This is my first post. I've been looking at the proposals since them came out and stumbled across your forum. I've had a go at it. I'd be interested to hear what people think.
I think it's quite good, modulo that I think the BCNI's position is indeed that they're only supposed to make use of the extra flexibility available to them in the electorate range if they really have to. So I'd be looking at modifying it to get those four seats up to the lower limit for the rest of the UK. Glenshane can move a bit closer to Coleraine, and FST to Dungannon, I think in both cases without taking any of the actual towns; Antrim and Down might need a bit more work.
I'm surprised @doktorb hasn't commented on your names.
Antrim County (71,924) Causeway Coast and Glens: Atlantic, Ballycastle, Ballymoney East, Ballymoney North, Ballymoney South, Clogh Mills, Dervock, Dundooan, Dunloy, Giant's Causeway, Hopefield, Kinbane, Loughguile and Stranocum, Lurigethan, Mountsandel, Portrush and Dunluce, Portstewart, Quarry, Rasharkin, Route, Torr Head and Rathlin, University, Windy Hall Mid and East Antrim: Ahoghill, Cullybackey, Glenravel, Grange, Kirkinriola, Maine, Portglenone
Armagh County with Banbridge (75,806) Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon: Banbridge East, Banbridge North, Banbridge South, Banbridge West, Blackwatertown, Cathedral, Demesne, Gransha, Hamiltonsbawn, Keady, Loughbrickland, Loughgall, Markethill, Navan, Rathfriland, Richhill, Seagahan, The Mall Newry, Mourne and Down: Camlough, Crossmaglen, Forkhill, Mullaghbane, Newtownhamilton
Ballymena (77,437) Mid and East Antrim: Academy, Ardeevin, Ballee and Harryville, Ballycarry and Glynn, Ballykeel, Boneybefore, Braidwater, Broughshane, Burleigh Hill, Cairncastle, Carnlough and Glenarm, Castle, Castle Demesne, Craigyhill, Curran and Inver, Fair Green, Galgorm, Gardenmore, Glenwhirry, Greenisland, Islandmagee, Kells, Kilroot, Kilwaughter, Love Lane, Park, Slemish, Sunnylands, The Maidens, Victoria, Whitehead South, Woodburn
Belfast Central (70,510) City of Belfast: Andersonstown, Belvoir, Blackstaff, Central, Cregagh, Duncairn, Dunmurry, Falls, Falls Park, Finaghy, Malone, Merok, Musgrave, New Lodge, Ormeau, Ravenhill, Rosetta, Stranmillis, Upper Malone, Windsor
Belfast East and Down North West (71,406) City of Belfast: Ballymacarrett, Beersbridge, Belmont, Bloomfield, Connswater, Garnerville, Knock, Orangefield, Sandown, Sydenham, Woodstock North Down and Ards: Ballyholme, Bryansburn, Clandeboye, Cultra, Harbour, Helen's Bay, Holywood, Kilcooley, Loughview, Rathgael, Rathmore, Silverstream
Belfast West (72,481) City of Belfast: Ardoyne, Ballygomartin, Ballymurphy, Beechmount, Chichester Park, Cliftonville, Clonard, Collin, Glen, Forth River, Fortwilliam, Ladybrook, Lagmore, Poleglass, Shankill, Shaw's Road, Stewartstown, Turf Lodge, Twinbrook, Water Works, Woodvale
Down South and the Mourne Mountains(70,642) City of Belfast: Gilnahirk, Hillfoot, Shandon, Stormont Lisburn and Castlereagh: Ballyhanwood, Cairnshill, Carrowreagh, Carryduff East, Dundonald, Enler, Galwally, Graham's Bridge, Knockbracken, Moneyreagh, Newtownbreda Newry, Mourne and Down: Ballynahinch, Cathedral, Crossgar and Killyleagh, Derryboy, Drumaness, Kilmore, Knocknashinna, Lecale, Quoile, Saintfield, Strangford North Down and Ards: Ballygowan
Fermanagh (70,810) Fermanagh and Omagh: Ballinamallard, Belcoo and Garrison, Belleek and Boa, Boho, Cleenish and Letterbreen, Brookeborough, Camowen, Castlecoole, Coolnagard, Dergmoney, Derrygonnelly, Derrylin, Donagh, Dromore, Drumquin, Ederney and Kesh, Erne, Fairy Water, Fintona, Florence Court and Kinawley, Gortin, Gortrush, Irvinestown, Killyclogher, Lisbellaw, Lisnarrick, Lisnaskea, Maguiresbridge, Newtownbutler, Portora, Rosslea, Rossorry, Strule, Tempo, Trillick Mid Ulster: Fivemiletown
Lisburn (70,733) Lisburn and Castlereagh: Ballinderry, Ballymacash, Ballymacbrennan, Ballymacoss, Beechill, Blaris, Carryduff West, Derryaghy, Dromara, Drumbo, Glenavy, Harmony Hill, Hilden, Hillhall, Hillsborough, Knockmore, Lagan, Lagan Valley, Lambeg, Lisnagarvey, Maghaberry, Magheralave, Maze, Moira, Old Warren, Ravernet, Stonyford, Wallace Park, White Mountain
Londonderry East and Limvady (72,657) Causeway Coast and Glens: Aghadowey, Altahullion, Ballykelly, Castlerock, Churchland, Coolessan, Drumsurn, Dungiven, Feeny, Garvagh, Greysteel, Greystone, Kilrea, Macosquin, Magilligan, Roeside, Waterside Derry and Strabane: Caw, Claudy, Clondermot, Drumahoe, Ebrington, Eglinton, Enagh, Kilfennan, Lisnagelvin, New Buildings, Park, Victoria
Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 8, 2016 16:15:48 GMT
Sorry thought I had
Londonderry West and Tyrone North (72,120) Derry and Strabane: ARTIGARVAN, BALLYCOLMAN, BALLYMAGROARTY, BRANDYWELL, CARN HILL, CASTLEDERG, CITY WALLS, CREGGAN, CREGGAN SOUTH, CULMORE, DUNNAMANAGH, FINN, FOYLE SPRINGS, GALLIAGH, GLENDERG, GLENELLY VALLEY, MADAM'S BANK, NEWTOWNSTEWART, NORTHLAND, SHANTALLOW, SHANTALLOW EAST, SHERIFF'S MOUNTAIN, SION MILLS, SKEOGE, SLIEVEKIRK, SPRINGTOWN, STRABANE NORTH, STRABANE WEST
Lough Neagh South and East (70,642) Antrim and Newtownabbey: ABBEY, ALDERGROVE, BALLYDUFF, BALLYHENRY, BURNTHILL, CARNMONEY, CARNMONEY HILL, COLLINBRIDGE, CRUMLIN, FAIRVIEW, GLEBE, GLENGORMLEY, HIGHTOWN, MALLUSK, MONKSTOWN, MOSSLEY, O'NEILL, RATHCOOLE, ROSTULLA, TEMPLEPATRICK, VALLEY, WHITEHOUSE Belfast: BALLYSILLAN, BELLEVUE, CAVEHILL, INNISFAYLE, LEGONIEL Mid and East Antrim: GORTALEE
Lurgan, Craigavon and Newtownabbey (78,418) Antrim and Newtownabbey: CLADY Amaargh, Banbridge and Craigavon: AGHAGALLON, BALLYBAY, BLEARY, BROWNLOW, CORCRAIN, CRAIGAVON CENTRE, DERRYTRASNA, DONAGHCLONEY, DROMORE, GILFORD, KERNAN, KILLYCOMAIN, KNOCKNASHANE, LOUGH ROAD, MAGHERALIN, MAHON, MOURNEVIEW, PARKLAKE, QUILLY, SHANKILL, TANDRAGEE, THE BIRCHES, WARINGSTOWN
Maghrafelt and Antrim Town (70,768) Antrim and Newtownabbey: ANTRIM CENTRE, BALLYCLARE EAST, BALLYCLARE WEST, BALLYNURE, BALLYROBERT, CRANFIELD, DOAGH, FOUNTAIN HILL, GREYSTONE, JORDANSTOWN, PARKGATE, RANDALSTOWN, SHILVODAN, SPRINGFARM, STEEPLE, STILES, TOOME Mid Ulster: BALLYMAGUIGAN, BELLAGHY, CASTLEDAWSON, COOLSHINNY, GLEBE, MAGHERA, SWATRAGH, TAMLAGHT O'CRILLY, THE LOUP, TOBERMORE, TOWN PARKS EAST, VALLEY
Post by Harry Hayfield on Jun 29, 2017 9:24:59 GMT
The calculations I have are:
DUP: Antrim East, Antrim South, Antrim West, Belfast East, Dalriada, Down North, Down West, Strangford (8) SF: Belfast North West, Belfast South West, Down South, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Foyle, Glenshane, Newry and Armagh, Tyrone North, Upper Bann and Blackwater (9)
And when allowing for unionist pacts:
DUP: Antrim East, Antrim South, Antrim West, Belfast East, Dalriada, Down North, Down West, Glenshane (SF 41%, Unionist 44%), Strangford, Tyrone North (SF 37%, Unionist 51%) (10) SF: Belfast North West, Belfast South West, Down South, Fermanagh and South Tyrone (SF 48%, Unionist 43%), Foyle, Newry and Armagh, Upper Bann and Blackwater (7)
Former member of Llansantffraed Community Council (2012 - 2017)
Perhaps an arrangement along these lines would actually give the review a chance of passing through Parliament.
I make the seat distribution: DUP 11 (+1) SF 6 (-1) Ind 0 (-1)
Ulster Unionists competitive in Fermanagh & South Tyrone so long as they have the backing of other unionist parties. Sinn Fein competitive in Belfast North.
It's far too obvious a DUP gerrymander to get past the Boundary Commissioners. And that's before we get onto monstrosities like sticking Larne into South Antrim or a Belfast North seat with no connection between its two halves (Holywood FFS?).
It's far too obvious a DUP gerrymander to get past the Boundary Commissioners. And that's before we get onto monstrosities like sticking Larne into South Antrim or a Belfast North seat with no connection between its two halves.
Well Lagan Bridge aside, I should have put Ballygomartin in Belfast South West, Ballymacarrett in Belfast North and Malone in Belfast South East, which would improve connectivity across the Belfast North constituency with three additional crossings over the Lagan.
1. Belfast North - 72,281 2. Belfast South West - 72,993 3. Belfast South East - 73,171
Antrim & Larne is a perfectly legitimate constituency: the two are well connected by road and are a fairly natural fit. The alternative would be to split the Carrickfergus-Newtonabbey urban area into two separate constituencies (the current arrangement, which I am no fan of).
There are good transport links between Larne and Newtownabbey and between Larne and Carrickfergus; the A57 is a narrow country road. Trying to claim that there are links between Larne and, for example, Crumlin or Glenavy, and that it makes more sense to link Antrim town with Larne rather than with Randalstown and Toome would get you laughed out of court.
Having a cross-Lagan seat across the mouth of the river (with Holywood thrown in) is all too bizarre and has been rejected before (you've taken out the lower Newtownards road and left the two parts of the seat connected by Victoria Park and the airport, both bereft of inhabitants, and the Short Strand).
And that's before we get onto beauties like Dundonald and Lisburn or throwing Dungiven in with West Tyrone with which it has these kind of transport links.