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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2016 18:28:59 GMT
One of the tricky elements post-election is that the Pirates want new elections relatively soon (ideally next autumn) after passing a new constitution, which will then have to be approved by the next Althing (the alternative is a referendum with 40%+ of all voters in favor, but the Pirates consider that unrealistic).
Both LG and SDA will likely prefer to wait at least two years in order to use a "leftist" majority to make reforms of fishing quotas, and implement new policies on healthcare, housing and pensions + create a highlands national park - and BF have committed themselves to a new market based agricultural policy. Pirates (and Vidreisn) will also want a referendum on whether to resume the EU negotiations, which will then have to be held relatively soon. Whether SDA and BF want this in a post-Brexit scenario is more unclear as the issue tend to block the political agenda and is more a matter of principle ("let the people decide"), than practical politics (EU membership is de facto a no-go).
(I thought Brexit would kill the EU question, but the rise of Vidreisn, the Pirates "principles" and sheer inertia in parts of SDA has kept it alive)
There has been internal criticism among the Pirates of the single-issue campaign with the constitution as focus in what has turned into a "welfare election", but the leadership seems determined to stick to their course.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 20, 2016 19:14:11 GMT
Not much sign of the election on the streets of Reykjavik. Sole sighting so far has been some rather polite and earnest ladies of a certain age campaigning for Left-Greens outside an upmarket department store. Sadly my fiancee wasn't up for me stopping to collect party literature.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2016 22:42:13 GMT
A bit of stats
1,302 candidates on 62 lists for 12 parties. A bit down from the 2013 record with 1,512 candidates on 72 lists and 15 parties, but still a lot for a country that size.
246, 515 eligible voters. 3.6% up from 2013. 50.1% women and 49.9% men (123,627 and 122,888 respectively). Though women usually have higher turnout.
SW 68 242 (+8.1% highest growth)
Reykjavík North 46,082
Reykjavík South 45,685 (so not full parity, but quite close)
South 35,458
NE 29,569
NW 21,479 (+0.8% lowest growth)
Each MP in the SW represents 5,249 voters vs. a mere 2,685 in the Northwest. SW has 27.7% of the votes and 20.6% of the seats. NW has 8.7% of the votes, but 12.7% of the seats. If each seat becomes more than twice as "expensive" in the SW as the NW a seat will be moved, but as turnout is higher in rural areas than urban that is unlikely.
Voters per seat in the other constituencies:
Reykjavík North 4,189
Reykjavík South 4,153
South 3,223
NE 2,957
The electoral discrimination of the capital region increased as its population grows at a much faster rate than in the rest of the country. Though the NW was close to losing a seat to the SW (would have happened if there was twice as many eligible voters per seat in SW than in NW).
Icelanders reproduced themselves as recently as 2010 (2.2 child per woman), so most of the growth is natural rather than immigration.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2016 16:05:06 GMT
Viðreisn founder Benedikt Jóhannesson claim the former leader of the Left Greens Steingrímur J. Sigfússon is secretly negotiating with IP and PP on forming a protectionist, anti-EU coalition between the three parties. LG obviously say that is pure fiction. Viðreisn seem a bit desperate here in the end game - LG would obviously collapse if the party ever entered into coalition with IP, and Katrín Jakobsdóttir has previously stated that this will never happen because "there is a Ginnungagap between the two parties" (Iceland probably being the only country where a leading politicians could talk about a Ginnungagap and expect to be understood). The Pirates have officially declared that they are not interested in the PM post, which is stating the obvious. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2016 16:19:40 GMT
The Pirates are back in the lead in new University of Iceland poll, but the margin to IP is too small to hold up when the difference in turnout of their respective electorates is taken into consideration. BF down to 6% and the Peoples Party at 3.8%. This may be high enough to convince some potential voters they have a chance and thereby get them over the threshold.  Narrow 32 seat Pirate/LG/SDA majority. "Centrists United" at 29. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2016 16:31:30 GMT
Biggest party among male voters: IP with 24%
Biggest party among female voters: Left Greens with 23%
Biggest party among seniors: IP with 25% of 60+ voters
Biggest party among young voters: Pirates with 39% of 18-29 year olds
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 21, 2016 17:28:03 GMT
Day two in Reykjavik and still more sign of activity by LG and nobody else.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2016 9:59:07 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2016 12:51:06 GMT
Representatives from Bright Future, the Pirate Party, SDA and the Left Greens will meet on Sunday and discuss "possible cooperation" between the parties. It seems the "old" opposition are now confident they will get a majority without Viðreisn.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2016 13:12:33 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 22, 2016 13:14:14 GMT
Vidreisn have acquired a large and attractive office just off the main street in Reykjavik. And they have been out and about a lot today. Other than that, still only LG floating around with adverts everywhere.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2016 13:30:50 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 24, 2016 13:11:39 GMT
Representatives from Bright Future, the Pirate Party, SDA and the Left Greens will meet on Sunday and discuss "possible cooperation" between the parties. It seems the "old" opposition are now confident they will get a majority without Viðreisn. And thus they did meet. www.mbl.is/frettir/kosning/2016/10/24/furdar_sig_a_leyndinni/ |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2016 13:24:05 GMT
Representatives from Bright Future, the Pirate Party, SDA and the Left Greens will meet on Sunday and discuss "possible cooperation" between the parties. It seems the "old" opposition are now confident they will get a majority without Viðreisn. And thus they did meet. www.mbl.is/frettir/kosning/2016/10/24/furdar_sig_a_leyndinni/"Lækjarbrekka yesterday. Four parties who claim they do not discuss government formation discuss forming a government." |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2016 14:02:09 GMT
Viðreisn now says the do not rule out a coalition with either IP or PP in it, just the IP, PP, Viðreisn combo (= a de facto continuation of the current government). This is unlikely to make much difference in practice, but is likely only intended to reassure voters.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2016 15:34:44 GMT
Still a significant number of former Best Party affiliated musicians running for Bright Future, especially in Reykjavík North.
Party chairman Óttarr Proppé was lead sanger in Ham and his fellow band members S. Björn Blöndal and Sigurjón Kjartansson are both candidates. As are Einar Örn Benediktsson from Ghostigital and The Sugarcubes, and Karl Sigurðsson from Baggalútur.
Other creative types running for BF are the actresses Ilmur Kristjánsdóttir and Nína Dögg Filippusdóttir and Sigurður Eggertsson, who claim to be "happiness distributor".
Svala Björgvinsdóttir from Los Angeles based Steed Lord is running for SDA in the SW.
Berglind Häsler from Prins Póló and Skakkamanage is running for LG in the NW along with "supra-nature child" Dagrún Ósk Jónsdóttir. LG also has Ragnar Kjartansson from Trabant, who is mainly workng with visual arts these days.
IP haven't got any artists, but footballer Rúrik Gíslason from FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga is running in Reykjavík South. Same constituency as weightlifter Elías Mar Hrefnuson from PP, "life artist" Þorgerður E. Long from the Humanist Party and cirkus artist Unnur María Bergsveinsdóttir from the Peoples Front of Iceland.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Oct 24, 2016 19:42:37 GMT
IP haven't got any artists, but footballer Rúrik Gíslason from FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga is running in Reykjavík South. Wait, what?! All the other professions you mentioned (many of which are highly dubious) are things that people could easily give up at short notice to become an MP. Is he just a lijstduwer, or does he stand a serious chance of getting in? If so, will he be an absentee MP, resign immediately or give up professional football at what should be the peak of his career? I'm pleasantly surprised by how much I understood of the caption on that pic from Lækjarbrekka before I read the translation as well. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2016 19:56:00 GMT
IP haven't got any artists, but footballer Rúrik Gíslason from FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga is running in Reykjavík South. Wait, what?! All the other professions you mentioned (many of which are highly dubious) are things that people could easily give up at short notice to become an MP. Is he just a lijstduwer, or does he stand a serious chance of getting in? If so, will he be an absentee MP, resign immediately or give up professional football at what should be the peak of his career? I'm pleasantly surprised by how much I understood of the caption on that pic from Lækjarbrekka before I read the translation as well. Yes, he is no. 14. The caption is in Swedish. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Oct 24, 2016 20:10:45 GMT
Wait, what?! All the other professions you mentioned (many of which are highly dubious) are things that people could easily give up at short notice to become an MP. Is he just a lijstduwer, or does he stand a serious chance of getting in? If so, will he be an absentee MP, resign immediately or give up professional football at what should be the peak of his career? I'm pleasantly surprised by how much I understood of the caption on that pic from Lækjarbrekka before I read the translation as well. Yes, he is no. 14. The caption is in Swedish. Okay, thanks. I can't believe only the Dutch have a term for that, even though it can happen in any country with a list PR system. Ah! The digraph in the place name threw me off. That would explain it. Much easier to decipher for this reader of German than Icelandic text would be. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 24, 2016 21:05:19 GMT
Well, Icelandic is the only Scandinavian language which isn't Danish with different diacritics.
(Runs and hides under rodgrod med flode)
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