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Post by greenhert on Jul 31, 2016 14:36:25 GMT
My finalised plan for Leeds, Bradford, and Calderdale:
1. Brighouse & Sowerby (74,587). As the current Calder Valley constituency minus Hipperholme & Lightcliffe ward but plus Sowerby Bridge ward.
2. Halifax (78,151). Loses the Calderdale ward of Sowerby Bridge but gains the Bradford ward of Wyke.
3. Keighley (76,636). Gains Wharfedale ward.
4. Shipley (71,379). Loses Wharfedale ward but gains Thornton & Allerton ward.
5. Bradford West (74,305). The Bradford wards of Clayton & Fairweather Green, Queensbury, Great Horton, Wibsey, Royds, Toller, and Heaton.
6. Bradford East (72,529). As Bradford East minus Idle & Thackley ward but plus City and Manningham wards.
7. Pudsey (78,030). The Leeds wards of Pudsey, Horsforth, Calverley & Farsley, and Bramley & Stanningley, plus the Bradford ward of Idle & Thackley.
8. Morley (77,642). The Leeds wards of Morley North/South, Middleton Park, and Ardsley & Robin Hood, plus the Bradford ward of Tong.
9. Elmet & Rothwell (77,287). Unchanged.
10. Leeds North West (73,429). Gains Guiseley & Rawdon ward.
11. Leeds North East (78,304). Gains Hyde Park & Woodhouse ward.
12. Leeds South East (76,213). As Leeds East plus Burmantofts & Richmond Hill ward.
13. Leeds South West (76,459). The Leeds wards of City & Hunslet, Beeston & Holbeck, Farnley & Wortley, Armley & Kirkstall.
The constituencies which end up being abolished in this plan are Leeds Central, Leeds West, Bradford South, and Morley & Outwood. Leeds South West replaces both Leeds Central and Leeds West ipso facto. Bradford West will also have very different boundaries to the current Bradford West here.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 31, 2016 19:21:15 GMT
My finalised plan for Kirklees and Wakefield:
1. Huddersfield (76,540). Gains Lindley ward.
2. Colne Valley (78,384). Loses Lindley ward but gains Denby Dale ward.
3. Batley & Spen (75,961). Unchanged.
4. Dewsbury (76,667). Loses the Kirklees ward of Denby Dale and gains the Wakefield ward of Ossett.
5. Wakefield (74,408). The Wakefield wards of Wakefield East/North/South/West, Horbury & South Ossett, Stanley & Outwood East, and Wrenthorpe & Outwood West.
6. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford (78,097). Unchanged.
7. Hemsworth (72,647). Loses Wakefield South ward and gains Wakefield Rural ward.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 31, 2016 20:31:56 GMT
My plans for North Yorkshire (specific plans where two Selby wards are joined with them to make a plan separating North Lincolnshire and Yorkshire viable)
1. Harrogate & Knaresborough (77,397). Loses the Harrogate wards of Pannal, Claro, and Killinghall, and gains the Harrogate ward of Ribston and the Selby wards of Tadcaster and Appleton Roebuck & Church Fenton.
2. Skipton & Ripon (77,485). Gains the Harrogate wards of Ouseburn, Pannla, Claro, Killinghall, and Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale, and loses the Craven wards of Bentham, Upper Wharfedale, Hellifield & Long Preston, Settle & Ribblebanks, Penyghent, and Ingleton & Clapham.
3. Richmond & Northallerton (78,257). As the Richmond (Yorks) constituency plus the Craven wards of Bentham, Upper Wharfedale, Hellifield & Long Preston, Settle & Ribblebanks, Penyghent, and Ingleton & Clapham, but minus the Hambleton wards of Great Ayton, Stokesley, and Hutton Rudley.
4. Scarborough & Whitby (78,307). Gains the Hertford and Filey wards but loses the Danby ward.
5. Thirsk & Malton (77,993). Gains the Hambleton wards of Great Ayton, Stokesley, and Hutton Rudley, and the Scarborough ward of Danby, but loses the Scarborough wards of Hertford and Filey.
6. York Outer (75,778). Unchanged.
7. York Central (71,586). Unchanged.
If the allowed deviance was 10% rather than 5% this would be a lot easier. The disruption caused to rural North Yorkshire constituencies is significant in places and therefore a Lincolnshire-East Yorkshire constituency of some kind (even it only includes the Isle of Axholme for example) appears inevitable.
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YL
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Post by YL on Aug 1, 2016 17:53:33 GMT
My plans for North Yorkshire (specific plans where two Selby wards are joined with them to make a plan separating North Lincolnshire and Yorkshire viable) 1. Harrogate & Knaresborough (77,397). Loses the Harrogate wards of Pannal, Claro, and Killinghall, and gains the Harrogate ward of Ribston and the Selby wards of Tadcaster and Appleton Roebuck & Church Fenton. 2. Skipton & Ripon (77,485). Gains the Harrogate wards of Ouseburn, Pannla, Claro, Killinghall, and Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale, and loses the Craven wards of Bentham, Upper Wharfedale, Hellifield & Long Preston, Settle & Ribblebanks, Penyghent, and Ingleton & Clapham. 3. Richmond & Northallerton (78,257). As the Richmond (Yorks) constituency plus the Craven wards of Bentham, Upper Wharfedale, Hellifield & Long Preston, Settle & Ribblebanks, Penyghent, and Ingleton & Clapham, but minus the Hambleton wards of Great Ayton, Stokesley, and Hutton Rudley. 4. Scarborough & Whitby (78,307). Gains the Hertford and Filey wards but loses the Danby ward. 5. Thirsk & Malton (77,993). Gains the Hambleton wards of Great Ayton, Stokesley, and Hutton Rudley, and the Scarborough ward of Danby, but loses the Scarborough wards of Hertford and Filey. 6. York Outer (75,778). Unchanged. 7. York Central (71,586). Unchanged. If the allowed deviance was 10% rather than 5% this would be a lot easier. The disruption caused to rural North Yorkshire constituencies is significant in places and therefore a Lincolnshire-East Yorkshire constituency of some kind (even it only includes the Isle of Axholme for example) appears inevitable. Yes, I think that trying to separate the East Riding from Lincolnshire just causes too much disruption, unless you're prepared to try some really fine ward splitting in the East Riding so that you don't need to borrow bits of North Yorkshire. (In principle it's possible, as the East Riding and Hull UAs together are just over the minimum for six seats.) So I think the Isle of Axholme in a Goole-based seat is the way to go, even if it doesn't look great on the map. |
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on Aug 1, 2016 18:13:59 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Aug 2, 2016 9:12:18 GMT
And the advantage of your plan, Adrian, is that it does not split up the town of Grimsby when the aborted 2013 review's constituencies in Humberside did end up splitting the town of Grimsby. |
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Post by YL on Aug 4, 2016 7:39:20 GMT
What I meant is that if you look at the communication links the Isle of Axholme is better linked to Scunthorpe to the east and into South Yorkshire to the west rather than into the East Riding to the north. Humberside really was a rubbish idea, and I wish we could get rid of its ghost in this process, but unfortunately the numbers don't work out well for doing so. I had a Goole & Axholme seat which was identical to your Goole (when there's a cross-county seat, I prefer to acknowledge both counties in the name) in a plan I posted earlier in this thread, so I certainly agree it's the best solution for this review. Your Grimsby area looks better than mine, but it's going to be dependent on the Commission accepting a split ward. |
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Post by John Chanin on Aug 4, 2016 8:31:02 GMT
Goole & Axholme looks inevitable to me, for East Yorkshire reasons rather than Lincolnshire reasons. I have it too. The problem is more with Grimsby/Cleethorpes. They are really the same town with an electorate of just under 100,000. You can try and extend the existing Grimsby seat, which makes the curious Cleethorpes sest that links areas north and south through the Wolds. Or more sensibly you can have Grimsby South & Cleethorpes, and Grimsby North & Barton, which I prefer, as did the zombie review.
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Post by islington on Aug 4, 2016 8:56:44 GMT
Since we're comparing approaches to the Grimsby area -
Scartho used to be a separate village and still has something of that character. Although housing development has now joined it to Grimsby, I think it is reasonable to treat it as relatively peripheral to the town and if you exclude it, you can draw a 'Grimsby and Cleethorpes' seat that includes the body of both towns and comes in at 75028. This leaves Scartho and Humberstone to go into a straggling 'Brigg' seat (or it might be called 'N Lindsey'). I posted the full plan, with map, back on 22 Jun (p11). I think this is the best solution in the context of the current review (that's 'best' as in 'least unsatisfactory').
In the longer term, there is an excellent case for reviewing the regional boundaries for future reviews so that the N Lincs and NE Lincs UAs are treated with E Mids rather than Y&H. This would certainly facilitate the drawing of sensible boundaries in this area.
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Post by Adrian on Aug 4, 2016 10:33:30 GMT
Scartho would be my preference too (for excluding from Grimsby) but the numbers are tight in my plan because I don't want to needlessly split Axholme.
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Post by YL on Aug 4, 2016 17:29:23 GMT
Since we're comparing approaches to the Grimsby area - Scartho used to be a separate village and still has something of that character. Although housing development has now joined it to Grimsby, I think it is reasonable to treat it as relatively peripheral to the town and if you exclude it, you can draw a 'Grimsby and Cleethorpes' seat that includes the body of both towns and comes in at 75028. This leaves Scartho and Humberstone to go into a straggling 'Brigg' seat (or it might be called 'N Lindsey'). I posted the full plan, with map, back on 22 Jun (p11). I think this is the best solution in the context of the current review (that's 'best' as in 'least unsatisfactory'). I agree it's a good solution for that narrow area but I think it has a number of problems elsewhere: - the splitting of the Isle of Axholme, which is already being treated somewhat badly by being used to make the numbers up in a cross-county [1] seat; - the treatment of the Hull urban area, with a "rurban" seat extending from parts of Hull proper out to rural areas of the East Riding; alternatives which put the whole of Axholme with Goole allow the main urban area (i.e. the city plus the five wards immediately to the west from Cottingham to Hessle) to be neatly divided into three, with various ways of achieving this (I'm not particularly advocating the one I posted way back); - it disturbs the satisfactory (except for the name of one of them) and in quota East Yorkshire and Beverley & Holderness seats; again plans which don't split Axholme can leave these unchanged. As either Grimsby or Cleethorpes needs to be split anyway (unless you cross the regional boundary) I don't think the advantages of one particular way of doing it outweigh the problems in the rest of the area. [1] It's cross-county by basically any definition of "county" other than Humberside necromancy. |
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Post by islington on Aug 5, 2016 19:33:50 GMT
YL -
Thanks for this, it's given me food for thought: especially, I agree it's unfortunate to disrupt the existing E Yorks and Beverley seats when they are both within range.
The trouble is, they're both above average size; and this creates problems because as a whole, Humberside (which I agree we effectively need to recreate, whatever we think of it as a local government unit) has 661995 electors for an entitlement of 8.85. So it's already on the small side for 9 seats, and once we preserve E Yorks and Beverley we're left with 508293, or 6.80, which is much tighter for 7 seats than Humberside was for 9. I'm not saying it can't be done, but with numbers like these you have to create seat after seat at the lower end of the range and it inevitably limits your options. Even if you take out Hull/Haltemprice for 3 below-average seats, what's left is still a very tight 3.88 for 4 seats.
On balance, therefore, I still prefer an approach (originally put forward by Pete Whitehead) that spreads the numbers more evenly across the Humberside area. This allows an Axholme ward to be linked with Scunthorpe, which, although (I concede) not a great fit in itself, gives just enough extra voters to open up helpful possibilities south of the Humber that are not available otherwise.
So I think we'll have to agree to differ about this, but thanks for prompting me to look the area again.
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on Aug 5, 2016 20:42:09 GMT
Spreading the numbers more evenly does allow a nice Hull East seat. So, swings and roundabouts.
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Post by greenhert on Aug 5, 2016 21:26:32 GMT
Worth saying that my Hull South proposal is largely based on Hull East, with only one ward removed and two wards added (this is enough to shift it into a southern seat in the context of Kingston-Upon-Hull however; see also Thanet East becoming Thanet South).
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 18, 2016 10:36:48 GMT
ZOMBIE REVIEW
ZOMBIE REVIEW SEATS OUT OF QUOTA
Changes to seat to get on quota
Kingston upon Hull Central
gains Newington from Kingston upon Hull West & Haltemprice
Scarborough & Whitby
loses Danby to Thirsk & Malton
gains Filey and Hertford from Thirsk & Malton
Elmet
loses Wetherby to Selby & Ainsty
gains Burmantofts & Richmond Hill from Leeds East
Leeds North
gains Alwoodley from Otley
Bradford Central
RENAMED Bradford South
loses Manningham and Toller to Shipley
gains Clayton & Fairweather Green from Shipley
gains Queensbury from Halifax
Keighley
loses Worth Valley to Calder Valley
loses Ikley to Otley
gains Bingley from Shipley
Halifax
loses Queensbury to Bradford Central
gains Hipperholme & Lightcliffe from Calder Valley
Colne Valley & Denby Dale
loses Lindley to Huddersfield
gains Crosland Moor & Netherton from Huddersfield
Normanton & Pontefract
loses Pontefract North to Leeds South East & Castleford
gains Altofts & Whitwood from Leeds South East & Castleford
Barnsley South
loses Dearne North and Dearne South to Doncaster North
gains Dodworth and Kingstone from Sheffield North & Dodworth
Sheffield North & Dodworth
RENAMED Sheffield North & Penistone
loses Dodworth and Kingstone to Barnsley South
gains Penistone West from Sheffield Hallam & Penistone
Sheffield Hallam & Penistone
RENAMED Sheffield Hallam
loses Penistone West to Sheffield North & Dodworth
Sheffield Central
gains 1/2 of Nether Edge from Sheffield Heeley
Sheffield Heeley
loses 1/2 of Nether Edge to Sheffield Central
Doncaster Central
RENAMED Doncaster
gains Bentley from Doncaster North
Doncaster North
RENAMED Dearne Valley
loses Bentley to Doncaster Central
gains Dearne North and Dearne South from Barnsley South
SEATS WITHIN QUOTA CHANGED
Goole & Howden
loses South Hunsley to Kingston upon Hull West & Haltemprice
gains Derwent from Selby & Ainsty
Kingston upon Hull West & Haltemprice
loses Newington to Kingston upon Hull Central
gains South Hunsley from Goole & Howden
Thirsk & Malton
loses Filey and Hertford to Scarborough & Whitby
gains Danby from Scarborough & Whitby
gains Marston Moor and Ouseburn and Ribston and Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale from Selby & Ainsty
Selby & Ainsty
RENAMED Selby & Wetherby
loses Derwent to Goole & Howden
loses Marston Moor and Ouseburn and Ribston and Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale to Thirsk & Malton
gains Wetherby from Elmet
Leeds East
loses Burmantofts & Richmond Hill to Elmet
Leeds South East & Castleford
loses Altofts & Whitwood to Normanton & Pontefract
gains Pontefract North from Normanton & Pontefract
Otley
loses Alwoodley to Leeds North
gains Ikley from Keighley
Shipley
RENAMED Bradford North & Shipley
loses Bingley to Keighley
loses Clayton & Fairweather Green to Bradford Central
gains Manningham and Toller from Bradford Central
Calder Valley
loses Hipperholme & Lightcliffe to Halifax
gains Worth Valley from Keighley
Huddersfield
loses Crosland Moor & Netherton to Colne Valley & Denby Dale
gains Lindley from Colne Valley & Denby Dale
SEATS UNCHANGED FROM ZOMBIE REVIEW
Grimsby South & Cleethorpes
Grimsby North & Barton
Scunthorpe
Kingston upon Hull North
Beverley & Holderness
East Yorkshire
Richmondshire
Skipton & Ripon
Harrogate & Knaresborough
York Central
York Outer
Leeds Metropolitan & Ossett
Batley & Morley
Leeds West, Pudsey & Tong
Bradford East & Horsforth
Spen Valley
Dewsbury
Wakefield
Barnsley North & Hemsworth
Sheffield South East
Rotherham & Sheffield East
Rotherham North
Rother Valley
Don Valley
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Post by YL on Aug 20, 2016 7:21:34 GMT
SEATS UNCHANGED FROM ZOMBIE REVIEW ... Leeds Metropolitan & Ossett ... I presume this is not intended as a serious proposal. |
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Post by markgoodair on Aug 20, 2016 7:42:09 GMT
SEATS UNCHANGED FROM ZOMBIE REVIEW ... Leeds Metropolitan & Ossett ... I presume this is not intended as a serious proposal. No for any sane individual. |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 20, 2016 12:58:05 GMT
I presume this is not intended as a serious proposal. No for any sane individual. I'm doing minimum change from Zombie Review, I concur that this seat is horrid, BUT they did propose it |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 21, 2016 11:33:38 GMT
For Humberside, Adrian's plan is clearly the nicest and the ward split is fairly simple. I don't think the BCE would go for it, but I think that's a shame. (As an aside, I don't think splitting the Isle of Axholme is a deal-breaker, so personally I'd be inclined to shift a ward along to make the split less tight.) Alternatively, here's an attempt to do it with a compact Grimsby & Cleethorpes seat. Some similarities to seats previously suggested by Pete and ASV, but I think perhaps slightly neater looking on a map. The downside is that all three Hull seats spill over the boundaries (in fairly reasonable ways, but nevertheless it's more crossings than you need) and that Newland ward is out on a bit of a limb.  Grimsby & Cleethorpes (75,820) - Scartho is the ward left out Brigg & Immingham (76,837) - including Broughton & Appleby makes for a neater boundary. Alter the name according to taste - I'm sure 'Humberside South' would be a local favourite. Scunthorpe (74,405) Haltemprice & Boothferry (74,732) - has to take one Hull outer suburban ward. Willerby & Kirk Ella works better with other seats than Hessle. Hull West & Hessle (71,446) - if you prefer, you can swap Myton and Newland, but either way the latter ward is out on a limb. Hull East (75,345) - not popular in Hedon, but the industrial development spans both sides of the boundary and it's a shared employment focus. Hull North & Cottingham (71,747) - if you're going to keep Hessle in a constituency name, you can't ignore Cottingham. Beverley (71,338) Bridlington & Holderness (71,117) |
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 26, 2016 17:01:18 GMT
I've changed my mind and decided to post this little monstrosity, but it's going in this thread rather than the main Y&H one. AustralianSwingVoter might find it useful. Sheffield, Barnsley and Rotherham with no split wards:  Sheffield Moorlands & Penistone 73,202 Sheffield, Hillsborough & Ecclesall 71,212 Sheffield, Heeley 78,366 Mosborough & Maltby 74,601 Rotherham South & Attercliffe 74,452 Sheffield Central & Masbrough 77,301 Ecclesfield & Wentworth 76,792 Barnsley North 71,128 Barnsley South & Wath 71,775 Rotherham North 72,254 Note that Rotherham town is split into four. The Moorlands & Penistone seat is not connected by road, and Ecclesall & Hillsborough only just is. Calling all Psephologists, can you improve on YL Sheffield no-split plan, if possible then please try and see if you can do better, if needed, you can cross the boundaries into Doncaster and West Yorkshire but preferably don't Please try, and see if you can beat me! Ah, I see YL spilled the beans! I had this variant, also unposted except in pm's  |
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