Serbian General Election 2016

[Deleted]

Mar 22, 2016 17:05:27 GMT @pjones said:

A snap general election has been called for 24 April

It was called on 17 January, so the campaign has been going on for a long time. 

The government is going to win in a landslide and its likely going to be one of the most boring elections of the season. 

[Deleted]

Josip Joska Broz (69), grandson of Josip Broz Tito, has joined the Serbian Socialist Party (SSP) for April’s election promising to "bring back left-wing policies". So after the recent election of Idi Amin’s grandson we might see yet another scion of a dictator as MP (though Tito of course one of "better" dictators and Amin one of the worst).



SSP has teamed up with the United Serbia Party (led by businessman Dragan Markovic) and Serbia’s Green Party. So it won't be a "true leftist" list.

[Deleted]

Latest poll:


250 seats elected in one national constituency using PR. There is a 5% threshold, but it doesn't apply to ethnic minority parties, which have 4% in this poll (=10 seats).

The government has called the election to get an unequivocal mandate to speed up the EU-membership process and has framed the election as a referendum on whether or not Serbia should be "a modern and European nation". They looks certain to retain their huge majority, and the most interesting aspect is probably the threshold since only the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), who are right wing populist Nationalists turned europhile and moderate Conservatives (but still with close ties to the Austrian FPÖ and United Russia), and their left populist allies in Milosevic old Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) are safely above the threshold. So in principle the whole opposition risks being wiped out (though that won't happen).

The SNS/SPS coalition has been in power since 2012, when the liberal and pro-Western Democratic Party was defeated. It had ruled in a coalition with the Socialists and various smaller centrist and centre-left parties 2008-2012.

Minority parties:
There are two Hungarian parties (one NatCon and the other LibCon and two Bosniak parties from Sanjak, one Conservative and mildly Islamist and the other more centrist and often allies with other minorities, though it doesn't seem like they do this time. The Vojvodina Social Democrats (LSV), are allied with the national Social Democrats and Liberals and are not a minority party as such, but includes many Hungarians. The rest of the minority groups are very small parties representing Croats, Romas etc.

[Deleted]

Hard right/Far right: 14.9
DSS-Dveri 5.7, the NatCon Democratic Party of Serbia + Dveri, who are quasi-Fascists
KR 1.0 (Patriotic Coalition), Nationalists
SRS 6.0 (Serbian Radical Party), hardcore europhobic pro-Russian Nationalists
SNP 2.2 (Serbian People’s Party), NatCons/right wing populists led by businessman Nenad Popović

Conservatives: 50.8
JS 1.4 (United Serbia, Populist Conservatives, run by a provincial Mayor and essentially a regional party - running on the SNS list)
SNS 49.4 (see above)

Centrists: 14.4
"Enough is enough" (DJB) 3.0, anti-corruption, Liberal protest party founded by an economist 
DS 6.4 (Democratic Party) 6.4 , the old pro-Western Liberal party founded by intellectuals in the 90s and main opponents of Milosevic)
SDS/LDP/LSV 5.0 (SDS is a breakaway of the DS left wing, LDP are Social Liberals and LSV are the Vojvodina Social Democrats - the Greens are in this alliance as well)

Left Populists: 14.6
PUPS 3.3 (United Pensioners), pensioners rights, but also generally pro-welfare/anti-austerity
SPS 11.3 (Serbian Socialist Party), "Democratic Socialists", but de facto Left Populist

Minorities 4.0

Others 1.3

[Dan]

Mar 27, 2016 14:04:45 GMT @odo said:

SRS 6.4 (Serbian Radical Party) 2.2, hardcore europhobic pro-Russian Nationalists

Slightly confused by this. Isn't the SRS the Serbian Radical Party (Srpska Radikalna Stranka)? If so, who's polling 6.4% and who's on 2.2%? Given that the SRS only got 2% in the last parliamentary elections, I wonder if there's been any bounce in their support following Karadzic's conviction, given that it was largely this party's supporters that were protesting the court's decision in the centre of Belgrade?

[Dan]

I voted for the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) largely in support of its desire to point Serbia in a more pro-EU direction, its attempts to focus the country's future on a more pro-business agenda rather than being fixated on nationalism, and for making some tough (but necessary) decisions about the future of Kosovo.

[Deleted]

Mar 27, 2016 21:32:01 GMT Dan said:

Mar 27, 2016 14:04:45 GMT @odo said:

SRS 6.4 (Serbian Radical Party) 2.2, hardcore europhobic pro-Russian Nationalists

Slightly confused by this. Isn't the SRS the Serbian Radical Party (Srpska Radikalna Stranka)? If so, who's polling 6.4% and who's on 2.2%? Given that the SRS only got 2% in the last parliamentary elections, I wonder if there's been any bounce in their support following Karadzic's conviction, given that it was largely this party's supporters that were protesting the court's decision in the centre of Belgrade?

Just an error - mixed two sentences. SRS is on 6.0, as the poll shows. They have been polling above their 2014 result almost from the start (started gaining a few months after the election), and have kept their current level since May last year. 

[Deleted]

SNS are now above 52% of the total vote in Serbia:



DJB is " Enough is enough" ("Dosta je bilo"). The party on 5.5 is DSS-Dveri.

[Deleted]

Serbian Radical Party leader Vojislav Seselj acquitted of war crimes. Should give them some positive media coverage.
www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/vojislav-seselj-hague-tribunal-war-crimes-verdict-03-31-2016

[Devil Wincarnate]

Yet another country we buggered up with the Treaty of Trianon.  That said, the Hungarian parties have been on the slide, especially round Subotica, as the local Magyars appear to think the Democratic Party is a better vehicle to achieve links with Hungary.

[bolbridge]

Apr 22, 2016 16:58:00 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Yet another country we buggered up with the Treaty of Trianon.  That said, the Hungarian parties have been on the slide, especially round Subotica, as the local Magyars appear to think the Democratic Party is a better vehicle to achieve links with Hungary.

It surprises me that they'd go for the DS rather than Tadic and co.

[Pete Whitehead]

Apr 22, 2016 16:58:00 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Yet another country we buggered up with the Treaty of Trianon.  That said, the Hungarian parties have been on the slide, especially round Subotica, as the local Magyars appear to think the Democratic Party is a better vehicle to achieve links with Hungary.

The treaty of Trianon of was an abomination, but God knows if there's a country that's been fυcked over more comprehensively than hungary it's Serbia and these people were on our side"

[Deleted]

Local election monitoring group CRTA says there have been a series of irregularities in several places across Serbia.

The most common was people voting twice, but in some locations, activists from the various political parties have been waiting in front of polling stations and writing down who voted and who didn't, contravening the electoral code.

In the northern town of Zrenjanin police have filed criminal charges against one person suspected of buying votes.

CRTA’s analysis also shows that 82% of polling stations opened on time, 7% were open earlier than envisaged and 11% were late.

[Deleted]

No exit polls, but preliminary results should be available at 10PM local time, which is 8PM UTC.

[Deleted]

Serbian turnout was 39.6 per cent by 4 pm.

Bojan Klacar, the executive director of the Centre for Free Elections and Democracy estimates that the overall turnout when the polls close will be more than 55%, up from the last elections in 2014, when turnout was 53%.

[Deleted]

Turnout in Serbia at 6pm was 47.68%. In central Serbia 47.44%, and in Vojvodina 48.34%; 47.14% in Belgrade.

37,901 Serbs in Kosovo had voted by 6pm = 35.28%, according to OSCE, which is facilitating the voting in Kosovo for Serbia’s parliamentary elections.

106,094 Kosovo Serbs are entitled to vote in the election.

[Georg Ebner]

11% counted:

56 Progressives, the others as expected
(11 Socialists, 8 Seselj,...)

[Deleted]

IPSOS prognosis:

Serbian Progressive Party 130
Socialist Party of Serbia 29
Serbian Radical Party 21
Democratic Party 17
“Dosta je bilo” (“Enough is enough”) 15
Boris Tadic & Co. 14
Democratic Party of Serbia 13
Bosniak and Hungarian minority parties 6
Others 5

[Deleted]

Nenad Milic from the Liberal Democratic Party of Serbia says there were significant irregularities at the polling stations “not seen since the 2000s”.

“These elections were far from fair. There were numerous irregularities, and citizens were threatened.”

[Deleted]

Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic’s (after preliminary results showed his Serbian Progressive Party won more than 50%).

“The results show strong support to the democracy, reforms and EU integrations.” 

"I am proud and touched as citizens decided to give me the honour of leading the country’s government again. "

Given all the irregularities this is a it much.