YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Mar 20, 2016 9:45:24 GMT
Anyway, here's my attempt which keeps a 4 seat Belfast, including Holywood:  Belfast zoom:  Starting in Belfast, and then roughly going in a clockwise spiral: Belfast North 72,777 Belfast West 72,453 Belfast South 75,049 Belfast East & Holywood 72,196 North Down 73,873 Mid Down 73,188 South Down 74,040 Newry & Armagh 75,389 Fermanagh & South Tyrone 71,038 Mid Ulster 73,582 West Tyrone 73,420 * Derry Foyle 71,398 Causeway Coast 71,986 Mid Antrim 71,792 East Antrim 72,890 Lisburn & South Antrim 71,846 Upper Bann 76,472 * probably ought to be renamed as it extends into County Londonderry. There are of course some rough edges. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 20, 2016 13:45:32 GMT
You appear to have segregated Derry and Londonderry. Yes, that is indeed correct. And if you are looking for a reason why, that reason is "The Boundary Commission have been told to make 17 Northern Ireland seats with an electorate within 7.5% of the electoral quota. Therefore things such as "religious sympathies" have to be ditched. Besides, with the DUP and SF working in a coalition at the Assembly surely these things are a thing of the past!" Why was the quota set at 7.5% for Northern Ireland constituencies but only at 5% for other UK constituencies? Given the size of Northern Irish electoral wards compared to the size of UK wards especially in cities, this hardly seems reasonable at all. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 20, 2016 17:06:54 GMT
My proposed Northern Irish constituencies.
1. Fermanagh & South Tyrone. Minor adjustments to adapt to new ward boundaries only; otherwise unchanged. Electorate: 71,038.
2. Central Tyrone. The Fermanagh and Omagh wards of Trillick, Fintona, Dromore, Drumquin, Fairy Water, Beragh, Newtownsaville, Sixmilecross, Termon, Owenkillew, Gortin, Drummakilly, Camowen, Killycogher, Strule, Gortrus, Dergmoney and Coolnagard, plus the Mid Ulster wards of Cookstown East/South/West, Coalisland North/South, Draperstown, Oaklands, Lissan, Coagh, The Loup, Ardloe, Stewartstown, Pomeroy, Washing Bay, Donaghmore and Loughry. Main towns are Omagh and Cookstown. Electorate: 73,137.
3. Foyle. As the current Foyle constituency (with adjustments for new ward boundaries) plus the Derry & Strabane ward of Claudy. Electorate: 73,934.
4. Glenshane Pass. The Derry & Strabane wards of Glenderg, Castlederg, Finn, Sion Mills, Glenelly Valley, Strabane North/West, Newtownstewart, Ballycolman, Artigarvan, Dunnamanagh, and Park, plus the Causeway Coast & Glens wards of Feeny, Altahullion, Ballykelly, Greysteel, Roeside, Greystone, Coolessan, and Dungiven, plus the Mid Ulster wards of Lower Glenshane, Swatragh, Tamlaght O'Crilly, Valley, Bellaghy, Tobermore, Castledawson, Ballymaguigan, Coolshinny, Town Parks East, and Glebe. Main towns are Magherafelt, Strabane, and Linnavady. Mostly in County Londonderry but also including northwest Tyrone. Electorate: 77,758.
5. Coleraine & North Antrim. All Causeway Coast & Glens wards not in Glenshane Pass. Main towns are Coleraine and Ballymoney. Electorate: 77,687.
6. Belfast North. The Belfast wards of Bellevue, Duncairn, Falls, Innisfayle, Cavehill, Legoniel, Chichester Park, Bannysillian, Water Works, Fortwilliam, Cliftonville, Ardoyne, Forth River, New Lodge, Shankill, Woodvale, Ballygomartin, Sydenham, Belmont, and Garnerville. Electorate: 70,021.
7. Belfast South West. The Belfast wards of Collin Glen, Poleglass, Lagmore, Twinbrook, Dunmurry, Finaghy, Stewartstown, Shaw's Road, Ladybrook, Turf Lodge, Falls Park, Ballymurphy, Andersonstown, Musgrave, Malone, Upper Malone, Blackstaff, Beachmount, Clonard, and Windsor. Electorate: 72,631.
8. Belfast South East. The Belfast wards of Belvoir, Stranmillis, Rosetta, Central, Ormaeu, Ravenhill, Creagagh, Woodstock, Beersbridge, Orangefield, Bloomfield, Merok, Hillfoot, Sandown, Shildon, Gilnahirk, Stormont, Knock, Connswater, and Ballymacarrett. Electorate: 69,830.
9. Mid Antrim. All Mid & East Antrim wards except for Woodburn, Greenisland, Burleigh Hill, Sunnylands, Castle, Love Lane, Victoria, and Boneybefore. Electorate: 73,889.
10. Newtonabbey & Carrickfergus. The Mid & East Antrim wards of Woodburn, Greenisland, Burleigh Hill, Sunnylands, Castle, Love Lane, Victoria, and Boneybefore, plus the Newtonabbey & Antrim wards of Ballynure, Collinbridge, Glengormley, Hightown, Burnthill, Ballyhenry, Mossley, Jordanstown, Rostulla, Abbey, Whitehouse, Ballyrobert, Ballyclare East/West, O'Neill, Valley, Carmmoney Hill, Glebe, Carmmoney, Fairview, Ballyduff, Monkstown, Rathcoole, and Gortalee. Electorate: 75,407.
11. Antrim & Lisburn. All Antrim & Newtonabbey wards not included in Newtonabbey & Carrickergus, plus the Lisburn & Castlereagh wards of Stonyford, White Mountain, Derryaghy, Magheralave, Lambeg, Hilden, Harmony Hill, Wallace Park, Ballymacash, Knockmore, Ballymacass, Lisnagarvey, Lagan Valley, and Old Warren. Electorate: 76,167.
12. North Down. The current North Down constituency (adjusted for new ward boundaries) plus the wards of Loughries, Callowdore, and Ballywater. Electorate: 71,359.
13. Dundonald Valley. All Lisburn & Castlereagh wards not included in Antrim & Lisburn plus the Armagh, Bainbridge & Craigavon wards of Gransha, Dromore, and Quilley (which are part of the current Lagan Valley constituency). Electorate: 71,206.
14. Craigavon. The Armagh, Bainbridge & Craigavon wards of Aghagallon, Derrytrasna, Lough Road, Parklake, Shankill, Mournview, Knocknashane, Magheralin, Brownlow, Craigavon Centre, Ballybay, Corcrain, Killycommain, Kerran, Waringstown, Donaghcloney, Bleary, Mahon, Gilford, The Birches, Tandagree, and Loughall. Similar to the current Upper Bann but now entirely in County Armagh hence the name change. Electorate: 73,471.
15. Newry & Armagh. As the current Newry & Armagh constituency (adjusted for new ward boundaries) minus the wards of Tandagree and Loughall. Electorate: 71,959.
16. South Down. The Armagh, Bainbridge & Craigavon wards of Bainbridge East/North/South/West, Loughbrickland, and Rathfriland, plus the Newry, Mourne & Down wards of Hilltown, Mayobridge, Derryleckagh, Burren, Warrenpoint, Rostrevor, Lisnacree, Binnian, Kilkeel, Annalong, Donard, Tollymore, Castlewellan, Ballyward, Dundrum, Murlough, Drumaness, and Ballynahinch. Electorate: 73,287.
17. Strangford. All North Down & Ards wards not included in North Down (this includes the town of Newtonards) and all Newry, Mourne & Down wards not included in Bainbridge & South Down (including the town of Downpatrick); the eponymous Strangford town is now actually in the constituency. Electorate: 70,492.
The major reorganisation of Northern Irish local government for the 2014 elections there has in many of the above cases forced complete redrawings of constituencies. The disappearing constituencies are Belfast South, Belfast East, South Antrim, Mid Ulster, and West Tyrone.
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nitory
Conservative
Posts: 941 
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Post by nitory on Mar 20, 2016 17:57:52 GMT
  Quite happy with this attempt to rearrange the west to avoid a spawling Coalisland to Limavady Mid Ulster. the Strabane- Limavady - Magherafelt creation is not ideal but not an atrocity either. F - ST: Elliot loses as 2 heavily nationalist Coalisland wards are added. Sinn Fein gain. Mid Tyrone: Doherty will probably run here. Safe Sinn Fein. Strabane and West Londonderry(?): Molloy runs here. Safe Sinn Fein . North Antrim and Coleraine: Campbell's nightmare of Glenshane are a thing of the past with this. Safe DUP. South West Antrim: Kinahan's constituency is split in two, Antrim part being added to Ballymena. Paisley Jnr will run there and should be Safe DUP barring a scandal. South East Antrim: Wilson should be safe here, adding Ballyclare helps the UUP some, but not enough. Safe DUP. North Belfast: Loses the Shankill wards but gains most of southern Newtownabbey. Safe DUP. West Belfast: Now has all of the Shankill wards, not that it makes much difference. Safe Sinn Fein. South Belfast: The addition of Castlereagh hinterlands makes this even closer between the DUP and SDLP, Guessing very narrowly DUP in 2015. SDLP - DUP Toss up. East Belfast: Gains 3 Holywood wards which would make 2015 closer, but still think DUP would have won here. DUP - Alliance Toss up. North Down: Sylvia Herman will be safe here until she retires. Adding the peninsula favours the DUP for a gain though once she goes. Safe Ind. Strangford: Expands south to take in Downpatrick along with the town the constituency is named after. Still Safe DUP though. Lagan Valley: loses Dromore and gains 2 wards from S Antrim. Safe DUP. Lurgan and Banbridge: DUP - UUP - Sinn Fein marginal. DUP would have just been ahead of the UUP in 2015 Armagh and Portadown: Another DUP - UUP - Sinn Fein marginal with the SDLP in a strong fourth. UUP would have won 2015. Newry and Mourne: Essentially all of the old Council of the same name. The eastern half is SDLP territory, but not enough to overcome Sinn Fein's dominance in Newry and the west. Likely Sinn Fein. Version 2 - the South East re-arranged. I realised the above proposal made a mess out of the Craigavon area which is probably due to my bias in believing Banbridge should be with Lurgan. Newcastle, Kilkeel and Warrenpoint are places to go on a Summer day out and there's no ties to Banbridge, which is more connected to Craigavon (or even Newry). But it makes sense aesthetically and Banbridge was previously in South Down before 1983. Mainly though a reduced Upper Bann which adds Tandragee makes the most sense. Upper Bann: Simpson is safer here losing UUP leaning Banbridge. Lean DUP South Down: Probably a Unionist pact UUP candidate against the SDLP. Newry and Armagh: Minimal changes. Safe Sinn Fein.  |
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