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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 26, 2021 13:22:22 GMT
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Post by pepperminttea on Jul 26, 2021 16:53:47 GMT
As per above map Brexit Party vs 'The Progressives' (LD/Greens/CHUK) at Euro19:- BRX polled just over 32% of the vote and 'won' 324 seats whereas 'The Progs' polled slightly more and 'led' in 308 seats. A near perfect split. Interesting, a lot of the yellow seats are seats I could see Labour making some headway in if they're to win a future election, whereas many of the blue seats look like places the Conservatives may hold their support or even increase in a future GE Some of the more densely populated ones quite possibly, but a lot of the yellow constituencies are far too rural (and comfortably off) for Labour to make any inroads whatsoever. Any future challenge to the Tories in these seats will come from the Lib Dems.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 777
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 26, 2021 21:04:48 GMT
Interesting, a lot of the yellow seats are seats I could see Labour making some headway in if they're to win a future election, whereas many of the blue seats look like places the Conservatives may hold their support or even increase in a future GE Some of the more densely populated ones quite possibly, but a lot of the yellow constituencies are far too rural (and comfortably off) for Labour to make any inroads whatsoever. Any future challenge to the Tories in these seats will come from the Lib Dems. Agreed, I was thinking more in terms of increases in shares of the vote more than gains in seats (although in many of these the potential for labour increases will probably be squeezed by Lib Dems like you said)
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 27, 2021 14:10:48 GMT
The Libs in Feb'74:- Above/below average performances for comparable seats (contested 1970/74F) plus interventions in Feb'74.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2021 12:50:53 GMT
Anyone got a swing map from 1997 to 2021 for Cambridgeshire County Council?
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 28, 2021 21:51:47 GMT
A set of recent LEAP updates which hadn't previously been posted to this thread. South Somerset 2019. LD 41 C 15 Ind 4. New ward boundaries. Split wards in 2019 were: Blackdown and Tatworth: LD/C Coker: C/LD Northstone, Ivelchester and St Michael's: Ind/LD/C Wessex: Ind/LD
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 28, 2021 22:00:17 GMT
Waverley 2019. C 23 (-30) Farnham Residents 15 (+12) LD 14 (+14) Lab 2 (+2) Grn 2 (+2) Ind 1. Changes based on 2015: Farnham Residents gain from C Farnham Bourne (1) Farnham Castle (1) Farnham Firgrove (2) Farnham Hale and Heath End (2) Farnham Moor Park (1) Farnham Shortheath and Boundstone (1) Farnham Upper Hale (1) Farnham Wrecclesham and Rowledge (2) Farnham Residents gain from Ind Farnham Moor Park (1) Grn gain from C Bramley, Busbridge and Hascombe (1) Godalming Charterhouse (1) Ind gain from C Milford (1) Lab gain from C Godalming Binscombe (1) Godalming Farnscombe and Catteshall (1) LD gain from C Cranleigh East (2) Farnham Weybourne and Badshot Lea (2) Godalming Binscombe (1) Godalming Central and Ockford (2) Godalming Farncombe and Catteshall (1) Godalming Holloway (1) Haslemere Critchmere and Shottermill (3) Hindhead (1) Milford (1) Alfold, Cranleigh Rural and Ellens Green was uncontested. Split wards in 2019 were: Bramley, Busbridge and Hascombe: C/Grn Cranleigh East: 2LD/1C Farnham Bourne: Farnham Res/C Godalming Binscombe: LD/Lab Godalming Charterhouse: Grn/C Godalming Farncombe and Catteshall: LD/Lab Godalming Holloway: LD/C Hindhead: LD/C Milford: LD/Ind
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 28, 2021 22:07:04 GMT
Somerset West and Taunton 2019. LD 30 Ind 14 C 10 Lab 3 Grn 2. New council. Quantock Vale was uncontested. Split wards in 2019 were: Comeytrowe and Bishop's Hull: 1Ind/2LD Minehead Central: C/Ind Norton Fitzwarren and Staplegrove: 2LD/1Ind Priorswood: 2Lab/1LD South Quantock: LD/C Vivary: LD/C Wellington East: LD/Ind Wellington North: Lab/LD West Monkton and Cheddon Fitzpaine: C/LD/Grn Wiveliscombe and District: Grn/Ind
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 28, 2021 22:32:30 GMT
Cambridgeshire 2021. C 28 (-8) LD 20 (+5) Lab 9 (+2) St Neots Ind Group 2 Ind 2 (+1). Changes based on 2017: C gain from LD Brampton and Buckden Huntingdon North and Hartford Ind gain from C St Neots East and Gransden Lab gain from LD Chesterton Market LD gain from C Bar Hill Cottenham and Willingham Duxford Ely North Ely South Hardwick Longstanton, Northstowe and Over Sawston and Shelford (2) No split divisions.
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 29, 2021 11:50:24 GMT
Frequency a constituency placed in the top 100 marginals from 1955 to 1970:-
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 29, 2021 13:40:19 GMT
Somerset West and Taunton 2019. LD 30 Ind 14 C 10 Lab 3 Grn 2. New council. Quantock Vale was uncontested. Split wards in 2019 were: Comeytrowe and Bishop's Hull: 1Ind/2LD Minehead Central: C/Ind Norton Fitzwarren and Staplegrove: 2LD/1Ind Priorswood: 2Lab/1LD South Quantock: LD/C Vivary: LD/C Wellington East: LD/Ind Wellington North: Lab/LD West Monkton and Cheddon Fitzpaine: C/LD/Grn Wiveliscombe and District: Grn/Ind
Oooh look! A bunny rabbit!
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,224
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 29, 2021 16:07:42 GMT
Time to restore Huntingdonshire!
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 29, 2021 16:39:19 GMT
Somerset West and Taunton 2019. LD 30 Ind 14 C 10 Lab 3 Grn 2. New council. Quantock Vale was uncontested. Split wards in 2019 were: Comeytrowe and Bishop's Hull: 1Ind/2LD Minehead Central: C/Ind Norton Fitzwarren and Staplegrove: 2LD/1Ind Priorswood: 2Lab/1LD South Quantock: LD/C Vivary: LD/C Wellington East: LD/Ind Wellington North: Lab/LD West Monkton and Cheddon Fitzpaine: C/LD/Grn Wiveliscombe and District: Grn/Ind
Oooh look! A bunny rabbit! Looks more like a dead fly to me
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 29, 2021 16:52:59 GMT
Oooh look! A bunny rabbit! Looks more like a dead fly to me Mrs T's dead parrot it ain't!
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 30, 2021 3:42:58 GMT
Somerset West and Taunton 2019. LD 30 Ind 14 C 10 Lab 3 Grn 2. New council. Quantock Vale was uncontested. Split wards in 2019 were: Comeytrowe and Bishop's Hull: 1Ind/2LD Minehead Central: C/Ind Norton Fitzwarren and Staplegrove: 2LD/1Ind Priorswood: 2Lab/1LD South Quantock: LD/C Vivary: LD/C Wellington East: LD/Ind Wellington North: Lab/LD West Monkton and Cheddon Fitzpaine: C/LD/Grn Wiveliscombe and District: Grn/Ind
Oooh look! A bunny rabbit! with such a thin foreleg? I'm thinking aguti or mara or sthg like that.
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 30, 2021 12:56:23 GMT
The Tory vote in 1992:- Light red signifies a decreased vote and light blue an increased vote. The average increased vote was 437 with a standard deviation 1791 so dark blue for those seats where the vote increaased by more than 2228.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,224
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 30, 2021 17:50:58 GMT
With legend, for all those, who intend to save the map of hullenedge :
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 31, 2021 21:22:47 GMT
North West Leicestershire 2019. C 20 (-5) Lab 10 LD 4 (+3) Ind 3 (+1) Grn 1 (+1). Changes based on 2015: C gain from Lab Blackfordby Broom Leys Grn gain from C Ashby Castle Ind gain from C Snibston North Lab gain from C Ashby Willesley Castle Donington Park Daleacre Hill LD gain from C Bardon Coalville East LD gain from Lab Greenhill
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Post by hullenedge on Aug 1, 2021 10:30:14 GMT
Regression of the Tory Vote for October 1974 (compared to February) in selected English/Welsh seats (Libs contested both elections):- Best Con performance in Falmouth & Camborne and the worse in Louth.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 1, 2021 15:44:43 GMT
Jeffrey Archer had to withdraw from Louth between the two elections, leading to the loss of his incumbency vote (which seems to have been quite good - he was actually well rated locally).
Many of the good Conservative performances seem to match to areas where the Liberals made big gains in 1970-Feb 74.
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