Slovak parliamentary election, 2016

[Deleted]

57.5%

[Deleted]

65.2% counted. Still three parties just around the threshold:

[Deleted]

86.5%

KDH and the Hungarians still just below the threshold:

[Deleted]

91% counted.



KDH still just below.

Looks like 4 of 6 parties are out of parliament and 4 new ones in - 3 of them newly founded and ye old SNS. 3 right wing populist/fascist and one a designer product called #Network. Yuck. The two parties going out are both Christian Democrats, too many of those in Slovak politics.

[Deleted]

Smer at 28.6% with 94.4% counted. No one had predicted they could drop below 30%.

Robert Fico says he will try to form a new government:
"It will not be easy, I say that clearly, but we need to do everything possible to decrease the likelihood of early elections and experiments."

But it looks like the opposition is in the mood for experiments, still this result could easily lead to new elections pretty soon.

[Deleted]

Final result:



So the options are either a grand coalition with both Smer and Ol'ano (+ likely Most Hid), or a ramshackle 76 seat centre-right/right coalition with everything except Smer, the Hungarians in Most Hid and the literal fascists. Though including SNS in a "centre-right" coalition is obviously quite problematic. New elections seem more likely than any of those.

Ol'ano has presented themselves as reformists and corruption fighters so a coalition with Smer could undermine their support. The big question is if they would be willing to risk that.

[greenhert]

There seems to be little room for real progressive or socialist forces in Slovakia-the Slovakian Greens only achieved 0.67% and the Slovakian Communists only achieved 0.62%, not even enough to get back their 17,000 Euro deposit

[The Bishop]

Smer has quite a few socialists in it, though - the parallels with British Labour are certainly there.

[Deleted]

Turnout basically unchanged. 59.82 vs. 59.11 last time. So it wasn't due to non-voters becoming attracted to protest parties and deciding to vote. Given the country's relatively decent economy and the very tough stance of all mainstream parties on immigration this is remarkable, even for Eastern Europe.

Two sane, moderate and serious parties above 4%, but not 5%, while two right win populist parties and literal fascists made it. The high threshold backfired this time.
And raise the threshold to 7 or 8% and it gets even worse with no centrists in at all, but still both the most extreme far right parties. Its a good example to use against people who claim higher thresholds provide more stability. It only really works if you go as high as 10%. The German success of keeping extremists out of the Bundestag with their 5% cut-off has made it far too popular.

[Richard Allen]

So lets see, mainstream parties whip up an anti-immigration frenzy and fringe parties who take an even harder line reap the benefits. We are supposed to be surprised by this?

[Deleted]

Mar 6, 2016 13:55:18 GMT Richard Allen said:

So lets see, mainstream parties whip up an anti-immigration frenzy and fringe parties who take an even harder line reap the benefits. We are supposed to be surprised by this?

The basic pattern is well known, but the extent of it is surprising given the context, yes. No one with any knowledge of Slovakia had predicted this.

[Deleted]

Whether all the tough anti-refugee rhetoric backfired for Fico by increasing the level of fear, or whether the move to the far right had been even bigger if he hadn't offered a tough stance against EU and forced multiculturalism is a trickier question than you might think in a Slovakian context. Its far from given the main factor was Smer voters going directly to the far right in droves, even if that is the easy explanation ("bigoted, backwards blue collar types goes full fascist" etc.) which lazy journalists will run with. Some Conservative/Christian Democrats may as well have been disappointed by their parties relatively "weak" stance on refugees, while Smer voters tired of corruption and bad schools/healthcare (or just Robert Fico..) went to the centre-right, so it partly evened each other out.

The "collapse" of the Smer vote in the final days (really just a 5% drop) may as well be due to corruption stories as migrants.

Most-Hid, KDH and #Siet had talk about forming an electoral alliance like the one between the slightly more right wing OĽaNO and NOVA, but they failed to agree (#Siet being a KDH breakaway means there is some bad blood), the three parties have basically the same economic policies, so it would have been a logical solution. If Fico calls new elections I think such a "United Moderates" alliance will become a reality.

[Deleted]

Results from the EC in English (got an interactive district map)

volbysr.sk/en/data02p.html

[Devil Wincarnate]

Mar 6, 2016 13:55:18 GMT Richard Allen said:

So lets see, mainstream parties whip up an anti-immigration frenzy and fringe parties who take an even harder line reap the benefits. We are supposed to be surprised by this?

This is all Fico's doing.  Forming a coalition with the Slota mob was a signal that certain things were no longer beyond the Pale.  His behaviour towards the Hungarian minority has been a disgrace.

He is reaping the whirlwind.

[Deleted]

SaS chairman Richard Sulík is going for a five party coalition with SNS and the four centre-right parties incl. Most Hid (=76 seats), saying the important thing is whether SNS leader Andrej Danka and Most-Híd boss Béla Bugár can work together. Also saying that Boris Kollár and We are Family can support a right-wing government, but not be in it. Which could open up for a minority government without Most Hid with outside support from Kollár (but that would be very shaky).

Despite their history and continued ideas of nationalization of infrastructure and key industries etc. it seems both sides consider SNS to be sufficiently pragmatic to be a possible coalition partner, and more dependable than Kollár. So the Hungarians and the Slovak nationalists needs to be in the same government.. would have been unthinkable some years ago, but maybe if SNS have moderated enough.

#SIET have said they are willing to work with Fico, so the left/centre alternative is Smer, SNS, #SIET (=74) + one more party, which would then have to be either pariah Kollár, or Most Hid. Fico would prefer the latter (and may not want to work with Kollár at all). So again SNS + Hungarians.

A genuine grand coalition with Smer and the economic right seems to be ruled out. But if SNS and Most Hid are not ready to be in the same government, either with the economic right or Smer, then that is the only real option.

#SIET seems to be the kingmakers, but only if SNS and Most Hid can cooperate. Most Hid will most likely prefer to work with the right.

The coming EU chairmanship and the humiliation of a major political crisis during it will most likely mean flaky oligarch Kollár won't be considered. So SNS/Most Hid in either a Smer led or right wing coalition, or if that is impossible: new elections. With a grand coalition as a distant fourth option.

[Deleted]

President Andrej Kiska has authorized Fico to form a new government, saying that its a complex situation and he will proceed systematically, meaning Richard Sulík from SaS gets the next shot if Fico fails to secure a majority within 30 days. Sulík doesn't want to be PM (he wants to "fix" the Minister of Finance), so most likely a right wing coalition would be led by one of the two OľaNO-NOVA leaders Igor Matovic or Daniel Lipšic, the former is the boss, but his personal economy is "dubious" (do not know the details), whereas Lipšic from junior partner NOVA is one of the most trusted politician in Slovakia and would likely be more acceptable. Lipšic is a former head of the Legal Office in the Justice Department, who made his name targeting officials from the former communist regime for their crimes and as an anti-corruption activist (which then makes it a bit problematic he is now allied with Matovič..).

Fico was in Brussels today, but Kiska has talks with all party leaders except the Fascists, not outright condemning them but saying it would serve no purpose talking to them and that "there needs to be an opposition."

Most-Híd has repeated they do do want to govern with SNS, which makes most options impossible. Both Fico and Sulík repeats that new elections should not take place within the first two years, but observers still think that snap elections is the most likely outcome. There is a possibility for a caretaker government to be put in place during the EU chairmanship, but it can still be voted down in parliament so would have to be led by someone a majority could tolerate.

Broad agreement that Smer-OľaNO-NOVA isn't possible both because of ideology and the barrage of mutual corruption allegations between Fico and Matovic during the campaign + Lipšic hates ex-Commies and there are quite a few of them in Smer.

[Deleted]

MKP leader József Berényi has stepped down after they failed to pass the threshold, saying he expects early elections and a new party leader should have time to prepare. KDH deputy chairman Peter Belinský has also stepped down, their chairman Ján Figeľ has "offered his mandate" and a party council on March 19 will decide whether there should be a new leader. But KDH is a bit of a personality cult by now, so I expect him to stay on.

[Deleted]

No Romas elected, so the 400,000+ strong minority is unrepresented. Nine were running.

OĽaNO NOVA had the most Roma candidates (3) - one of them the current government plenipotentiary for Roma communities Peter Pollak, who will now step down. So they will have to use a non-MP in that function.

Other parties with Roma candidates:
Most-Híd 2 (one of them Štefan Vavrek, who came 18th on their list as the best placed Roma) 
SMER-SD 1
#SIET 1
KDH 1
We are family - Boris Kollár 1

We are Family must be less anti-Roma than I thought. Given the social background of SaS its unsurprising they had no Roma candidates (and same obviously goes for the Nats and the Fascists  ).

Pollák got the most votes and increased by 2000+ from his previous 6,072.

[greenchristian]

Mar 7, 2016 13:51:13 GMT @pjones said:

Mar 6, 2016 13:55:18 GMT Richard Allen said:

So lets see, mainstream parties whip up an anti-immigration frenzy and fringe parties who take an even harder line reap the benefits. We are supposed to be surprised by this?

Were the mainstream parties 'whipping up' the 'anti-immigration frenzy'? Isn't it more likely that the anti-immigration feeling was caused by huge hordes of illegal immigrants pouring into Europe? Given the scale of the problem wouldn't it have been rather silly of mainstream parties to ignore the issue?

On the other hand, you could frame the issue as "large numbers of genuine refugees trying to escape a brutal civil war by coming to Europe", and avoid any hint of whipping up an anti-immigration frenzy.

[Sibboleth]

Its possible for their both to be a genuine political issue wrt migration and also for mainstream parties to fyck up playing with fire over it. I suspect.