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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2016 0:24:08 GMT
Most leader Bozo Petrov has given HDZ) and SDP five days to declare their opinions on the guarantees his party had demanded in exchange for its support to a new government.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2016 1:12:42 GMT
Starting to get a Spain feeling from the. You hold a new election which sort absolutely none of the problems the previous one caused. Well, last time SDP with the initially 19 MOSTies would have been possible. This time MOST reminds me of the LibDems 2010... |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2016 7:06:41 GMT
Preliminary official results after 100% of the votes counted by the State Electoral Commission (DIP)
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) et al - 61
People's Coalition (SDP, HNS, HSS) - 54
Most - 13
Human shield (Živi zid) - 8
Istrian Democratic Party (IDS) - 3
"For the Prime Minister" (mainly Milan Bandic and the Reformists) - 2
Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB) - 1
General Zeljko Glasnovic - 1
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2016 7:35:19 GMT
It will almost certainly have to be the HDZ coalition + Most (75 with the General). Plus the Bandit and/or some ethics. For some reason I have never fully understood you seem to need 79 sets and not just a simple majority of 76.
HDZ/Most was of course the coalition that broke down... but with 8 seats to Human Blockade that looks like the only real option (apart from the unthinkable Grand Coalition).
People's Coalition + Most + IDS + all ethnic minority seats is 78 (would be very shaky.. a couple of the ethnic parties are fierce rivals).
Who has actually gotten the two seats in Milan the Bandit's hotchpotch "For the PM" coalition might make a (small) difference. His allies are less bad than him.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2016 18:37:52 GMT
For some reason I have never fully understood you seem to need 79 sets and not just a simple majority of 76. Who has actually gotten the two seats in Milan the Bandit's hotchpotch "For the PM" coalition might make a (small) difference. His allies are less bad than him. I have now and again heard, that the president appoints whoever brings 76 SupportSignatures, neverever of 79 to be needed. (Perhaps ~79 are seen as sufficient for a WorkingMajority?) Bandic himself candidated in the II., what gives the VI.-seat once again to Miodrag - nomen est omen - Demo (also B365). |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2016 19:22:10 GMT
Former PM Zoran Milanovic has announced he will not be running in the internal SDP elections for the leadership that will be held within five months.
“After yesterday's results, I won’t run again for president of the SDP… I am to blame for all this.”
“We have seen the results - the turnout was the smallest ever. It went in favour of the HDZ. This is a fact that should be accepted and not analysed too much.”
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2016 19:30:38 GMT
A bit surprising, but going towards the centre (and even incorporating a centre-right party in his coalition) was a mistake. HDZ should have been vulnerable after all their crazy antics and especially their "cleansing" of (alleged) leftist from the public broadcaster done by a "Muslim Croatian ultranationalist" nutcase with fascist ties.
The golden rule in Croatian politics is that HDZ win when the turnout is low, and this time the turnout was the lowest ever. The left depends on turning out their voters by providing a clear contrast on both economics and social issues (secularism/civic nationalism). Milanovic should have gone on the attack, not trying to cozy up to Most and being statesmanlike.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2016 19:40:09 GMT
Milanovic won the last internal party elections in April comfortably gainst SDP veteran Zlatko Komadina. But its unclear whether he is running again (though I would assume so).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2016 20:37:19 GMT
Ftr turnout was a measly 52.38% vs. 60.82% last year. A drop of 8.44%, that totally undermined the basis for the general leftist dominance in the polls.
It was 54.32% in 2011, 59.50% in 2007 and 61.7% in 2003. Zoran Milanović tie in 2011 was impressive (and a bit lucky), but this time it was two points lower and then it gets too hard.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2016 20:45:09 GMT
Minority reps:
Serbs: Milorad Pupovac, Mile Horvat and Boris Milosevic (all SDSS like in 2015)
Hungarians: Robert Jankovics
Italians: Furio Radin
Czechs and Slovaks: Vladimir Bilek
Albanians, Bosniaks, Macedonians, Montenegrins, and Slovenians: Ermina Lekaj Prljaskaj
Austrians, Bulgarians, Germans, Jews, Poles, Roma, Romanians, Russians, Ruthenians, Turks, Ukrainians, and Vlachs: Veljko Kajtaz
Serb Mirko Rašković and Hungarian Sándor Juhász are out after very short terms, being replaced by Boris Milosevic and Robert Jankovics respectively. The rest were reelected.
Like last time the three multi-etnic seats went to a Czech, an Albanian, and a Roma.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2016 21:10:06 GMT
For some reason I have never fully understood you seem to need 79 sets and not just a simple majority of 76. Who has actually gotten the two seats in Milan the Bandit's hotchpotch "For the PM" coalition might make a (small) difference. His allies are less bad than him. Bandic himself candidated in the II., what gives the VI.-seat once again to Miodrag - nomen est omen - Demo (also B365). Sorry, eventually a wrong information: In VI.'s Bandic-list Mr.Demo was on the first place, but another one received more PreferenceVotes. (I don't know whether they are enough to capture the seat.) |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2016 21:11:07 GMT
Has anyone found the total vote+%-numbers?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2016 21:42:20 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2016 21:51:18 GMT
I.-X.:
54.37% -8.43% Participated
54.35% -8.41% Valid
98.08% -0.18% ListVotes
36.27% +2.29% HDZ+HSLS+HDS
33.82% +0.01% SDP+HNS+HSU+HSS
09.91% -3.85% MOST
06.23% +1.91% ZZ
04.04% +0.66% Bandic365+Ref.+HSS(SR)+BUZ+NV
02.29% +0.37% IDS+PGS+RI
02.06% *2.06% Pametno+ZG
01.25% -0.14% HDSSB+HKS
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2016 21:55:19 GMT
Thank You! Yet, I found at that site no TotalResult. But my numbers (s.a.) are hopefully not too wrong. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2016 22:28:25 GMT
SagrebSity:
57.17% -10.48% Participated
57.08% -10.43% Valid
98.45% -0.39% ListVotes
36.65% +0.09% SDP+
32.12% +5.36% HDZ+
10.72% -7.43% MOST
06.66% +2.92% ZZ+
06.44% -0.95% Bandic+
04.15% *4.15% Pametno+
00.44% -2.27% ORaH+
n.c. -0.77% Ref.+Progr.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 12, 2016 22:35:31 GMT
On the HDZ-lists 1 HDS (X.) and HSLS (II.) are certainly elected. The HSLS-leader (I.) is on third place, but received very few PreferenceVotes. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2016 0:42:00 GMT
The composition of the two big coalitions:
HDZ 59
HSLS 1
Brank Hrg (HSS right faction, which didn't team up with the centre-left, rans as an Indie on the HDZ list) 1
SDP 40
HNS 9
HSS 4
HSU 1
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2016 1:30:31 GMT
Both the Labourists and ORaH failed to get any seats and the new parliament has no genuine left wing - there are simply no parties to the left of SDP any longer.
Human Blockade is anti-capitalist, banker-bashing and anti-establishment, but not left wing in any meaningful sense. Their leader Ivan Sincic is anti-abortion, often vaguely homophobic/transphobic, on friendly terms with the leader of the fascist micro party Croatian Pure Party of Rights, prone to conspiracy theories like chemtrails and anti-vaccination, and pandering to right-wing war veterans.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 13, 2016 12:00:51 GMT
The composition of the two big coalitions: HDZ 59 HSLS 1 Brank Hrg (HSS right faction, which didn't team up with the centre-left, rans as an Indie on the HDZ list) 1 SDP 40 HNS 9 HSS 4 HSU 1 Very interesting! And HDS didn't get a MP in the X.? |
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