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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2021 6:37:57 GMT
Surprised that Doncaster North without Sprotbrough goes blue (it's the Tories' best ward in the current seat).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2021 16:26:07 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2021 7:04:33 GMT
Delaware County, Ohio, has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1916 but as part of the growing Columbus metropolitan area, the county is moving left
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 22, 2021 13:01:37 GMT
Comparing GE19 v Euro19 where the Brexit Party outpolled (or underpolled) LD, CHUK and Green combined:-
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jul 22, 2021 13:34:25 GMT
That map to me seems to reflect Liberal Democrat strength or weakness across the country.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 23, 2021 6:37:01 GMT
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Post by froome on Jul 23, 2021 7:00:49 GMT
That map to me seems to reflect Liberal Democrat strength or weakness across the country. Only partially. It certainly reflects the Remain/Leave vote spread across the country, which was obviously partially reflected in how the Lib Dems then polled. In the mass of remain-voting southern central England, it does probably reflect their potential strength as well, but at the local level that then comes up against the other parties competing for the same vote.
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 23, 2021 7:45:21 GMT
As per above map Brexit Party vs 'The Progressives' (LD/Greens/CHUK) at Euro19:- BRX polled just over 32% of the vote and 'won' 324 seats whereas 'The Progs' polled slightly more and 'led' in 308 seats. A near perfect split.
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 23, 2021 12:10:09 GMT
As per above map Brexit Party vs 'The Progressives' (LD/Greens/CHUK) at Euro19:- BRX polled just over 32% of the vote and 'won' 324 seats whereas 'The Progs' polled slightly more and 'led' in 308 seats. A near perfect split. Interesting, a lot of the yellow seats are seats I could see Labour making some headway in if they're to win a future election, whereas many of the blue seats look like places the Conservatives may hold their support or even increase in a future GE
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 23, 2021 12:10:35 GMT
As per above map Brexit Party vs 'The Progressives' (LD/Greens/CHUK) at Euro19:- BRX polled just over 32% of the vote and 'won' 324 seats whereas 'The Progs' polled slightly more and 'led' in 308 seats. A near perfect split. That looks like an EU referendum map, from an alternative world where we voted very narrowly to Remain (and Scotland was a bit more pro-Brexit).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 24, 2021 5:53:06 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Jul 24, 2021 6:02:30 GMT
It is very weird to me that Iowa swung so hard toward the Republicans as it is a state the one would expect to have benfited from globalization (Unlike Ohio or Michigan)
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 24, 2021 8:00:13 GMT
Change in Labour rankings at the 1997GE:- Using the ratio method (Labour vote/runner-up or winner/Labour vote) and comparing the ranking for all seats for 1992NT/1997GE (West Bromwich West and Tatton omitted). The seats with the highest positive change were Hastings & Rye (up 123 places), Walthamstow, Greenwich & Woolwich, Liverpool Wavertree and Colne Valley. The greatest falls were Ochil and Glasgow Govan (both 214 places) and Bradford West (217). There are seven seats that didn't change their ranking. At first sight (and there could be different conclusions) Scotland and Wales appear to be lukewarm towards Labour whereas the Southern Coast/Home Counties/North East approve. It is possible to detect tactical voting and also those seats where the Labour advance prevented a Lib Dem victory (Folkestone & Hythe).
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 24, 2021 8:47:14 GMT
Wales had better than average results for Labour in both 1987 and 1992 - when the party of course had a Welsh leader.
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Post by BossMan on Jul 24, 2021 9:08:38 GMT
Wales had better than average results for Labour in both 1987 and 1992 - when the party of course had a Welsh leader. And to take that further, I do believe in all the General Elections from 1979 to 1992 the Labour leader sat in a Welsh seat (though Callaghan and Foot were both English).
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 25, 2021 11:54:12 GMT
Comparing the 2001 Labour vote vs 1992 notionals:- The average decrease for Labour was 1,279 votes. The Labour vote increased in 270 seats (providing 86 gains compared to 1992), fell by less than average in 67 seats (25 gains) and above average falls in the remaining 304 seats (29 net gains).
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Post by Deleted on Jul 25, 2021 20:08:14 GMT
2020 saw the highest number of incumbent Congressmen lose primaries in a non-redistricting year since 1974
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 26, 2021 8:18:20 GMT
A flurry of full houses:- Top winners from 1955-70. 475 seats didn't change allegiance - Con 247 Lab 226 Lib 2.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2021 8:34:00 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2021 13:08:32 GMT
In 2018 Billie Sutton came close to beating Kristi Noem in the state so ticket-splitting isn't quite gone but here's one of the last statewide wins for South Dakota Democrats
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