iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,455 
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Post by iain on Sept 9, 2016 8:30:44 GMT
'MIN' is just the highest scoring party without its own column. So for East Antrim APNI are MIN and TUV are OTH, but it is reversed in North Antrim.
A stupid system. Why is there a whole column for the Greens (and to a lesser extent UKIP) but not for APNI
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 9, 2016 9:02:41 GMT
'MIN' is just the highest scoring party without its own column. So for East Antrim APNI are MIN and TUV are OTH, but it is reversed in North Antrim. A stupid system. Why is there a whole column for the Greens (and to a lesser extent UKIP) but not for APNI Because electoral calculus is hopeless |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 9, 2016 9:10:20 GMT
Don't electoralcalculus just assume that the party has the same vote share spread evenly through a constituency, when they do notional figures?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2016 9:19:06 GMT
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 9, 2016 9:52:47 GMT
I decided to apply that data (such as it is) to Stormont, assuming a reasonably sectarian transfer pattern. To be honest, this is so full of caveats that it isn't really worth posting, but I might as well establish myself as NewZealandSwingVoter.
Caveats include: all this is Westminster as opposed to Stormont except for aspects of North Down, FST, Dalriada, Glenshane and Belfast SW. As a general rule, this will overstate UUP compared to DUP due to the Unionist pacts in effect in various constituencies. It might also overestimate SDLP compared to PBP and Greens. I'm happy to receive corrections, scepticism, etc.
Dalriada - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV
Antrim East - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
Antrim West - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
Antrim South - 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
Belfast NW - 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 Alliance
Belfast SW - 1 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 PBP
Belfast East - 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 SF
North Down - 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green
Strangford - 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
West Down - 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP
South Down - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP
Newry and Armagh - 2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP
Upper Bann and Blackwater - 2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 DUP
Fermanagh and South Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP
North Tyrone - 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP
Foyle - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP
Glenshane - 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 Ind Unionist
TOTAL:
DUP - 25 (-13)
SF - 22 (-6)
UUP - 14 (-2)
SDLP - 11 (-1)
Alliance - 9 (+1)
TUV - 1 (-)
Green - 1 (-1)
PBP - 1 (-1)
Ind Unionist - 1 (-)
Those 13 lost DUP seats look very suspicious, even taking into account the reduction in seats across the board.
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 9, 2016 10:05:59 GMT
I decided to apply that data (such as it is) to Stormont, assuming a reasonably sectarian transfer pattern. To be honest, this is so full of caveats that it isn't really worth posting, but I might as well establish myself as NewZealandSwingVoter. Caveats include: all this is Westminster as opposed to Stormont except for aspects of North Down, FST, Dalriada, Glenshane and Belfast SW. As a general rule, this will overstate UUP compared to DUP due to the Unionist pacts in effect in various constituencies. It might also overestimate SDLP compared to PBP and Greens. I'm happy to receive corrections, scepticism, etc. Dalriada - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV Antrim East - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Antrim West - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Antrim South - 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Belfast NW - 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 Alliance Belfast SW - 1 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 PBP Belfast East - 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 SF North Down - 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green Strangford - 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance West Down - 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP South Down - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP Newry and Armagh - 2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP Upper Bann and Blackwater - 2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 DUP Fermanagh and South Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP North Tyrone - 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP Foyle - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP Glenshane - 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 Ind Unionist TOTAL: DUP - 25 (-13) SF - 22 (-6) UUP - 14 (-2) SDLP - 11 (-1) Alliance - 9 (+1) TUV - 1 (-) Green - 1 (-1) PBP - 1 (-1) Ind Unionist - 1 (-) Those 13 lost DUP seats look very suspicious, even taking into account the reduction in seats across the board. You beat me to it |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Sept 9, 2016 10:34:24 GMT
I decided to apply that data (such as it is) to Stormont, assuming a reasonably sectarian transfer pattern. To be honest, this is so full of caveats that it isn't really worth posting, but I might as well establish myself as NewZealandSwingVoter. Caveats include: all this is Westminster as opposed to Stormont except for aspects of North Down, FST, Dalriada, Glenshane and Belfast SW. As a general rule, this will overstate UUP compared to DUP due to the Unionist pacts in effect in various constituencies. It might also overestimate SDLP compared to PBP and Greens. I'm happy to receive corrections, scepticism, etc. Dalriada - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV Antrim East - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Antrim West - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Antrim South - 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Belfast NW - 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 Alliance Belfast SW - 1 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 PBP Belfast East - 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 SF North Down - 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green Strangford - 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance West Down - 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP South Down - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP Newry and Armagh - 2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP Upper Bann and Blackwater - 2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 DUP Fermanagh and South Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP North Tyrone - 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP Foyle - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP Glenshane - 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 Ind Unionist TOTAL: DUP - 25 (-13) SF - 22 (-6) UUP - 14 (-2) SDLP - 11 (-1) Alliance - 9 (+1) TUV - 1 (-) Green - 1 (-1) PBP - 1 (-1) Ind Unionist - 1 (-) Those 13 lost DUP seats look very suspicious, even taking into account the reduction in seats across the board. I don't think your estimates quite exagerate the Nationalist Advantage My Assessment Dalriada - 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV, 2 DUP Antrim East - 1 SF, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Antrim West - 1 SF, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Antrim South - 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Belfast NW - 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 DUP Belfast SW - 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 PBP, 1 Alliance, 1 DUP Belfast East - 1 Green, 2 Alliance, 2 DUP North Down - 1 Green, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Strangford - 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP West Down - 1 SF, 1 Alliance 1 UUP, 2 DUP South Down - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP Newry and Armagh - 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP Upper Bann and Blackwater - 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 DUP Fermanagh and South Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 UUP, 1 DUP North Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP Foyle - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 PBP Glenshane - 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 2 DUP TOTAL: SF - 24 (-4) DUP - 23 (-15) SDLP - 13 (+1) Alliance - 10 (+2) UUP - 9 (-7) TUV - 1 (-) Green - 2 (-) PBP - 2 (-) Ind Unionist - 0 (-1) |
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Post by greatkingrat on Sept 9, 2016 10:39:04 GMT
The problem with Northern Ireland notionals is that there are no local election figures available by ward, only by DEA. So Electoral Calculus is assuming the votes are evenly distributed across the area, which in some places will be very far from the truth.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 9, 2016 18:48:35 GMT
(copied from elsewhere) my first attempt reworking of the Northern Ireland proposals. Based on the assumptions that a) putting Lisburn (back) in with County Antrim is fucking dumb b) crossing the Blackwater is undesirable and instead of those, you can keep Lagan Valley and Upper Bann more or less intact c) Belfast* and coastal Down can mostly stay d) knock-on changes elsewhere are massive and e) the commission's decision not to use its extra leeway is wrong but won't be dislodged easily, so I played by their rules in that regard. *two Newtownabbey wards moved out, Central moved to NW, two wards to the southwest moved in  I'm not happy with Antrim (wtf does that Larne, Glens and Random Points Nearby seat think it's doing?) although Newtownabbey & Carrickfergus is right imho. Some territory on the edges of Lisburn still needed to be transferred north for population balance reasons. 
Not removing Banbridge from Upper Bann forces this very motheaten look. It is currently too large after all. Probaby the only workable alternative (having rejected the "West Down" hilarity) is to move Banbridge into South Down (eh... don't the Commissioners seem to have a fetish about the old counties?) forcing knock-on changes. The sectarian consequences of this are presumably not pretty. OTOH this second version looks much better and respects local government boundaries more (except for Saintfield orphan ward. Guilty as charged.) Besides, I'm unhappy with the way West Tyrone edged into County Derry (needs a new name at least). Since I didn't want it to go to just the edges of Cookstown the only thing for it was a radical east-west split. Again this is actually better with local government boundaries.  |
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Post by gamblingguru on Sept 9, 2016 21:58:11 GMT
I decided to apply that data (such as it is) to Stormont, assuming a reasonably sectarian transfer pattern. To be honest, this is so full of caveats that it isn't really worth posting, but I might as well establish myself as NewZealandSwingVoter. Caveats include: all this is Westminster as opposed to Stormont except for aspects of North Down, FST, Dalriada, Glenshane and Belfast SW. As a general rule, this will overstate UUP compared to DUP due to the Unionist pacts in effect in various constituencies. It might also overestimate SDLP compared to PBP and Greens. I'm happy to receive corrections, scepticism, etc. Dalriada - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV Antrim East - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Antrim West - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Antrim South - 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Belfast NW - 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 Alliance Belfast SW - 1 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 PBP Belfast East - 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 SF North Down - 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green Strangford - 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance West Down - 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP South Down - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP Newry and Armagh - 2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP Upper Bann and Blackwater - 2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 DUP Fermanagh and South Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP North Tyrone - 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP Foyle - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP Glenshane - 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 Ind Unionist TOTAL: DUP - 25 (-13) SF - 22 (-6) UUP - 14 (-2) SDLP - 11 (-1) Alliance - 9 (+1) TUV - 1 (-) Green - 1 (-1) PBP - 1 (-1) Ind Unionist - 1 (-) Those 13 lost DUP seats look very suspicious, even taking into account the reduction in seats across the board. I don't think your estimates quite exagerate the Nationalist Advantage My Assessment Dalriada - 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV, 2 DUP Antrim East - 1 SF, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Antrim West - 1 SF, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Antrim South - 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Belfast NW - 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 DUP Belfast SW - 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 PBP, 1 Alliance, 1 DUP Belfast East - 1 Green, 2 Alliance, 2 DUP North Down - 1 Green, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Strangford - 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP West Down - 1 SF, 1 Alliance 1 UUP, 2 DUP South Down - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP Newry and Armagh - 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP Upper Bann and Blackwater - 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 DUP Fermanagh and South Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 UUP, 1 DUP North Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP Foyle - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 PBP Glenshane - 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 2 DUP TOTAL: SF - 24 (-4) DUP - 23 (-15) SDLP - 13 (+1) Alliance - 10 (+2) UUP - 9 (-7) TUV - 1 (-) Green - 2 (-) PBP - 2 (-) Ind Unionist - 0 (-1) The electoral calculus site doesn't calculate well at ward level.(putting it mildly) I think they must just average the votes out over a large no of wards. I just had a look at their site and they have a strong Unionist majority in Dunloy and DUP running neck and neck with SF in Dungiven. |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 9, 2016 22:08:02 GMT
I decided to apply that data (such as it is) to Stormont, assuming a reasonably sectarian transfer pattern. To be honest, this is so full of caveats that it isn't really worth posting, but I might as well establish myself as NewZealandSwingVoter. Caveats include: all this is Westminster as opposed to Stormont except for aspects of North Down, FST, Dalriada, Glenshane and Belfast SW. As a general rule, this will overstate UUP compared to DUP due to the Unionist pacts in effect in various constituencies. It might also overestimate SDLP compared to PBP and Greens. I'm happy to receive corrections, scepticism, etc. Dalriada - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV Antrim East - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Antrim West - 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Antrim South - 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance Belfast NW - 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 Alliance Belfast SW - 1 DUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 PBP Belfast East - 2 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 SF North Down - 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green Strangford - 2 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance West Down - 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP South Down - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 UUP Newry and Armagh - 2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 SDLP Upper Bann and Blackwater - 2 SF, 2 UUP, 1 DUP Fermanagh and South Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP North Tyrone - 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP Foyle - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP Glenshane - 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 Ind Unionist TOTAL: DUP - 25 (-13) SF - 22 (-6) UUP - 14 (-2) SDLP - 11 (-1) Alliance - 9 (+1) TUV - 1 (-) Green - 1 (-1) PBP - 1 (-1) Ind Unionist - 1 (-) Those 13 lost DUP seats look very suspicious, even taking into account the reduction in seats across the board. I don't think your estimates quite exagerate the Nationalist Advantage My Assessment Dalriada - 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 TUV, 2 DUP Antrim East - 1 SF, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Antrim West - 1 SF, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Antrim South - 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Belfast NW - 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 DUP Belfast SW - 1 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 PBP, 1 Alliance, 1 DUP Belfast East - 1 Green, 2 Alliance, 2 DUP North Down - 1 Green, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP Strangford - 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 2 DUP West Down - 1 SF, 1 Alliance 1 UUP, 2 DUP South Down - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 DUP Newry and Armagh - 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP Upper Bann and Blackwater - 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP, 1 DUP Fermanagh and South Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 UUP, 1 DUP North Tyrone - 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP Foyle - 2 SF, 2 SDLP, 1 PBP Glenshane - 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 2 DUP TOTAL: SF - 24 (-4) DUP - 23 (-15) SDLP - 13 (+1) Alliance - 10 (+2) UUP - 9 (-7) TUV - 1 (-) Green - 2 (-) PBP - 2 (-) Ind Unionist - 0 (-1) OK. The thing that immediately jumps out at me is that I genuinely don't know how you translate 37% of the vote in Belfast NW into one seat for DUP. That's well over two quotas. Some of the other places where we differ are arguable either way - for instance, I think there is almost certainly a Unionist quota in Foyle and probably two in Newry and Armagh - but I can see where you're coming from. |
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Post by lancastrian on Sept 10, 2016 0:36:57 GMT
I just had a look at their site and they have a strong Unionist majority in Dunloy and DUP running neck and neck with SF in Dungiven. To really set this out for those of us outside Northern Ireland. From Electoral Calculus Falls: DUP 591 SF. 448 It's in the same majority unionist DEA as Shankill. |
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Post by gamblingguru on Sept 10, 2016 8:12:58 GMT
I just had a look at their site and they have a strong Unionist majority in Dunloy and DUP running neck and neck with SF in Dungiven. To really set this out for those of us outside Northern Ireland. From Electoral Calculus Falls: DUP 591 SF. 448 It's in the same majority unionist DEA as Shankill. I think you're right - they use the DEA votes or votes from a constituency and assume all wards in the area are the same. Although how Belfast NW has Alliance at 12.5% I cant work out... It's basically made up of 3 full DEAS where Alliance scored 1% 3% and 9%. Probably best to not look at it and just ignore! |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 10, 2016 9:05:48 GMT
What exactly is the legal significance of Northern Irish wards anyways? I'm just happy we don't see districts drawn with DEA's as the sole building blocks...
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Post by islington on Sept 10, 2016 14:35:55 GMT
What exactly is the legal significance of Northern Irish wards anyways? I'm just happy we don't see districts drawn with DEA's as the sole building blocks... Yes, I've been curious about this. Can anyone advise? Looking at Minion's two plans just upthread - I agree in preferring the second one overall, but I like the look of the W Tyrone and Mid Ulster seats from Plan A. Minion, would you consider merging the two schemes in this way? (And you could call the W Tyrone seat 'Omagh and Strabane'.) |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Sept 10, 2016 17:59:15 GMT
What exactly is the legal significance of Northern Irish wards anyways? I'm just happy we don't see districts drawn with DEA's as the sole building blocks... If I'm not wrong, that's due to how elections were devolved. NI is drawing wards, but London creates the DEAs from those wards. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Sept 10, 2016 20:55:32 GMT
What exactly is the legal significance of Northern Irish wards anyways? I'm just happy we don't see districts drawn with DEA's as the sole building blocks... Yes, I've been curious about this. Can anyone advise? When the Macrory Commission proposed to improve/streamline Northern Ireland local government in the early 70s, the original idea was to draw single-seat (non-gerrymandered) wards to which elections would be held under FPTP. The pressure of reality meant that the original plan was scrapped - although not before a set of single-member wards had been drawn) and that STV was reintroduced for local government and Stormont elections, with the wards being combined into DEAs with between 4 and 7 seats. The wards don't have any significance in themselves but they act as building-blocks for the DEAs, much like Electoral Divisions on the other side of the border. However, largely unlike on the other side of the border, they get periodicially redrawn to equalize their size (the periods could be quite long, though - before the general redrawing with the restructuring of councils, the previous redrawing had been in 1992). Like EDs in the south, their main practical use is as census reporting units, where they get subdivided into smaller reporting units (Small Areas/Output Areas). |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Sept 10, 2016 21:54:27 GMT
What exactly is the legal significance of Northern Irish wards anyways? I'm just happy we don't see districts drawn with DEA's as the sole building blocks... If I'm not wrong, that's due to how elections were devolved. NI is drawing wards, but London creates the DEAs from those wards. There are two separate stages in the redrawing of local government boundaries - firstly the definition of the ward boundaries, and secondly their grouping into DEAs. Both are done by boundary commissions. |
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Post by therealriga on Sept 11, 2016 9:11:45 GMT
Yes, I've been curious about this. Can anyone advise? When the Macrory Commission proposed to improve/streamline Northern Ireland local government in the early 70s, the original idea was to draw single-seat (non-gerrymandered) wards to which elections would be held under FPTP. The pressure of reality meant that the original plan was scrapped - although not before a set of single-member wards had been drawn) and that STV was reintroduced for local government and Stormont elections, with the wards being combined into DEAs with between 4 and 7 seats. They had 8-seaters too! Four of them (Dundonald, Dromore, Giant's causeway and Bushvale in Ballymoney.) Other than that you're spot on.
The wards are pointless, they did it that way first time round, as it was quicker to draw DEAs using wards already drawn. But ever since no one seems to have bothered to question this unnecessary intermediate step. Why not just have small census output areas, based on natural communities and then chain them together to make DEAs and allocate number of councillors proportionally? The census output areas could just stay unchanged, unless there's major housing development.
The need to draw wards of roughly equal electorate inevitably results in a few weirdly drawn wards. One example is Waterworks ward in Belfast. Until 2014, it was logical enough, containing nationalist micro areas in the Lower Antrim, Cliftonville and Cavehill roads. But for 2014, they added the loyalist area north of the Crumlin road, most of which is separated from the rest of Waterworks ward by peacelines. This latter area has little or no community links with the rest of the ward and, pre-2014, was linked, logically enough, with the Shankill.
Badly drawn wards inevitably results in badly drawn DEAs. Now the "North Crumlin" area is in Waterworks, that moves it to Oldpark DEA, even though it should be in Court DEA.
They seriously need to rethink this.
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Post by islington on Sept 11, 2016 14:30:29 GMT
Thanks to Obsie and Therealriga for clarifying this.
Whatever the shortcomings of this system, it strikes me that boundaries in Scotland would be a lot easier to draw if a similar arrangement existed there.
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