2018 Review - Northern Ireland

[YL]

Sept 23, 2016 18:04:37 GMT phoenixparnell said:

Hi guys

This is my first post. I've been looking at the proposals since them came out and stumbled across your forum. I've had a go at it. I'd be interested to hear what people think.

I think it's quite good, modulo that I think the BCNI's position is indeed that they're only supposed to make use of the extra flexibility available to them in the electorate range if they really have to. So I'd be looking at modifying it to get those four seats up to the lower limit for the rest of the UK. Glenshane can move a bit closer to Coleraine, and FST to Dungannon, I think in both cases without taking any of the actual towns; Antrim and Down might need a bit more work.

I'm surprised doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ hasn't commented on your names.

[obsie]

Sept 23, 2016 18:04:37 GMT phoenixparnell said:

Hi guys

This is my first post. I've been looking at the proposals since them came out and stumbled across your forum. I've had a go at it. I'd be interested to hear what people think.

1 North-East Down 70529
2 Lower Castlereagh 72448

Castlereagh and Dufferin if you're going with barony names, or Mid Down.

3 South-East Belfast 75279
4 South Down 73134 
5 Newry & Armagh 74715
6 Lower Iveagh 72717

Lower Iveagh is a bit too large; Iveagh a bit too small. West or North West Down might be better.

7 Upper Bann & Blackwater 76904
8 South Antrim 77986 
9 South-West Belfast 76304
10 North-West Belfast 72437
11 East Antrim 75403
12 Slemish 72674
13 Dunluce & Rathlin 70693

Mid Antrim and North Antrim and Coleraine might be better. There isn't the Derry/Londonderry bugbear to avoid here.

14 Glenshane 69438
15 North Tyrone 71565 
16 Foyle 71398 
17 Fermanagh  & South Tyrone 69745 

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sept 8, 2016 11:15:07 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Here's my Northern Ireland suggestion

Antrim County (71,924)
Causeway Coast and Glens: Atlantic, Ballycastle, Ballymoney East, Ballymoney North, Ballymoney South, Clogh Mills, Dervock, Dundooan, Dunloy, Giant's Causeway, Hopefield, Kinbane, Loughguile and Stranocum, Lurigethan, Mountsandel, Portrush and Dunluce, Portstewart, Quarry, Rasharkin, Route, Torr Head and Rathlin, University, Windy Hall
Mid and East Antrim: Ahoghill, Cullybackey, Glenravel, Grange, Kirkinriola, Maine, Portglenone

Armagh County with Banbridge (75,806)
Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon: Banbridge East, Banbridge North, Banbridge South, Banbridge West, Blackwatertown, Cathedral, Demesne, Gransha, Hamiltonsbawn, Keady, Loughbrickland, Loughgall, Markethill, Navan, Rathfriland, Richhill, Seagahan, The Mall
Newry, Mourne and Down: Camlough, Crossmaglen, Forkhill, Mullaghbane, Newtownhamilton

Ballymena (77,437)
Mid and East Antrim: Academy, Ardeevin, Ballee and Harryville, Ballycarry and Glynn, Ballykeel, Boneybefore, Braidwater, Broughshane, Burleigh Hill, Cairncastle, Carnlough and Glenarm, Castle, Castle Demesne, Craigyhill, Curran and Inver, Fair Green, Galgorm, Gardenmore, Glenwhirry, Greenisland, Islandmagee, Kells, Kilroot, Kilwaughter, Love Lane, Park, Slemish, Sunnylands, The Maidens, Victoria, Whitehead South, Woodburn

Belfast Central (70,510)
City of Belfast: Andersonstown, Belvoir, Blackstaff, Central, Cregagh, Duncairn, Dunmurry, Falls, Falls Park, Finaghy, Malone, Merok, Musgrave, New Lodge, Ormeau, Ravenhill, Rosetta, Stranmillis, Upper Malone, Windsor

Belfast East and Down North West (71,406)
City of Belfast: Ballymacarrett, Beersbridge, Belmont, Bloomfield, Connswater, Garnerville, Knock, Orangefield, Sandown, Sydenham, Woodstock
North Down and Ards: Ballyholme, Bryansburn, Clandeboye, Cultra, Harbour, Helen's Bay, Holywood, Kilcooley, Loughview, Rathgael, Rathmore, Silverstream

Belfast West (72,481)
City of Belfast: Ardoyne, Ballygomartin, Ballymurphy, Beechmount, Chichester Park, Cliftonville, Clonard, Collin, Glen, Forth River, Fortwilliam, Ladybrook, Lagmore, Poleglass, Shankill, Shaw's Road, Stewartstown, Turf Lodge, Twinbrook, Water Works, Woodvale

Down South and the Mourne Mountains(70,642)
City of Belfast: Gilnahirk, Hillfoot, Shandon, Stormont
Lisburn and Castlereagh: Ballyhanwood, Cairnshill, Carrowreagh, Carryduff East, Dundonald, Enler, Galwally, Graham's Bridge, Knockbracken, Moneyreagh, Newtownbreda
Newry, Mourne and Down: Ballynahinch, Cathedral, Crossgar and Killyleagh, Derryboy, Drumaness, Kilmore, Knocknashinna, Lecale, Quoile, Saintfield, Strangford
North Down and Ards: Ballygowan

Fermanagh (70,810)
Fermanagh and Omagh: Ballinamallard, Belcoo and Garrison, Belleek and Boa, Boho, Cleenish and Letterbreen, Brookeborough, Camowen, Castlecoole, Coolnagard, Dergmoney, Derrygonnelly, Derrylin, Donagh, Dromore, Drumquin, Ederney and Kesh, Erne, Fairy Water, Fintona, Florence Court and Kinawley, Gortin, Gortrush, Irvinestown, Killyclogher, Lisbellaw, Lisnarrick, Lisnaskea, Maguiresbridge, Newtownbutler, Portora, Rosslea, Rossorry, Strule, Tempo, Trillick
Mid Ulster: Fivemiletown

Lisburn (70,733)
Lisburn and Castlereagh: Ballinderry, Ballymacash, Ballymacbrennan, Ballymacoss, Beechill, Blaris, Carryduff West, Derryaghy, Dromara, Drumbo, Glenavy, Harmony Hill, Hilden, Hillhall, Hillsborough, Knockmore, Lagan, Lagan Valley, Lambeg, Lisnagarvey, Maghaberry, Magheralave, Maze, Moira, Old Warren, Ravernet, Stonyford, Wallace Park, White Mountain

Londonderry East and Limvady (72,657)
Causeway Coast and Glens: Aghadowey, Altahullion, Ballykelly, Castlerock, Churchland, Coolessan, Drumsurn, Dungiven, Feeny, Garvagh, Greysteel,
Greystone, Kilrea, Macosquin, Magilligan, Roeside, Waterside
Derry and Strabane: Caw, Claudy, Clondermot, Drumahoe, Ebrington, Eglinton, Enagh, Kilfennan, Lisnagelvin, New Buildings, Park, Victoria

(To be added to)

When are you going to finish this Harry?

[Harry Hayfield]

Sorry thought I had

Londonderry West and Tyrone North (72,120)
Derry and Strabane: ARTIGARVAN, BALLYCOLMAN, BALLYMAGROARTY, BRANDYWELL, CARN HILL, CASTLEDERG, CITY WALLS, CREGGAN, CREGGAN SOUTH, CULMORE, DUNNAMANAGH, FINN, FOYLE SPRINGS, GALLIAGH, GLENDERG, GLENELLY VALLEY, MADAM'S BANK, NEWTOWNSTEWART, NORTHLAND, SHANTALLOW, SHANTALLOW EAST, SHERIFF'S MOUNTAIN, SION MILLS, SKEOGE, SLIEVEKIRK, SPRINGTOWN, STRABANE NORTH, STRABANE WEST

Lough Neagh South and East (70,642)
Antrim and Newtownabbey: ABBEY, ALDERGROVE, BALLYDUFF, BALLYHENRY, BURNTHILL, CARNMONEY, CARNMONEY HILL, COLLINBRIDGE, CRUMLIN, FAIRVIEW, GLEBE, GLENGORMLEY, HIGHTOWN, MALLUSK, MONKSTOWN, MOSSLEY, O'NEILL, RATHCOOLE, ROSTULLA, TEMPLEPATRICK, VALLEY, WHITEHOUSE
Belfast: BALLYSILLAN, BELLEVUE, CAVEHILL, INNISFAYLE, LEGONIEL
Mid and East Antrim: GORTALEE

Lurgan, Craigavon and Newtownabbey (78,418)
Antrim and Newtownabbey: CLADY
Amaargh, Banbridge and Craigavon: AGHAGALLON, BALLYBAY, BLEARY, BROWNLOW, CORCRAIN, CRAIGAVON CENTRE, DERRYTRASNA, DONAGHCLONEY, DROMORE, GILFORD, KERNAN, KILLYCOMAIN, KNOCKNASHANE, LOUGH ROAD, MAGHERALIN, MAHON, MOURNEVIEW, PARKLAKE, QUILLY, SHANKILL, TANDRAGEE, THE BIRCHES, WARINGSTOWN

Maghrafelt and Antrim Town (70,768)
Antrim and Newtownabbey: ANTRIM CENTRE, BALLYCLARE EAST, BALLYCLARE WEST, BALLYNURE, BALLYROBERT, CRANFIELD, DOAGH, FOUNTAIN HILL, GREYSTONE, JORDANSTOWN, PARKGATE, RANDALSTOWN, SHILVODAN, SPRINGFARM, STEEPLE, STILES, TOOME
Mid Ulster: BALLYMAGUIGAN, BELLAGHY, CASTLEDAWSON, COOLSHINNY, GLEBE, MAGHERA, SWATRAGH, TAMLAGHT O'CRILLY, THE LOUP, TOBERMORE, TOWN PARKS EAST, VALLEY

Mid Ulster (72,910)
Fermanagh and Omagh: BERAGH, DRUMNAKILLY, NEWTOWNSAVILLE, OWENKILLEW, SIXMILECROSS, TERMON
Mid Ulster: ARDBOE, AUGHER AND CLOGHER, AUGHNACLOY, BALLYGAWLEY, BALLYSAGGART, CALEDON, CASTLECAULFIELD, COAGH, COALISLAND NORTH, COALISLAND SOUTH, COOKSTOWN EAST, COOKSTOWN SOUTH, COOKSTOWN WEST, DONAGHMORE, DRAPERSTOWN, KILLYMAN, KILLYMEAL, LISSAN, LOUGHRY, LOWER GLENSHANE, MOY, MOYGASHEL, MULLAGHMORE, OAKLANDS, POMEROY, STEWARTSTOWN, WASHING BAY

Newry and Tollymore (73,322)
Newry, Mourne and Down: ABBEY, ANNALONG, BALLYBOT, BALLYDUGAN, BALLYWARD, BESSBROOK, BINNIAN, BURREN, CASTLEWELLAN, DAMOLLY, DERRYLECKAGH, DONARD, DRUMALANE, DUNDRUM, FATHOM, HILLTOWN, KILKEEL, LISNACREE, MAYOBRIDGE, MURLOUGH, ROSTREVOR, ST. PATRICK'S, TOLLYMORE, WARRENPOINT, WHITECROSS

Newtownards: (76,571)
North Down and Ards: BALLYCROCHAN, BALLYGRAINEY, BALLYMAGEE, BALLYWALTER, BLOOMFIELD, BROADWAY, CARROWDORE, CASTLE, COMBER NORTH, COMBER SOUTH, COMBER WEST, CONWAY SQUARE, CRONSTOWN, DONAGHADEE, GLEN, GREGSTOWN, GROOMSPORT, KILLINCHY, KIRCUBBIN, LOUGHRIES, MOVILLA, PORTAFERRY, PORTAVOGIE, SCRABO, SILVERBIRCH, WARREN, WEST WINDS

[nitory]

Were you hired by the Boundary Commission to make their proposals seem reasonable?

[nitory]

Asquith perfectly summing up the review from over 100 years ago:

We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man – the County of Tyrone

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Oct 8, 2016 18:57:44 GMT nitory said:

Were you hired by the Boundary Commission to make their proposals seem reasonable? :P

It's even worse when you see his map

Mar 19, 2016 20:37:18 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Seventeen Northern Ireland constituencies (all of which are quorate)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

County Quotas

Antrim 5.60
Down 4.98
Armagh (with all of Newry) 1.80
Fermanagh 0.61
Tyrone 1.63
Londonderry 2.37

So the logical groupings (which the commision have utilised) are
Down 4.98/5 seats
Armagh, Tyrone, Fermanagh 4.04/4 seats
Londonderry, Antrim 7.97/8 seats

[Georg Ebner]

Wasn't Coleraine at some time part of Antrim? So why not calling "Dalriada" simply "North Antrim"? (And "Strangford" "East Down"?)

[Foggy]

Nov 5, 2016 2:54:25 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Wasn't Coleraine at some time part of Antrim? So why not calling "Dalriada" simply "North Antrim"? (And "Strangford" "East Down"?)

Not to mention that 'Dalriada' should contain parts of western Scotland, even though that is expressly forbidden by the review legislation.

Of course, it's also long past due for 'Foyle' to be be renamed Cathair Dhoire or 'City of Derry'. 

[greenhert]

Oct 26, 2016 0:13:20 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

County Quotas

Antrim 5.60
Down 4.98
Armagh (with all of Newry) 1.80
Fermanagh 0.61
Tyrone 1.63
Londonderry 2.37

So the logical groupings (which the commision have utilised) are
Down 4.98/5 seats
Armagh, Tyrone, Fermanagh 4.04/4 seats
Londonderry, Antrim 7.97/8 seats

Thank you for this-note that the city of Belfast can have 3 seats to itself and should be separate from the wider County Antrim area.

[boondock]

Looking at the assembly election results if they were replicated in a westminster election on the new boundaries we would have as follows:

Alliance 1
DUP 7
SF 9

If Hermon standS again then that would take 1 from DUP to independent.

Alliance 1
DUP 6
SF 9
Independent 1

In reality SDLP would probably hold onto Foyle and South Down as Alliance voters would switch back and there would be some unionist tactical voting also leaving us with a final result.

Alliance 1
SDLP 2
DUP 6
SF 7
Independent 1

North Belfast, FST, Glenshane and Upper Bann/Blackwater would come into play with Unionist unity candidates but even then I dont thinnk the numbers are there to defeat SF in any of those seats.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

If there was a general election, there would be some Unionist pacts, and even where not, unionist voters would align towards the candidate who could beat Sinn Féin - so it's a bit misleading.

[Harry Hayfield]

The calculations I have are:

DUP: Antrim East, Antrim South, Antrim West, Belfast East, Dalriada, Down North, Down West, Strangford (8)
SF: Belfast North West, Belfast South West, Down South, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Foyle, Glenshane, Newry and Armagh, Tyrone North, Upper Bann and Blackwater (9)

And when allowing for unionist pacts:

DUP: Antrim East, Antrim South, Antrim West, Belfast East, Dalriada, Down North, Down West, Glenshane (SF 41%, Unionist 44%), Strangford, Tyrone North (SF 37%, Unionist 51%) (10)
SF: Belfast North West, Belfast South West, Down South, Fermanagh and South Tyrone (SF 48%, Unionist 43%), Foyle, Newry and Armagh, Upper Bann and Blackwater (7)

[obsie]

Jun 29, 2017 9:24:59 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Tyrone North (SF 37%, Unionist 51%)

Eh?

[Harry Hayfield]

Jun 29, 2017 12:28:12 GMT obsie said:

Jun 29, 2017 9:24:59 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Tyrone North (SF 37%, Unionist 51%)

Eh?

Sorry, Upper Bann and Blackwater (no Tyrone North)

[obsie]

Jul 9, 2017 19:56:18 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Perhaps an arrangement along these lines would actually give the review a chance of passing through Parliament.

I make the seat distribution:
DUP 11 (+1)
SF 6 (-1)
Ind 0 (-1)

Ulster Unionists competitive in Fermanagh & South Tyrone so long as they have the backing of other unionist parties. Sinn Fein competitive in Belfast North.

It's far too obvious a DUP gerrymander to get past the Boundary Commissioners. And that's before we get onto monstrosities like sticking Larne into South Antrim or a Belfast North seat with no connection between its two halves (Holywood FFS?).

[obsie]

Jul 9, 2017 21:49:14 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Jul 9, 2017 21:26:23 GMT obsie said:

It's far too obvious a DUP gerrymander to get past the Boundary Commissioners. And that's before we get onto monstrosities like sticking Larne into South Antrim or a Belfast North seat with no connection between its two halves.

Well Lagan Bridge aside, I should have put Ballygomartin in Belfast South West, Ballymacarrett in Belfast North and Malone in Belfast South East, which would improve connectivity across the Belfast North constituency with three additional crossings over the Lagan.


1. Belfast North - 72,281
2. Belfast South West - 72,993
3. Belfast South East - 73,171

Antrim & Larne is a perfectly legitimate constituency: the two are well connected by road and are a fairly natural fit. The alternative would be to split the Carrickfergus-Newtonabbey urban area into two separate constituencies (the current arrangement, which I am no fan of). 

There are good transport links between Larne and Newtownabbey and between Larne and Carrickfergus; the A57 is a narrow country road. Trying to claim that there are links between Larne and, for example, Crumlin or Glenavy, and that it makes more sense to link Antrim town with Larne rather than with Randalstown and Toome would get you laughed out of court.

Having a cross-Lagan seat across the mouth of the river (with Holywood thrown in) is all too bizarre and has been rejected before (you've taken out the lower Newtownards road and left the two parts of the seat connected by Victoria Park and the airport, both bereft of inhabitants, and the Short Strand).

And that's before we get onto beauties like Dundonald and Lisburn or throwing Dungiven in with West Tyrone with which it has these kind of transport links.

[Tom]

I can't see the DUP agreeing to any of these proposals. There is no boundary change which will be better for them than the current ones.

[afleitch]

Why not just disenfranchise Catholics again. Nothing's too good for the DUP...