It's an art rather than a science.
I trust you do not mean results should be looked at subjectively rather than objectively.
The Independent in Honiton St Michael's could have stood as Independent East Devon Independent Alliance (IEDA) in 2015 if he and the alliance had decided to. But he stood as an Independent so should be regarded as separate from the IEDA.
There is an alternative but slightly more complex way at looking at results such as Exmouth Littleham and Honiton St Michaels's in 2015.
Exmouth Littleham: electorate 5,802, ballot papers issued 3,941, turnout 67.9%, rejected papers 29, valid papers 3,912, potential valid votes 11,736.
Total valid votes 9,452 - Conservative 1,667, 1,636, 1,489, IEDA 1,224, Liberal Democrat 1,170, UKIP 1,164, Green 1,102
So 42.6% of all valid voters (1,667 out of 3,912) voted for the highest place Conservative either as part of the slate or with a personal vote
- likewise 41.8% for the second placed Conservative and 38.1% for the third with a somewhat contrived average of 40.8%.
However 2,284 potential votes (11,736 - 9,452) were not used giving 80.5% vote usage overall. Theoretically it could mean, for example, most electors voting for UKIP gave just one vote for UKIP but did not use their second and third votes. Nevertheless in reality the position would be much more complicated and only by attending the count could one even guess how the votes were distributed. Even so if someone voted Liberal Democrat, Green and IEDA there is no way of knowing which was their first, second and third choices.
Therefore using this method to analyse the 2015 result the best, but nevertheless possibly inaccurate, estimate based on highest placed votes is Conservative 42.6%, IEDA 15.1%, Liberal Democrat 14.4%, UKIP 14.3%, Green 13.6% or Conservative 40.8%, IEDA 15.5%, Liberal Democrat 14.9%, UKIP 14.8%, Green 14.0% based on the average Conservative vote.
Honiton St Michael's: electorate 5,210, ballot papers issued 3,359, turnout 64.5%, rejected papers 112, valid papers 3,247, potential valid votes 9,741.
Total valid votes 7,476 - Conservative 1,400, 1,390, 1,304, UKIP 734, 636, 599, IEDA 723, Independent 690.
So 43.1% of all valid voters (1,400 out of 3,247) voted for the highest placed Conservative either as part of the slate or with a personal vote
- likewise 42.8% for the second placed Conservative and 40.2% for the third with a somewhat contrived average of 42.0%.
Similarly 22.6% of all valid voters voted for the highest placed UKIP, 19.6% second placed UKIP and 18.4% for the third with a somewhat contrived average of 20.2%.
However 2,265 potential votes (9,741 - 7,476) were not used giving 76.7% vote usage overall. Unless there was very substantial splitting the ticket by Conservative and UKIP voters it is difficult to see how more than half, and possibly as low as one third, of IEDA votes voted for Independent and vice-versa.
The best, but again possibly inaccurate, estimate based on highest place Conservative and UKIP votes is Conservative 43.1%, UKIP, 22.6%, IEDA 17.5%, Independent 16.7% whilst on average votes Conservative 42.0%, UKIP 20.2%, IEDA 19.3%, Independent 18.5%.
At the by-election the Conservative polled 45.3% share in Exmouth Littleham, a little above the 2015 estimate, and 39.8% in Honiton St Michael's, a little below the estimate. This may be a reflection of the previous candidate in the former ward dying whilst in the latter the Councillor resigned barely a year after being elected. The UKIP by-election vote in Honiton St Michael's was a few percent down on 2015 consistent with comparable contests on Thursday.
There was a Town Council by-election in Exmouth Littleham on 14th April 2016. The result was Conservative 36.7%, IEDA 29.7%, Liberal Democrat 21.7% and Labour 11.8%. Some 233 fewer people voted in the District Council election (and corresponding Town Council election) this week than in April for the Town Council. The Conservative vote was up 18, the Labour votes up 23 with the Liberal Democrat vote up 154 whilst there was no IEDA who had previously polled 428 votes.
