|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 18, 2021 11:26:43 GMT
Which existing seats, if proposed today as theoretical, would be the most obvious pitchfork bait?
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 18, 2021 11:48:37 GMT
We all know that Surrey is a bit awkward with 12 seats, and that if it didn't need to be paired with East Sussex, West Sussex could stand alone. Which means:  Crawley 74446 East Grinstead 73003 Burgess Hill & South Downs 71945 Horsham 70063 Chichester 70530 Bognor Regis 73762 Littlehampton 76540 Worthing 75581 Shoreham & Worthing East 71100 Hove 73726 Brighton Pavilion 75850 Brighton Kemptown 75254* Lewes 76061* Wealden 76672 Eastbourne 75598 Bexhill & Battle 76540 Hasting & Rye 75581 East Surrey & High Weald 76039 Reigate 69742 Epsom & Ewell 71089 Dorking 70780 SW Surrey 76200 Guildford 72173 Esher & Leatherhead 74529 Walton & Weybridge 73112 Spelthorne 72897 Runnymede 71675 Woking 71737 Surrey Heath 70701 The screenshot is from an old version which split Newhaven. I've since realised you can add Kingston, Plumpton and Ditchling to Kemptown instead, which is also bad but slightly less so. Obviously, this is not a serious suggestion, but I was surprised how well the seats in Surrey worked. Makes me wonder if putting Edenbridge in with Surrey would open up any new options in Kent. But for the pitchfork seat itself those other seats in Surrey and Sussex work really well. I wonder if there's actually a case for adding say Edenbridge from Kent to the East Surrey seat as that is the source of the problems elsewhere in Surrey as this demonstrates. Not sure if that would leave Kent short but we're only talking about fewer than 7,000 voters West Sussex works well, East Sussex is ugly even without the pitchfork seat. I did try using that map as a basis for a whole Sussex map, but I found I ended up with something that's about three wards different from the map you posted on January 6th. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2021 12:05:16 GMT
I hadn't noticed that you'd split Newhaven. Surrey is excellent though. As I say, using a far more logical bit of Kent (ie Edenbridge) to bring Tandridge up to strength would solve the Surrey problem and (I have checked) would not cause problems in Kent. Various all-Sussex plans have been put forward which work OK (personally I think my own is best but I'm probably biased)
Edit. If you can tolerate a four-district constituency, I'd suggest putting Tillingbourne in with Dorking, Chiddingfold into Farnham then moving Pilgrims, Normandy, Pirbright and Worplesdon into the Farnham seat and moving the five Godalming wards in with Guildford. If you can't its fine as is. It really sorts out the Reigate/Banstead/Leatherhead area
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
|
Post by YL on Jan 18, 2021 12:11:30 GMT
Which existing seats, if proposed today as theoretical, would be the most obvious pitchfork bait? Oldham East & Saddleworth comes to mind. |
|
ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,104
|
Post by ilerda on Jan 18, 2021 12:42:01 GMT
Which existing seats, if proposed today as theoretical, would be the most obvious pitchfork bait? Weaver Vale perhaps? Seems like a very odd combination to me. Or Mid Derbyshire. That's an abomination of an odds-and-sods constituency. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 18, 2021 12:46:16 GMT
Birmingham Hall Green is probably a candidate.
|
|
|
|
Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 18, 2021 12:51:07 GMT
Which existing seats, if proposed today as theoretical, would be the most obvious pitchfork bait? Dwyfor Meirionnydd caused an immense amount of disquiet when it was first proposed. A lot of people in western Caernarfonshire (if that isn't a contradiction in terms...) disliked the idea of being put in a constituency centered on Dolgellau intensely. |
|
|
|
Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 18, 2021 12:55:44 GMT
Birmingham Hall Green is probably a candidate. If we were starting from scratch, any option that bisected King's Heath would result in a mailbag of middle-class outrage. It would really be quite entertaining watching people from Moseley trying to stick Edgbaston into Ladywood, itself a very pitchforky idea. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Jan 18, 2021 12:59:57 GMT
Which existing seats, if proposed today as theoretical, would be the most obvious pitchfork bait? Weaver Vale, Cardiff South and Penarth. |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Jan 18, 2021 13:38:07 GMT
Which existing seats, if proposed today as theoretical, would be the most obvious pitchfork bait? Sedgefield? The way it stretches from Thornley right the way down to Darlington's suburbs (and actually snakes round the town too) isn't ideal. Fortunately, this new review might finally see that rural hinterland (or at least part thereof) included in a Darlington-based constituency. |
|
|
|
Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jan 18, 2021 14:37:13 GMT
This started off as a serious attempt to reduce the amount of change to Birmingham Hall Green. Then I realised that by rotating Small Heath, Billesley, Bournbrook and Selly Park, and Edgbaston, I would have the pitchfork version:  1 Solihull 70537 Yes 2 Meriden 74211 Yes 3 Sutton Coldfield 74584 Yes 4 Birmingham Erdington 76089 Yes 5 Birmingham Hodge Hill 77032 Yes 6 Birmingham Yardley 73975 Yes 7 Birmingham Hall Green 71621 Yes 8 Birmingham Northfield 75634 Yes 9 Birmingham Selly Oak 77018 Yes 10 Birmingham Ladywood 72798 Yes 11 Birmingham Moseley 74131 Yes 12 Birmingham Perry Barr 74928 Yes |
|
|
|
Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jan 18, 2021 15:26:12 GMT
Not pitchfork bait as such, but probably doesn't belong on the 'serious' threads  I'm almost loath to readmit Chipping Barnet to the fold the way it votes these days, but Borehamwood will probably keep it on the straight and narrow now.. Doesn't that bit of Borehamwood contain two of the most socialistically-inclined wards in Hertsmere? Having said that, you probably still don't have that much to worry about - I doubt that many of us in Chipping Barnet would recognise a pitchfork these days, let alone know how to use it (though I suppose some people in today's Hertfordshire might have better memories). And you haven't included the most Labour ward in the current Chipping Barnet constituency, while you have included the most Conservative ward - complete with those parts of that ward which were never in Hertfordshire - so the constituency would be somewhat more reliably Conservative even without taking account of the returning parts of Borehamwood. Talking of which - I might remark that your use of modern wards manages not only to include parts of the Whetstone and Woodside Park areas from Middlesex (to say nothing of South Mimms) but also to exclude the traditionally Hertfordshire Lyonsdown area. And historical purists with memories of earlier centuries might even also complain about the inclusion of Monken Hadley and the Urban Parish of South Mimms. Finally, you might want to repeat your exercise once the new Barnet ward boundaries are available in Boundary Assistant - you will probably end up on balance inadvertently including slightly more of Middlesex, particularly around Mill Hill East, but elsewhere some ward boundaries do return closer to (though pretty well never exactly on) the pre-1965 Hertfordshire-Middlesex border. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 18, 2021 16:38:13 GMT
I suppose I could have used the polling districts for a more accurate representation of the county boundary but we only have the 2015 numbers for those. My point about Borehamwood was that while it always formed the Labour stronghold in Reggie Maudling's old Barnet seat it is nowadays (at least in the last couple of elections) more Conservative than much of the more traditionally Conservative areas in Barnet itself (notably Brunswick Park) though as you say the most Labour area, Coppetts - the grotty end of Friern Barnet in effect, is in Middlesex and therefore not included.
I'd also make the observation that while it may be true that there is little use for pitchforks in the heavily urban Chipping Barnet these days, the constituency (especially if it excluded South Mimms as you rightly say it should) rather resembles a two-pronged pitchfork
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2021 10:10:45 GMT
This started off as a serious attempt to reduce the amount of change to Birmingham Hall Green. Then I realised that by rotating Small Heath, Billesley, Bournbrook and Selly Park, and Edgbaston, I would have the pitchfork version: 1 Solihull 70537 Yes 2 Meriden 74211 Yes 3 Sutton Coldfield 74584 Yes 4 Birmingham Erdington 76089 Yes 5 Birmingham Hodge Hill 77032 Yes 6 Birmingham Yardley 73975 Yes 7 Birmingham Hall Green 71621 Yes 8 Birmingham Northfield 75634 Yes 9 Birmingham Selly Oak 77018 Yes 10 Birmingham Ladywood 72798 Yes 11 Birmingham Moseley 74131 Yes 12 Birmingham Perry Barr 74928 Yes Is that orange one actually contiguous? |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jan 20, 2021 10:52:27 GMT
My intention was to start on the outside, go along the edge, and gradually coil inwards towards the middle. I had to deviate from the plan in a number of places in order to avoid bottlenecks, avoid exclaves, and keep within the limits at all times.  |
|
bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,593 
|
Post by bsjmcr on Jan 20, 2021 21:03:53 GMT
Which existing seats, if proposed today as theoretical, would be the most obvious pitchfork bait? I know as much about London geography as what I know of Mars but I've seen on here that the PM's own Uxbridge and South Ruislip isn't the best of shapes and that the links between the two components are quite tenuous? Yet 'South Ruislip' is also sufficiently different to the rest of Ruislip (though there isn't a North Ruislip?) which is a case for its annexation? Possible chicken run in '24 if he stands at all? He could go next-door but the new MP there is just that - brand new and surely would want another term at least! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2021 23:40:42 GMT
My intention was to start on the outside, go along the edge, and gradually coil inwards towards the middle. I had to deviate from the plan in a number of places in order to avoid bottlenecks, avoid exclaves, and keep within the limits at all times. In all honesty and sincerity I'd submit that to the BCNI. This too much complacency amongst both sides in Northern Ireland and you may have just discovered a great bit reset button. |
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on Jan 20, 2021 23:43:48 GMT
My intention was to start on the outside, go along the edge, and gradually coil inwards towards the middle. I had to deviate from the plan in a number of places in order to avoid bottlenecks, avoid exclaves, and keep within the limits at all times. Belfast Titanic will go down well. |
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Jan 21, 2021 0:29:58 GMT
Which existing seats, if proposed today as theoretical, would be the most obvious pitchfork bait? Meriden has always been a ridiculous seat, putting millionaire's row in with Chelmsley Wood. |
|
Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
|
Post by Harry Hayfield on Jan 21, 2021 6:17:15 GMT
Of the current seats that exist the one that has always stuck out like a sore thumb for me is Cardiff Central. It's almost like it's the old University of Wales seat right in the middle of the capital that is so tiny it might as well not even exist.
|
|
