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Post by krollo on Mar 5, 2016 18:01:24 GMT
At the rather close Lib Dem leadership election of 2007, Nick Clegg won with a margin of 511 votes over Chris Huhne. The timing of the election meant that about a thousand votes, that in ordinary circumstances would have arrived in sufficient time to be valid, were delayed due to the Christmas rush. It was later discovered that these votes would have given Huhne the victory.
Suppose that these votes had arrived on time. How would the Liberal Democrats have fared? The most obvious thing to say is that if Huhne had ended up as deputy PM, his 2013 resignation could have brought the Coalition to its knees. Yet would things have even got to that stage? As Huhne had a major role in the coalition negotiations, it may well have got to a similar situation in the end. Yet how would it have impacted on the 2010 results in the first place?
Additionally, who would have ended up leading after 2013? An untainted Clegg could potentially have stemmed the flow of votes to some extent; yet a major scandal regarding their previous leader could have dug them into an even deeper hole that no-one had a chance of getting out of.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 5, 2016 18:31:58 GMT
You are assuming that, if he had ended up as DPM, his wife would still have "shopped" him.
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on Mar 5, 2016 20:18:19 GMT
You are assuming that, if he had ended up as DPM, his wife would still have "shopped" him. Would Huhne have gone into coalition, or would he have gone for confidence and supply?
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 5, 2016 20:19:43 GMT
Would there have been a Huhnemania? Would anyone have agreed with Chris?
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Mar 5, 2016 21:07:31 GMT
You are assuming that, if he had ended up as DPM, his wife would still have "shopped" him. Would Huhne have gone into coalition, or would he have gone for confidence and supply? That's what I think would have happened, with another election within 2 years.
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Post by marksenior on Mar 6, 2016 14:24:02 GMT
At the rather close Lib Dem leadership election of 2007, Nick Clegg won with a margin of 511 votes over Chris Huhne. The timing of the election meant that about a thousand votes, that in ordinary circumstances would have arrived in sufficient time to be valid, were delayed due to the Christmas rush. It was later discovered that these votes would have given Huhne the victory. This is factually incorrect although the margin would have been less than 511 it would still have been in 3 figures .
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on Mar 7, 2016 5:59:53 GMT
At the rather close Lib Dem leadership election of 2007, Nick Clegg won with a margin of 511 votes over Chris Huhne. The timing of the election meant that about a thousand votes, that in ordinary circumstances would have arrived in sufficient time to be valid, were delayed due to the Christmas rush. It was later discovered that these votes would have given Huhne the victory. This is factually incorrect although the margin would have been less than 511 it would still have been in 3 figures . This is a what-if topic. So "What if" those votes arrived on time AND changed the outcome.
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 7, 2016 8:06:32 GMT
At the time I felt Huhne was clearly the better candidate under every heading. I feel he was unlucky then and with his choice of wife and subsequent partners. Very many of us could have ended up with a vindictive set-up like that. He was very very unlucky.
On the what if, I suggest he would have possibly negotiated a better coalition deal but would have certainly gone for one rather than mere support. he might have been more effective by not falling into the 'Fees Trap', better arrangements for PR, and probably senior ministry for him rather than useless Deputy PM role? In fact he could have suggested Clegg for that Deputy role and taken Foreign Secretary. He would have been an effective Cof theE but Conservatives could not have allowed that as the role is pivotal and already earmarked for Osborne by the Cameron/Osborne personal agreement.
I think it would have been different and better for Conservatives and LDs.
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Post by marksenior on Mar 7, 2016 9:38:20 GMT
This is factually incorrect although the margin would have been less than 511 it would still have been in 3 figures . This is a what-if topic. So "What if" those votes arrived on time AND changed the outcome. Yes it is a what-if topic but the poster stated as a fact that it was later discovered that the late votes would have given Huhne victory . In fact they split roughly 65 -35% in his favour and Clegg's majority would have been circa 150 .
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 7, 2016 10:10:52 GMT
On the what if, I suggest he would have possibly negotiated a better coalition deal but would have certainly gone for one rather than mere support. he might have been more effective by not falling into the 'Fees Trap', better arrangements for PR, and probably senior ministry for him rather than useless Deputy PM role? In fact he could have suggested Clegg for that Deputy role and taken Foreign Secretary. The Deputy Prime Ministership can be held in combination with just about any other post including ministries - e.g. Morrison (in his last months) and Eden were Foreign Secretary, Whitelaw was Home Secretary and Prescott was Secretary of State for Environment, Transport and the Regions and then basically secretary of state for Communities and Local Government. And it would have been ridiculous to have the Lib Dem leader in government but another Lib Dem as DPM. The real problems here were Clegg's other two posts. It's hard to be Mr Anti-Establishment when you're the Lord President of the Council and it confirmed the belief that hung parliaments would lead to "President Clegg". And having Clegg as Minister for Constitutional Reform sank a lot of proposals because they became distrusted due to their main backer. That portfolio really should have been handled by either a low profile minister or some veteran elder statesperson with nothing to personally gain. Those with a long memory of this forum will recall that a number of times I suggested moving Clegg to Secretary of State for Health, keeping the DPM title. It would have been great in many regards - give Clegg a ministry of relevance to people's day to day lives, give Health the most senior available Cabinet minister, allow the Conservatives to evacuate a difficult policy area, allow the constitutional reform mess to be quietly put to one side to allow tempers to cool and so forth. (And to maintain the balance of ministries, it might also have allowed for a way to end another minister's confusion about whether or not he was in government by giving BIS to a Conservative and cutting Cable altogether.)
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 7, 2016 11:21:14 GMT
I feel he was unlucky then and with his choice of wife and subsequent partners. . did you write that with a straight face? Yes. I am a cynical old bastard but I thought he was a man of quality hit by a train of events. Many of us could have been in that position. I know I could. I do believe he was a better politician, manager, minister and negotiator than Clegg who was a well meaning innocent ready for plucking and only partially plucked by incompetent Cameron who probably quite liked him? Now I would have given him a thorough shafting in the final year to seal the fate of his party, but I am not very nice in politics.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Mar 7, 2016 12:38:41 GMT
No Cleggmania (or clearly Huhnemania) as he wouldn't have debated anywhere near as well, probable Tory majority and him being shopped probably still would have happened but that whole episode would have been a blip in what would have turned into a parliament full of us riding high in the polls, possibly with Clegg as leader after Huhne's resignation.
Huhne would have been a poor leader regardless in hindsight, and I voted for him!
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 7, 2016 12:46:57 GMT
No Cleggmania (or clearly Huhnemania) as he wouldn't have debated anywhere near as well, probable Tory majority and him being shopped probably still would have happened but that whole episode would have been a blip in what would have turned into a parliament full of us riding high in the polls, possibly with Clegg as leader after Huhne's resignation. Huhne would have been a poor leader regardless in hindsight, and I voted for him! I don't agree than scenario but I do like it...........And it would have suited you better as a party as well.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 7, 2016 13:05:56 GMT
At the rather close Lib Dem leadership election of 2007, Nick Clegg won with a margin of 511 votes over Chris Huhne. The timing of the election meant that about a thousand votes, that in ordinary circumstances would have arrived in sufficient time to be valid, were delayed due to the Christmas rush. It was later discovered that these votes would have given Huhne the victory. Suppose that these votes had arrived on time. How would the Liberal Democrats have fared? The most obvious thing to say is that if Huhne had ended up as deputy PM, his 2013 resignation could have brought the Coalition to its knees. Yet would things have even got to that stage? As Huhne had a major role in the coalition negotiations, it may well have got to a similar situation in the end. Yet how would it have impacted on the 2010 results in the first place? Additionally, who would have ended up leading after 2013? An untainted Clegg could potentially have stemmed the flow of votes to some extent; yet a major scandal regarding their previous leader could have dug them into an even deeper hole that no-one had a chance of getting out of. First question: What if Chris Huhne had won the leadership and not Nick Clegg? Well, given that they both fired salvoes at each other my personal feeling is "There wouldn't have been a whole load of difference between 2007 and the end of 2009". As 2010 and rolled around though (with the average polls pointing to a hung Parliament) then the media would have focused more and more on the Lib Dems and by association the leader. Second question: Would Chris have done better in the debates than Nick Clegg? Well, that's a rather subjective question to which I cannot answer, what I can say is though that according to my software that I have for general elections, if the Liberal Democrats wanted 100 MP's (as some forecasts during the general election suggested) they would need a minimum of 32%, so the question becomes "Could Chris have created a poll rating of 32% or higher and sustain it for the whole duration of the campaign?" Third question: What would have happened after 2013? Answer: The same as in 2013. The Liberal Democrats would be unable to function after their leader was found guilty of a criminal offence and most likely would have dissolved.
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 7, 2016 16:57:19 GMT
As a side point, the Curse of Lembit would have persisted as yet again he would have backed a losing candidate.
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 7, 2016 17:18:02 GMT
Third question: What would have happened after 2013? Answer: The same as in 2013. The Liberal Democrats would be unable to function after their leader was found guilty of a criminal offence and most likely would have dissolved. They survived their leader being charged with conspiracy to murder, so I rather doubt the LDs would have dissolved.
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Post by Guest on Mar 7, 2016 19:30:58 GMT
I went to a lecture (the launch of the 2015 Nuffield guide, in fact) where Matthew d'Ancona, in relation to the 2010 election, said "All the wrong people in the Conservative party" were clamouring for a minority government. You knew exactly who he meant. If Huhne had won the leadership and only gone for confidence and supply, I guess this would mean a Tory minority government only on the sufferance of (a) Huhne and (b) "all the wrong people in the Conservative party", and Huhne can pull the plug any time if he doesn't like Tory policy, while Cameron's policy is being pushed to the right by all the wrong people. And so, a second election in late 2010 or 2011, where both Tories and Lib Dems get crushed for playing games.
By the time he comes before the beak he is still MP for Eastleigh but no longer leader.
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jluk234
Conservative
Next May Make Swinney Pay!
Posts: 431
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Post by jluk234 on Aug 22, 2016 20:07:15 GMT
If Chris Huhne was worse than Clegg as leader then there might have been a swing to the Conservatives from the LDs and if the swing was just right then Chris Huhne could lose his seat. For example, a 4% swing from the LDs to the Conservatives would make Eastleigh a Conservative gain and they would have a majority of 1%.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 23, 2016 9:38:27 GMT
I always expected Chris Huhne to get a much higher vote than he did in 2010.
Had he been leader, what with the extra exposure plus the debates, his seat would have been safe.
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 23, 2016 9:55:45 GMT
I always expected Chris Huhne to get a much higher vote than he did in 2010. Had he been leader, what with the extra exposure plus the debates, his seat would have been safe. I think the seat would have been considerably safer and that under his leadership the party would have had a higher poll rating and come in with more seats in 2010 rather than fewer. As senior minister, leader and possibly DPM, I think the wife would have been leant on and 'persuaded' not to be 'silly'. It would all have been different.
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