Adrian
Co-operative Party
Posts: 1,742 
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Post by Adrian on Sept 13, 2016 0:01:14 GMT
Selly Oak and Halesowen is quite something. As you can tell from the name. Yardley includes Hall Green but not Sheldon, which is bundled into 'Chelmsley Wood & Solihull North'. I haven't seen it but it just sounds dreadful. You on dial-up? the map's about 20 cm up this page. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 13, 2016 0:01:18 GMT
Selly Oak and Halesowen is quite something. As you can tell from the name. Yardley includes Hall Green but not Sheldon, which is bundled into 'Chelmsley Wood & Solihull North'. I haven't seen it but it just sounds dreadful. The seat itself isn't too bad but the name is horrible. |
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Sept 13, 2016 0:28:11 GMT
The centre of Wolverhampton is in a seat called Wednesfield & Willenhall. Discuss. The wrong name for it, but i'm from Wednesfield so I approve. What makes me angry is this: Why is number 11 in a different constituency than it's neighbours?? (it's in south wolvo)  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 1:00:19 GMT
I haven't seen it but it just sounds dreadful. You on dial-up? the map's about 20 cm up this page. No, I've been looking at other parts of the country. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 13, 2016 1:07:08 GMT
The centre of Wolverhampton is in a seat called Wednesfield & Willenhall. Discuss. The wrong name for it, but i'm from Wednesfield so I approve. What makes me angry is this: Why is number 11 in a different constituency than it's neighbours?? (it's in south wolvo) Now that is some ultra-precision gerrymandering.  |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 13, 2016 4:40:10 GMT
Ladywood is an utter abomination.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,455
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Post by iain on Sept 13, 2016 5:16:31 GMT
NuL gains Kidsgrove but loses the villages at the west of the borough; looks like a hook around Stoke. Most of Stoke is put into two seats, the S.W. is bundled into an odd thing called West Staffordshire. Which includes the above villages from NuL. But Stoke was so easy ... All you had to do was push Stoke South down to Stone ... |
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Post by Right Leaning on Sept 13, 2016 7:54:17 GMT
For West Midlands conurbation, a quick calculation using "Electoral Calcus" has the current 21 Labour and 7 Tories changing to 17 Labour and 8 Tories.
Tories pick up Coventry West & Meriden. Labour also lose Birmingham Hall Green, Walsall North, and Dudley North which are abolished.
Interesting both Edgbaston and Coventry South go from the most marginal to safer Labour seats in the conurbation.
Northfield maintains it's position as a marginal seat.
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Post by afleitch on Sept 13, 2016 7:56:58 GMT
Did someone put Birmingham through a spiralizer?
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 13, 2016 8:05:37 GMT
Did someone put Birmingham through a spiralizer? NO SPLITS. I've just done a very loose notional for CHELMSLEY WOOD AND SOLIHULL NORTH CHELMSLEY WOOD AND SOLIHULL NORTH BC Con 33.3% (9/9) Lab 19.8% (9/9) LDm 17.9% (4/9) Grn 15.9% (8/9) UKIP 12.9% (5/9) I need to reapportion and stuff but fycking hell. I want to start drinking now. |
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rocky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 122 
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Post by rocky on Sept 13, 2016 10:34:13 GMT
For West Midlands conurbation, a quick calculation using "Electoral Calcus" has the current 21 Labour and 7 Tories changing to 17 Labour and 8 Tories. Tories pick up Coventry West & Meriden. Labour also lose Birmingham Hall Green, Walsall North, and Dudley North which are abolished. Interesting both Edgbaston and Coventry South go from the most marginal to safer Labour seats in the conurbation. Northfield maintains it's position as a marginal seat. Surely Northfield would have a notional labour majority of around 7000 there are other more Marginal seats in brum than that. |
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Post by Right Leaning on Sept 13, 2016 10:39:39 GMT
For West Midlands conurbation, a quick calculation using "Electoral Calcus" has the current 21 Labour and 7 Tories changing to 17 Labour and 8 Tories. Tories pick up Coventry West & Meriden. Labour also lose Birmingham Hall Green, Walsall North, and Dudley North which are abolished. Interesting both Edgbaston and Coventry South go from the most marginal to safer Labour seats in the conurbation. Northfield maintains it's position as a marginal seat. Surely Northfield would have a notional labour majority of around 7000 there are other more Marginal seats in brum than that. Not based on the figures in Electoral Calcus for the 2015 election. But those figures may be flawed. All four wards are mnarginal, although at local level, Northfield and Bournville are more inclined Tory, Longbridge probably trends Labour, Mosely/Kings Heath was Labour/LD marginal, but is now safer Labour. Labour tends to do better at parliamentary level than locally I suspect. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 13, 2016 10:49:34 GMT
Surely Northfield would have a notional labour majority of around 7000 there are other more Marginal seats in brum than that. I make it around 3,100 on a first raw cut. Erdington is lab by 2,700 or so. Selly Oak and Halesowen *SPIT* is Con by 1,000 or so. |
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rocky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 122
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Post by rocky on Sept 13, 2016 10:52:49 GMT
Had a quick look at those figures they must be wrong they have the conservatives doing better in Northfield and Bournville than they did in the local elections can't be true, same applies for Moseley although that maybe true if some lib deems voted Tory nationally there.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 13:49:19 GMT
Erdington loses Tyburn and gains Oscott and... er... Pheasey Park Farm from Walsall. Robbo will be pleased.  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 13:52:49 GMT
The 7 unchanged seats in the WM:
Birmingham Hodge Hill
Burton
Cannock Chase
Coventry North East
North Shropshire
South Staffordshire
Sutton Coldfield
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 13, 2016 15:44:01 GMT
Did someone put Birmingham through a spiralizer? NO SPLITS. I've just done a very loose notional for CHELMSLEY WOOD AND SOLIHULL NORTH CHELMSLEY WOOD AND SOLIHULL NORTH BC Con 33.3% (9/9) Lab 19.8% (9/9) LDm 17.9% (4/9) Grn 15.9% (8/9) UKIP 12.9% (5/9) I need to reapportion and stuff but fycking hell. I want to start drinking now. A five-way marginal.  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 13, 2016 15:51:49 GMT
NO SPLITS. I've just done a very loose notional for CHELMSLEY WOOD AND SOLIHULL NORTH CHELMSLEY WOOD AND SOLIHULL NORTH BC Con 33.3% (9/9) Lab 19.8% (9/9) LDm 17.9% (4/9) Grn 15.9% (8/9) UKIP 12.9% (5/9) I need to reapportion and stuff but fycking hell. I want to start drinking now. A five-way marginal. This constituency might help to raise the appalling turnout in the Chelmsley Wood area. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2016 16:33:31 GMT
Ladywood is an utter abomination. When I saw earlier Andy had listed the wards in the Birmingham seats I assumed including Tyburn in Ladywood was a mistake. I didn't imagine it was possible. The Boundary commission certainly like to push the boundaries of what's possible |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 13, 2016 16:35:08 GMT
Erdington loses Tyburn and gains Oscott and... er... Pheasey Park Farm from Walsall. Robbo will be pleased. He will be pleased won't he? He always identified more twith that area of Birmingham more than Walsall. He might not like it if he gets a Tory MP though (Which I would think is possible) |
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