2018 Review - East of England

[Foggy]

Jun 23, 2016 2:06:20 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

Hertfordshire Minimum Change

Hertfordshire Minimum Change


Hertfordshire Radical

Hertfordshire Radical

Whenever there is a choice to be made between little change and a great chance to sort out some of the current unsatisfactory arrangements, I do so wish the legislation had nudged the Commission more towards the more radical option, just for this review (given the new rules and overall reduction in number of seats).

My plan for Hertfordshire is perhaps too radical, containing as it does a 'Hitchin and Stortford' seat and a cross-border seat with Cambridgeshire, which both probably belong in the 'Pitchfork Bait' thread rather than here.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Huntingdonshire, Cambridgeshire & Norfolk

South Cambridgeshire 76583
Cambridge 77515
East Cambridgeshire 77093
Huntingdonshire 73956
Peterborough South 74884
Peterborough North 75368
Fenland 74473
West Norfolk 77328
Kings Lynn 75098
Breckland 76464
South Norfolk 77156
South Norwich 75780
North Norwich 71686
Broadland 72063
North Norfolk 73394
Great Yarmouth 71807

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Essex

Clacton & Harwich 77200
North Essex 77901
Colchester 77971
Braintree 77340
Uttlesford 77677
Maldon 74587
Chelmsford 75657
Harlow 71474
Epping Forest 75082
Brentwood 72423
Billericay & Wickford 76401
Rochford 71943
Southend East 72845
Southend West 72468
Basildon 74130
Castle Point 73563
Thurrock 75935

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Jun 23, 2016 2:06:20 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

Hertfordshire Minimum Change

South West Hertfordshire 72404
Hemel Hempstead 73526
Watford 72878
Hertsmere 74831
St Albans 72916
Welwyn Hatfield 71527
Broxbourne 72664
Hitchin & Harpenden 71690
Stevenage 72347
Hertford & Stortford 72539
North East Hertfordshire 73908




Hertfordshire Radical

Hertfordshire South West 72404
Hemel Hempstead 73526
Watford 73567
Hertsmere 75274
St Albans & Harpenden 71636
Welwyn Hatfield 72450
Cheshunt 73464
Hitchin & Letchworth 71767
Stevenage 72347
Hertford & Broxbourne 72077
North East Hertfordshire 72718

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Jun 23, 2016 2:12:27 GMT AustralianSwingVoter said:

Suffolk

Waveney 78220
Suffolk Coastal 74449
Mid Suffolk 75295
Bury St Edmunds 72493
Forest Heath 72967
Ipswich 76284
Babergh 76509

[Adrian]

If you or I were the boundary god, we could impose Thurrock-Canvey on the minions below, but we're not, so there's no chance.

[Adrian]

All my Eastern plans up now. Somehow I missed Herts out as I was going along. ukelect.wordpress.com/tag/eastern-england/

[right]

Mar 11, 2016 0:08:55 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I'd say that makes sense, though I can see arguments for moving Whitehouse ward instead. Either way one half of Castle Hill is stranded on the other side of a railway track from the rest of the seat. It'd be much easier if you could use the county boundaries, which divide Castle Hill along that line.

Castle Hill or Whitehouse will have a big effect on the way Ipswich leans politically.  If it is Castle Hill then Ipswich - would switch from Labour leaning to Tory leaning.  A strong Tory incumbent could also make themselves felt on the borough ward boundaries over time (an area where the Tories have always been outsmarted so there's probably plenty of room even if they neutralise the bias) and switch "Fortress Ipswich" into a blue trending council - as unthinkable as this seems at the moment.  This could have a massive effect on the political dynamics in eastern Suffolk where Ipswich has kept the Labour flame alive.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hertfordshire without areas (Cheshunt) recommended to go into Greater London by the Report of the Royal Commission on Local Government in Greater London
10.15

Essex without areas (Chigwell) recommended to go into Greater London by the Report of the Royal Commission on Local Government in Greater London
16.56 (72490)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hertfordshire without areas (Aldenham, Bushey, Chorleywood, Elstree, Northaw & Cuffley, Potters Bar, Rickmansworth, Watford and Watford Rural) considered but declined for inclusion in Greater London
7.61 (70821)

Essex without areas (Waltham Holy Cross) considered but declined for inclusion in Greater London
16.34 (76010)

HETFORDSHIRE + ESSEX 23.95

[Pete Whitehead]

Possibly the most pointless maps to appear on this thread, but anyway you know Chigwell UD included Loughton, not just one ward of Chigwell Village

[greatkingrat]

To be fair to him, the maps do include Loughton together with Chigwell and Buckhurst Hill.

[Pete Whitehead]

It didn't look like they do but you could be right - the choice of an extremely pale blue makes it difficult to tell

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Essex without areas (Chigwell and Waltham Holy Cross) considered but declined for inclusion in Greater London

Tendring 77200
North Essex 77901
Colchester 77971
Maldon 74587
Braintree 77340
Uttlesford 74941
Epping & Harlow 77929
Chelmsford 73716
Brentwood 75510
Billericay 73233
Rochford 73452
Southend East 78292
Southend West 75015
Basildon North & Wickford 78566
Basildon South & Canvey 74574
Thurrock 75935

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Essex without areas (Chigwell) recommended to go into Greater London by the Report of the Royal Commission on Local Government in Greater London

Harwich 71822
Clacton 74607
Colchester 72295
Maldon 73480
Braintree 72842
Uttlesford 71084
Chelmsford 73653
Harlow 71474
Brentwood & Epping 72885
Billericay 71106
Wickford 72379
Rochford 71234
Southend East 71455
Southend West 75015
Basildon 71441
Canvey 71880
Thurrock 73677

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hertfordshire without areas (Aldenham, Bushey, Cheshunt, Chorleywood, Elstree, Northaw & Cuffley, Potters Bar, Rickmansworth, Watford and Watford Rural) considered but declined for inclusion in Greater London
and
Essex without areas (Chigwell and Waltham Holy Cross) considered but declined for inclusion in Greater London

Berkhampstead & Harpenden 72348
Hemel Hempstead 73005
St Albans 75560
Welwyn Hatfield 73101
Stevenage 71345
Hitchin & Letchworth 75449
Hetford & Hoddesdon 77192
Stortford & Uttlesford 77262
Braintree 74362
Witham 75502
Harwich 74325
Clacton 74607
Colchester 73922
Maldon 71137
Harlow 72541
Brentwood & Epping 75259
Chelmsford 75657
Billericay 76401
Rochford 73452
Southend East 78292
Southend West 75015
Basildon 71441
Canvey 71880
Thurrock 73677

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hertfordshire without areas (Cheshunt) recommended to go into Greater London by the Report of the Royal Commission on Local Government in Greater London

Dacorum 72404
Hemel Hempstead 78498
Watford 77989
Hertsmere 76293
St Albans 75902
Welwyn Hatfield 76449
Hitchin & Letchworth 75224
Stevenage 73869
Stortford 71224
Hertford & Hoddesdon 77449

[AustralianSwingVoter]

ZOMBIE REVIEW

gains 1 seat from zombie review

NEW SEAT
Harpenden
created from all Hertfordshire wards of Mid Bedfordshire & Harpenden (Cadwell and Hitchwood, Offa & Hoo and Harpenden East and Harpenden North and Harpenden South and Harpenden West and Kimpton and Wheathampstead)
gains Ashridge and Watling and Woodhall Farm from Hemel Hempstead
gains Redbourn and Sandridge from St Albans
gains Hatfield Villages and Welwyn East and Welwyn West from Welwyn Hatfield
gains Codicote and Knebworth from Stevenage

ZOMBIE REVIEW SEATS OUT OF QUOTA
Changes to seat to get on quota

Cambridge
gains Queen Edith's from South East Cambridgeshire

North West Norfolk
gains St Lawrence from Wisbech & Downham Market

Norwich South
gains Old Costessey from South East Norfolk

South East Norfolk
loses Old Costessey to Norwich South

Ipswich
gains Tower from Central Suffolk & North Ipswich

North Bedfordshire
loses Ampthill Houghton Conquest & Haynes to Mid Bedfordshire & Harpenden

Mid Bedfordshire & Harpenden
RENAMED Mid Bedfordshire
loses all Hertfordshire wards of Mid Bedfordshire & Harpenden (Cadwell and Hitchwood, Offa & Hoo and Harpenden East and Harpenden North and Harpenden South and Harpenden West and Kimpton and Wheathampstead)
loses Caddington to South West Bedfordshire
gains Cranfield & Marston Moretaine and Flitwick from South West Bedfordshire
gains Ampthill and Houghton Conquest & Haynes from North Bedfordshire

South West Bedfordshire
loses Cranfield & Marston Moretaine and Flitwick to Mid Bedfordshire & Harpenden
gains Bramingham from Luton North & Dunstable

Hemel Hempstead
loses Ashridge and Watling and Woodhall Farm to Harpenden

North Hetfordshire
loses Buntingford to Hertford & Stortford

SEATS WITHIN QUOTA CHANGED

South East Cambridgeshire
loses Queen Edith's to Cambridge

Wisbech & Downham Market
loses St Lawrence to North West Norfolk

Central Suffolk & North Ipswich
RENAMED Central Suffolk
loses Tower to Ipswich

Luton North & Dunstable
loses Bramingham to South West Bedfordshire

St Albans
loses Redbourn and Sandridge to Harpenden
gains Brookmans Park & Little Heath and Welham Green from Welwyn Hatfield

Welwyn Hatfield
RENAMED Hertford & Welwyn Hatfield
loses Hertford Rural North to Hertford & Stortford
loses Hatfield Villages and Welwyn East and Welwyn West to Harpenden
loses Brookmans Park & Little Heath and Welham Green to St Albans
loses Northaw & Cuffley to South East Hertfordshire
gains Hertford Sele and Hertford Bengeo and Hertford Castle and Hertford Kingsmead from Hertford & Stortford

South East Hertfordshire
loses Great Amwell and Hunsdon and Stanstead Abbots to Hertford & Stortford
gains Northaw & Cuffley from Welwyn Hatfield

Hertford & Stortford
RENAMED East Hertfordshire
loses Hertford Sele and Hertford Bengeo and Hertford Castle and Hertford Kingsmead to Welwyn Hatfield
gains Great Amwell and Hunsdon and Stanstead Abbots from South East Hertfordshire
gains Buntingford and Hertford Rural North and Mundens & Cottered from North Hertfordshire

Stevenage
loses Codicote and Knebworth to Harpenden

SEATS UNCHANGED FROM ZOMBIE REVIEW

South West Cambridgeshire
St Neots & Huntingdon
North West Cambridgeshire
North East Cambridgeshire
Peterborough
South West Norfolk
North Norfolk
Mid Norfolk
Norwich North
Great Yarmouth
Waveney
Suffolk Coastal
Bury St Edmunds
South Suffolk
West Suffolk
Bedford
Luton South
South West Hertfordshire
Watford
Hertsmere
Harwich & Clacton
Colchester
North East Essex
Saffron Walden
Braintree & Witham
Maldon
Chelmsford
Billericay & Great Dunmow
Harlow
Epping Forest
Brentwood & Ongar
Rayleigh & Wickford
Rochford & Southend East
Southend West
Castle Point
Basildon & Thurrock East
Thurrock

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Oh and from that exercise, for the Letchworth and Hitchin Reunification Society (LAHRS) here is a fairly good attempt at minimum change outside Hitchin & Letchworth

South West Hertfordshire 72404
Hemel Hempstead 71879
Watford 72878
Hertsmere 74831
St Albans 74403
Harpenden 71884
Hertford & Welwyn Hatfield 71931
Broxbourne 72557
Stortford & Ware OR East Hertfordshire 71408
Stevenage 71525
Hitchin & Letchworth 75530



and Pros and Cons versus the other Letchworth and Hitchin Reunification plans
Firstly, considering that they are all fairly similar, the improvements on areas that are the same in all of the plans;

Number 1, My plan doesn't abolish South West Hertfordshire and replace it with a weird Three Rivers based seat (although Pete Whitehead calls it South West Hertfordshire) and also ruin Watford and Hemel Hempstead and worst of all, pairs Tring & Berkhampsted with Harpenden which is even worse than the current Hitchin & Harpenden which is a high bar to pass.

Number 2, My plan doesn't split Welwyn and Hatfield because there is no way this would be acceptable, considering that the LA is on quota it is difficult enough to not make a seat conterminous with it.

Feb 28, 2016 22:58:51 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

This one is going to have to be filed under 'just a bit of fun' although quite alot of it is what I'd like to do if I could. its obviously going to be a non-starter from a minimal change point of view and splitting Welwyn Hatfield district between three seats when it can clearly stand on it's own is not going to fly, but anyway...



Watford loses Oxhey itself and the Three Rivers wards to the south while gaining Bedmond, unitying almost all of Abbots Langley parish in one seat. c.71,300
SW Herts is now all of Three Rivers less Abbots Langley parish plus Oxhey from Watford and Bushey from Hertsmere. 74,968
Hemel Hempstead is all of that town plus Kings Langley, Bovingdon etc and the 'Primrose Hill' section of Gade Valley ward. c. 72,800
NW Herts is the remainder of Dacorum plus the Harpenden, Redbourn, Wheathamstead and Sandridge (and etc) parishes of St Albans. 72,884
St Albans loses Marshalswick North to the above seat and Bedmond/Primrose Hill and gains the Aldenham East & West and Elstree wards from Hertsmere. 73,003 (I didn't want to go as far south as Elstree but Marshalswick North had to be donated to NW Herts or it would have caused all sorts of problems into other seats)
Hatfield comprises the remainder of Hertsmere (Borehamwood, Shenley adn Potters Bar) with the 'Greater' Hatfield area. 72,327
Hertford combines the 7 wards of Welwyn Garden city with Hertford and Ware plus 3 rural wards in between. 72,650
Stevenage loses Datchworth and gains the two wards of Old Welwyn. 73,652
Hitchin reunites Hitchin with Letchworth & Baldock. 71,767
East Herts combines the rural Eastern section of North Herts district including Royston with Bishops Stortford, Sawbridgeworth and the rural East and North of East Herts district. 73,135
Broxbourne is as before 72,664

But for having to split a ward (and the nightmare new wards we have in Three Rivers make this desirable as much as necessary) I'd be pretty happy with this, but I don't think I'll spend a day in Luton trying to sell it

and

Apr 18, 2016 22:19:36 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It certainly isn't and I'm not even sure the Hitchin & Letchworth seat is an improvement when it stretches to include Buntingford. Regarding St Albans and Hatfield, there are good links between the two towns, but it doesn't make sense to detach St Albans from so much of it's natural hinterland to force that link.
I did show my non-minimum change plan earlier in the thread, before the boundary assistant site was updated and I've made a couple of changes (which presumably Adrian was alluding to).

Hemel is just under quota and I'd suggest adding Sarratt parish to make up the numbers (I think just the PD covering Sarratt itself, ie just the area north of the M25 would be enough actually)
Hatfield Villages being detached is a change from my previous plan, which enables me to keep Marshalswick North in St Albans instead of Elstree.  Most of that ward is fairly separate from Hatfield proper and the A1 is a logical boundary so while it's not ideal, I reckon it to be an improvement on my earlier plan. 
There's no need for the Hitchin seat to extend further East than Baldock

I am going to assess these as one considering how similar they are, so;

Number 1, My plan doesn't split Hertsmere, even though it isn't the best LA it is 1 ward short of quota and if you want Hitchin & Letchworth reunited then ripping every other seat is not going to work, if we want Hitchin & Letchworth to actually reunite it has to have as smaller repurcussions to the current seats as possible.

Apr 18, 2016 17:04:08 GMT Adrian said:

Pete and I are honorary members of the Letchworth and Hitchin Reunification Society (LAHRS), I see. Here's my attempt.

Hertsmere 75219
Watford 71882
Three Rivers 73862
Hemel 73862
Harpenden 72026
Broxbourne 72664
St Albans 73012
Welwyn 72614
Stevenage 72367
North Herts 73020
East Herts 73203

By far the worst of the plans, the only improvement on Petes plans is that it doesn't split Hertsmere, apart from that it is worse in every way possible including;

Number 1, look at Stevenage, I mean seriously, adding Kimpton?
Number 2, it makes the already ugly North Hertfordshire (Harpenden & Tring) even worse by adding the weird tail south of St Albans

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Feb 29, 2016 22:44:37 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Feb 29, 2016 13:48:34 GMT mattb said:

There's quite a nice scheme if you allow "East Thurrock & Canvey" - OK the road link passes outside the constituency but it is arguably still pretty coherent. (also includes South Benfleet).
Means you can have a united Basildon; a nice compact Rayleigh (incl north of Castle Point & South WF) and a nice Billericay (incl Wickford & rural south Chelmsford boro').
Also keeps Brentwood & Ongar together and avoids crossing western boundary of Southend.

Sorry, but that's dreadful. As you say, East Thurrock and Canvey doesn't have a direct road link and in fact you have to go right into Basildon to get from one to the other. Canvey may be odd and insular, but it's got much better links to the mainland bits of Castle Point and any map ought to reflect that. And putting bits of Castle Point into Rayleigh is a bad idea because a) the ward patterns don't conform terribly well to the component parts of Castle Point and b) all the major transport connections in that bit of Essex go east-west, not north-south. The A127 is a strong boundary and I think it should be followed to the maximum extent possible.

But what about my plan, putting the north part of Castle Point into Southend meaning that there is no Seat with a wierd long tail

Clacton & Harwich 77200
North Essex 77901
Colchester 77971
Braintree 77340
Uttlesford 77677
Maldon 74587
Chelmsford 75657
Harlow 71474
Epping Forest 75082
Brentwood 72423
Billericay & Wickford 76401
Rochford 71943
Southend East 72845
Southend West 72468
Basildon 74130
Castle Point 73563
Thurrock 75935