Jo Swinson seems popular enough locally to ride any national swing away from them. I think the difference is they put in a candidate who is very active in Kirkintilloch especially and put in a very big effort in this by-election to get her name known in the other parts of the ward. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 14, 2012 17:39:09 GMT
That's a very respectable LD performance. Are the branch there perhaps expecting the boundary changes to go through and for the ward to end up in Jo Swinson's seat? I don't think anyone expects these proposed boundaries to go through and Jo Swinson seems popular enough locally to ride any national swing away from themA big claim, with which not everybody agrees....... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2012 18:05:54 GMT
It does seem that a lot of Charles Kennedy supporters have switched to the Lib Dems... Confusion over the name perhaps?  For the record, it wouldn't surprise me if Jo Swinson were to find a way of holding on against the odds. East Dunbartonshire is a weird place electorally. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 14, 2012 18:08:07 GMT
The Scottish Parliament results in the area were very, very bad for the Liberal Democrats in a seat they hold for the UK Parliament. 7.7% in Strathkelvin and Bearsden, 6.2% in Clydebank and Milngavie. Jo Swinson is going to have to have an almost unbelievable personal vote.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 14, 2012 18:26:09 GMT
The encouraging thing for the LDs is that they actually achieved quota for the three-member ward in terms of vote share and the candidate has four and half years to build and try and take one of the Labour seats.
It's definitely their most encouraging result this week.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 14, 2012 18:31:49 GMT
The Scottish Parliament results in the area were very, very bad for the Liberal Democrats in a seat they hold for the UK Parliament. 7.7% in Strathkelvin and Bearsden, 6.2% in Clydebank and Milngavie. Jo Swinson is going to have to have an almost unbelievable personal vote. To put that in context, the LD votes in those seats in 2007 were only 12.7% and 11.8% respectively and Swinson still held with almost 40% in 2010. I'm not saying that she will hold in 2015, if anything I'd say the odds were decidedly against her, but I wouldn't read too much into last year's results. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 14, 2012 18:41:52 GMT
The encouraging thing for the LDs is that they actually achieved quota for the three-member ward in terms of vote share and the candidate has four and half years to build and try and take one of the Labour seats. It's definitely their most encouraging result this week. True, though as they did badly in three of the contests that'd be the case even if they'd got half as many votes as they did. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2012 18:43:10 GMT
The other way of looking at it though is that in 2007, the LibDems only got 12.7% in Strathkelvin & Bearsden and 11.8% in Clydebank & Milngavie. So it went down, but they were never in the running to begin with. The former also elected an independent in 2003. Equally, I've often thought that the Tory vote in East Dunbartonshire is suspiciously low for a largely middle-class suburban area compared with, say, East Renfrewshire, which leads to me to suspect that there may actually be quite a lot of Not Labour voters there.
I still think she'll more than likely lose to Labour, but it just wouldn't completely surprise me if she holds somehow. And to be honest, if they target it, a shock SNP gain seemingly from nowhere wouldn't entirely surprise me either given the area's tendency to flit between all parties and none (including Tory until 1987) depending on the election.
Edit: Tony beat me to it.
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Post by leftdruid on Sept 15, 2012 20:37:21 GMT
Highlight of his page: saying he'd got a leaflet to 40% of the ward on Tuesday. Does tend to suggest a fundamental unseriousness, which is backed up by most of his comments on the electoral process. I was very interested in reading the various comments about this by election. In paticular the above quote, I do wish when I am quoted that people would not misquote, the actual sentence is " The election is closing in fast now, John and myself have managed to get one leaflet to about 40% of the ward. " Yes this is Brian Reid. What the poster fails to put over is that there were only two on my team, my brother in law and myself. He also fails to inform that the 3 party's who finished above me in the poll, all brought national figures to their election teams. As for the electoral process, as a past deputy agent for a Labour MP, I believe I can hold my own at the very least. The last Councillor was an Independent, however that does not explain his position fully, he had been a Labour Councillor for many years, before being expelled from the party for disagreeing with the then labour scottish parliaments decisions to close/reduce the size of Stobhill hospital. He was well known and could easily have been selected as an MP, MSP or MEP and indeed he would have won. So all in my campaign was a success, especially when you consider I beat two national party's. I was also complimented on my campaign by the leader of the controlling labour group and by the SNP. This is a 3 seat ward at the next election, labour will probably lose one of its two councillors as they do not have the vote to ensure they get 2 councillors, at the moment it looks as if we will be represented by Labour, SNP and Lib Dems, but you never know I might just sneak in on the 2nd preference vote . |
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Post by markgoodair on Sept 15, 2012 22:47:29 GMT
Dream on!
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 17, 2012 14:24:24 GMT
I was very interested in reading the various comments about this by election. In paticular the above quote, I do wish when I am quoted that people would not misquote, the actual sentence is " The election is closing in fast now, John and myself have managed to get one leaflet to about 40% of the ward. " Yes this is Brian Reid. What the poster fails to put over is that there were only two on my team, my brother in law and myself. He also fails to inform that the 3 party's who finished above me in the poll, all brought national figures to their election teams. Interestingly, local election results are not marked on a sliding scale. If you only leaflet 40% of the ward, you haven't contacted 60% of the ward. If you only have two activists and leaflet 40% of the ward, you still haven't contacted 60% of the ward and will underperform accordingly. This is exactly why the national parties brought in outside help. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 17, 2012 19:32:51 GMT
Omg lol.. is that site for real? If so it surely begs the question how you happened upon it
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