Slovak parliamentary election, 2016

[Deleted]

Miroslav Beblavý steps down as #SIET deputy leader in protest against the negotiations with Smer.

[Sibboleth]

Its massive off topic but Eritrea basically ranks second in the 'states actively attempting to be a dystopia' stakes.

[john07]

Mar 8, 2016 22:56:30 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Mar 8, 2016 17:03:24 GMT greenchristian said:

I think the key difference between our views of the refugees is that you view them as a faceless mass coming here to steal our jobs, and I view them as a group of ordinary people who are trying to deal with incredibly horrible situations (the second biggest country people are escaping from is Eritrea, where the government is a massively repressive dictatorship).

I understand most of those escaping from Eritrea are doing so to evade conscription. 100 years ago last week this country introduced conscription. Its as well for us that those subject to it didn't flee en masse to some other country to seek 'asylum'

I know loads of Greeks who live in the UK to avoid doing National Service. They could defer it if they were in higher education. I think at one stage you could avoid National Service if you stayed out of Greece until you were 28. Hence students would duck and dive and take course after course.

Then they raised the cut off age to around 64! One of my ex-students was born in the Sudan while his father was working on a construction project and obtained a Sudanese passport. This allowed him to return to Greece while he was 'draft dodging' without being arrested. That is provided he entered using his Sudanese passport and joined the long queues. Had he used his Greek passport he would have been arrested on arrival and taken to a military prison.

Of course some years ago, plenty of Americans moved to Canada or Sweden to avoid 'the draft'.

[Deleted]

Mar 9, 2016 20:47:58 GMT john07 said:

Mar 8, 2016 22:56:30 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I understand most of those escaping from Eritrea are doing so to evade conscription. 100 years ago last week this country introduced conscription. Its as well for us that those subject to it didn't flee en masse to some other country to seek 'asylum'

I know loads of Greeks who live in the UK to avoid doing National Service. They could defer it if they were in higher education. I think at one stage you could avoid National Service if you stayed out of Greece until you were 28. Hence students would duck and dive and take course after course.

Then they raised the cut off age to around 64! One of my ex-students was born in the Sudan while his father was working on a construction project and obtained a Sudanese passport. This allowed him to return to Greece while he was 'draft dodging' without being arrested. That is provided he entered using his Sudanese passport and joined the long queues. Had he used his Greek passport he would have been arrested on arrival and taken to a military prison.

Of course some years ago, plenty of Americans moved to Canada or Sweden to avoid 'the draft'.

Please take all this non-Slovakia related stuff elsewhere.

[maxque]

Mar 9, 2016 21:25:33 GMT @odo said:

Mar 9, 2016 20:47:58 GMT john07 said:

I know loads of Greeks who live in the UK to avoid doing National Service. They could defer it if they were in higher education. I think at one stage you could avoid National Service if you stayed out of Greece until you were 28. Hence students would duck and dive and take course after course.

Then they raised the cut off age to around 64! One of my ex-students was born in the Sudan while his father was working on a construction project and obtained a Sudanese passport. This allowed him to return to Greece while he was 'draft dodging' without being arrested. That is provided he entered using his Sudanese passport and joined the long queues. Had he used his Greek passport he would have been arrested on arrival and taken to a military prison.

Of course some years ago, plenty of Americans moved to Canada or Sweden to avoid 'the draft'.

Please take all this non-Slovakia related stuff elsewhere.

If you have issues with threads drinfing on other subjects, you're really on the wrong forum. It happens all the time.

[Deleted]

Mar 9, 2016 23:11:17 GMT maxque said:

Mar 9, 2016 21:25:33 GMT @odo said:

Please take all this non-Slovakia related stuff elsewhere.

If you have issues with threads drinfing on other subjects, you're really on the wrong forum. It happens all the time.

Yeah, I see that. It is just that there is a tactically complex government formation game ongoing. You kind of lose track of it with all the filling. 

[Deleted]

Saw one interesting piece - though not unbiased - which explained the current game by seeing it as the oligarchs trying to prevent a reformist middle class backed government, and scrutiny of the business practices. They would especially like to keep out former anti-Communist crusader Daniel Lipšic from NOVA, who made his career on uncovering dirty deals in connection with the post-Communist privatization etc.

SDKÚ-DS was oligarch controlled and after Smer took over backed by different oligarchs they have spread out and backed various centre-right parties as SDKÚ imploded. The author of this sees #SIET and Most-Híd as the most oligarch controlled because they are tied to just one oligarch each. They are not owned by oligarchs (though #SIET may come close), but would need new funding if they cut they ties. Smer is intertwined with both the state apparatus and their own oligarch network.

Oligarch sponsored parties:
Smer (though with substantial funds of their own)
Most-Híd
#SIET
KDH


Membership or small business sponsored :
OĽaNO-NOVA
"The core of" SaS (= individual non-leadership SaS candidates have had oligarch funding)
MKP


Self-financed:
SNS (all the money they got their hands on in 2006-10)
We are Family (Kóllar being independently wealthy - his ties are to the mafia, not the oligarchs )

[Deleted]

Several Slovak media today received an anonymous email with photos of Boris Kollár posing with convicted mafia boss Juraj "Goofy" Ondrejčák (currently serving a 16-year sentence) and his right hand Matej "the Cat" Šalaga, who got seven years behind bars a couple of years ago.

Boris Kollár claims they were taken on a vacation he took with his friend Tomas Rajecký ten years ago and they met those guys by a coincidence not knowing they were mobsters.

"I meet with everybody, even people from the underworld, unfortunately you bump into them, but they are not my friends".

SaS boss Richard Sulík dismiss the importante of the pics. "What is worse? When someone has stolen two billion a year, or some pictures with someone, who is sitting in jail?"

[Deleted]

SNS has now categorically turned down a right government, which therefore would have 78 seats against it. SNS chairman Andrej Danko says he doesn't want to sit in a coalition with parties like OĽaNO and We are Family.

Most-Híd chairman Béla Bugár now calls on "all mainstream parties" (to which he apparently includes SNS) to be "prepared to accept the compromises that are necessary for the formation of a stable government". And says he expects an invitation from Smer. Also refuses to vote for a caretaker government or early elections, which he claims would lead to destabilization of the country.

So it looks like a pro-oligarch coalition. With anti-oligarch OĽaNO and We are Family as the parties SNS and Bugár couldn't accept.. SaS with oligarch influence on some MPs is tellingly not mentioned by either of them (guessing here, but I assume that is why SaS is more acceptable than the economically less right wing OĽaNO).

The husband of Smer MEP Monika Flašíková Beňová announced on his Facebook profile that he expects a new government by the end of March.
"New government and probably already in March and it will be Prime Minister Robert Fico, SNS, Most, #SIET and Smer. Yet a few ritual dances, a few offended MPs, a few wise comments and it is done. About 80 deputies behind it."

We will see if he is right, but it sounds most likely. Interesting if #SIET will split over this. Could give a couple of extra MPs to OĽaNO.

Such a coalition would have 40 OĽaNO/SaS MPs against it + the 14 fascists and 11 We are Family. Leaving 85, so 85/65, but then perhaps a few #SIET MPs defecting to the opposition giving the "about 80".

EDIT: Speculation some MPs might also defect from Most-Híd as well. Bugár is working on a deal with MKP about a joint list next time, which would make it possible to ally with SNS without losing Hungarian votes.

[Deleted]

The opposition leaders all seem to assume the Smer, SNS, Most, #SIET coalition is a done deal now, with Most agreeing with Smer-SNS first and #SIET then joining. Both Igor Matovic and Súlik accuse Béla Bugár of playing a double game and deceiving his voters. They both promise a fair and constructive opposition (but what else would they say.. its going to be a shitfest).

NOVA leader Daniel Lipšic: "A conglomerate of oligarchs is starting to emerge. And we must continue and not give in. It's a fight for good and the elections have shown that we are more and more. It is a struggle for the return of the country to the hands of the people."

This could of course be tactical announcements to put the maximum pressure on Bugár and Radoslav Procházka from #SIET, but likely to no avail.

[Deleted]

Former Deputy Chairman Miroslav Beblavý and Katarína Macháčková have said they will leave #SIET if it goes into coalition with Smer, so that is at least two of their ten seats they lose. While MKP has canceled negotiations about a joint list with Most-Hid, which makes it more risky for Bela Bugar to team up with Smer.

Coalition talks ongoing between Smer, #SIET, Most-Hid and SNS:

#SIET has some very specific demands:

- new bankruptcy legislation
- create conditions for the establishment of liability of politicians
- reducing taxes on personal and corporate income
- extension of receiving daily allowances from three to five years.
- introduction of service packages for businesses, incl. cancellation of flat rate expense allowances for craftsmen and farmers.
- rapid construction of the Upper Nitra R2 and R3 in the Orava region, and R4 Zemplín.
- increased food self-sufficiency of Slovakia
- increase in public financing of education by 30 percent over the next four years
- shortening waiting times for medical procedures and placement in social service.
- the participation of the opposition in control of the authorities, especially in healthcare
- shutting down the prosecutor investigating team, which works on the gorilla scandal (!)

Most has some vague stuff about the fight against corruption/better enforcement of anti-corruption measures, establishment of minority regions and a more pro-European foreign policy.

SNS:
- relief trade status (not sure what thats about)
- change the law on political parties.
- former Speaker and deputy leader of Smer Pavol Paska is kept out of the cabinet

[Deleted]

I haven't updated this, but things have progressed fast:

The four party leaders from Smer, SNS, #SIET and Most-HId + two others from each party meet at 3PM CET to hammer out the details - still unclear what sort of economic policies they will pursue.

Two other #SIET MPs, Simoa Petrík and Zuzana Zimenová, says they can not support a Smer government, while two more say they are "in doubt", so only 6 of 10 MPs behind the government - and could go down to 4. Ironically they only need two #SIET MPs for a majority of 76, but there must be a breaking point somewhere.

Most-Híd's only MEP Zsolt Simon, who is also an MP, will leave them, but no news of any other of their MPs doing so.

So down to 10 Most-Híd and 6 #SIET in favor. Giving an 80 seat majority.


In other news:

Ján Figeľ has resigned as KDH leader (which is a bit surprising, he seemed to practically own the party, but I guess some oligarch did..).

Some vote buying scandal in eastern Slovakia with middlemen buying Smer votes for cigarrettes in Roma areas.

[Deleted]

Status is that no. 2,4,10 have already defected, 11 has said she will if they go into coalition with Smer, while 8 and 9 are "considering", consulting with their party chapters etc. #SIET only has 10 seats and since Zimenová is an MP one of 5-7 must have declined to take his or her seat, but dunno which one.

In Most-Híd no. 3 has stated he will leave if they enter a coalition with Smer and SNS, but haven't formally defected yet. 




#SIET MP and Vice-Dean of International relations at the University of Economics in Bratislava Katarína Cséfalvayová, one of the last party faithful.

[Deleted]

First post election poll. #SIET and We are Family would be out and Most-Híd right on the threshold neck and neck with MKP (SMK in Slovak). Smer + SNS would get 75 seats on this distribution - and a clear majority if Most-Híd fail to get in. So it looks like early elections would benefit Fico.

I could see MKP starting to negotiate with OĽaNO-NOVA about running on a joint list with these numbers - both Hungarian parties failing to get in would be too risky for the minority. 

The poll has 21.4% for the two far right parties, which would both gain. Far right/right wing populists were at 23.3% in the election (incl. We are Family), and 25.8% in this one with a higher concentration on the extreme right.

[Deleted]

The four parties have agreed on the program priorities for 2016-2020, and will discuss the details in their groups tomorrow:

The headlines are fight against corruption, strengthening the business environment, and the welfare state. There are some surprises. A strange mix of judicial independence and strong state measure 8as one would expect from this mix of authoritarians and centre-right types).


Establish an anti-corruption program:

- New bankruptcy law

- Consistent application of the principles of open government

- A constitutional law on documenting the origin of assets

- Tangible personal responsibility of those managing public resources

- Legal regulation with ban on recruitment of those convicted for corruption and unethical benefits

- Improvement and expansion of the system of mandatory publication of contracts

- Anti-corruption clause in the draft laws

- Strengthening the protection of the public interest in contractual-legal relations

- Professionalization of the state administration and clear definition of political nominations


Taxes, levies and public finances:

- Reduction of corporate tax to 21 percent and an annual review of further reductions (gift to #SIET)

- Achieving a balanced budget by 2020 and maintaining budgetary discipline,

- Eliminating tax licenses by 01/01 2018

- Raising the limits for the application of flat rate expenses for the self-employed

- Continuation of the special levies and taxes on regulated industries, possibility of extension to other sectors

- Reassessment of tax and accounting legislation to promote investment


Regional differences:

- Extending the scope of the law on support for the least developed districts to other districts (= Hungarian areas)

- Eligibility for tax breaks for small businesses to create new jobs with an emphasis on the least developed districts

- Special incentives for estblishing spas

- Development of transport infrastructure - especially expressways R2, R3, R4, R7

- Rethinking cancellation of Intercity lines

- Preparing the ground for the establishment of national air and sea carriers (lakes, rivers etc.)


Police and Courts:

- Institutional strengthening of the independence of the control body of the armed corps

- Strengthening parliamentary control in naming the president of the police

- Limiting the possibility of appeals to the courts (= no political intervention)

- Increasing public scrutiny of the judiciary and disciplinary proceedings of judges

- Strengthening the civil element in the Judicial Council of the Slovak Republic

- Increased personal responsibility for the decisions of judges

- The introduction of substantial measures to increase the efficiency of the courts in order to speed up court proceedings

- Efforts to enforce constitutional law on the formation of the Constitutional Court

- Prepare a new law on intelligence services and their control


Education, Sports and Culture:

- Participation of workers' education bodies in formulating the education policies of the Slovak government

- Approval of a long-term vision for the content of education and training

- Significant increase in investment in education

- Fundamental changes in the educational system

- Finding new sources of funding for sport and culture by activating private funds

- Increased support for the restoration of national cultural monuments (SNS pet issue)

- Strengthening civic education and the fight against extremism and totalitarianism (with SNS in government.. LOL!)

- Further improvement of the system of dual language education (Most-Hid)


Minorities:

- Preservation of limited-grade schools in linguistically mixed areas (grade schools only for Hungarians)

- Adoption of a law on the establishment of a fund for the financing of minority cultures

- Changing the methodology of teaching Slovak in minority schools


Health service:

- Control of health care boards made available to the opposition (have been run like small fiefs by Smer appointees)

- A visible shift in the quality of health are and in a transparent management of public resources

- Limit profit based health insurance companies (#SIET)

- The introduction of the DRG system in full and the full application of eHealth

- Shortening waiting times for medical and nursing procedures

- The introduction of transparent rules for payments by patients


Social affairs:

- Establishing 100,000 new jobs

- Unemployment below 10%

- Raising the minimum wage (SNS)

- Adjustment of pension indexation

- Christmas allowance for retirees

- Focusing on maternity, parental allowance, child care allowance


Combating usury: (the term is SNS from the vocabulary)

- Stable energy prices (SNS pet issue - but likely necessary for Smer to keep their voters happy as well)

- A ban on privatization of strategic state property (SNS pet issue)

- Increasing the share of Slovak products on the market (SNS pet issue)

[Deleted]

There are of course some obvious fiscal problems with this "lets cut taxes, spend a lot of money and balance the budget" approach, designed to make everybody happy by promoting their special interest and pet issues.

[Deleted]

One analysis of why it all went so fast is both the parties and their oligarch backers feared that President Kiska would have denied Fico a new mandate, waited for Sulík to fail (given SNS did not want him) and then appointed a "government of experts", which could scrutinize oligarch business interests, form the nucleus of a new broad tent anti-oligarch centre-right presidential party to run in 2019, when Kiska leaves office, and thereby change the balance of power in Slovakian politics.

Fico only has a mandate to Friday and the big migrant crisis EU summit starts on Thursday, so they need to agree on a coalition tomorrow.

This assumes that nobody - apart from the fascists - really want to risk an unpredictable new election in the current situation - especially not #SIET and Most-Híd.

[Deleted]

Distribution of portfolios reported by Slovak news agency TASR to be:

Smer: PM, foreign affairs, finance, interior, health, culture and labour.

SNS: Agriculture and education.

Defense and economy undecided between Smer and SNS (they will get one each)

Most-Híd: Justice and environment.

#SIET: Postal services & transport (LOL)

So 8 to Smer, 3 to SNS, 2 to Most-Híd and 1 to the #SIET (after losing a third of their seats). Looks like a small cabinet of 14, but they may add a couple of portfolios in the end. As interior is much more important than justice Smer has all the important ones except either economy or defence.

[Deleted]

The coalition has got 81 seats behind it. It turns out Zimenová has left #SIET, but she is still just a substitute MP as no. 11 on their list. One more MP is still considering.

So #SIET MPs Miroslav Beblavý, Katarína Macháčková and Simona Petrík are now Independents and #1 substiture Zuzana Zimenová has also left the party (and apparently she will still get a seat if a #SIET MP were to leave Parliament, which is weird...).

Igor Janckulík is still "considering", but their other six MPs are now behind the coalition.

Zsolt Simon from Most-Híd is now an Indie. Everybody else stays put. František Šebej, who is the "Slovak Godfather" behind the party and seen as a guarantee for it being binational, has finally accepted they go into coalition with Smer (which he hates), and that as well as lots of minority friendly/development of the southern regions stuff seems to have defused further internal opposition.

There is a petition before the public prosecutor to start proceedings to get the fascists declared unconstitutional. If they end up being banned by the courts (which is apparently not unlikely) Kotleba & Co. will lose their seats and the government would then have a very solid majority - but that is in the future.

[Devil Wincarnate]

How curious. Katerina Csefalvayova has a very Hungarian name with a Slovak feminine marker.