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Post by rockefeller on Nov 24, 2022 7:02:30 GMT
People's Republic of Lincolnshire.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 25, 2022 15:32:28 GMT
Doing detailed maps of interwar constituencies on an on-off basis because it's fun. Anyway, here's Dublin: Will do some party vote maps etc. shortly.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 25, 2022 16:38:39 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 25, 2022 17:26:59 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 26, 2022 0:07:33 GMT
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Post by rockefeller on Nov 26, 2022 7:28:02 GMT
Possibly not a pretty map, depending on your perspective. Can Khan lose next time?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 26, 2022 20:07:41 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 26, 2022 23:12:24 GMT
Who's the missing candidate à Ormeau?
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 26, 2022 23:29:31 GMT
Who's the missing candidate à Ormeau? An Independent Unionist called William Stewart. He would later become the Unionist MP for Belfast South and would split from the official party again in the late 30s: founded the Ulster Progressive Unionist Association which took 12% of the vote at the 1938 elections but won no seats.
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 4, 2022 8:35:12 GMT
It should have been Bristol Central since 2010 as it doesn't include Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym. It's the Greens best chance for a gain, but like the Lib Dems in Bristol West in 97, a Labour surge may eclipse them. If the Greens win two seats, they match the Communist Party of Great Britain's peak in 1945.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 4, 2022 10:20:08 GMT
An actual Green win next time would still be a major surprise, but it will nonetheless be very interesting to see what the actual result is.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 4, 2022 11:25:16 GMT
It swaps a split ward and a Green marginal for a safeish Green ward. It’s obviously a better constituency for the Greens but the old boundaries would have saw them comfortably win the popular vote but that didn’t count for much in 2017 or 2019 (and if local elections were held last May Labour would have presumably done quite a bit better than 2021). Their problem is that a large proportion of their voters don’t view them as a serious option nationally for various reasons, and I don’t think a fairly invisible co-leader is suddenly going to convert them all to voting for a Green MP.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 4, 2022 13:40:42 GMT
It should have been Bristol Central since 2010 as it doesn't include Stoke Bishop and Westbury-on-Trym. It's the Greens best chance for a gain, but like the Lib Dems in Bristol West in 97, a Labour surge may eclipse them. If the Greens win two seats, they match the Communist Party of Great Britain's peak in 1945. As a Lib Dem I would just point out that dominance in local elections (30% turnouts) may not transfer to parliamentary elections (70% turnouts).
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Dec 4, 2022 14:02:30 GMT
Also in Bristol a lot of those green voters are really Labour voters who are unhappy with the council. A lot of them will be more than happy to vote labour in a general election
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Dec 4, 2022 16:33:38 GMT
Also in Bristol a lot of those green voters are really Labour voters who are unhappy with the council. A lot of them will be more than happy to vote labour in a general election That doesn't make them 'Labour voters', it makes them voters who go Labour in general elections. That's the problem of many within the two main parties, you think you 'own' certain voters whereas actually you shouldn't make any assumptions about how people vote and why. Many of those voters in this constituency will have voted Lib Dem locally & nationally until not that long ago, that doesn't make them 'Lib Dem voters' in abeyance...
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YL
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Post by YL on Dec 4, 2022 16:51:37 GMT
Also in Bristol a lot of those green voters are really Labour voters who are unhappy with the council. A lot of them will be more than happy to vote labour in a general election I think there are a lot of people in the proposed Bristol Central whose default choice in a General Election would be Labour, but who if they lived in Brighton Pavilion would vote for Caroline Lucas without much hesitation. I think it's unlikely that the Greens actually win it in the next election but I think it does have more potential for them than any other constituency in the country, other than the aforementioned seat they already hold. If the next election but one is a 2005-type scenario where Labour is struggling with that sort of voter I think it could go Green then.
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iain
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Post by iain on Dec 4, 2022 18:03:40 GMT
Also in Bristol a lot of those green voters are really Labour voters who are unhappy with the council. A lot of them will be more than happy to vote labour in a general election That doesn't make them 'Labour voters', it makes them voters who go Labour in general elections. That's the problem of many within the two main parties, you think you 'own' certain voters whereas actually you shouldn't make any assumptions about how people vote and why. Many of those voters in this constituency will have voted Lib Dem locally & nationally until not that long ago, that doesn't make them 'Lib Dem voters' in abeyance... Not to mention the fact that they could just as easily be Green voters who vote tactically Labour as the best anti-Tory option (ignorant nonsense of course, but a whole lot of people have no idea of the specific situation in their constituency) in a GE.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2022 22:09:54 GMT
I like the idea of a 'Belfast Victoria' constituency. Perhaps renaming Belfast West would be an idea...
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Dec 9, 2022 15:46:00 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 17, 2022 16:38:41 GMT
Quite a complex set of boundaries, think it's fair to say. A grand total of three constituencies with detached parts, one of which was comprised (infamously, notoriously, completely unjustifiably) entirely of detached parts. A little note on nomenclature: I personally prefer 'f' to 'v' in the spelling of 'Caernarfon', but 'v' was widely and officially used at the time. 'Carn' rather than 'Caern' was also quite common, but I draw the line at that. 'Merioneth' might seem inconsistent alongside 'Flintshire' and 'Caernarvonshire', but reflects common usage: no one normal ever used 'Merionethshire', but both 'Caernarvonshire' and 'Flintshire' were (and are) frequent. 'Caernarvonshire' is also, obviously, necessary to draw a verbal distinction between that constituency and the absurd division of Caernarvon Boroughs - which, anyway, contained the county town.
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