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Post by middleenglander on Jul 31, 2016 21:41:15 GMT
There are 20 by-elections for 21 seats during August, including a "double" by-election in Thanet, Northwood:
* 7 on 4th August
* 3 on 11th
* 9 on 18th including the "double" election
* 1 on 25th
9 of the by-elections are in District Councils, including the "double" election, all last contested in 2015
- one authority has annual elections although not in the particular ward
3 are in Unitary Councils last contested in 2015
1 is in a London Borough where the last elections were in 2014
3 are in County Councils previously contested in 2013 and
3 for councils in Scotland with elections last in 2012
- although one did have a by-election in 2014
Conservatives defend 8 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor, 5 after a resignation
Labour 6 seats, 3 after a death, 3 a resignation
Liberal Democrats 1 seat after a resignation
SNP 1 seat after a resignation
UKIP 3 seats, 1 death and 2 resignations although all 3 were sitting as something else
Independents 2 seats, 1 death and 1 resignation
Conservatives are contesting all 21 seats, Labour and Liberal Democrats 16 each, UKIP 13, Independents 10, Greens 8, SNP 3, Farnham Residents 3
- along with 1 each Communist, English Democrat, North East, Social Democrat, Socialist Labour and United Thanet, a total of 96 candidates for the 21 seats.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
We do need a few more competitors please to make this worthwhile.
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Post by marksenior on Aug 3, 2016 21:31:06 GMT
Ashford Lab 37 Con 30 UKIP 27 Green 6
Brighton Lab 46 Green 22 Con 20 UKIP 6 LDem 4 Ind 2
East Riding Con 38 Lab 27 UKIP 19 LDem 10 Ind 6
Eden LDem 55 Con 45
Newcastle Lab 37 Ind 26 UKIP 22 Con 15
Notts CC Con 42 Ind 34 Lab 24
Rushcliffe Con 51 Ind 28 Lab 21
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hempie
Forum Regular
Posts: 875
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Post by hempie on Aug 3, 2016 21:51:49 GMT
Ashford: Lab 42, Con 28, UKIP 23, Green 7
Brighton; Lab 45, Green 24, Con 19, UKIP 5, LD 5, Ind 2
East Riding: Con 40, Lab 26, UKIP 16, LD 13, Ind 5
Eden: LD 60, Con 40
Newcastle: Lab 36, Ind 24, UKIP 21, Con 19
Notts CC: Con 43, Ind 35, Lab 22
Rushcliffe: Con 50, Ind 29, Lab 21
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Post by greenhert on Aug 3, 2016 22:38:05 GMT
Ashford DC, Beaver: Labour 38, Conservative 32, UKIP 24, Green 6.
Brighton & Hove UA, East Brighton: Lab 43, Green 23, Con 21, Lib Dem 6, UKIP 5, Independent 2.
East Yorkshire UA, South West Holderness: Con 40, Lab 25, UKIP 18, Lib Dem 12, Independent 5.
Eden DC, Alston Moor: Lib Dem 57, Con 43.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Silverdale & Parkin: Lab 35, UKIP 22, Con 22, Independent 21.
Nottinghamshire CC, Bingham: Con 45, Independent 30, Lab 25.
Rushcliffe DC, Cranmer: Con 52, Independent 32, Lab 16.
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 3, 2016 22:55:35 GMT
Ashford: Lab 40, Con 30, UKIP 24, Green 6
Brighton; Lab 42, Green 20, Con 20, UKIP 8, LD 8, Ind 2
East Riding: Con 42, Lab 25, UKIP 16, LD 12, Ind 5
Eden: LD 51, Con 49
Newcastle: Lab 38, Ind 23, UKIP 23, Con 16
Notts CC: Con 50, Ind 28, Lab 22
Rushcliffe: Con 57, Ind 30, Lab 13
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,977 
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Post by maxque on Aug 4, 2016 1:52:54 GMT
Ashford DC, Beaver: Lab 33, Con 32, UKIP 31, Grn 4.
Brighton & Hove UA, East Brighton: Lab 50, Grn 18, Con 18, UKIP 8, LD 5, Ind 1
East Yorkshire UA, South East Holderness: Con 32, Lab 26, UKIP 21, Ind 13, LD 8
Eden DC, Alston Moor: LD 50.8, Con 49.2.
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Silverdale & Parksite: Lab 50, Con 21, UKIP 19, Ind 10.
Nottinghamshire CC, Bingham: Con 43.8, Ind 31.9, Lab 24.3.
Rushcliffe DC, Cranmer: Con 53.3, Ind 25, Lab 21.7.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 4, 2016 7:52:02 GMT
ASHFORD Beaver: Lab 35, C 34, UKIP 22, GP 9
BRIGHTON AND HOVE East Brighton: Lab 52, C 25, GP 15, UKIP 4, L Dem 2, Ind 2
EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE South West Holderness: C 42, Lab 22, UKIP 20, Ind 8, L Dem 8
EDEN Alston Moor: C 63, L Dem 37
NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME Silverdale and Parksite: Lab 37, UKIP 31, C 19, Ind 13
NOTTINGHAMSHIRE Bingham: C 45, Ind 30, Lab 25
RUSHCLIFFE Cranmer: C 59, Lab 31, Ind 10
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 4, 2016 10:29:18 GMT
Brighton & Hove UA - East Brighton Lab 45.6% Con 23.4% Grn 18.7% UKIP 5.7% LD 5.2% Ind 1.4% East Riding UA - South West Holderness Con 31.6% UKIP 23.1% Lab 21.5% Ind 19.5% LD 4.3% Nottinghamshire CC - Bingham Con 46.6% Ind 31.5% Lab 21.9% Ashford DC - Beaver Lab 39.7% Con 30.7% UKIP 24.1% Grn 5.5% Eden DC - Alston Moor LD 55.5% Con 44.5% Newcastle-under-Lyme BC - Silverdale & Parksite Lab 41.2% UKIP 31.8% Ind 13.9% Con 13.1% Rushcliffe DC - Cranmer Con 57.2% Ind 26.2% Lab 16.6% |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 4, 2016 20:18:10 GMT
7 entries with Pete Whitehead making a welcome return.
Ashford: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 1% (David Boothroyd & Maxque) to 14% hempie
Brighton & Hove: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 20% over Green (Greenhert) to 32% with Conservative & Green joint second (Maxque)
East Riding of Yorkshire: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 6% over Labour (Maxque) to 20% over Labour (David Boothroyd)
Eden: 6 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative with majority ranging from 1.6% (Maxque) to 20% hempie, David Boothroyd Conservative hold
Newcastle-under-Lyme: 100% Labour gin from UKIP sitting as Independent with majority ranging from 6% over UKIP (David Boothroyd) to 29% over Conservative (Maxque)
Nottinghamshire: 100% Conservative hold with majority over Independent ranging from 8% (hempie & Mark Senior) to 22% (Robert Waller)
Rushcliffe: 100% Conservative hold with majority all but David Boothroyd over Independent ranging from 20% (Greenhert) to 28.3% (Maxque)
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 5, 2016 0:40:38 GMT
Looks like Maxque, Mark Senior, Pete Whitehead, hempie, Greenhert, Robert Waller and David Boothroyd. Full result in the morning.
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 5, 2016 14:07:08 GMT
Ashford, Beaver
Maxque 22.1+10 faults, Mark Senior 30.1+10, Pete Whitehead 35.9+10, Greenhert & Robert Waller 36.1+10, hempie 38.1+10, David Boothroyd 40.1+10
Brighton & Hove, East Brighton
Maxque 19.2 faults, David Boothroyd 19.8, Mark Senior 24.0, Pete Whitehead 24.2, hempie 28.5, Greenhert 30.8, Robert Waller 31.0
East Yorkshire, South East Holderness
Mark Senior 17.1 faults, hempie 20.8, Greenhert 22.1, Robert Waller 22.8, David Boothroyd 23.6, Maxque 28.5, Pete Whitehead 38.3
Eden, Alston Moor
Mark Senior 0.8 faults, Pete Whitehead 1.8, Greenhert 4.8, Robert Waller 7.2, Maxque 7.6, hempie 10.8, David Boothroyd 35.2+10
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Silverdale & Parksite
Maxque 24.1 faults, Pete Whitehead 30.5, David Boothroyd 38.9, Robert Waller 40.1, Mark Senior 44.1, Greenhert & hempie 48.1
Nottinghamshire, Bingham
hempie 17.5 faults, Mark Senior 21.5, Maxque 22.1, Pete Whitehead 22.4, David Boothroyd & Greenhert 25.4, Robert Waller 29.4
Rushcliffe, Cramner
Maxque 2.9 faults, Mark Senior 8.9, hempie 10.9, Pete Whitehead 11.2, Greenhert 16.9, Robert Waller 18.4, David Boothroyd 27.1
and for the week:
136.5 Maxque
156.4 Mark Senior
174.3 Pete Whitehead
184.8 hempie
194.2 Greenhert
195.1 Robert Waller
230.1 David Boothroyd
Objections please by noon Sunday.
There are 3 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
We are away for a couple of days next week, so will be Friday evening at earliest before results are posted.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 10, 2016 22:31:15 GMT
My predictions for this week:
North Ayrshire UA, Irvine West: SNP 45, Lab 23, Con 20, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 5, Socialist Labour 2.
Renfrewshire UA, Renfrew South & Gallowhill: SNP 52, Lab 32, Con 11, Lib Dem 5.
Worcestershire CC, Ombersley: Con 57, UKIP 19, Liberal Democrats 16, Independent (Ingram) 8.
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 10, 2016 23:19:46 GMT
North Ayrshire UA, Irvine West: SNP 49, Lab 25, Con 18, Liberal Democrats 4, Green 2, Socialist Labour 2.
Renfrewshire UA, Renfrew South & Gallowhill: SNP 50, Lab 37, Con 9, Lib Dem 4.
Worcestershire CC, Ombersley: Con 51, UKIP 17, Liberal Democrats 27, Independent (Ingram) 5.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 11, 2016 0:05:32 GMT
NORTH AYRSHIRE Irvine West: SNP 49, Lab 26, C 16, S Lab P 4, L Dem 3, SGP 2
RENFREWSHIRE Renfrew South and Gallowhill: SNP 50, Lab 40, C 7, L Dem 3
WORCESTERSHIRE Ombersley: C 45, Ind 26, UKIP 15, L Dem 14
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,977
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Post by maxque on Aug 11, 2016 2:31:01 GMT
North Ayrshire UA, Irvine West: SNP 52, Lab 28, Con 12, LD 4, Grn 2, SLP 2.
Renfrewshire UA, Renfrew South & Gallowhill: SNP 59, Lab 33, Con 6, LD 2.
Worcestershire CC, Ombersley: Con 51, LD 18, UKIP 16, Ind 15
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Post by marksenior on Aug 11, 2016 6:40:43 GMT
North Ayrshire SNP 44 Lab 24 Con 22 LD 4 Green 4 Soc 2
Renfrewshire SNP 56 Lab 30 Con 10 LD 4
Worcs CC Con 60 UKIP 18 LD 14 Ind 8
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hempie
Forum Regular
Posts: 875
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Post by hempie on Aug 11, 2016 7:22:04 GMT
North Ayrshire,Irvine West: SNP 50, Lab 22, Con 16, Lib Dem 5, Green 4, Soc Lab 3
Renfrewshire, Renfrew South & Gallowhill: SNP 54, Lab 33, Con 7, Lib Dem 6
Worcestershire, Ombersley: Con 54, Lib Dem 24, UKIP 18, Ind 4
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 11, 2016 7:37:54 GMT
Worcestershire CC - Ombersley
Con 57.4%
UKIP 19.9%
LD 16.8%
Ind 5.9%
North Ayrshire - Irvine West
SNP 49.2%
Lab 29.6%
Con 14.7%
LD 3.4%
Grn 1.6%
SLP 1.5%
Renfrewshire - Renfrew South & Gallowhill
SNP 56.3%
Lab 35.4%
Con 5.8%
LD 2.5%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 12, 2016 14:55:06 GMT
7 entries this week all shipshape and on time. Complete unanimity on Tory hold in Worcestershire and SNP lead (on 1st prefs) in Ayrshre and Renfrewshire
North Ayrshire: Mark Senior 22.7, Greenhert 25.9, David Boothroyd 25.9, Pete Whitehead 27.1, Robert Waller 27.9, Hempie 33.9, Maxque 33.9
Renfrewshire: Robert Waller 8.7, David Boothroyd 12.7, Greenhert 14.6, Pete Whitehead 18.2, Hempie 20.6, Mark Senior, 20.6, Maxque 22.6
Worcestershire: Mark Senior 8.1, Greenhert 12.5, Pete Whitehead 15.7, Maxque 24.5, Hempie 26.3, Robert Waller 30.3, David Boothroyd 38.1
For the week
Mark Senior 51.4
Greenhert 52.9
Pete Whitehead 61.0
Robert Waller 67.0
David Boothroyd 76.7
Hempie 80.8
Maxque 81.0
For the month to date
Mark Senior 207.8
Maxque 217.5
Pete Whitehead 235.3
Greenhert 247.1
Robert waller 262.1
Hempie 265.6
David Boothroyd 306.8
all subject to verification by the RO of course..
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 12, 2016 21:50:43 GMT
I concur with Pete Whitehead's figures above with a one minor rounding difference. Objections please by noon Sunday.
There are 9 by-elections for 10 seats next week. Thanet, Northwood has two vacancies with Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and UKIP each having 2 candidates whilst United Thanet and Independent have just one. Predictions should be based on the average vote for those with 2 candidates.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on Thursday.
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